Musskiah
DisGruntled
I'm willing to make a cameo if this ever comes to fruition.Lol, it's completely OT that "Elon" is the Hebrew name meaning oak tree.
Um, you know that Tesla PR is hiring for video production roles in El Lay, right...
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Musskiah
DisGruntled
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Tesla to spend $770 million expanding Texas Gigafactory
Gigafactory is about to get Biggerfactory.
www.theverge.com
"Tesla intends to construct additional facilities for what appears to be a battery cell testing lab, cathode and drive unit manufacturing facilities, a die shop, and an undisclosed 693,093-square-foot facility called Cell 1." Can someone clarify again, this Cell 1 expansion is for 4680s? It is 200k Sq ft larger than Kato Rd, so how many lines can this expansion have?
That article is from January and other sources say it was expected to complete in Feb 2024 so Cell 1 might be the south expansion?Tesla to spend $770 million expanding Texas Gigafactory
Gigafactory is about to get Biggerfactory.
"Tesla intends to construct additional facilities for what appears to be a battery cell testing lab, cathode and drive unit manufacturing facilities, a die shop, and an undisclosed 693,093-square-foot facility called Cell 1." Can someone clarify again, this Cell 1 expansion is for 4680s? It is 200k Sq ft larger than Kato Rd, so how many lines can this expansion have?
View attachment 1002312
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
Tesla to spend $770 million expanding Texas Gigafactory
Gigafactory is about to get Biggerfactory.
"Tesla intends to construct additional facilities for what appears to be a battery cell testing lab, cathode and drive unit manufacturing facilities, a die shop, and an undisclosed 693,093-square-foot facility called Cell 1." Can someone clarify again, this Cell 1 expansion is for 4680s? It is 200k Sq ft larger than Kato Rd, so how many lines can this expansion have?
View attachment 1002312
All of those listed above are existing buildings. Most of which are in late stages of construction.
The Die Shop, Cathode, and Cell Test Lab are all together, North of Tesla Rd. and East of the Switch Yard. The Cell Test Lab is the small building North of the crash test and wading pool area, beside the Cathode building's North end.
Drive Unit and Cell 1 are in the Gigafactory. Cell 1 is on the Northwest corner, upper floors. There has been a lot of construction going on there for a while. Presumably they are adding the additional 4 battery lines to the existing 4.
I highly recommend watch any of Joe Tegtmeyer's drone videos, he covers any changes spotted at each building on every flight.
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The 50% was from my reply to @unk45 's original post; in my particular situation, based on various semi-unique tax circumstances, extracting spendable cash incurs a 50% marginal tax rate (37% federal + 3% state + 10% penalties) on those funds for 2023. <Explanation only - absolutely not complaining, as overall the structure is quite beneficial in many ways, especially in out-years.>
P.S. To clarify, in part by leveraging the philosophies / discussions of the 'other thread', I am able to eliminate needing to sell TSLA to extract cash, but the larger point remains regardless of whether it is TSLA or TSLA derivatives being sold.
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Just watched the movie. It certainly does make Tesla look like a real bad move..or product. A long unending line of smashed up white (like mine) Model 3's stacked up and more coming down the road at high speed and crashing into the rear of the long line. A not so subtle comment on Musk? Or EV's ?
Gary Black
@garyblack00
Post-apocalyptic thriller Leave the World Behind shoots to #1 on Netflix – and $TSLA is featured prominently. https://independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/films/news/leave-the-world-behind-netflix-b2461618.html
Just saw that Gary Black posted this about the new Netflix Post-Apocalyptic Thriller: "Leave the World Behind" and yes, the trailer prominently features Tesla in this trailer. And, sure any publicity is good publicity is what I keep hearing, but this shows Tesla cars on FSD smashing into each other. I guess I will have to see how this turns into a positive for Tesla. You would think on FSD, the Tesla would recognize what is in front and slam on the brakes.
Any attempted answer is speculation, but IMO there is one important difference.
The same FSD software runs in all cars, and it is the set of training data and training, (with different versions).
For TelsaBot each job may be a small individual training tasks initially with its own data set and training
FSD has to be capable of completing all driving tasks, TeslaBot can just be assigned to a specific task.,
When the FSD software is "right" Robotaxis will scale fast...
I will would not rule out TeslaBot doing some useful work in a factory before we have regulatory approval for FSD.
That is the other advantage the Bot has, the regulatory approvals, and the public exposure are minimal.
If we are trying to guess which one might move the share price first, my bet would be on TeslaBot, because video footage of the Bot doing useful work in a factory may be enough to move the needle and that is likely to happen before FSD has regulatory approval,
Buckminster
Well-Known Member
It's a crazy situation but yes:
M2 launch in 2024 and scaling in 2025
Robotaxi launch in 2026? and scaling in 2027?
V2 Bot ramp was supposed to start in Nov
V3 bot launch in 2024, scaling 2025?
The entire movie was just horrible! That was only a small part of the cringe.
KBF
Model X owner (formerly Cdn Signature Model S)
Since we're on the topic of capital gains taxes, I just want to point out that it's possible (at least in Canada) to reduce those to almost nil by donating. It's a bit late for 2023. Most of you here probably know, but I've been surprised how many haven't heard about donating shares with unrealized gains.
I find local charities that do good work and donate shares with extremely high unrealized capital gains - I don't get charged for the gains (and neither does the charity), but I get credited for donating current market value. Very efficient. There are online resources like CanadaHelps that make this super easy.
I feel like it's the least I can do with my investment proceeds that seem to keep growing (somehow my diverse portfolio grew 22% this year... I guess NVIDIA helped a lot), and the groups I donate to (like soup kitchens, youth drop-in centres, local volunteer fire departments, etc) are much more efficient at helping those truly in need than any government program.
Though I haven't donated TSLA shares for a while - too much upside with energy, AI, etc etc, I'd rather donate exponentially more in 5-10 years, but there are other companies that have done well without as much long term upside what I don't mind giving away.
Happy holidays, and cheers to this forum. I love learning and laughing, (mostly observing). It's a relatively bright spot online, and I appreciate it!
I find local charities that do good work and donate shares with extremely high unrealized capital gains - I don't get charged for the gains (and neither does the charity), but I get credited for donating current market value. Very efficient. There are online resources like CanadaHelps that make this super easy.
I feel like it's the least I can do with my investment proceeds that seem to keep growing (somehow my diverse portfolio grew 22% this year... I guess NVIDIA helped a lot), and the groups I donate to (like soup kitchens, youth drop-in centres, local volunteer fire departments, etc) are much more efficient at helping those truly in need than any government program.
Though I haven't donated TSLA shares for a while - too much upside with energy, AI, etc etc, I'd rather donate exponentially more in 5-10 years, but there are other companies that have done well without as much long term upside what I don't mind giving away.
Happy holidays, and cheers to this forum. I love learning and laughing, (mostly observing). It's a relatively bright spot online, and I appreciate it!
Buckminster
Well-Known Member
In addition to Tesla killing it, there are a number of macros that could help TSLA in the next year or so:
- Non-index funds remain light on TSLA
- Reducing interest rates just 3 months off
- Private equity going out of fashion from a VC perspective. Investors might put their money to work elsewhere. Joining the dots...
- M&A difficult - All-in pod starting 36 mins in
- Cost of IPO will increase due to above
- AI is deflationary meaning less investment required
- Elon advised against IPO in discussion with Cathy meaning it's harder for private equity to get their money out
- These mean there will be fewer public companies with more investment
- etc.
Wouldn´t it be funny in this context if the hyperloop would have its breakthrough in Europe instead?
A week ago I read in my local newspaper that a company from the Netherlands, Hardt Hyperloop, is planning a connection across the border into Germany: Grenzüberschreitende Innovation: Aachen und Parkstad Limburg investieren in Hyperloop-Testprojekt
While I was googling, I found that the technical univesity of Munich already has a test track: Hyperloop-Teststrecke in Deutschland eröffnet
I think having the competitions for hyperloop vehicles for international university student teams a while ago was a very smart move to promote the technology and keep it alive, even if Elon couldn´t develop it all himself.
TUM Hyperloop team remains world champion
The third capsule of the WARR Hyperloop team raced through the experimental tube at SpaceX in Los Angeles at an astonishing 290 miles per hour. The students of the TUM thus remain undefeated in the third Hyperloop Pod competition and hold the speed record for a Hyperloop prototype.
www.tum.de
The most ironic outcome ist the most likely
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Nothing may have scale to match MegaPack and larger derivatives.
JusRelax
Active Member
I know this isn't the BYD thread, but I did think that it might be something to take note of that John McElroy says that he knows for a fact that BYD is now making money on EVs (he unfortunately didn't mention how he knows this in this discussion, but the way he says it makes it sound as if it's a public fact). Has anybody found a reliable source that BYD is making money on pure EVs?
PSA for everyone that will have to fight Tesla FUD from friends and family over the holidays.
As of today, approximately 70% of Tesla vehicles impacted by the NHTSA Autopilot recall have been remediated (1,400,000 vehicles), all without a visit to a dealership.
This was accomplished in the 11 days since the formal notification from NHTSA on Dec 12.
The 70% figure was arrived at by extrapolating data from TeslaFi, an add-on that tracks firmware data for about 20,000 Tesla vehicles across all model makes and years.
Here’s a link if you want to follow the firmware progression further: https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwi388DdwqWDAxXjnYQIHakjCxoQFnoECA8QAQ&url=https://teslafi.com/firmware&usg=AOvVaw39NfMhD9MCxIOeFU181Bms&opi=89978449
As of today, approximately 70% of Tesla vehicles impacted by the NHTSA Autopilot recall have been remediated (1,400,000 vehicles), all without a visit to a dealership.
This was accomplished in the 11 days since the formal notification from NHTSA on Dec 12.
The 70% figure was arrived at by extrapolating data from TeslaFi, an add-on that tracks firmware data for about 20,000 Tesla vehicles across all model makes and years.
Here’s a link if you want to follow the firmware progression further: https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwi388DdwqWDAxXjnYQIHakjCxoQFnoECA8QAQ&url=https://teslafi.com/firmware&usg=AOvVaw39NfMhD9MCxIOeFU181Bms&opi=89978449
BYD financial reports do not offer enough detail to tell profitability fo any given product line. Since they are so diverse, with trains, busses, trucks, cars, batteries and more, detailed product line information would be highly desirable. Notably, their financial condition does not reflect anything resembling TSLA-style conservatism. To simplify the results just glance at Yahoo Finance can flow statement:
BYD Company Limited (1211.HK) Cash Flow - Yahoo Finance - Yahoo Finance
Understand the cash flow statement for BYD Company Limited (1211.HK), learn where the money comes from and how the company spends it.
finance.yahoo.com
Every year end I do a BYD review as I do for several potential investments. Each time I realize that product line profitability or not is the least of the issues. BYD is pursuing new markets and geographies very aggressively, always with easy capital access but singly never with concern for conventional financial resilience.
FWIW, quite similar characteristics were present for Toyota in the 1960's and later, Hyundai in the 1970's and later, among others. The seemingly imprudent financial structure may not be any more an issue for BYD as it was for Toyota and Hyundai. In all three of those and others, because the financial and operating character of Japanese, Korean and Chinese conglomerates is fundamentally different than are those of the Western hemisphere the risks are themselves quite different.
This all makes TSLA all the more amazingly unique. I choose that word, unique, purposefully. We all compare TSLA with other investment options. That is difficult because both Tesla and SpaceX have done things and are doing things that are unprecedented. When we try to see them in conventional eyes our eyes deceive us. One of the primary reasons for all that volatility and all that shorting is that conventionally Tesla should never have existed much less thrived.
Now, as I am doing my annual review I am struck by how little some of the more flamboyantly unconventional behavior by our CEO matters. Obviously much is distracting and some is offense to many of us. Then when examining in cold rationality what is happening I am astounded to realize that the innovation continues unabated. The operating environment in Tesla foments further innovation. Oddly, perhaps, I end this volatile and controversial year reaffirming my conviction that TSLA should remain as it is, one of my largest holdings.
The nearest OEM to Tesla's range is BYD, with perhaps BMW and Hyundai/Kia next for cars only, and VAG as a factor if they survive as is. Otherwise there only GWM, Geely and, in the EU at least, Stellantis. I posted a bit about BYD today. Each of those others have huge legacy impediments, including GWM which has a legacy as a Magna-style Tier One and contract manufacturer. All in all, none are really approaching Tesla overall.
Finally, Magna remains unremarked, mostly but they do have BEV technologies and are expanding those:
Magna sells automotive battery pack business to Samsung SDI
Deal includes production and development sites and contracts
www.theglobeandmail.com
What devlopments are next? I fully expect that some (e.g. GM, Ford, Stelantis) will be using Magna for innovation and smaller volume production. Since Magna-Steyr already has made cars for nearly every EU OEM I fully expect the EV model ranges will have Magna products appearing soon.
With those developments and:
Magna Enhances ADAS Capabilities by Joining 5G Innovation Program
Magna remains regularly as a potential investment. I have been in and out of MGA from time to time, less deeply because fo continuing issues of corporate control.
So from year end perspective I once again decide the TSLA future is bright, so I'll stay as is, HODL.
MGA might well reappear in my sights depending on the next few months.
This was all is response to BYD, of which I had just completed my review and decided to remain a watcher, not an investor. Too much unmitigated risk for me!
Is there an unk45 ETF I can invest in?BYD financial reports do not offer enough detail to tell profitability fo any given product line. Since they are so diverse, with trains, busses, trucks, cars, batteries and more, detailed product line information would be highly desirable. Notably, their financial condition does not reflect anything resembling TSLA-style conservatism. To simplify the results just glance at Yahoo Finance can flow statement:
As that shows clearly, product line profitability is the least of the issues. The late Charlie Munger really ignored all the famed Berkshire financial acuity on this one! Much is positive about BYD, specifically their quite good batteries that Tesla buys and their very good electric busses, including their diverse cars. However, their financial structure shows good access to funding but minimal concern for cash flow or leverage. They'll thrive and survive so long as their access to funding continues unabated.BYD Company Limited (1211.HK) Cash Flow - Yahoo Finance - Yahoo Finance
Understand the cash flow statement for BYD Company Limited (1211.HK), learn where the money comes from and how the company spends it.
Every year end I do a BYD review as I do for several potential investments. Each time I realize that product line profitability or not is the least of the issues. BYD is pursuing new markets and geographies very aggressively, always with easy capital access but singly never with concern for conventional financial resilience.
FWIW, quite similar characteristics were present for Toyota in the 1960's and later, Hyundai in the 1970's and later, among others. The seemingly imprudent financial structure may not be any more an issue for BYD as it was for Toyota and Hyundai. In all three of those and others, because the financial and operating character of Japanese, Korean and Chinese conglomerates is fundamentally different than are those of the Western hemisphere the risks are themselves quite different.
This all makes TSLA all the more amazingly unique. I choose that word, unique, purposefully. We all compare TSLA with other investment options. That is difficult because both Tesla and SpaceX have done things and are doing things that are unprecedented. When we try to see them in conventional eyes our eyes deceive us. One of the primary reasons for all that volatility and all that shorting is that conventionally Tesla should never have existed much less thrived.
Now, as I am doing my annual review I am struck by how little some of the more flamboyantly unconventional behavior by our CEO matters. Obviously much is distracting and some is offense to many of us. Then when examining in cold rationality what is happening I am astounded to realize that the innovation continues unabated. The operating environment in Tesla foments further innovation. Oddly, perhaps, I end this volatile and controversial year reaffirming my conviction that TSLA should remain as it is, one of my largest holdings.
The nearest OEM to Tesla's range is BYD, with perhaps BMW and Hyundai/Kia next for cars only, and VAG as a factor if they survive as is. Otherwise there only GWM, Geely and, in the EU at least, Stellantis. I posted a bit about BYD today. Each of those others have huge legacy impediments, including GWM which has a legacy as a Magna-style Tier One and contract manufacturer. All in all, none are really approaching Tesla overall.
Finally, Magna remains unremarked, mostly but they do have BEV technologies and are expanding those:
It is easy to ignore Magna but they are very skilled at contract manufacturing and they are becoming adept at EV technology. Remember the IPace, built by Magna-Steyr and very successful initially although JLR left them static while others evolved. Still, we need to monitor Magna. Few may remember that long ago in 2015:
Magna-Steyr and the Canadian operations have continued investments after that.
Magna sells automotive battery pack business to Samsung SDI
Deal includes production and development sites and contracts
What devlopments are next? I fully expect that some (e.g. GM, Ford, Stelantis) will be using Magna for innovation and smaller volume production. Since Magna-Steyr already has made cars for nearly every EU OEM I fully expect the EV model ranges will have Magna products appearing soon.
With those developments and:
Magna Enhances ADAS Capabilities by Joining 5G Innovation Program
Magna remains regularly as a potential investment. I have been in and out of MGA from time to time, less deeply because fo continuing issues of corporate control.
So from year end perspective I once again decide the TSLA future is bright, so I'll stay as is, HODL.
MGA might well reappear in my sights depending on the next few months.
This was all is response to BYD, of which I had just completed my review and decided to remain a watcher, not an investor. Too much unmitigated risk for me!
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
This "regulatory approval" continues to Not Be A Thing that is actually preventing robotaxis.
As repeatedly pointed out, RTs are regulated by individual states- and it's legal right now as in today to put robotaxis on the roads of many US states. With no "regulatory approval" needed.
Tesla has not done so because they do not have a working Robotaxi.
The moment they do they can put it on the road that day in at least some states, and after filing a declaratory form (again requiring no "approval" just filing) in a number of others.
In the remaining states there is also regulatory approval--- RTS aren't permitted by law period because they haven't passed any laws allowing them under any circumstances yet. Once they are on the road in the first bunch of states- assuming safe operation there, it will encourage the remaining states to pass laws on the topic.
The EU will be a different story of course, but not even FSDb, introduced in the US over 3 years ago, is allowed there right now- even "normal" FSD is nerfed over there-- so THAT will be slowed by regulations-- but not here.
All that said- I agree you'll see the bot doing useful work in a factory well before you see RTs for exactly the reasons outlined- much narrowed scope of function needed, and far fewer edge cases to worry about. Plus (in many, though not all) factory settings the risk to living things is vastly lower.
But "regulation" red herrings ain't why.
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