Day 08: Eight Maids A-Milking | Model 2 World Car
Part of
12 Days of Christmas - Tesla Edition a series (c) by the Artful Dodger, Dec 2023
Over this Yuletide season, I will post a daily installment focusing on Tesla products, past, present, and future (please note that I will express
major themes as short-hand bullet points, so I can
Yule just in
tide ). Here's the series so far:
Day 01: A Partridge in a Pear Tree | Roadster Proof of Concept
Day 02: 2 Turtle Doves | S/X Fraternal Twins go Mainstream
Day 03: 3 French Hens | Model 3 Bets the Company
Day 04: 4 Calling Birds | Model Y Built at Four Factories
Day 05: Five Golden Rings | Semi Breaks Physiks
Day 06: Six geese a-laying | Megapack To Excel
Day 07: Seven Swans a-Swimming | Cybertourdeforce
Intro to Part 8: Eight Maids A-Milking | Model 2 World Car
At Tesla's 2018 AGM, the
1st question from the audience was 'when would Tesla build a compact car?' Elon agreed it was a good idea, and said possibly in about 4 years. Well, a world-wide pandemic later, subsequent supply chain disruptions (chips, sealift, ports), Model Y breakout success, and CT deliveries here we are on the cusp of the "Model 2" era.
Please allow me this one conceit: I believe I was the
first to adopt the moniker "
Model 2" in a discussion here with
@fact-checking circa 2018. He advocated calling the compact car the "
Model 4" since it would be Tesla's 4th car (Model Y not had not yet been announced). I liked "
Model 2" because the compact car targeted the $20K price point (the "Corolla" market), while Model 3" aspired to the $30K level (the "Camry" Market) - a price level which it has now achieved.
Of course, I'm well aware that Elon has said specifically that the compact car
won't be called the "
Model 2", which promptly set off a new round of naming speculation: Model Zei, Model Tau, Model Juan (just for the MiMx Robotaxi). For the purposes of this discussion, I'll simply continue to use this placeholder name for what will be 1st in a series of Gen 3 products: "
Model 2"
1. Combining Lessons Learned
- Model 2 will be the culmination of everything Tesla has learned so far about designing cars and the factories that make them. I expect the following features in the Model 2:
- $1,000 drive train: featuring PM motors w/o rare earth magnets
- LFP tech for bty cathode: long-life and approaching $50/KWh when fully scaled
- steer+brake-by-wire allows for optional driver controls, easy switch btwn LHD/RHD
- paintless process: unclear how they'll do this but Tesla could save $8B in CapEx w/o paintshops
- this is based on a production tgt of 16M units for the entire Gen3 range of vehicles
- FSD hdw in all new Tesla cars; safety first, convenience next
Lesson 1: Learn from the Past, Price Matters
2. Where to Build?
- The Model 2 program will begin at the home of Tesla engineering, Giga Texas
- I expect a pilot line there by Q1 2025 +/- 1 qtr
- this pilot line will use learnings from the CT ramp, and emply many of the same techniques
- Tesla may need 8 more Gigafactories by 2030 just to produce Model 2 and siblings (2M ea)
- Texas phase 2
- Mexico phases 1 + 2
- Shanghai phases 3 + 4
- Berlin (EU) phase 2
- India phase 1
- Osaka phase 1
Lesson 2: Build a World Car; localize the Supply Chain
3. The Third Wave
- What will the world look like with Gen 3? Well, gas cars sales will shrivel up and die for the most part when a better car is available at a lower purchase price, and has half the operating cost
- Many Nations are in the process of adopting strict deadlines for new cars sales to be all electric, many chosing 2035 (which is just over 10 model years away)
- Other automakers will either adapt or die, we see already the tremendous contraction in production of their non-competitive models. It will be a race for survival, not for 2nd place
Lesson 3: Survival of the Fittest applies to the auto industry
Conclusion:
Model 2 will be the lead ship in what will become a global fleet of Tesla mass market vehicles. Gen3 will span all major use cases: RoboTaxi, Workman Van, Camper, Mini-bus, perhaps even a small truck (Truckla?) The overarching theme of Gen 3 will be commonality of parts, esp. drivetrain, bty, and electronics. A consistent UI via Tesla software, Apps, and Infotainment will add significant recurring revenue while keeping COGS low on a per unit basis. Then, there's the dawn of AGI...
Next up: Tesla's Supercomputer Project - AI neural nets go mainstream
Tomorrow's Topic:
Day 09: Nine Ladies Dancing | Dojo as a Service