Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[dl003]

I suspect the range extender was very little effort by Tesla, and I suspect they also have the data to show that virtually nobody is going to buy it. Its likely included just so people don't complain about the range.
I know the US is different, but here in the UK, people routinely demand capabilities from vehicles that they never use. There are so many people driving large 4x4 oversized vehicles in Chelsea, that they are colloquially known as 'Chelsea tractors'.
Chelsea is in the heart of London and is flat as a pancake :|

I think it's brilliant. It increases the capability of the car without increasing the price for people who don't need it.

 

[Drumheller]

I suspect the range extender was very little effort by Tesla, and I suspect they also have the data to show that virtually nobody is going to buy it. Its likely included just so people don't complain about the range.
I know the US is different, but here in the UK, people routinely demand capabilities from vehicles that they never use. There are so many people driving large 4x4 oversized vehicles in Chelsea, that they are colloquially known as 'Chelsea tractors'.
Chelsea is in the heart of London and is flat as a pancake :|

The UK is about 94,000 square miles. Arizona, the state I live in in the USA, is over 113,000 square miles. There are 49 other states.

 

[FEERSUMENDJIN]

It’s about the towing. That will cut range by quite a bit. 500 would maybe give you 250 if pulling a 11k trailer.

yup niche.

 

[cab]

I do think that most of the "disappointment" around the Cybertruck can be traced back to one number: 4680. The darn 4680 cells have clearly been a bit of a thorn in Tesla's side for a while. We saw it first when battery day happened and then...crickets. They finally had to "fess up" when they ended up implementing "plan b" at GigaTexas for the Model Y - retrofitting in a 2170 cell solution there when 4680s weren't ready. Then there was the Tesla semi (not really sure it was supposed to use 4680, but regardless, not viable for that yet either it seems).
They FINALLY seem to have the dry process manufacturing figured out (we assume...not a lot of details there around it all), but the darn chemistry seems to be a big "meh". The latest "Cyber cell" improvements appear to have not come from chemistry but cell design so here we are with the Cybertruck. An underperforming cell in terms of energy density means you either deliver less range or add more cells...or come up with the "range extender" kludge (ouch Tesla, really?).
My HOPE is that main pack actually has "room" for more cells - call it 10% more - (this is likely wishful thinking) AND then can get a 10% improvement in chemistry over the next year. That would put the truck at 410+ miles of range w/o the range extender (which, I predict, will only be in production for a short time - if at all - before they pull it). The 410 number won't satisfy everyone for all use cases, but it may end up in a sweet spot that is "good enough". Indeed, Tesla may then revert to having the dual motor be 300 miles (less than it has now) and the "big battery" option will be 410. This allows them to cut costs on the base battery size by removing some cells there. Indeed, the "early adopters" will end up a with a dual motor truck that ends up with "more range" (at 340) than where the "base" dual motor ends up (at 300), but less than the "upcharge battery" 410 mile version..(aka early adopters, please buy as many cybetrucks as possible now!).

 

[Stretch2727]

Based on the data from a few of the videos seeing a pretty big improvement in usable energy from each 4680 cell over the Model Y structural battery pack.

Correct me if I am wrong on any of the data but I think it is directionally correct. (The Model Y was hard to find as there are many different conclusions on number of batteries and capacity.)

 

[Webeevdrivers]

For all the people upset at no 500mile range, you do realize your need to go 500miles WITHOUT STOPPING is a niche thing yes?
Sure, there may be 5% of potential buyers who for some reason genuinely need a 500 mile range pikcup truck. Thats fine, but I'd rather Tesla make a decent, affordable truck for the other 95%.
I have a 2022 model Y performance. If you tried to sell me an extra 50 miles for $1,000 I wouldn't click buy. The range is good enough, MORE than good enough for my needs. I don't think I'm a rarity.
Dont forget, tesla have driving metrics on ALL its customers. They have hard data on how many super-long roadtrips people actually take...

Some of us tow. I suspect those are the ones that were hoping for 800 kilometres. But yah. If not for towing 550 kilometres would have been enough for us.

 

[FEERSUMENDJIN]

Different experiences and points of view possibly largely influenced by where someone lives. Here in the USA, I often do road trips. My most common trip is 1830 miles each way. At highway speeds in real world use, I can maybe get 220 miles out of my long range model y that had an epa range of 326 miles at delivery. My 100% yesterday displayed 275 miles with less than 50,000 miles on the odometer.

I desire a 500+ mile rated vehicle from Tesla because then I might actually achieve 300 miles of real world range on road trips.

I've been driving teslas long enough to realize range anxiety and perception often don't match reality but that perception may keep many truck buyers from purchasing. Here in Phoenix, many truck buyers desire to tow campers up to flagstaff in the summer. That's about 130 to 140 miles up a 6,000 feet elevation change with dips and rises along the way. I doubt any of the current cybertruck offerings could make that on a single charge without the range extender. That's a non starter for those truck owners.

4 superchargers along that route if your having any trouble. But I would think the dual motor would make it.

 

[FEERSUMENDJIN]

The UK is about 94,000 square miles. Arizona, the state I live in in the USA, is over 113,000 square miles. There are 49 other states.

and there are a gazillion superchargers

 

[Drumheller]

4 superchargers along that route if your having any trouble. But I would think the dual motor would make it.

The superchargers along that route do not have any pull through stations. I've driven that route probably over 100 times. In the heat of summer with my cabin cooling working hard, my model y will use about 60% to drive 2/3 of that route to visit some friends. I doubt any cybertruck will make it while towing in the summer without stopping to unhook the trailer and charge.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Won't range matter less in the future. As the supercharger network and other charging infrastructure increases across the globe, it will be a simple matter of stopping and charging.
Also charging technology will become much faster so charging we'll just be more like stopping for a cup of coffee or going to the bathroom this will negate the importance of 500 miles or better on a battery.

Here's an example. We just got back from a 3-day ski trip. We used about 150 mi of range to get to the ski area, both areas that we skied at had level two chargers. So all we did was pull our car into a level two charger spot, plug in, ski for the day and leave with a full charge again. This is becoming more and more common.

Not really. Tesla still builds very few trailer friendly stalls. So with anything but a small trailer one needs to park and disconnect the trailer somewhere. Easy with little trailers. Not so much with medium sized or bigger trailers.

 

[Drumheller]

and there are a gazillion superchargers

Have you driven across the USA?

 

[GhostSkater]

I do think that most of the "disappointment" around the Cybertruck can be traced back to one number: 4680. The darn 4680 cells have clearly been a bit of a thorn in Tesla's side for a while. We saw it first when battery day happened and then...crickets. They finally had to "fess up" when they ended up implementing "plan b" at GigaTexas for the Model Y - retrofitting in a 2170 cell solution there when 4680s weren't ready. Then there was the Tesla semi (not really sure it was supposed to use 4680, but regardless, not viable for that yet either it seems).
They FINALLY seem to have the dry process manufacturing figured out (we assume...not a lot of details there around it all), but the darn chemistry seems to be a big "meh". The latest "Cyber cell" improvements appear to have not come from chemistry but cell design so here we are with the Cybertruck. An underperforming cell in terms of energy density means you either deliver less range or add more cells...or come up with the "range extender" kludge (ouch Tesla, really?).
My HOPE is that main pack actually has "room" for more cells - call it 10% more - (this is likely wishful thinking) AND then can get a 10% improvement in chemistry over the next year. That would put the truck at 410+ miles of range w/o the range extender (which, I predict, will only be in production for a short time - if at all - before they pull it). The 410 number won't satisfy everyone for all use cases, but it may end up in a sweet spot that is "good enough". Indeed, Tesla may then revert to having the dual motor be 300 miles (less than it has now) and the "big battery" option will be 410. This allows them to cut costs on the base battery size by removing some cells there. Indeed, the "early adopters" will end up a with a dual motor truck that ends up with "more range" (at 340) than where the "base" dual motor ends up (at 300), but less than the "upcharge battery" 410 mile version..(aka early adopters, please buy as many cybetrucks as possible now!).

Actually no (so much for not posting here anymore)

The biggest change that happened is that they went from a double layer pack to a single layer one. Why? A few reasons

1 - They wanted to make the truck smaller, making it smaller and keeping the height you either mess up with the proportions with a higher roof angle, or you lose a lot of interior space and head room

2 - With the truck being smaller, there is less drag and weight, to the point that now a single layer 4680 gen 2 pack can achieve and surpass the 300+ miles target by quite a margin


So they went with a solution that is better to the vast majority of people but no higher range option without a somewhat janky extra battery on the bed

This also means that while we will probably see the range increase over time with latter 4680 versions, not 340 miles to 500 miles

By the way, it also chargers from 15 to 85% in 20 minutes or less, this is huge and a massive improvement compared to other EV trucks and even other Tesla vehicles, so the gen 2 4680s are finally showing what they can do

https://twitter.com/x/status/1730574894818087424

 

[mongo]

Based on the data from a few of the videos seeing a pretty big improvement in usable energy from each 4680 cell over the Model Y structural battery pack.

Correct me if I am wrong on any of the data but I think it is directionally correct. (The Model Y was hard to find as there are many different conclusions on number of batteries and capacity.)


View attachment 995421

Cell count provided by Hagerty is wrong, 1376 is the most likely match to what they said.

 

[Unpilot]

By the way, it also chargers from 15 to 85% in 20 minutes or less, this is huge and a massive improvement compared to other EV trucks and even other Tesla vehicles, so the gen 2 4680s are finally showing what they can do

This coupled with availability and continued expansion of the SC network show the insurmountable (and growing) lead Tesla has.

 

[Drax7]

Have you driven across the USA?

No , I fly

 

[Mengy]

Most of the future Cybertruck buyers don't know yet that they one day will be Cybertruck buyers.

I didn't really want a CT, I've never owned a truck in my life and I'm completely happy with my Model Y LR.

HOWEVER, after learning the details last night and watching some YouTubers show the CT in extreme detail this morning, I do indeed kind of want one now....

 

[Stretch2727]

Cell count provided by Hagerty is wrong, 1376 is the most likely match to what they said.

Ok even at 1376 it looks like a good improvement.

 

[KnowLittle]

Spent much of the morning watching the videos - The following conversation is a great addition to the Hagerty video - Especially the last 20 minutes where he talks about how he felt about the Cybertruck going into the endeavor -

 

[phantasms]

Of the three , this is the best CT video I watched. It even included lots of best-of-Tesla historical facts that I did not know, such as the S broke the safety scoring system by getting a 5.4 out of 5.

Very entertaining and informative. They even executed the sledgehammer test to prove Tesla’s claim, vs a stainless steel fridge.

Then they ran a 1400kg sled running at 33.5 km/hr against the side panel to show that the steel skin did not need bracing for safety, and commented that whereas other cars would be a write off, the CT looked like it just needed two new doors and airbags to get back on the road.

1 hour ago.

Lots of impressive facts presented. E.g.

I worked in the Hagerty media department until a few months ago [Thanks TSLA!]. We make the best videos!

 

[hitchhiker]

I suspect the didn't do the 500 mile version because it required 2 layers of batteries... so a different body/chassis design. We may see it some day, but releasing everything they can make with one body makes sense. I just wish they'd said that.