Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Cosmacelf]

Next year??!?? What happened to all the reservations ahead of him?

Yeah, I just don’t see any new orders getting their CT for at least 2+ years.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Yes this was lame. Does this change my opinion of the vehicle? Not even a little. To have bulletproof glass, it would need to be much thicker and wouldn’t roll down.

Haha, that wasn't lame. How come nobody (else) noticed that the 9mm pistol had a silencer (aka suppressor can). The whole purpose is to keep the muzzle velocity subsonic, to avoid the 'crack' sound of a supersonic projectile. That door's not gonna withstand a modern 9mm parabellum rd. And Lars told as as much (later) in the 'interview' segment of the Hagarty video.

Easy enough to add composite armor to the inside of the door panel, but the demo (and the claim) are in the same league as hovering space roadsters, and Semi's that can't jackknife... However Police Forces across the USA should sit up and take a close look at CT for their patrol fleet; with just a few well-engineered mods, CT will be a fundamentally better cruiser than the Ford SUVs that police are using now. Brains + muscle, tough + hardy. I think they'll want the 'Beast' version...

Cheers!

 

[SO16]

Haha, that wasn't lame. How come nobody (else) noticed that the 9mm pistol had a silencer (aka suppressor can). The whole purpose is to keep the muzzle velocity subsonic, to avoid the 'crack' sound of a supersonic projectile. That door's not gonna withstand a modern 9mm parabellum rd. And Lars told as as much (later) in the 'interview' segment of the Hagarty video.

Easy enough to add composite armor to the inside of the door panel, but the demo (and the claim) are in the same league as hovering space roadsters, and Semi's that can't jackknife... However Police Forces across the USA should sit up and take a close look at CT for their patrol fleet; with just a few well-engineered mods, CT will be a fundamentally better cruiser than the Ford SUVs that police are using now. Brains + muscle, tough + hardy. I think they'll want the 'Beast' version...

Cheers!

I was referring going from the steel ball to the baseball.

I actually wish they wouldn’t have shown bullets shot at it. Probably encourages some nuts to shoot at them.

 

[Paul_SF]

It’s not just crash safety though. The stainless has the durability and corrosion resistance benefits, and no paint shop.

Putting the strength in the skin makes the structure more rigid, holding mass constant. Cybertruck is structurally designed like a boat, airplane or rocket, all of which use stressed-skin designs primarily in order to save weight. As a result, Cybertruck can haul more than similarly sized and configured trucks with similar mass, despite the penalty from carrying a heavy battery and from stainless steel having worse specific strength than aluminum or high-strength steel. Body on frame trucks have inefficient structural design, especially for resisting torsional loads. Cybertruck’s stiff structure combined with the air suspension should make for much better handling performance both on and off road. I think stainless steel is the only decent material for an exoskeleton structure for this application, because aluminum and regular steel need (easily damageable) paint for corrosion protection and they suffer surface damage more easily that can gradually develop over time into more serious structural weak points.

The stainless also makes it attract attention which is, in itself, marketing at zero additional cost.

Based on the 3 mm thickness and approximate surface area, I estimate Cybertruck has roughly 250 kg of stainless steel in the exoskeleton. This should cost approximately $1k for the material, and the delta between that cost and equivalent conventional materials is less, since those aren’t free themselves. The material cost itself is not very much. It remains to be seen how total net cost will balance out.

Stainless steel exterior is the cornerstone of this whole design.

I think Gen3/Robotaxi will be made the same, for all those reasons and more.

Was looking around and so convenient the Steel Capital is ~120miles from GigaMexico.... and AHMSA is not trading, it seems...

 

[EQC_]

...
Based on the 3 mm thickness and approximate surface area, I estimate Cybertruck has roughly 250 kg of stainless steel in the exoskeleton. This should cost approximately $1k for the material
...

In one of the videos...I think the one with Jason talking to Lars and Franz...I believe they said "our panels are up to 1.8 mm thick"

I definitely remember 3mm for the early prototype...and rounding that to 1/8" in my head.

If 1.8 mm is indeed accurate as a MAX thickness, they have done some amazing engineering and materials work ... and the cost is even lower than your calculation.

 

[Todd Burch]

Yes this was lame. Does this change my opinion of the vehicle? Not even a little. To have bulletproof glass, it would need to be much thicker and wouldn’t roll down.

Not as lame as the TSLAQ people complaining that the truck is “only” bulletproof for subsonic bullets—as if any other car is remotely bulletproof to anything.

 

[Bet TSLA]

With a Tesla, you just set preconditioning and the snow is cleared off.

Yup. Another reason you need that 500 mile range battery.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Next year??!?? What happened to all the reservations ahead of him?

Roughly 40% of CT reservations were for the dual motor variant. That takes us from 2.0M to 800K reservations. Some people ordered 1 of each variant (unknown number, let's say 10%) that takes us from 800K to 700M. Other people reserved fleets-worth hoping that FSD would have led to RT business cases by now (those folks will cancel, call it another 10%) that takes us down to 600Kish

Now the price. This one we can estimate much better, given the well-established micro-economic relationship between price and demand. When you go from a $60K price point to $80K, you've increased the price 33%, that results in roughly a 3x smaller TAM. So that takes us from 600K to 200K reservation holders who are likely still in the game, still considering taking delivery.

Last point: interest rates. We have +5% higher interest affecting monthly car payments negatively, and noticable inflation / cost-of-living increases vs 4 yrs ago. Let's take half off for that, when people actually have to pull out their wallets.

So that leaves us with (very roughly) 100K reservation holders who want the dual motor version, and are likely to execute the reservation this year if offered. That's the magic number, because if things go right with the 4680 ramp, its very close to the number of CTs that Tesla will build this year. Note: I've previously est'd 80K-120K CT produced in 2024 depending on the bty ramp.

TL;dr a dual-motor CT reservation placed today has roughly a 50/50 change of being turned into an order by the end of 2024, with a large pat of margerine... (could be 40/60, could be 60/40). IMO. YMMV.

Cheers!

 

[Artful Dodger]

Probably encourages some nuts to shoot at them.

Yup, ain't they gonna be surprised when they find out the hard way.

 

[dhanson865]

quick explination on why at least 1 powerwall is helpful if you want to power the house with your Cybertruck.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Roughly 40% of CT reservations were for the dual motor variant. That takes us from 2.0M to 1.2M reservations. Some people ordered 1 of each variant (unknown number, say it's 20%) that takes us from 1.2 M to 1.0M. Other people reserved fleets-worth hoping that FSD would have led to RT business cases by now (those folks will cancel, call it another 10%) that takes us down to 900K.

Now the price. This one we can estimate much better, given the well-established micro-economic relationship between price and demand. When you go from a $60K price point to $80K, you've increased the price 33%, that results in roughly a 3x smaller TAM. So that takes us from 900K to 300K reservation holders who are likely still in the game, still considering taking delivery.

Last point: interest rates. We have +5% higher interest affecting monthly car payments negatively, and noticable inflation / cost-of-living increases vs 4 yrs ago. Let's take half off for that, when people actually have to pull out their wallets.

So that leaves us with (very roughly) 150K reservation holders who are likely to buy a dual motor CT this year if offered. That's the magic number, because (if things go right on the 4680 ramp) its very close to the number of CTs that Tesla will build this year.

TL;dr a dual-motor CT reservation placed today has a roughly 50/50 change of being turned into an order by the end of 2024. IMO

Cheers!

You think 150K CTs built in 2024??? Based on what?

 

[Artful Dodger]

You think 150K CTs built in 2024??? Based on what?

The TX 4680 cell ramp history-to-date. See my comment #435,248

 

[dhanson865]

are the dies cast in berlin bigger than in texas and china or just thier way of saying tied for 1st?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1731360850596778122

 

[TN Mtn Man]

Haha, that wasn't lame. How come nobody (else) noticed that the 9mm pistol had a silencer (aka suppressor can). The whole purpose is to keep the muzzle velocity subsonic, to avoid the 'crack' sound of a supersonic projectile. That door's not gonna withstand a modern 9mm parabellum rd. And Lars told as as much (later) in the 'interview' segment of the Hagarty video.

Easy enough to add composite armor to the inside of the door panel, but the demo (and the claim) are in the same league as hovering space roadsters, and Semi's that can't jackknife... However Police Forces across the USA should sit up and take a close look at CT for their patrol fleet; with just a few well-engineered mods, CT will be a fundamentally better cruiser than the Ford SUVs that police are using now. Brains + muscle, tough + hardy. I think they'll want the 'Beast' version...

Cheers!

Um, no, that's not the purpose of a silencer (properly known as a suppressor). A suppressor works by slowing the velocity of the escaping gas propelling the bullet, not reducing the velocity of the bullet. You still get the "sonic boom" (crack) of a supersonic bullet, and in fact they are regularly used on rifles firing at nearly 3x the speed of sound. Much/most of the noise from firing is the gas in a non-suppressed arm. Now-there are special, sub-sonic rounds with lower velocity that eliminate that-but that's an effect of the loading, not the suppressor.

 

[Cosmacelf]

The TX 4680 cell ramp history-to-date. See my comment #435,248

Well, line capacity != line production. If they can't make use of the cells, they'll just idle the line. Not to mention that the cell line needs perfect supply chain inputs of its own and as a new cell manufacturer, Tesla may very well go through teething issues just on that.

And can't the cells also be used in Model Y?

And finally, cell lines can't be ramped like vehicle lines can. Yield is a huge issue. If Tesla can't get yields high enough, the cells will cost them a lot of money resulting in Tesla slowing down CT production. It is a tight cost optimization dance (because low utilization CT lines also cost money), and no doubt Tesla's spreadsheets are groaning under the weight of all the inputs to calculate the optimal path. But just because it is theoretically possible to ramp to 150K CTs in 2024 doesn't mean they'll actually be able to pull it off!

Just seems like a very large number to me for first full year production considering Elon was sandbagging expectations a lot in the Q3 earnings call.

 

[Buckminster]

Well, line capacity != line production. If they can't make use of the cells, they'll just idle the line. Not to mention that the cell line needs perfect supply chain inputs of its own and as a new cell manufacturer, Tesla may very well go through teething issues just on that.

And can't the cells also be used in Model Y?

And finally, cell lines can't be ramped like vehicle lines can. Yield is a huge issue. If Tesla can't get yields high enough, the cells will cost them a lot of money resulting in Tesla slowing down CT production. It is a tight cost optimization dance (because low utilization CT lines also cost money), and no doubt Tesla's spreadsheets are groaning under the weight of all the inputs to calculate the optimal path. But just because it is theoretically possible to ramp to 150K CTs in 2024 doesn't mean they'll actually be able to pull it off!

Just seems like a very large number to me for first full year production considering Elon was sandbagging expectations a lot in the Q3 earnings call.

Poll underway - percentage of TMCers that believe 2024 production will be over 75k is...
Cybertruck Production Poll

 

[Cosmacelf]

Poll underway - percentage of TMCers that believe 2024 production will be over 75k is...
Cybertruck Production Poll

Thanks, voted. The other reason I don't think CT will ramp quickly is because it is chock full of brand new technology, some of which will break. Tesla will fix it all, of course, and make running production line changes to accommodate the fixes, but that means they don't want high volume.

 

[munkypuzel]

When calculating Cyber reservations - how many do you think were made from other regions? Regions that will likely never ship.

The reservation system was open in UK initially - many people placed deposits -did this happen in other countries? How many do we think can be subtracted from the total?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Um, no, that's not the purpose of a silencer (properly known as a suppressor). A suppressor works by slowing the velocity of the escaping gas propelling the bullet, not reducing the velocity of the bullet.

Did you watch the interview the interview with Lars about the 9mm test? He literally said it was a lower mv than a std 9mm

 

[jamaatta]

When calculating Cyber reservations - how many do you think were made from other regions? Regions that will likely never ship.

The reservation system was open in UK initially - many people placed deposits -did this happen in other countries? How many do we think can be subtracted from the total?

I still have a CT reservation made in Finland. I believe that reservation was open through Europe..? At the moment it's closed at least in Finland. As I already said, if the range is not enough, send 'em to Europe, please.

Still dreaming of EU-version of CT.