Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[wipster]

Ralphie, that you?

You'll shoot your eye out...

 

[Electroman]

Most Innovative Companies 2023: Reaching New Heights in Uncertain Times

Companies that both prioritize innovation and make sure that they are ready to act are widening the gap over less capable competitors.

www.bcg.com

Most Innovative Companies 2023 ranked by Boston Consulting Group:
1 Apple
2 Tesla (+3)
3 Amazon
4 Alphabet
5 Microsoft (-3)
6 Moderna (+1)
7 Samsung (-1)
8 Huawei
9 BYD
10 Siemens (+10)

Moderna ??

 

[hobbes]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1739530151782678961

https://twitter.com/x/status/1739528838265160020

 

[Sunlight]

In ICE vehicles you're probably correct. But what if the Gen 3 is a really small car? Foldable rear seats are doable and luggage can be kept in a well-designed frunk. I concur, no falcons, but in a small car, 2 doors (or 4 with half size rear suicides and no pillar). $25,000 USD, with probable rebates or credits on top of that, and this beautiful thing will change history... for the good!

Hope all of y'all had a most excellent western holiday and more importantly, a day off! Gonna be a wild month coming up methinks.

Owning a BMW i3 for 6 years has convinced me that 'suicide doors' are a disaster and practically unuseable. They drive us crazy....

Just getting people or things in and out of the back seat is mission impossible - unless you have about 10 feet clear.
They may look cool but I hate them with a passion.

Now if the i3 had sensible doors (and wheels), it would be even more wonderful

 

[UkNorthampton]

Traditionally a ICE car has a hump in the center of each seat row and an engine (that takes up a large amount of space) in front or rear.

An EV (especially so for Tesla) doesn't have the hump dividing rows and doesn't have a engine in the front or rear in a way that takes away storage space or cabin space.

Honorable mention to the 12v battery here as taking up more space in the ICE (usually in the same space as the above mentioned engine but not always), in contrast the newer Li-ion 16v used in a Tesla takes up less space and can be tucked in such that it doesn't affect storage.

Now once you have that advantage you can split it between cabin space and storage space as needed. If they need it to have traditional seating for 4 in a small car that would be a 2 seater if ICE they can, or if they want they can focus more on storage and do the rear facing jump seat(s) like in the Model S but scaled down.

As to the doors if the car is small enough a trunk or hatch storage space could be deleted or shrunken considerably allowing the option to shift the "greenhouse" towards the front or rear in ways you wouldn't with an ICE (because that would be an engine bay), that could make space available for a different amount/size/shape of door(s).

So realistically depending on how small the car is it could be 3 or 4 seats in an EV that would be 2 seats and worse storage for an ICE.

I'd have previously said make the smaller Tesla into a Golf/Polo equivalent.

Now perhaps I'd say Honda Jazz/Fit - more upright seating (population getting older, better view, more SUV-like), seats 5 (enough room for larger childseats)- has folding rear seats for lots of luggage/shopping. Take advantage of EV packaging advantages for more interior space. Plenty of other choices, but something unfussy would be good. Just works, reliability, frugality. Low insurance costs would be important to many.

 

[Frizer]

Moderna is on the innovators list for their cancer vaccines. A really big deal if initial trials are confirmed.

 

[cliff harris]

Stockholm syndrome: (n) describes the psychological condition of a victim who identifies with and empathizes with their captor or abuser and their goals.

Sweden has become a gangster’s paradise – and a case study in how not to integrate migrants

Its liberal migration and criminal justice systems have incubated a shocking sub-culture of violence

www.telegraph.co.uk

I'd be very wary of any article in that newspaper, especially if it mentions immigration or crime. Its an incredibly partisan newspaper that loves nothing more than warning people that immigrants are all murderers and rapists, or worse still, may lower house prices.

 

[Max Plaid]

The O-rings were Challenger. Columbia was foam damage to the leading edge of the wing.

And damn my old addled brains too... this was the thermal tiles coming off at launch, causing burn-up on re-entry, right?

 

[Usain]

Can't be too much smaller. 7 out of 10 top selling cars in Europe so far in 2023 has four doors.

The Gen 3 can be smaller if the price is right.

Don't forget, the Gen 3 car will be super-cheap and it will qualify for incentives on top of that. It will be perfect as a second car for commuters or young people who can finally afford a new car. It will offer FSD as an option. It will be super-cheap to own.

But most of all, it will be a Tesla.

 

[unk45]

I'd have previously said make the smaller Tesla into a Golf/Polo equivalent.

Now perhaps I'd say Honda Jazz/Fit - more upright seating (population getting older, better view, more SUV-like), seats 5 (enough room for larger childseats)- has folding rear seats for lots of luggage/shopping. Take advantage of EV packaging advantages for more interior space. Plenty of other choices, but something unfussy would be good. Just works, reliability, frugality. Low insurance costs would be important to many.

Those quasi-SUV-like small cars are incredibly popular in many markets, usually, but not always, far from the cheapest option but generally affordable. A side issue is the huge number of multi-vehicle households that have one fo those as a second urban runabout. That style and format fits even better the niche currently populated by the UK's TopGear list, some being quite a bit larger:

https://www.topgear.com/car-news/top-gear-advice/these-are-best-small-suvs-you-can-buy-right-now

Their Volvo XC40 Recharge (I have one) is much larger and the new EX30, while smaller, still is not exactly svelte.
The Jazz-Fit is ideal size, but a bit small for many markets. The smaller Citroën C3, Peugeot 208 etc fit ideally with Fit, and can thrive worldwide except in North America, perhaps Australia and other wide-open space countries.
There is an obvious solution in my opinion. Tesla can easily have virtually identical underpinnings with human sizes quite variable. It makes enormous sense to have models produced in Germany, China, Mexico and other new locations that suit those needs, including some Geely-syle LECV practical options structured to be prepared for semi-autonomous or completely autonomous operation.

LEVC | London Electric Vehicle Company

LEVC is a leading manufacturer and retailer of electric vehicles in the UK, including the iconic TX electric black cab.

levc.com

The not-so-secret sauce for LEVC is that they use almost entirely Geely Group technology.
I do not suggest that those are perfect models. I do believe that we are now at the point for Tesla to apply their technologies and manufacturing prowess to those categories because those are the urban demands of the recent past and future. Thus far those have not been on current radar for Tesla.

It undoubtably is now time!
@UkNorthampton is located in one of those sweet spots that is not obvious to outsiders since it is a not-large urban area surrounded with less urban areas. Such areas are all over the world, but individually do not seem so attractive but collectively are huge. Such areas, like that one, have very attractive markets for larger vehicles too.
[note: I admit to potential bias since i worked there for several years.]

 

[Usain]

Honorable mention to the 12v battery here as taking up more space in the ICE (usually in the same space as the above mentioned engine but not always), in contrast the newer Li-ion 16v used in a Tesla takes up less space and can be tucked in such that it doesn't affect storage.

The Gen 3 is expected to have a 48v low voltage battery, right? Do we know how much space it takes up?

 

[mongo]

The Gen 3 is expected to have a 48v low voltage battery, right? Do we know how much space it takes up?

Based on Cybertruck, the medium voltage battery does not take up much space.

 

[dhanson865]

Based on Cybertruck, the medium voltage battery does not take up much space.
View attachment 1003089

The Gen 3 is expected to have a 48v low voltage battery, right? Do we know how much space it takes up?

One of the review videos of the cybertruck had Lars and Franz in it and one of them mentioned the battery being 16v (possible he misspoke, but I'm taking that as correct for now)

So I'm assuming even through the systems on the CT are mostly 48V the LV battery is still 16V.

Keep in mind the LV battery just needs enough power to open the contactor for the HV battery to turn the vehicle on and be a very tiny buffer for the LV system. It doesn't have to be 48v itself to do those functions.

 

[MP3Mike]

One of the review videos of the cybertruck had Lars and Franz in it and they mentioned the battery being 16v.

So I'm assuming even through the systems on the CT are mostly 48V the LV battery is still 16V.

No, they only mentioned that it can be jumped by 16v, and that there is a boost converter that will bring it up to 48v to jump the Cybertruck.

It is very clearly labeled as a MV (medium voltage) battery which means 48v.

 

[dhanson865]

No, they only mentioned that it can be jumped by 16v, and that there is a boost converter that will bring it up to 48v to jump the Cybertruck.

It is very clearly labeled as a MV (medium voltage) battery which means 48v.

I see no label in the image you shared, would you like to share a URL to such label?

 

[mongo]

No, they only mentioned that it can be jumped by 16v, and that there is a boost converter that will bring it up to 48v to jump the Cybertruck.

It is very clearly labeled as a MV (medium voltage) battery which means 48v.

I see no label in the image you shared, would you like to share a URL to such label?

Indeed,
Bolts are M6x27 if anyone wants to pixel count...

 

[unk45]

Moderna is on the innovators list for their cancer vaccines. A really big deal if initial trials are confirmed.

Moderna and BioNTech have very similar technologies and aims. The principal differences are that Moderna does manufacturing while BioNTech licenses. Otherwise Mderna is American while BioNTech is more colorful: Chief Medical Doctor is a Turkish immigrant to Germany, as is the CEO, her husband. Both are MD's with deep backgrounds in Oncology. Their colorful backgrounds and huge successes have capitalized by interest for some years. Moderna is equally capable but far less colorful.

As investments both have skyrocketed with COVID-19 success, for both their real focus has been with cancer vaccines. Both were bargains, both may skyrocket again depending on their success with cancer vaccines.

This field will have gigantic impact during the next decade, but when and what specifically depends on the vagaries of clinical trials and research choices. For investors, both can turn around a new vaccine candidate in days or weeks, but clinical testing takes mostly years. Thus both are speculative. I almost bet on BioNTech some time ago, just pre-pandemic, but missed the majority of appreciation.

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1739670599960576233

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

I'd have previously said make the smaller Tesla into a Golf/Polo equivalent.

Now perhaps I'd say Honda Jazz/Fit - more upright seating (population getting older, better view, more SUV-like), seats 5 (enough room for larger childseats)- has folding rear seats for lots of luggage/shopping. Take advantage of EV packaging advantages for more interior space. Plenty of other choices, but something unfussy would be good. Just works, reliability, frugality. Low insurance costs would be important to many.

So, a Bolt (Ampera e)/Bolt EUV, then?

I don't think I can emphasize enough how obvious this is.

Manufacturers started running away from sedans, then Tesla released the Model 3 and started stomping all over their existing sedan offerings.

Manufacturers have now chased larger vehicles because people will pay more for them, so any company that sells a good, (relatively) cheap, passenger-centric roomy subcompact EV can dominate the small car space in the USA, and sell well around the world.

Even before GM stopped producing the Bolt, Barra was already talking about quickly developing a replacement and it became official in July 2023.

Demographic shift in the USA:

How has the structure of American households changed over time?

Single-person households in the US increased from 6.9 million in 1960 to 37.9 million in 2022.

usafacts.org

 

[2daMoon]

Demographic shift in the USA:

How has the structure of American households changed over time?

Single-person households in the US increased from 6.9 million in 1960 to 37.9 million in 2022.

usafacts.org

Those numbers are somewhat misleading and would be better represented as percentage of the population in 1960 and in 2022.

Looking at it that way, the percentage of Single Households has risen from 4% to 11% over that period. This is a 2.75x.
As opposed to the 5.5x represented by the population count change over time shown in the headline that doesn't take into account the population growth.

Single Households are increasing, just not at the rate the reference implies.

Go Gen3! There is plenty of market there to be had.