Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[uscbucsfan]

The RWD says, "Available" in 2025.

AWD and Beast say, "Delivery" in 2024. Delivery means delivery. Tesla intends that if you order today you will take delivery in 2024. That is Tesla's intention. I don't see how it could be interpreted any other way.

It's not possible per Elon and many others at Tesla unless they aren't backfilling any previous reservations. The max the line is capable of producing right now is 125k and they won't hit that run rate for a while.

The AWD and Cyberbeast regular trims aren't even beginning to ship until the Foundation series. Those 1,000 are shipping starting now until March 2024.

Most interpret "Delivery in 2024" as that's when those models will start delivering and its typical Tesla ambiguity.

I believe they will deliver new CT orders in 2024 less than I believe FSD will be solved this year.

 

[Singuy]

It looks like M3 RWD and Long Range will lose all tax credit from Jan1st. Per Sawyer Merritt on X

Also the time to introduce the refresh. This is all planned by Tesla.

 

[MP3Mike]

AWD and Beast say, "Delivery" in 2024. Delivery means delivery. Tesla intends that if you order today you will take delivery in 2024. That is Tesla's intention. I don't see how it could be interpreted any other way.

Sure, but how many can actually order one right now? Tesla will limit the number of orders they allow, and update the delivery time frame as necessary.

 

[SmokyPeat]

That's a very encouraging Optimus video compilation. I don't expect there will be Optimus bots working the line at Tesla in any real capacity next year, but it's good to see the progress.

 

[uscbucsfan]

Sure, but how many can actually order one right now? Tesla will limit the number of orders they allow, and update the delivery time frame as necessary.

That could be the thing.

Only around 1k people have actually ordered a CT. Maybe they are saying orders will be in 2024, because you can still only pre-order.

 

[EVWatcher]

That's a very encouraging Optimus video compilation. I don't expect there will be Optimus bots working the line at Tesla in any real capacity next year, but it's good to see the progress.

Every time Elon describes the model 2 line I assume it’s Optimus

 

[MP3Mike]

So it looks like you now need to pay a $1000, non-refundable, deposit to place a Cybertruck order.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1734781893889896956

 

[Mengy]

Uhhh wow?

https://x.com/Tesla_Optimus/status/1734756150137225501?s=20

Uh, wait, but I though Tesla was just a car company?



Seriously though, the rate of progress is amazing. Gen 2 looks much nicer than Gen 1.

 

[2daMoon]

I just need to whine a little and you guys seem more likely to understand…

HODL has been harder to justify over the last few years for me. Who would have thought that the SPY would outperform TSLA for the last 3 years? Isn’t Tesla an awesome high growth stock that’s really going places (I know it is)? This graph is disappointing.

SPY=Blue. TSLA=Black. Pop=3 years.

View attachment 998830

To me they look like they are tracking each other, only TSLA has a higher beta.
SPY has an upswing, TSLA swings higher, SPY down, TSLA down more.

It might be setting up for the next swing higher than the SPY's meager uptick.

HODL

 

[Electroman]

It is OT, but this crowd will enjoy. The man who out Elon'd Elon (or whatever the hell it is )

 

[alhounos]

Every time Elon describes the model 2 line I assume it’s Optimus

I imagine the big story with model 2 is that it will be cast in two pieces and then joined by a structural battery, aka the Matchbox car dream. Wouldn't even need Optimus for most of that.

 

[2daMoon]

Remember 3 deliveries in Q1 '19, after a blockbuster Q3/Q4 '18 ?

Tesla will have to start lowering prices (offer lower models) to induce all those reservation holders to convert. People who order now and want a beast will get it in 2025, for sure.

I wouldn't disagree for the Beast buyers. Tesla has always loved to sell the bling versions for as long as they can get buyers.

Tesla also has a habit of lowering prices on some models when production allows and tromping the competition. The 2WD and AWD 2-motor would be the models to take the wind from the sales of ICE pickups when the time is right.

 

[alhounos]

The Optimus video is great to see. not aware of any other humanoid bot out there showing that level of refinement.

I think a lot of us can agree that Tesla's dominance as a car company, as amazing as that story is and will be, is already priced in. We need to see major progress in other business areas like the bot, FSD, and energy to justify HODLing. Little tantalizing nuggets of Optimus progress really help.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

So it looks like you now need to pay a $1000, non-refundable, deposit to place a Cybertruck order.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1734781893889896956

Looks like they are trying to figure out what the backlog really is

 

[Mengy]

Every time Elon describes the model 2 line I assume it’s Optimus

The boxed production line the Model 2 will use seems designed specifically for ease of Optimus access (and/or ease of human access) to the sub assemblies. Optimus bots will almost certainly be on the Model 2 line shortly after production begins, if not on day one even.

 

[2daMoon]

The RWD says, "Available" in 2025.

AWD and Beast say, "Delivery" in 2024.

Delivery means delivery. Tesla intends that if you order today you will take delivery in 2024. That is Tesla's intention. I don't see how it could be interpreted any other way.

Delivery means delivery. Sure.

You already agree that Elon said there are "over" a million reservations. (which doesn't mean there aren't over 2M)

But, you think someone ordering today will take delivery next year?

So, you are expecting less than 5% of those million reservations to be taking delivery? If so, 50K would leave room for any more than that to go to new orders. But, presuming that 95% of a million reservations will pass, either waiting for the RWD in 2025, or, will cancel altogether when called seems a stretch.


What if all it means is that there WILL be deliveries in 2024, to those who have long-standing reservations dating from 2019, but not necessarily deliveries to those who didn't order until late 2023.

 

[The Accountant]

I just need to whine a little and you guys seem more likely to understand…

HODL has been harder to justify over the last few years for me. Who would have thought that the SPY would outperform TSLA for the last 3 years? Isn’t Tesla an awesome high growth stock that’s really going places (I know it is)? This graph is disappointing.

I hear you. But when I have the urge to whine, I think about many on this forum who invested in 2013, 2014, 2015 and had the patience to wait and wait.
I came along in 2019 and realize I was lucky. But those who invested in 2013 were smarter, they were locked in and they were not going to miss the upside. I could have easily missed it all. I stumbled onto this forum in March 2019 and went all in . . but if I would have been distracted that day, I'd be much poorer today.

Now we're waiting again . . . but I will be wise like the 2013 investors . . . and patiently wait for the huge upside that is on the horizon.

"The big money is not in buying the selling, but in the waiting"--- Charlie Munger

Tom Petty and Eddie Vedder telling it like it is:

âï¸ Petty

19 seconds · Clipped by Tony C · Original video "Eddie Vedder w/ Tom Petty & The Heartbreakers - The Waiting - 7.03.06 -1080.HD" by TheSteved111

youtube.com

 

[EVWatcher]

The boxed production line the Model 2 will use seems designed specifically for ease of Optimus access (and/or ease of human access) to the sub assemblies. Optimus bots will almost certainly be on the Model 2 line shortly after production begins, if not on day one even.

IMO the reason Mexico was sidelined for Texas has more to do with Optimus being ready and not wanting to ship them out of the country.

Optimus is absolutely a national security concern if nvda H100s are.

 

[Usain]

It's not possible per Elon and many others at Tesla unless they aren't backfilling any previous reservations. The max the line is capable of producing right now is 125k and they won't hit that run rate for a while.

The AWD and Cyberbeast regular trims aren't even beginning to ship until the Foundation series. Those 1,000 are shipping starting now until March 2024.

Most interpret "Delivery in 2024" as that's when those models will start delivering and its typical Tesla ambiguity.

I believe they will deliver new CT orders in 2024 less than I believe FSD will be solved this year.

A Cybertruck minus tax credit plus taxes and fees, still costs about $80,000. I believe you are vastly over-estimating the number of reservation holders who are willing and able to pay $80,000 for a Cybertruck in 2024. Interest rates are still high and auto sales are down. If you are ready to pony up the cash, Tesla intends to deliver your Cybertruck in 2024.

When Tesla says the Model Y has delivery in January, they mean delivery in January. When they say Cybertruck delivery in 2024, they mean delivery in 2024.

Tesla is not lying.

 

[Usain]

Sure, but how many can actually order one right now? Tesla will limit the number of orders they allow, and update the delivery time frame as necessary.

Anybody in the US can order one right now. Tesla may indeed limit orders if it looks like they need to. But that hasn't happened yet.