Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
That 30K and 78K delivery projection both look very reasonable.

30K next year is an average of 3K per month, which means with a linear ramp they should end Dec 2024 with a production rate of 7k to 8k. Not an easy task for any company.
Regardless if I want it or not, I will have to buy it if my reservation number gets called, just because who would turn that down? I could be the coolest kid in the neighborhood. That is, as long as it isn't the beast mode. This might be the only point that will convince my wife to let me buy one. Or that we don't have to take her model Y on unpaved dirt roads anymore.
 
Snow or crime are the only reasons I can think of in which garage space could be a dealbreaker. I hated living in the snow because I couldn’t keep my truck clean (yeah I’m that guy) and if there was that much crime in my neighborhood I’d move.

I can only pray they call my number soon and I will proudly display this work of art on my front sidewalk. I will not hide that beauty in the garage.

I’d prefer the dual motor but I suspect the beast will be the one they call me to take home. Sadly I want it too bad; I won’t be able to wait. First world problems.

Cheers to my fellow R112xxx hodlers!
 
Snow or crime are the only reasons I can think of in which garage space could be a dealbreaker. I hated living in the snow because I couldn’t keep my truck clean (yeah I’m that guy) and if there was that much crime in my neighborhood I’d move.

I can only pray they call my number soon and I will proudly display this work of art on my front sidewalk. I will not hide that beauty in the garage.

I’d prefer the dual motor but I suspect the beast will be the one they call me to take home. Sadly I want it too bad; I won’t be able to wait. First world problems.

Cheers to my fellow R112xxx hodlers!
Agreed. In Chicago it would look like this every morning for me. No thanks. Lol
IMG_0626.jpeg
 
Snow or crime are the only reasons I can think of in which garage space could be a dealbreaker. I hated living in the snow because I couldn’t keep my truck clean (yeah I’m that guy) and if there was that much crime in my neighborhood I’d move.

I can only pray they call my number soon and I will proudly display this work of art on my front sidewalk. I will not hide that beauty in the garage.

I’d prefer the dual motor but I suspect the beast will be the one they call me to take home. Sadly I want it too bad; I won’t be able to wait. First world problems.

Cheers to my fellow R112xxx hodlers!
Shouldn’t it be impervious to crime? I do have to park outside, although with the angle/height I could actually get it up my steep Bay Area driveway, if it is t too wide for the rock walls on either side.
 
  • Funny
Reactions: FireMedic
A good friend of mine is a department head at one of the local Tesla factories.

Today I texted him if he would pretty please give me a ride in his new “Beast”. He laughed, and said, he wants one BAD, but that Elon told them if they want one, “get in line with everyone else…”

To me, this puts to rest the concern that we are only seeing employee deliveries…he clearly expressed that he hadn’t heard of anyone in his circle being offered preferential access to purchase one.
 
No I haven’t- why would I ?

But I can check online - and a 1 ton PU truck is about $800 a week currently near me in Enterprise. A std SUV is $450 and F150 is $420. No doubt you can find better deals.

If you are going to use it twice a year, I’d not call it bloody expensive.
It depends on your definition of once a year. We typically take one trip a year towing our camper. BUT that trip is typically 6+ weeks and 10,000 miles. So $800/week is more than we typically spend for camping, food, admissions, and gas. Basically by renting a truck you are more than doubling our costs.
 
So what about Ford's home backup system? All you have to do is park next to the chicken coop.

Nikki Gordon-Bloomfield from Transport Evolved has had nothing but problems, but after working with Ford for many months she finally found the solution. She had to back the truck up next to the chicken coop to get it to work. Seriously. The chicken coop.

And even then it's not reliable. Those lazy chickens!

Essentially, this product relies on Bluetooth instead of communicating over the wire. We all know how flaky Bluetooth is. Plus Ford put the Bluetooth receiver in the wrong part of the truck so it's far away from where you plug it in to the system it needs to talk to. So she has to park in just the right spot for it to work.

Quotes from Nikki:
This product really wasn't ready for prime time.

What I think is really the problem here? It's an American truck communicating with a German-built charging station that then talks to a
Chinese-made power electronics and inverter system.

A home backup is pretty useless if it's unreliable. The best thing about Tesla's system is that it will actually work.

 
This is not an unsolvable problem. I would actually rate engineering a user friendly, reliable, quick disconnect (for both HVDC and cooling) that doesn't cost a fortune as a harder thing to do.

Once you have that solved, the actual removal and installation isn't that hard to engineer. As an example, campers and covers that drop into a truck bed have been around forever, complete with end user removal and installation by having it supported/ jacked up off the truck, and simply driving away. Installation being the opposite.

Granted, a solution for a battery pack might not be cheap, but it doesn't require any new technology.

At the price they're asking, hopefully some end user solution is available.
If I were going to get the CT--made a reservation 4 years ago but have decided against it--and wanted some extra range to operate in remote areas with few superchargers, and didn't want to cough up $16k while losing 1/3rd of my bed storage to the range extender battery, I'd get a small gas generator with a 240 plug and run it at night while camping to do some charging. Saw a few today at Costco that would occupy a small part of the bed, can easily be lifted by a single person, and run $600-$800.
 
If I were going to get the CT--made a reservation 4 years ago but have decided against it--and wanted some extra range to operate in remote areas with few superchargers, and didn't want to cough up $16k while losing 1/3rd of my bed storage to the range extender battery, I'd get a small gas generator with a 240 plug and run it at night while camping to do some charging. Saw a few today at Costco that would occupy a small part of the bed, can easily be lifted by a single person, and run $600-$800.
I've thought of this solution too. Although I hate to go the wrong direction, and buy another gas drinking device, it could definitely solve that problem, until a real portable battery supply solution comes along. I'd especially be okay with it if it was a rare occasion, and it wouldn't hurt to have a home back up power source anyway. There are some pretty amazing little carry-on suitcase sized gasoline generators out there nowadays that are quite efficient.
(Runs for cover...😚)
 
So we are now in the last month of 2023, not many trading days left. What does everyone think the stock will do for the next few weeks? Will we see a rally into 2024 or will we drop lower to start 2024 at a low point?
I think we’ll see the melt-up continue into next year now that we’re past the (rather limp) drop engineered to show that the CT is no big deal.

The macros will continue to trend towards the benign and the wars seem to be settling into a dullish roar.

Since all Tesla news leads to TSLA selling—when it is efficacious—expect the press to direct their "look squirrel!" stories elsewhere since those stories directed at TSLA aren’t terribly effective at the mo.
 
Agreed overall.

Just will point out that smooth surfaces aren't necessarily always better for aero.

See this NASA article for some discussion and experimental data.

One of the reasons golf balls have dimples and race cars will have vortex generators. Shark skin, which is rather rough, has a similar effect in water.
Not to mention tubercles on whale fins.

Hmm, maybe that’s what those old Cadillac fins were missing. 😅

 
It depends on your definition of once a year. We typically take one trip a year towing our camper. BUT that trip is typically 6+ weeks and 10,000 miles. So $800/week is more than we typically spend for camping, food, admissions, and gas. Basically by renting a truck you are more than doubling our costs.
You are spending 10% of the year traveling - definitely renting is not very attractive to you, unless you can find better deals for the long travel.
 
So what about Ford's home backup system? All you have to do is park next to the chicken coop.

Nikki Gordon-Bloomfield from Transport Evolved has had nothing but problems, but after working with Ford for many months she finally found the solution. She had to back the truck up next to the chicken coop to get it to work. Seriously. The chicken coop.

And even then it's not reliable. Those lazy chickens!

Essentially, this product relies on Bluetooth instead of communicating over the wire. We all know how flaky Bluetooth is. Plus Ford put the Bluetooth receiver in the wrong part of the truck so it's far away from where you plug it in to the system it needs to talk to. So she has to park in just the right spot for it to work.

Quotes from Nikki:




A home backup is pretty useless if it's unreliable. The best thing about Tesla's system is that it will actually work.


For someone who runs an EV news channel and has for years I still find it odd she has bought 2 Chevy Bolts and a Ford Lightning.

It's clear she doesn't understand the tech and just follows the wrong news sources.
 
If you weren't able to attend the CT production line tour at Giga Texas on Nov 30, you're in luck! Hint: Watch this video! It's IMPORTANT!

Cybertruck Delivery Event Video PART 2 Detailed and Narrated Cybertruck Production Line! | Joe Tegtmeyer (2023-12-02)


Takeaways: (w. slides from video w. timestamps per filename)

CT.asblyline.tour.2023-12-02.ts-0-38.jpgCT.asblyline.tour.2023-12-02.ts-0-53.jpgCT.asblyline.tour.2023-12-02.ts-1-40.jpg
  • Brian White (My Tesla Weekend on Youtube) is wrong about Tesla not having a factory where they can start building the Gen 3 car (a.k.a. Model 2, or Compact car, or $25K car) in the next yr
  • There is plenty of room left for another G.A. line in the S.E. section of Giga Texas (see slides above), and there have been no public tours of this area to date (so it's okay you missed it, Brian) ;)
  • Tesla themselves refer to both GA2 (the Cybertruck) and GA3 Lines (still secret at this point)
  • Notice the methods in common between CT production/assembly and the "unboxed" production process Tesla first described in March 2023:
    • no paint shop
    • BIW is assembly of flat 2-D panels
    • structural bty pack
    • 48v architecture w. POE
    • Steer-by-Wire/Brake-by-Wire
Will Model 2 also have 4-wheel steering? (it'd be great for city parking). Will it have 4680 batteries? (so many questions!) Tesla doesn't need 8 cell lines each producing 25GWh/yr just to feed CT -- that 200 GWh/yr is enough for Model 2 also, while sidesteping any potential IRA 'materials-sourcing' / 'foreign-entity-of-concern' issues / uncertainty. Using 4680s also adds additional IRA production benefits from using made-in-USA cells and packs (lowering COGS).

Overall, great video! Thanks for all you do, Joe Tegtmeyer!

Cheers!

P.S. if Model 2 has a 4680 structural pack (at least in one version), we musk also wonder if CT RWD might be offered in 2025 for ~$50K with a LFP structural pack? [Insert: 'thinker' meme] :D
 
Last edited:
I think commercial use of CT (and other luxury trucks) will be limited because of the cost. Also, people who pay more are reluctant to put the vehicle to rough use ... that is expected in small businesses. May be in a few years when the costs come down and it’s proven to be reliable and cheap to operate.
There are generous depreciation rules for heavy trucks (gross loaded vehicle weight over 6000 pounds) for commercial use in the US (up to 100% for 100% commercial use with bonus depreciation and Section 179). These deductions are better than those for cars used commercially (Huh! No wonder there are so many monstrosities on American roads. Yet another subsidy for and barrier to entry protecting legacy ICE OEM’s and the fossil fuel industries).

Unfortunately, the trucks need to built on a "truck chassis," so I wouldn’t know if the CT would qualify.

Also, the "luxury truck" category you conjure for the CT presumably just means based on price as the CT is very functional. I’d say there are likely plenty of contractors who are interested even at the recently announced prices, though those may be working in tonier locales. And, there are an awful lot of folks in tony areas and elsewhere taking advantage of these deductions for commercial use which doesn’t require a heavy truck, e.g. realtors.

One example in the following discussion of the deduction is a $100K truck used for hauling:
 
Last edited: