Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[wipster]

• Does Costco have an important mission?
• Do employees at Costco do interesting and challenging work?
• Are smart hardworking people attracted to working at Costco?
• Does CostCo have a flat organisation structure?
• Is company equity part of the salary package at Costco?

Costco might be able to tick some of these boxes, but in some areas Tesla has a natural edge that is hard to replicate.

Hard working intelligent people rarely need a union, because usually the company knows how valuable they are, and retention is a priority.

I have no doubt some people will attempt to infiltrate Tesla with the intention to unionize. That will be for political, ideological, and self-interest reasons, nothing to do with how Tesla staff are treated.

This a risk recruitment and HR need to consider.

Optimus doing low-skill repetitive and boring work should mean all Tesla employees are eventually doing well paid interesting work and raising the bar on the qualifications and skills needed to join Tesla will help screen out future union infiltrators.

We are also at the stage where factory line employees from other car companies don't necessarily have any vital skills that Tesla needs to acquire. Higher skilled workers from existing car companies should have similar motivations to existing employees.

Not to belabor this subject, but the individual Costco stores must have differences in management and working conditions. I have several friends and acquaintances that either work at our local Costco or are retired from there and every one of them has told me how good it is to work there. Great management, excellent wages, and a good environment in which to make a decent living. I suspect the stores that unionized weren't getting the same treatment and they felt the union could do better for them. Time will tell...

p.s., in retrospect I wish I wouldn't have sold my Costco shares a few years back! The SP has gone up ~700% since I sold. Oh well, hindsight is more accurate than foresight most times.

HODL!

 

[cab]

Um, at 5:11 in this Gigatexas Video, Jeff shows a transporter heading to Fremont...could it be???

 

[Musskiah]

Jan 19 Quad Witching expiry now at 2,883,581 options contracts. There is massive money at stake. Jan 19 Max Pain now at $210 and dropping; expect the SP to stay well below the 200 day MA. Jan 26 Max Pain is $240, so a swift recovery back above the 200 day MA around the earnings call is probable.

TA: On the daily, weekly, and monthly timeframes the 200, 50, and 100 DMA are incredibly tight within about 10% of eachother. This type of correlation across all time-frames is extremely unusual for TSLA. This puts the mean implied volatility under 0.5 for all timeframes (10,20,30,60,90,120,150D). The last time we saw this was Oct 2021, and prior to that Oct 2019. Both preceeded massive runs. Jus' sayin'...

 

[CorneliusXX]

You can always try unionizing.

I strike in sympathy with @mongo. No more work until mods agree to use smaller words.

 

[Mengy]

Um, at 5:11 in this Gigatexas Video, Jeff shows a transporter heading to Fremont...could it be???
View attachment 1008071
View attachment 1008072

Now THAT is very interesting!

 

[Artful Dodger]

I did some length estimates of the "undercover" car vs the Model Y BiW based on recent drone videos (h/t @gabeincal).

As we see in the composite image below, the "undercover" car spotted by drone this week is estimated to be approx. 14% longer than a Model Y:

View attachment 629977

Note: Accuracy of lengths estimated to be within +/-1%, or 50mm.

Specs:

• Model Y length is 4,750 mm
• current Model S is 4,970 mm
• Model S is 220mm (14% longer) than the Model Y.

Inference:

• Analysis of drone images shows "Undercover" car is ~15% longer than Model Y
• This is a good match for the length of the Model S (within accuracy of est'd)
• The "Undercover" car is NOT a Model Y, and may be the new Model S

Cheers!

Continuing the theme of the "Undercover Car" first seen at Fremont 6 months before the Model S Plaid was released, Austin Drone pilot Jeff Roberts captured these 2 still images of what looks like two alpha builds (or possibly BIWs) of the Model 2 / compact car:

Model 2 Alphas headed to Fremont 2024-01-11 | Jeff Roberts - Austin, TX (Youtube time index 5:10)​

These look like small CUVs. We do expect Model 2 to be around the size of a RAV4:

And here's a detail shot of the rear pallet (anybody wanna do the length estimation?)

People, that's a $14B car sitting right there on a wooden pallet. This is amazing, what a great day!

"Yup, the growth story is dead, nothing to see, move along..." /s

Cheers to the Longs!

 

[Musskiah]

Um, at 5:11 in this Gigatexas Video, Jeff shows a transporter heading to Fremont...could it be???
View attachment 1008071
View attachment 1008072

The windshield definitely ends right over the front tire; this is not a 3 or a Y for certain. The front slope of the windshield is more curved than a Y and the zenith is much higher than a 3. The shape of it looks more X-like to me. The way the roofline ends right in the back is not reminiscent of any model. I don't see the S in this at all.

 

[2daMoon]

They're so cute when they are babies.

 

[cab]

Um, at 5:11 in this Gigatexas Video, Jeff shows a transporter heading to Fremont...could it be???
View attachment 1008071
View attachment 1008072

Looks similar to...

 

[evermore]

Looks like the frame of a Y with no body panels.

 

[Stretch2727]

The windshield definitely ends right over the front tire; this is not a 3 or a Y for certain. The front slope of the windshield is more curved than a Y and the zenith is much higher than a 3. The shape of it looks more X-like to me. The way the roofline ends right in the back is not reminiscent of any model. I don't see the S in this at all.

Looks like they taped some boxes or fill to the front and rear to throw people off.

If this is really something new I can't believe they would not hire an enclosed trailer to ship it.

 

[Musskiah]

Yeah, could be a Y without body panels. If this is IT, strange they didn't do more to conceal it. Looks like a more bubbly, taller version than the early prototype in the book. Now I am confused .

 

[MC3OZ]

Yeah, could be a Y without body panels. If this is IT, strange they didn't do more to conceal it. Looks like a more bubbly, taller version than the early prototype in the book. Now I am confused .

The wheels on the truck in the foreground look bigger. this suggests that these vehicles are shorter than Model Ys and perhaps around the same height...

As for why these vehicles were not shipped in a covered trailer, perhaps that happened earlier. They might have gambled that a drone pilot might not capture a shot, or they don't really care.

Still I agree that we don't completely know that this is the new model, there could be other explanations.

I suspect Elon's talk after the 10-K is filed will include new products.. I'll speculate that this may include, new Performance Model 3, the Robotaxi, and a new Tesla energy product.. I don't know what that Tesla energy product will be,,, my impression for investor day was 2 new Tesla energy products are coming, so far we have only had an upgraded Powerwall.

 

[Mengy]

Looks similar to...
View attachment 1008093

Wow, it really does have the same lines!

Of course these two mystery covered objects could be mockups just like the one next to Franz in that old pic. These might not even resemble the actual "Model 2" at all, for all we know, which is really nothing at this point.

Still, exciting to speculate!

 

[GOVA]

^ the distance from the rear wheel well to the end is less than anything else Tesla. Very similar to the mockup with Franz. Also, those are the best wooden pallets I've ever seen. Quality.

 

[gillfoto]

Um, at 5:11 in this Gigatexas Video, Jeff shows a transporter heading to Fremont...could it be???
View attachment 1008071
View attachment 1008072

Juniper? - no it's too small; it's the Dio Tesla

 

[Zaddy Daddy]

This thread is jumping the shark again. That body is obviously a Model Y. Same overall size as the Model Y, just has plastic stretched out over the front making it seem like a different front shape.

 

[Mengy]

Juniper?

Nope. "Juniper" is just a refresh of the MY, which should be very similar to the Highland refresh of the M3. Think a new front bumper shroud, some interior changes, vented seats, upgraded suspension, but the overall body lines should be the same as the current MY.

The two cars under those tarps have very different body lines from the MY. These are something else...

Looks like the frame of a Y with no body panels.

Huh, yeah it might be a MY with the front end and tailgate removed...

 

[FreqFlyer]

Continuing the theme of the "Undercover Car" first seen at Fremont 6 months before the Model S Plaid was released, Austin Drone pilot Jeff Roberts captured these 2 still images of what looks like two alpha builds (or possibly BIWs) of the Model 2 / compact car:

Model 2 Alphas headed to Fremont 2024-01-11 | Jeff Roberts - Austin, TX (Youtube time index 5:10)​

These look like small CUVs. We do expect Model 2 to be around the size of a RAV4:

View attachment 1008076

And here's a detail shot of the rear pallet (anybody wanna do the length estimation?)

View attachment 1008077

People, that's a $14B car sitting right there on a wooden pallet. This is amazing, what a great day!

"Yup, the growth story is dead, nothing to see, move along..." /s

Cheers to the Longs!

I know perspective is throwing everything off because its closer to the camera, with that stated it looks the same to be the same size of MY. Could it be these are Juniper chassis?

We should be seeing prototypes of the $25K car, but I bet most of the work is being done in China where they do not have a problem keeping projects secret.

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1745611929521967147

https://twitter.com/x/status/1745610793989571033