Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MC3OZ]

No way production begins 1H. Maybe production start 4Q.

It's nice to see progress in Texas, but what's going on with the 4680 cell line expansion in Nevada? Or the semi factory expansion in Nevada? A whole lot of nothing there. Likewise giga Mexico?

We might get an update on these things in the earnings call.

The additional 4 lines for 4860 production at Austin is partially a short-term substitute for Nevada/Mexico.

As I mentioned in the poll thread the new car park at Austin is perhaps the 3rd biggest car park in the world. (11,000 spots?), looks like lots of new employees will be starting at Austin in 2024.

IMO the likely expansion/ramp in 2024 helps fund and de-risk new factories in 2025. Tesla may be able to build Mexico without dipping into the cash buffer.

 

[AndrewZ]

Considering that those tweets were from well over three years ago- I don't think so.

Going back in time 3-5 years to post
new developments is an anti-Osborne strategy that only Elon could concoct and actually pull off

 

[Paul_SF]

 

[Artful Dodger]

I don't want to talk about Elon... The next earnings call should bring about a welcome reset in here, I expect a lot of new information. Including...

Well, haha, I think Elon has told us to expect him to provide this after the 10-K drops, rather than on the Earnings Call. So perhaps early February?

Cheers!

 

[MC3OZ]

Well, haha, I think Elon has told us to expect him to provide this after the 10-K drops, rather than on the Earnings Call. So perhaps early February?

Cheers!

Good questions might prise a bit of info out slightly early..

 

[SunCatcher]

Weekend OT; just saw this and highly recommend it! This one will get a lot of eyeballs and good reviews. Ford F350 owner gets to drive it, and is greatly impressed. They tow an electric Brawley while it's in regen, and report that it doesn't feel like they're towing anything!

The Cybertruck is gonna go wild in this world of ours! TSLA to the moon in 2024!

 

[Artful Dodger]

Good questions might prise a bit of info out slightly early..

I think the chances for getting good questions on the earnings call are low. Certainly not from analysts, who will only repeat question on guidance for auto volume, while completely ignoring TE growth and the uncertainies inherent in the 'S' curve for Auto. Say will ask 'wen Roadster?'...

Did you consider that the very reason Elon will do a Tesla plans session after the 10-K comes out is because they've learned to NOT expect good questions?

Elon is going to layout the Tesla growth roadmap for the next 5 years. You lucky folks have already seen it, upthread. It's not that hard to guess, but folks love to 2nd-guess themselves. Those will be the folks on the sidelines with their hands in their (empty) pockets in 5 years time when TSLA surpasses AAPL and Saudi Aramco Mkt Cap, combined.

#predict

 

[JustSaying]

There is still a lot of work to be done. Amazing, how much misinformation is still out there.

Looks like he rented a standard range... Thats not an EV model vs a LR most people would rent/own to drive on a recurring 800-mile trip. Anyone have the numbers how a M3LR might fare on this trip?
(They ran the hell out of this spot.)

 

[dhanson865]

None of the above:
Tesla issues 2.5M, and then hits it.
How about putting some water in that glass there...

How about

Tesla issues 2.4M guidance, and reiterates the 50% average over a number of years, suggesting 2024 will be a 'less' year but they expect 'more' years the next couple after, then hits 2.48M pretty much on pace beating the most recent prior guidance.

or

Tesla issues 2.4M guidance, and reiterates the 50% average over a number of years, suggesting 2024 will be a 'less' year but they expect 'more' years the next couple after, then hits 2.45M close to on pace beating the most recent prior guidance.

 

[Surfer of Life]

I love winning over truckers, but then they went to the dunes but didn’t drive up any dunes.

 

[MartinAustin]

I love winning over truckers, but then they went to the dunes but didn’t drive up any dunes.

Yeah we're still in the stage where wealthy Cybertruck early owners are lending their vehicles to youtubers who are desperate to get views. Once they get their own Cybertrucks we will see a great deal more risk-taking and Cyberstunts.

(Cyberstunts... did I coin a new term? While I am here... I think "sqwheel" is way better than "squircle")

 

[Max Plaid]

The fact that Elon can so abruptly slash Twitter staff by 80% while maintaining or improving the service shows how competent he is. It's mind-boggling to think about, especially at Elon's age. To know which staff are necessary and motivated vs bitter and corrosive is amazing (alien-level decision making). I'd like to think this was because Elon was lucky, but it seems Elon often gets "lucky" with high risk ventures.

How many people can singlehandedly do something like that with an established business without dire consequences (or at least taking the service down for a couple weeks)? I'd like to know what drugs Elon's on.

Elon didn't decide who to and who not to fire, he had a small group of trusted employees - one of them family member - to vet everyone, I don't remember the exact details, but it's all in Isaacson

But indeed credit to him that he clearly perceived the bloat and acted so fast

 

[hobbes]

Does anyone know what to make of the "mod approved" badge of this post? Does it mean anything? Anyway, someone claiming to be a Tesla employee saying US Highland coming Sunday!

https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/comments/191bn3c

 

[Causalien]

Great clip. I had similar thoughts when Elon started slashing Twitter employees and some average software developer friends of mine were so convinced that Twitter will fail because of it. Because of their experience as mediocre devs in mediocre companies led by mediocre people for mediocre results. Its baffling how oblivious some people are.

Talk is cheap

I've personally experienced this phenomena several times in life.

My reaction to something that is suspisciously too good or something I cannot wrap my mind around is to ask more questions and do my research.

But it seems that ppl nowadays prefers to shout "nooo" and deny its existence. So they can't comprehend the way elites do things cause it's too good to be true... according to their standard. "Everyone must be as incompetent as me." kind of thinking vs "there's something to learn"

 

[Artful Dodger]

No way [Lithium refinery at Corpus Christi - ed.] production begins 1H. Maybe production start 4Q.

Here's what we know about the Corpus Christi plant as of Nov 3, 2023:

Tesla Lithium Extraction Facility Opening Mid-2024 in Texas | eepower.com

"Tesla's lithium refinery plant on the Texas Gulf Coast is ahead of schedule and should begin production by mid-2024.​

​

"Initially, construction was to be completed by the end of 2024, and lithium production would begin in 2025. The timeline has moved up, however, with plant commissioning expected in early 2024 and lithium ready to be shipped in the second half of 2024."​

So I'd call that Summer 2024 (perhaps Q3). But so long as the Corpus Christi Lithium Refinery is operational before 4680 Cell Lines 5-thru-8 are ready at Austin, the Gantt chart out works fine.

It's nice to see progress in Texas, but what's going on with the 4680 cell line expansion in Nevada? Or the semi factory expansion in Nevada? A whole lot of nothing there. Likewise giga Mexico?

All other 4680 cell projects will follow the production line validation from the 1st project at Giga Texas. There's no point in gathering production experience if you can't apply it to new production lines, and it's wasteful and inefficient to retrofit a brand-new line. Same reason Model 3 doesn't use gigacastings yet.

 

[CaliBear1]

Your post triggered a random thought. We've heard of sheep-herders but never sheep-dispersers. Which would take more effort, herding a flock of sheep to move as one unit or to disperse them such that each one stands / travels on its own?

Well, the latter are getting sheared...or slaughtered.

 

[willow_hiller]

Does anyone know what to make of the "mod approved" badge of this post? Does it mean anything?

It means that they've shown some sort of proof to the mods. Either proof that they're an employee, or proof of the news. The idea is that they cannot publicly prove it because that would reveal their identity.

Still possible for the mods to have been fooled, though.

 

[Puma2020]

Anyone have the numbers how a M3LR might fare on this trip?

As I have now completed my 2nd coast-to-coast trip in my 2020 MYLR, anyone stating you can't EASILY do it, is spouting FUD.
NH->TX->Vancouver BC->NH, then later NH->BC->TX->NH Roughly 10,000 miles in an EV on each trip.
Also hit 17 National Parks along the way (bring my total up to 44 of 63), and completing geocaching in all 50 states (and now 7 provinces),
Extremely easy, just plug the day's destination into the navigation system and go. Almost zero range issues.
For full disclosure, I did stay at RV parks (slept in the back and got a full recharge (85%)) which made this much easier. There were a couple of spots where the RV park/recharge made the difference. Specifically, Glacier NP in Montana (after traveling via MN, SK and AB, Canada) and Zion->Bryce->Glen Canyon dam. Both spots are getting new SCs in the near future to solve those range issues.
I also used FSD Beta in both countries and it made the trip very pleasurable, most of the time, while occasionally giving me something to discuss with the car about its tendencies.
BTW, I recommend visiting BC in August/September and then visiting TX in October, and NOT TX in the summer and then BC.

 

[jerry33]

As I have now completed my 2nd coast-to-coast trip in my 2020 MYLR, anyone stating you can't EASILY do it, is spouting FUD.
NH->TX->Vancouver BC->NH, then later NH->BC->TX->NH Roughly 10,000 miles in an EV on each trip.
Also hit 17 National Parks along the way (bring my total up to 44 of 63), and completing geocaching in all 50 states (and now 7 provinces),
Extremely easy, just plug the day's destination into the navigation system and go. Almost zero range issues.
For full disclosure, I did stay at RV parks (slept in the back and got a full recharge (85%)) which made this much easier. There were a couple of spots where the RV park/recharge made the difference. Specifically, Glacier NP in Montana (after traveling via MN, SK and AB, Canada) and Zion->Bryce->Glen Canyon dam. Both spots are getting new SCs in the near future to solve those range issues.
I also used FSD Beta in both countries and it made the trip very pleasurable, most of the time, while occasionally giving me something to discuss with the car about its tendencies.
BTW, I recommend visiting BC in August/September and then visiting TX in October, and NOT TX in the summer and then BC.

Correct. We drove from DFW to Seattle in 2015, and it wasn't particularly hard (there was one home charge on the trip, the rest were all Superchargers or overnight destination chargers). This trip would be quicker today because there are Superchargers in a more direct route. Today road trips are just point the car to the next Supercharger and go. Even in the Supercharger Desert it's that way unless you have bad luck and the grid power is out in a Supercharger area (has happened to me three times since 2020).

 

[Unpilot]

As I have now completed my 2nd coast-to-coast trip in my 2020 MYLR, anyone stating you can't EASILY do it, is spouting FUD.
NH->TX->Vancouver BC->NH, then later NH->BC->TX->NH Roughly 10,000 miles in an EV on each trip.
Also hit 17 National Parks along the way (bring my total up to 44 of 63), and completing geocaching in all 50 states (and now 7 provinces),
Extremely easy, just plug the day's destination into the navigation system and go. Almost zero range issues.
For full disclosure, I did stay at RV parks (slept in the back and got a full recharge (85%)) which made this much easier. There were a couple of spots where the RV park/recharge made the difference. Specifically, Glacier NP in Montana (after traveling via MN, SK and AB, Canada) and Zion->Bryce->Glen Canyon dam. Both spots are getting new SCs in the near future to solve those range issues.
I also used FSD Beta in both countries and it made the trip very pleasurable, most of the time, while occasionally giving me something to discuss with the car about its tendencies.
BTW, I recommend visiting BC in August/September and then visiting TX in October, and NOT TX in the summer and then BC.

Correct. We drove from DFW to Seattle in 2015, and it wasn't particularly hard (there was one home charge on the trip, the rest were all Superchargers or overnight destination chargers). This trip would be quicker today because there are Superchargers in a more direct route. Today road trips are just point the car to the next Supercharger and go. Even in the Supercharger Desert it's that way unless you have bad luck and the grid power is out in a Supercharger area (has happened to me three times since 2020).

Ahh...but you guys are actually driving and enjoying the trip....not fueling a FUD agenda.

Big difference.