Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Usain]

Happy and safe pre-new year everybody.

So you put in a pre-order for delivery of the new year? Smart move.

 

[Usain]

Another thought.

In addition to improving margins, this whole "Foundation Series" move might help the pre-order conversion rate.

If you turn down an offer for a Foundation Series, will it make you want the regular edition that much more?

After all, if you missed out on the first offer, you won't want to miss out the second time.

 

[JustSaying]

Around about the same time as that, I worked for a UK company called datastream/ICV. Our competitors were reuters and bloomberg. AFAIK at the time, reuters were basically a financial data services company, even back then. In other words they were very *in* with people working on trading floors.
A few years of that, and extensive research since has taught me that there is a HUGE industry that is deciated to one goal:
Make
People
Trade
Big companies make billions from getting people to buy, then to sell, then buy, then sell. Trade baby! Trade! They make money on the orders regardless which direction it goes. To enable this ludicrously profitable setup you need agitprop clickbait (business insider, cnbc, seeking alpha), a complicit mainstream media (cnn, wall st journal), a host of brokers that offer discounts for frequent trading, and 'live news feed' style services like reuters who will give you second-by-second updates that you should trade on RIGHT NOW, before you even finish the headline.

If Tesla were struggling financially, these same people would run enthusiastic clickbait to drive them up, like they do with Lucid, Rivian, so people would buy stock. They pimp the losers and trash the winners, all part of the constant cycle to get dumb money to keep paying those trading fees...

Yes I am cynical, but also I speak from experience. Buy and HOLD. Consider making a trade every six months at most. Its working well for me YMMV

A stock broker once told me that his was in "the moving business not the storage business."
Stuck with me...

 

[Unpilot]

Darn those Tesla "killer robots".
Plus all the coming competition.

If I just read the headlines I would be selling.

I'm not. HODL.

 

[EQC_]

I’m seeing a few videos from the electric Viking and others suggesting that the model Y juniper will see as much as 20 percent longer range because of a new CATL battery pack.
So I’m assuming that if this is true it will probably be available in Canada but not the US as US built Y’s don’t use CATL batteries. Did I get that right or is there some sort of technology cross over into US made batteries. I’m not up on developing battery tech so be gentle on me.

Anyway. A 20 percent increase in range would get an immediate deposit from us as we tow almost all the time on long trips.

Happy and safe pre-new year everybody.

I know nothing of new developments...but:

Historically, I believe Tesla has mainly used CATL as a supplier for Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP) batteries, for the standard range versions.

I believe the US Standard Range Y actually used early generation 4680 cells, but assuming similar range could be done with LFP cells, it is interesting to note that adding 20% of range to a 2023 Model Y AWD (279 miles in the US, per fueleconomy.gov) would get it up to 334 miles. The 2023 Model Y Long Range AWD is rated at 330 miles in the US.

As I understand it, the Long Range batteries are kept healthy by not charging above 80% whenever possible, while the LFP batteries should be charged to 100% regularly, so an LFP battery rated for the same range could actually be more useful and provide more regularly-usable range for those who need it.

I see a couple obvious strategies Tesla could use:
1) Use fewer of the upgraded LFP cells, and keep range near that 279 mile limit and reduce cost for a standard-range Y
2) Produce a US Long Range with ~330 miles via US-made cells, and an international Long Range with 330 miles via upgraded LFP cells from China/CATL.

Since US-made cells used for US-delivered cars has distinct advantages in the tax code, the above could help Tesla minimize exports from the US, and maximize the use of US cells in US cars.

Naturally, there are many variables here (including how fast 4680 production ramps up, how advancements in 4680 and other Tesla cells continue, production vs. demand for various Tesla production lines, etc.), so there's many ways this could play out...

*Edited to note the use of early generation 4680's in US standard range Y's...

 

[GrandEnigma]

Founders only comes with white interior!
That’s enough to make a lot of people wait, right? White in a truck, wtf
I think that is how they are tempering these foundation orders a bit

It is just the door inserts and dash insert, not the seats and other trim bits like in other models. None the less, is a curious choice for these first vehicles.

 

[uscbucsfan]

I know nothing of new developments...but:

Historically, I believe Tesla has mainly used CATL as a supplier for Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP) batteries, for the standard range versions.

Interestingly, adding 20% of range to a 2023 Model Y AWD (279 miles in the US, per fueleconomy.gov) would get it up to 334 miles. The 2023 Model Y Long Range AWD is rated at 330 miles in the US.

As I understand it, the Long Range batteries are kept healthy by not charging above 80% whenever possible, while the LFP batteries should be charged to 100% regularly, so an LFP battery rated for the same range could actually be more useful and provide more regularly-usable range for those who need it.

I see a couple obvious strategies Tesla could use:
1) Use fewer of the upgraded LFP cells, and keep range near that 279 mile limit and reduce cost for a standard-range Y
2) Produce a US Long Range with ~330 miles via US-made cells, and an international Long Range with 330 miles via upgraded LFP cells from China/CATL.

Since US-made cells used for US-delivered cars has distinct advantages in the tax code, the above could help Tesla minimize exports from the US, and maximize the use of US cells in US cars.

MY AWD is not LFP, it was 4680, but isn't currently being made.

 

[wtlloyd]

Again, I'll say, the Foundation Series is mostly about forcing sales of the accessory options, gaining an earlier retrieval of pre-opening costs involved in producing these options.

 

[capster]

It is just the door inserts and dash insert, not the seats and other trim bits like in other models. None the less, is a curious choice for these first vehicles.

I like the white trim—it helps lighten up a vehicle especially when you first open the door.

The fact they called out the white decor in the Foundation Series order made me wonder about its availability and price to order in non-Foundation Series CT’s. It‘s a small thing, but it did help incline me to order mine.

I would’ve taken white seats if offered.

 

[GrandEnigma]

I like the white trim—it helps lighten up a vehicle especially when you first open the door.

The fact they called out the white decor in the Foundation Series order made me wonder about its availability and price to order in non-Foundation Series CT’s. It‘s a small thing, but it did help incline me to order mine.

I would’ve taken white seats if offered.

Same, and agree, helps make it feel a bit more airy and adds visual interest.

 

[capster]

Yes, I fully understand that they are retaining their reservation, but not ordering the Founder's Edition. As I've stated before, I doubt few (if any) will cancel their reservation, as there is *no* real benefit to anyone to cause them to cancel it (the $100 deposit being returned seems trivial). Most will simply delay their order until such time as the {available offering, available price, their financials, and their need/desire for the vehicle} all line up to make them place the order, whether it be in 2024, 2025, 2026, or beyond. It is the reservation-deferring rate, not the (virtually 0) reservation cancellation rate, which makes me certain that Tesla's estimated delivery dates on their order page are actual estimated delivery dates for newly placed reservations (assuming the new reserver takes Tesla up on their first offer to configure/order).

Hence my interest in how long they can maintain Founder's Edition, and how they alter the actual order price after that. Obviously, for whatever value <X> one assumes for CyberTruck *production* in 2024, if Tesla were to sell all <X> at Founder's Edition pricing / packaging, that is a quite bullish sign for actual demand. Conversely, if Tesla loops through the entire reservation backlog offering the Founder's Edition and gets so few takers that they loop back around with original-reservation-pricing, that would be a quite bearish sign for actual demand. Reality will almost certainly be somewhere in between these two extremes, of course...but where between them is currently unknown. Will the first round of non-Founder's-Edition be current pricing but ala-carte instead of only with all the options in the Founder's Edition? Will there be a price cut in 2024 to increase the reservation-to-order conversion rate, and if so, when and by how much? These are the unknowns now, but as they become known, this real-world-example will almost certainly become an exercise in price discovery that will likely be the source of many an MBA case study down the road.

I hadn‘t heard that Tesla is offering more than 1000 Foundation Series CT’s. And, I don’t imagine that they’ll have to go through that that many reservations to find buyers for 1000.

There was something upthread about them reopening ordering, but that doesn’t necessitate that they offer a higher total number of trucks. It could be that some orders were canceled or disqualified.

Indeed, the exclusivity is part of the appeal, so Tesla would be reneging in a way if they upped the number of Foundation Series CT’s they‘re selling after having already taken orders when there was a 1000 Foundation Series CT limit.

 

[GrandEnigma]

Could also be that it was 1,000ea for the AWD and Cyberbeast. Though it seems the Cyberbeast is more limited as when I got my invite in the second round it was already out to H2 of 2024.

 

[SmokyPeat]

I could care less about exclusivity. I'm interested in profit margins. If Tesla has the demand for 2500+ Foundation series Cybertrucks at the elevated margins, I'm all for it.

 

[EQC_]

Indeed, the exclusivity is part of the appeal, so Tesla would be reneging in a way if they upped the number of Foundation Series CT’s they‘re selling after having already taken orders when there was a 1000 Foundation Series CT limit.

I'm a bit weary of the word choice there -- reneging.

Did Tesla ever make any actual statements about the 1000 limit, or any other figure? As far as I can tell, Tesla only described it as "Limited-Edition," and I don't think Tesla has ever specified a number.

I believe 1000 was an early customer assumption, but may of course also have been a quote from a random Tesla employee that made their own assumption when asked, and somebody picked it up and it got passed around. Likewise, when Foundation series invites restarted, the larger figures also seem to be non-official assumptions or guesses, or hearsay from supposed Tesla employees.

Tesla fan/news websites and other media did seem to "report" the 1000 number...but I'm not seeing a Tesla source for the figure. So, again, it looks like just an assumption. For example, InsideEV's claimed it was limited to 1000 in this article:

Tesla Wants Cybertruck Reservation Holders To Pay Over $120,000 For Early Deliveries

Tesla is inviting Cybertruck reservation holders to configure their Foundation Series trucks, which start at over $120,000 and max out well over $135,000.

insideevs.com

The invite says Limited...but doesn't specify a number:

And another sub-forum couldn't seem to find any actual statement from Tesla on the numbers:

Source for production of 1,000 Foundation Series?

Is there an official Tesla source saying there will only be 1,000 Foundation Series Cybertrucks or is this all conjecture based of previous Founders Editions? I've read every word on my Foundation offer email and build page, and see nothing mentioning 1,000 units (or I'm blind). Currently it...

teslamotorsclub.com

*Edited for formatting, and to note that the 1000 figure may have also been assumed and "reported" by the media.

 

[capster]

I'm a bit weary of the word choice there -- reneging. Did Tesla ever make any actual statements about the 1000 limit, or any other figure? As far as I can tell, Tesla only described it as "Limited-Edition," and I don't think Tesla has ever specified a number. I believe 1000 was an early customer assumption, but may of course also have been a quote from a random Tesla employee that made their own assumption when asked, and somebody picked it up and it got passed around. Likewise, when Foundation series invites restarted, the larger figures also seem to be non-official assumptions or guesses, or hearsay from supposed Tesla employees.

The invite says Limited...but doesn't specify a number:
View attachment 1003762

And another sub-forum couldn't seem to find any actual statement from Tesla on the numbers:

Source for production of 1,000 Foundation Series?

Is there an official Tesla source saying there will only be 1,000 Foundation Series Cybertrucks or is this all conjecture based of previous Founders Editions? I've read every word on my Foundation offer email and build page, and see nothing mentioning 1,000 units (or I'm blind). Currently it...

teslamotorsclub.com

If Tesla never themselves stated 1000, then they aren’t reneging of course.

 

[Drumheller]

Any doubt that TSLA is fully controlled by option makers and Tesla positive news is irrelevant? Or am I wrong and there is a reason for today's movement?

 

[2daMoon]

Let me check my score card...

2024 can't get here soon enough​

Score card additions:

• Model 3 Highland US release in 2024

• GigaMexico construction in 2024

• Potential GigaGujarat announcement in 2024

...followed by the chorus from above
​

When was the last time Tesla was entering a year with this much on the menu? (and I'm sure I've missed some)

 

[Webeevdrivers]

So you put in a pre-order for delivery of the new year? Smart move.

No. No pre-orders. Wife still has a reservation for the cybertruck but thinking it might not be the right way to go for us. One nice thing about everybody switching to the tesla plugs is there are so many more choices. Not sure what we will do come 2025. Car, truck, SUV. Sure did enjoy our model x test drive the other day. Whatever it is it has to have a 3500 or greater tow capacity and better range than our existing model Y. The model X checks a lot of boxes.

Time will tell.

Cheers.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I'm sure I've missed some)

Killer Robots on Mars. 'Coz everybody know killer robots gonna follow us to Mars. /s

... or at least, to the U.K.

 

[Skryll]

No. No pre-orders. Wife still has a reservation for the cybertruck but thinking it might not be the right way to go for us. One nice thing about everybody switching to the tesla plugs is there are so many more choices. Not sure what we will do come 2025. Car, truck, SUV. Sure did enjoy our model x test drive the other day. Whatever it is it has to have a 3500 or greater tow capacity and better range than our existing model Y. The model X checks a lot of boxes.

Time will tell.

Cheers.

And then there is a difference in autopilot / self driving capabilities, workflow ease, software updates adding and improving features for free all the time, performance / $ etc