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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Sorry if I wasn't clear, my question was on pros/cons to using the red-hot stamp CT interior panel process for other models' panels like on Y or 3. The Footprint and Foundation could be a lot smaller. This bendable red-hot forming could also enable use of softer tooling metals (or longer tool life) - like they in fact did on the panels with their Al/Bronze dies. Clearly a lot less force is needed and quite the hard steel with CT. Seems like a trade-off in energy source (heat vs massive hydraulic pressure) with a lot of floor space reduced. It may even eliminate the need for multi-stage forming. Bonus!
Also, I was talking about the 5 story presses for the other models such as 3 and Y - how they were described on my Fremont tour. The one's in the room the size of a stadium nearly.
About Tesla's CT air bending:
medium.com
Tesla’s Innovative Air Bending: Shaping the Future of Stainless Steel Manufacturing
In the ever-evolving landscape of manufacturing, Tesla has once again pushed the boundaries of innovation with the introduction of air…
medium.com
UkNorthampton
TSLA - 12+ startups in 1
Workplace or carpark charging. Keeping easy to damage equipment away from idiot drivers, vandals and bad weather. Might be less efficient but lower maintenance.
[Edit - below]
It should be possible to identify vehicle/charging account.
Other uses:-
- Traffic lights
- Semi/HGVs serving ports (high levels of congestion halts/slows traffic often)
- Buses
- Taxi stops. Especially at airports & train stations as these sometimes require special permits - the cost of which could include charging
- On street parking (blanket install on whole terraced street)
- Stadiums
- Airport long term parking
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I note #4 uses the word “introduces” as distinct from “produces”. This distinction likely means a future revenue stream may be a wish further away than 2024 IMO.
A reveal that does not have “Osborning” implications would be Optimus related. I note that improved neck movement on Optimus leads one to think how beneficial those movable cameras ”might” be vs fixed vehicle cameras.
So one question going forward might be if a robotaxi need be a specific product or if there is a path to make nearly any vehicle an Optimus Taxi. YMMV
cliff harris
Member
I am certainly no construction expert, but have dealt with some nonsense involving super high voltage cabling.
My gut feeling is that for car parks, the cost of channeling out a concrete path to/from a wireless charge pad in the floor, and installing it in a way that is safe for every weight of vehicle to drive over it, when multiplied by 500 parking spaces would be extremely high.
The good thing about conventional chargers is that the cable can be routed down to them from existing overhead cable runs. Having a high voltage cable in the ceiling where nobody can get at it is likely safer than having a grid of them under the floor?
Maybe when building a new car park from scratch, it would make sense to install wireless pads.
The other problem is that its chicken-and-egg. Elon detests useless parts. The equipment on the car, however small, for wireless charging and identification will only make sense to install if wireless charging becomes as common as superchargers, and thats a LONG way out.
My best guess is that they will offer this as a high end option, maybe for S/X at first, with an eye to selling the kit to people for home charging in an owner's garage.
(maybe as a trial run to see how the tech performs so they can work towards a robotaxi charging solution)
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Why AI Will Spark Exponential Economic Growth | Cathie Wood | TED (2023-12-18)
Recorded in Oct 2023 at TED.AI in San Francisco. Cathie starts slow, but by the 5 min mark she's taking about the $8-10T Market for Robotaxis by 2030, and she finishes with a flourish predicting a $200T AI Market and 40% CAGR for AI platforms. Good charts featured, well worth the time to watch (esp. @ 1.4x)
Recorded in Oct 2023 at TED.AI in San Francisco. Cathie starts slow, but by the 5 min mark she's taking about the $8-10T Market for Robotaxis by 2030, and she finishes with a flourish predicting a $200T AI Market and 40% CAGR for AI platforms. Good charts featured, well worth the time to watch (esp. @ 1.4x)
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Too long, didn't watch. I've watched dozens of videos from Wood/Arkk and the recent ones were re-hashes of her years-old theories (re: 5 platforms, accelerating growth, etc).
What's new this time?
Dan Ives follows Tesla, correct? Then why would he say that in #4, because we know for a fact the $25K Tesla will be made in Austin first, NOT Mexico.
robotaxi - one unit
optimus taxi - two units - robo-in-taxi
+Optimus will be initially trained to be a turtle(slow < 5 miles), robotaxi as a hare .. upto 120M/hr.both are NN, Dojo based. So if solved for one, optimus would be redundant no?
robotaxi will have 8+ eyes (will compensate for the movement) as well as some new high-res radars. The cameras could in future be paired with some actuators no? and make it move slightly if required?. cheers!!
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
FWIW nearly all the German car makers are doing the same thing (BMW, VW, and Mercedes at least that I've noticed)
As a downside look I've already seen people cite this as "evidence" Tesla will be cutting prices Jan 1 on the cars losing US tax credits and recommending everyone wait to buy based on it.
robotaxi - one unit
optimus taxi - two units - robo-in-taxi
both are NN, Dojo based. So if solved for one, optimus would be redundant no?
robotaxi will have 8+ eyes (will compensate for the movement) as well as some new radars. The cameras could in future be paired with some actuators no? and make it move slightly if required?. cheers!!
Yeah, if you can actually get (whatever revision) of the FSD computer to drive then there's no reason to ALSO have a robot in the car doing what the car could already do.
That said- having one at each supercharger to plug/unplug, plus clean the cars while they charge, seems a lot more practical than refitting every supercharger stall with a wireless pad (that 0% of the current fleet could even use)
Wait... so, they say not to take a $7,500 credit now because they think Tesla will lower prices more than $7,500 next year?
I mean, if you don't qualify for the credit, that's one thing, but everyone?
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Wasn't Shanghai only down for like 7-10 days or something for Highland refresh? I recall everyone being quite surprised how little production was lost relative to a model refresh (look at the S/X debacle for example)
This is REALLY not a thing.
As many have shown the math on- the price cuts this year make monthly payments significantly cheaper with todays high interest rates than they were when interest rates were much lower but car prices were much higher- if interest rates were the issue they didn't need to cut NEARLY as much as they did to keep payments the same.
They cut prices because there simply were not enough buyers at the higher prices as production continued to scale- so they needed to offer significantly LOWER payments now than what a smaller # of folks were ok taking when production was only 1.3M not 1.8.
Keep that in mind as Tesla works to scale north of 2M in 2024 simply by scaling up Y production further and an at-best-for-24 0.1M CT contribution. Highland will help some, but most sales are Y anymore.
https://twitter.com/TeslaCharging/with_replies on a roll today ... 100+ stalls (+info posted) in the past hr.
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Not all brand new though, this one has been on supercharge.info since Nov 22 for example:
Seems like they are trying to catch up with their own construction speed...
, wasn't it more than that? See Q3 numbers - and drop from week 8 onwards in the chart.
on price cuts haven't seen the math ... but one slightly accepted theory on the price cuts was due to increasing interest rates, so we should be seeing the reverse also taking affect? If not on just price, then maybe due to increase in demand because there will be more consumers wanting to buy with a better deal on the loans. cheers!!
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
Quick question for those who have built spreadsheets to track TSLA. What do you reference the current year's growth to?
Some seem to use the previous year's (2022) Closing Price ($123.18) to measure against, and others appear to reference the Closing Price for the first day of the current year. ($108.10)
Usually, it doesn't make much difference in any given year as those prices would be close to one another, but this year it represents a 12% decline from Dec 30, 2022 to Jan 3, 2023. Whichever is used will significantly skew the overall result for this year's growth.
(106% vs 135% growth, respectively)
Is one of these references considered the "accepted" point to place the yardstick from which to measure annual growth?
(i.e.: closing price for: the last day of prior year; or, first day of current year)
Just want to be measuring next year's (hopefully) meteoric trajectory from the correct launch pad...
Some seem to use the previous year's (2022) Closing Price ($123.18) to measure against, and others appear to reference the Closing Price for the first day of the current year. ($108.10)
Usually, it doesn't make much difference in any given year as those prices would be close to one another, but this year it represents a 12% decline from Dec 30, 2022 to Jan 3, 2023. Whichever is used will significantly skew the overall result for this year's growth.
(106% vs 135% growth, respectively)
Is one of these references considered the "accepted" point to place the yardstick from which to measure annual growth?
(i.e.: closing price for: the last day of prior year; or, first day of current year)
Just want to be measuring next year's (hopefully) meteoric trajectory from the correct launch pad...
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