Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[EVMeister]

I've been going around asking several different groups. And for the current 20s generation. Unfortunately many got turned off tesla by what musk spewed out on Twitter.

I actually pushed the envelop and went further and asked them to put a number on this Elon Musk reputation discount. So for Equal EV spec cars,tesla will have to be 7000 cheaper for them to consider a Tesla.

Those "several different groups" might not be as diverse as you think, if that's true.

 

[Causalien]

Funny how it’s only 7k to buy someone.

Ya, I was surprised too. I thought no amount can convince them and 7k is easy peasy for tesla.

 

[cliff harris]

You think oil and natural gas will be such a stranded asset by 2029, when >90% of all existing light vehicles, and a far higher % of all other transport, plus the majority of home space and water heating, will still be running on it, that Saudi Aramco crashes to "didly squat" by then?

Valuations of a company are based on the current value of future returns. If the end of a company is in sight, even if its a fair way off, then the accepted P/E ratio will tumble down, taking the company valuation with it.
I don't think oil companies will be worth nothing in 2029, but I think its fair to say they will be worth noticeably less.

 

[Causalien]

Those "several different groups" might not be as diverse as you think, if that's true.

oh well. I can only do survey with ppl around me.

But I do get the weird impression that they spew the same complaints. Even the way it's worded sometimes. And I have this 6th sense now and can feel it coming.

 

[aubreymcfato]

Musk has been very vocal on new very political themes for a few years now. Wokeness, illegal immigration, COVID, you name it. It's there on X, it's verboten to discuss it here, but it's still there for everyone to see. If you don't follow Musk and don't read all his tweets you miss *a lot*. There is no mistery whatsover about where he leans politically and how things shifted in the last years.
Even on climate change his message is very mild, to be generous: the things he says the most is that short-term people are too pessimists and long-term too optimists. The problem with this message is that I know what he means (I've followed him for a decade and know how to weight his assessments and timetables and optimism) but not really the general public and especially his new political friends... in Italy he's cozy with Meloni&co, who is the literal farthest-right govern since Mussolini (and it also the "literal" party of neo-fascists, she has been a nostalgic of fascism for all her political life). As an example among others, she wants to make "surrogate pregnancy" a "universal felony", a sort of sin against the State. I really don't understand what Musk has in common with her and her party...

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

'Funding secured' has been discussed many times already. Clearly not worth repeating, as the latest exchange shows. Stop it.

The flirting with everything else Elon says on X/Twitter also needs to end.

 

[Mengy]

Okay, so now that we're done debating topics already long decided....

Looks like the market is fairly red this morning, and TSLA dropped to around $236 in pre market. Got to admit, this is not the behavior I expected for the start of 2024, especially given Powell's recent guidance and the record P&D numbers we just posted.

 

[elasalle]

Okay, so now that we're done debating topics already long decided....

Looks like the market is fairly red this morning, and TSLA dropped to around $236 in pre market. Got to admit, this is not the behavior I expected for the start of 2024, especially given Powell's recent guidance and the record P&D numbers we just posted.

Job report jitters , pre market can be ignored…
Powell said something too good to be true… soft landing.. time will tell
MM can begin scoring goals before the referee blows the whistle at 9:30 … yeah the game ain’t rigged

 

[phantasms]

Okay, so now that we're done debating topics already long decided....

Looks like the market is fairly red this morning, and TSLA dropped to around $236 in pre market. Got to admit, this is not the behavior I expected for the start of 2024, especially given Powell's recent guidance and the record P&D numbers we just posted.

End of the great 2023 dead cat macro bounce.

 

[Artful Dodger]

yeah the game ain’t rigged

Jordan Belfort on the rigged casino: "Wall Street Is Evil. Here's Why We Need It."

Wolf of Wall Street Explains How to Become a Hedge Fund Billionaire (Jan 03, 2024)

 

[Cattledog]

France was incredible this year, but if I understand it correctly was due to incentives ending on 31/12. So demand was pulled ahead, we'll see what happens in 2024. But great for them, of course. I just don't think these numbers are "organic" and sustainable.

What "disappointed" me (please take the word with a grain of salt) is that European sales started with a blast (95k in Q1, due to price reductions) then slowly decrease till Q4, historically the best of the year.
Now, we understand France, and probably demand was pulled ahead also for Germany, because of incentives ending abruptly.
Still, we know that in Q1 Berlin was ramping up production, and then stopped increasing around April. We (or at least I) don't know why.
We have been told it was for cost reduction and optimization, but in my naivety I thought that a steep price reduction in mid-January would have generated enough demand in Europe for Berlin to continue to ramp up through the whole 2023... It was not like that.
In general, it was a great 2023, especially compared to 2022, but we should be the first to recognize that we basically missed *two quarters* in 2022... So not a great comparison.
"Anticlimactic" is then not the wrong word, IMHO.
"Disappointing" I would use only for Germany, which decreased through the whole year, but is a very important market for Tesla, for obvious reasons.

I don't want to complain about a very good 2023, overall, but try to understand what's the play in Europe for Tesla. What to expect for 2024?

View attachment 1006145

Somehow Italy and Spain need to be turned into 30K/year. They won't be Germany, France or England - the dynamics of their GDP and population would make that very difficult, but they somehow need to exceed the Nordics and be at least 2/3 UK, 1/2 France and Germany.

 

[UkNorthampton]

57% growth in Europe, not to shabby

https://twitter.com/x/status/1743021347528216714

View attachment 1006119

Supply constrained, not demand.

All time highs except for Germany, UK, Netherlands (maybe Switzerland?). New markets ignored (Turkey, Taiwan, Israel, UAE from Berlin, perhaps Jordan & Qatar? ). Sidenote about Teslas in Jordan. from 2019 ... TESLA Sightings in Jordan...

Lots of electric cars in Jordan. Up until 2019 there was no import tax on them and so it was affordable to bring in even second hand cars from California. Also, the king drives a MX P100D as per showroom staff in Amman. Also, a few superchargers in the country. I stopped at one on my way to Petra on day

1. Germany - confusion over subsidies, maybe economy down (often reported in worst of UK media, but personally doubtful if true), perhaps other things I'm unaware of. I'm sure German residents have better knowledge.
2. UK can only get 3 & Y from China, no Berlin-made cars. No subsidies for private sales, reduced tax for company cars, but big organisations have had lots of problems recently (economy, strikes, lack of funding). Plus customs/border problems + omnishambles.
3. Netherlands was an early adopter, only now are Tesla deliveries getting back towards previous peak.

So, the WORST cherry-pickable result across so many countries is a 9% fall against Tesla's record year in 2 of them. Just two out of many.

Great performance, which will be spun into nonsense FUD.

 

[Usain]

No they're not. Tesla is an energy company, batteries at the heart of everything....that will even run those bots I'm sure Drew looooves hearing that....plus, AI/robotics have nothing to do with the mission statement of the company.

The mission statement does need to be revised. And that's just fine. Tesla's mission is now even more ambitious than before. A new mission statement would reflect that.

 

[lascavarian]

I wonder how many weeks it will be before the 10 yr bond drops below 4% again?

 

[Usain]

It's being reported that the range decreases are due to updated EPA testing procedures / estimates. Not hardware changes.

But if that's true, why would it only affect Model Y?

And as I look ahead at the other posts since this one, why is nobody talking about it? A range hit, whatever the cause, is a lot more consequential than rehashing the "funding secured" stuff.

 

[FEERSUMENDJIN]

After hours OT:

Car and Driver's 0-to-150-to-0 Speed Test 2023​

View attachment 1005983

Spoiler: Spoiler

They didn't run the MS Plaid with the other vehicles because it got a nail in the tire.
At a later date, at a different location, they ran the MS Plaid and Lucid Air Sapphire. They blew away all the vehicles in the article (by 3+ seconds). Lucid outperforming the Plaid. The Sapphire is 2.5x the price of the Plaid at $250K. All of this was considered "unofficial" due to different location. "Very unofficially, the Sapphire's time of 15.5 seconds beat the Plaid's 16.2-second time"

What pish when everybody can see countless Plaid drag races online.

 

[UkNorthampton]

France was incredible this year, but if I understand it correctly was due to incentives ending on 31/12. So demand was pulled ahead, we'll see what happens in 2024. But great for them, of course. I just don't think these numbers are "organic" and sustainable.

What "disappointed" me (please take the word with a grain of salt) is that European sales started with a blast (95k in Q1, due to price reductions) then slowly decrease till Q4, historically the best of the year.
Now, we understand France, and probably demand was pulled ahead also for Germany, because of incentives ending abruptly.
Still, we know that in Q1 Berlin was ramping up production, and then stopped increasing around April. We (or at least I) don't know why.
We have been told it was for cost reduction and optimization, but in my naivety I thought that a steep price reduction in mid-January would have generated enough demand in Europe for Berlin to continue to ramp up through the whole 2023... It was not like that.
In general, it was a great 2023, especially compared to 2022, but we should be the first to recognize that we basically missed *two quarters* in 2022... So not a great comparison.
"Anticlimactic" is then not the wrong word, IMHO.
"Disappointing" I would use only for Germany, which decreased through the whole year, but is a very important market for Tesla, for obvious reasons.

I don't want to complain about a very good 2023, overall, but try to understand what's the play in Europe for Tesla. What to expect for 2024?

View attachment 1006145

In my non-TMC media bubble (FUD), the drumbeat for this year included

1. Usual charging, recall, lithium mining pictures of iron or copper mines nonsense FUD
2. Chinese cars are coming, wait until they do, they'll be cheaper (and better) than Teslas

 

[The Accountant]

I kept hearing all week that Q4 was the lowest quarter in Europe but it turned out to be higher than Q3 and Q2.
Not bad considering the interest rate environment.

 

[cusetownusa]

But if that's true, why would it only affect Model Y?

And as I look ahead at the other posts since this one, why is nobody talking about it? A range hit, whatever the cause, is a lot more consequential than rehashing the "funding secured" stuff.

Where are you getting that it only affects the Model Y? The new EPA testing requirements should affect all EVs...maybe some more than others.

 

[FEERSUMENDJIN]

When the S/X adopt the 48-volt architecture and four wheel steering/steer-by-wire, RHD S/X will likely follow in short order . . .

The next iteration of S will be RoboLimo. So will be 48V, everything by wire. so RHD irrelevant . Would love for a retractable steering wheel with paddle brakes, throttle.