GhostSkater
Member
Since others have made some quite good predictions (or let’s call wishes), I will make a selfish one, one that will make SP 20x 
I will be employed by Tesla by year end
I will be employed by Tesla by year end
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
PREDICTION:-
2024 will be a great year for 4680 production .... I told Drew to mention this in an earnings call...
So, why not have the limited supply of Nevada 2170s go to the model 3 first,
so the $7500 rebate goes to the car with the lower ($3K currently for long-range) MSRP?
If Model Y uses fewer 2170s, or 2170s can be sourced from elsewhere, US Model 3 can use more 2170s....
The other variables for 2024 are the Highland Model 3 and the new improved performance Model 3.
These new variants will lift demand by virtue of being new and improved...
If a shutdown is needed at Fremont to phase in Highland production, then Q1 2024 might be the ideal time to do that.
So production shutdowns might be a drag on Model 3 production at Fremont in 2024.
My impression is a lot of equipment has been installed to increase Model Y production at Austin.
I think the south end extension is likely to be mostly office space and the new multi-level car park and rumour hiring spree could be mostly office workers but I think will mean significantly more production line workers.
In concert with that the new west side end-of-line and staging area is large, suggesting significantly increased production.
So there is lot of evidence that production and Austin will significantly increase in 2024, and that should more than cancel out any Fremont Model 3 shutdowns.
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Buckminster
Well-Known Member
PREDICTION:
Starship will achieve orbit, re-entry and refueling in 2024 and when the profundity of that hits, it will meaningfully move TSLA stock.
Tesla Energy will be the main profit driver. 90 cents of each additional dollar in Megapack gross profits will flow straight to the bottom line. The realization that the megapack business has better operating leverage than the auto business will also meaningfully move the stock.
Cybertruck will reach a 125k annual run rate by q4 and demand will be running at least at a quarter million year. At that point, it will just be a matter of copying and pasting the existing line. Tesla will have become a legit player in the North American full size pickup market. Arguably the most lucrative auto segment in the world.
TSLA will almost certainly break out above $300 this year.
If FSD comes out of beta and take rate meaningfully increases, $500 is possible. No robotaxis needed.
Starship will achieve orbit, re-entry and refueling in 2024 and when the profundity of that hits, it will meaningfully move TSLA stock.
Tesla Energy will be the main profit driver. 90 cents of each additional dollar in Megapack gross profits will flow straight to the bottom line. The realization that the megapack business has better operating leverage than the auto business will also meaningfully move the stock.
Cybertruck will reach a 125k annual run rate by q4 and demand will be running at least at a quarter million year. At that point, it will just be a matter of copying and pasting the existing line. Tesla will have become a legit player in the North American full size pickup market. Arguably the most lucrative auto segment in the world.
TSLA will almost certainly break out above $300 this year.
If FSD comes out of beta and take rate meaningfully increases, $500 is possible. No robotaxis needed.
Clearly a side-by-Cybe. Or maybe a Cyber-side.
navguy12
Active Member
I hope for a one day dip on Tuesday.Yes, but, more importantly, what will the Street be claiming Tesla "missed" on in Q4 2023?
/s
My routine, yearly, tax free investment account purchase of more TSLA.
Is it just my imagination, or does it look to anybody else that Tesla has turned their stores into engineering recruiting centers? There was always an aspect of this, but passing by two stores for the first time in a while hit it home for me.
To me that means a few things that are positive for the stock, but curious how others feel.
To me that means a few things that are positive for the stock, but curious how others feel.
Krugerrand
Meow
Nooooooooooooooo -
Do you know how much planning and hair pulling is required in designing and building a fortress!? I will not do this again.
However, $800 SP in 2024 and the party is at my place and everyone is invited.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Here on TMC on Jan 28, 2022, Troy was clear that Tesla 50% growth wouldn't happen in 2023/24:
Looking ahead, I'll make my prediction for Tesla 2024 Production as follows: 2.53M
- Fremont: 600K (no GA3 shutdown before Model 2 from Austin)
- Shanghai 1,100K ('cuz they're at that run rate already)
- Austin: 475K
- 100K Cybertrucks (as I discussed back in Nov)
- 365K Model Y (1 line, 2 shifts, 7 days/wk, 339 prod days)
- Berlin: 365K
- 1 Model Y GA line, 2 shifts, 6 day's/wk, 290 prod days)
- GA line: 42 sec/cycle, 84 cars/hr, 15 hrs/day, 1260 cars/day
- NB: 50% CAGR from 0.5M/yr in 2020 is 2.53M in 2024 (not news!)
Next: Giga Texas battery estimates
#predict
Drumheller
Active Member
Whoa. Thought I'd see coast to coast fsd drive prior to people invited to the mountain. Perhaps the cat is in a celebratory mode.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Think "large-scale pilot runs", as in 5K Roadsters per year. Maybe also S/X Plaid+ when the time comes to turn off the taps for Japanese 18650s and make the cut-over to 4680s. Even if that's 100K/yr S/X, at a pack size of 123KWh that's still only 12.9 GWh/yr or only slightly higher than the original plan for 10GWh/yr at Kato Rd. Or, it's still 10 GWh/yr and only 81K S/X/R (which is still over 20K/qtr). I'd go with this last option.
Krugerrand
Meow
Apparently, I can be bought and it’ll only take $800 SP in 2024. Who knew?
Elon’s prediction of “this year we kill the ICE” will happen. Like always, later than predicted. At the same time with his other “prediction” that margins can go to(wards) 0%.
I predict margins will go under 12% (and everything will fly off the lots).
It’s time they give the real death blow to ICE. Get ready.
Happy New Year and Thank You to all who share pertinent information in this thread, not useless noise. You know who you are.
Lots of assumptions on the charging curve of the cybertruck out there. All, really bad. It would be nice to see a proper test out there. Properly pre-conditioned etc.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Well I for one don't think it's always been clear: there were always 2 halfs to the eligibility requirement, one for the EV part, and the other for the battery. It was common interpretation during H2 2023 that using Chinese batteries would only disqualify your purchase for the $3,750 bty component, but you'd still get the $3,750 EV component if your new car met all the Made-in-USA sourcing req'd.
That is only a ~$3-4k price reduction. Do you really think that would have much of an impact? I would guess interest rates are actually more critical.
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