Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[juanmedina]

No, Tesla hasn't lost the IRA incentive for the Model 3, it's just rolled into the montly lease cost now (90% of buyers lease their cars). Farzad explains that Model 3 Std Rge now starts from $339/mth while a Model Y starts at $399 (even those the sticker price is lower for cash buyers, the lease has the IRA rolled into the price).

BREAKING: NEW Tesla Available for US Market | Farzad (2024-01-10)

Unless Tesla changes the possibility of buying back the car after the lease over not many are going to go for it. I posted about leasing in the Model 3 Facebook group; you should read their comments.

 

[Snerruc]

Gamestop's market cap and daily volume was many orders of magnitude less than TSLA's current market cap and daily volume.

Thus, in order to do to TSLA what the redditors did to Gamestop, we would need many orders of magnitude more (equivalent capital of) reddits.

Well, I believe we have substantially more resources than the Reditors did.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Is this something cyclist do?

Yeah, why do you think there are no TV cameras in the 'Feeding' sections?

Meanwhile, T.E.'s take on moving GEN3 initial production from Monterrey to Ausin as a 'delay'. It's exactly the opposite, Elon said as much, and its a way to fast-track the GEN3 program. The home of Tesla Engineering is now in Austin, and it's simply easier for the engineering team (remember, design and production engineering is integrated. Thus, more productive, faster.

And this 'economist' calls us 'fanboys' as if playground insults change facts. The only thing he's economical with is facts: He likes consume a TSLAQ-approved diet to, wot, look smart? Contrarian? Agrarian? Vegetarian? The mind doth wobble... P

 

[Artful Dodger]

P.S.A / Reminder: NASDAQ Market will be closed for trading on Mon, Jan 15, 2024 for the MLK holiday.

NASDAQ Trading Hours & Market Holidays [2024]

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Dear MM,

You won this week...shut the markets down already!

 

[SmokyPeat]

Your 90% number is completely off. It's 25% nationally and potentially less for Tesla due to the no buyout.

The M3 does not have IRA incentive for purchases due to the battery.

Farzad is one of the most unreliable when it comes to Tesla. He was SURE the CT would launch with over 600 miles of EPA range.

The Performance M3 still gets the $7500 incentive.

 

[Artful Dodger]

The Performance M3 still gets the $7500 incentive.

There may be some inventory still available, but the M3P is not currently in production. If you want a Model 3 and the IRA benefit, you have to lease it (90% of buyers finance anyway, so why not lease?)

 

[Buckminster]

 

[15Peter20]

Could we do something like the Rediters did with GameStop ? I might even be will to do options for the first time in my life if we could hurt these guys.

Aren't options the exact problem?

 

[Knightshade]

(90% of buyers finance anyway, so why not lease?)

I see you corrected your earlier mistaken leasing % stat without owning up to the error

That said- why not lease? Because unlike nearly every other car company Tesla gives you no option to actually own the car that way is why not.

Again in Q4 -98 percent- of Model 3/Y buyers did not lease. Even though the $7500 was available that way too.

People like owning their Tesla.

 

[juanmedina]

There may be some inventory still available, but the M3P is not currently in production. If you want a Model 3 and the IRA benefit, you have to lease it (90% of buyers finance anyway, so why not lease?)

"Lease" has a bad connotation. Tesla needs to allow the buy of the car ASAP and stop dreaming about the robot taxi stuff. It is an easy fix that might keep Tesla from having to lower prices.

 

[growler23]

Shaka, when the walls fell:

Tesla Economist on X: "Who knows, maybe this is Elon's intention, to keep everything quiet, so that only the fanboys who can HODL through the darkest periods of $TSLA get to benefit. Reward the true believers. And their faith will pay off." Twitter • 5 hours ago​

https://twitter.com/x/status/1745606483092627638

(gave this a "funny" reaction for the subtle ST:TNG reference, not the somewhat cultish but possibly accurate quote)

 

[keydiver]

I think it asks you if you'll want to apply for it on the order or financing page and then asks if you want to use it on the incentives page.
View attachment 1008291

Does this work on inventory cars also? I have a friend that has been watching inventory LR Model Y for several weeks, but doesn't want to have to finance the extra $7500. (He gets a lousy 8.5% finance charge because he has Canadian citizenship and it has been hard for him to build a credit history.) I've tried to step through the process on my app, but I'm afraid to go too far for fear of buying another Model Y.

 

[mongo]

Does this work on inventory cars also? I have a friend that has been watching inventory LR Model Y for several weeks, but doesn't want to have to finance the extra $7500. (He gets a lousy 8.5% finance charge because he has Canadian citizenship and it has been hard for him to build a credit history.) I've tried to step through the process on my app, but I'm afraid to go too far for fear of buying another Model Y.

It should, but it all takes place in the app after ordering.

Yes, I paid the $250 when I placed the order. I also did a cash purchase and am contemplating doing a trade-in. Once you place the order, you will be directed to the Tesla app where you will have a series of tasks to complete: providing registration details, submitting your trade-in for a quote, transferring the tax credit, uploading your insurance info, and making final payment. It is, IMHO, a much easier way to purchase a new car compared to how we used to do it with legacy car dealers.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Dear MM,

You won this week...shut the markets down already!

Let's be clear, this is mainly the work of Hedge Funds (many of whom also hold Options Market Maker status since that let's them cheat by naked short selling via the Madoff loophole).

The most blatent current example is Toni Scaramouche | Bernstein who went on CNBC TV in November to announce his 'best idea' for 2024 was to short TSLA. What a putz! This 'analyst' is a wholly-pwned property of the hedge funds who run him. I wonder if it hurts having the puppeteer's hand so far up his wazzuul.

Pink bunny Craig Irwin | Roth Capital Partners is another front-man for the mob, frequently appearing on Financial Media to squeal "egregious", look directly into the camera and say his PT is $85 (same as the day the 5:1 split was announced on Aug 13, 2020). Irwin's other trademarked schtick is 'Tesla doesn't have anything that Toyota doesn't have', while maintaining a straight face. Like, oh, when Toyota called the Model Y a work of Art?

Elon was right back on the Q1 2018 call: "Boring, boneheaded questions are not cool". So, while we say 'MMs' what we really mean is 'Hedgies'. I hope Elon can shift some of his attention away from the day-to-day engineering now that his team is stepping up, and refocus on scraping these barnacles... publically.

Cheers to the longs!

#knowyourenemy #knowyourself

 

[Artful Dodger]

Tesla needs to allow the buy of the car ASAP and stop dreaming about the robot taxi stuff. It is an easy fix that might keep Tesla from having to lower prices.

That's not true. Resale of lease-return cars has become a handsomely profitable business line for Tesla, and is over half the income in the Services & Other line item now. People love to buy a previously owned Tesla, from Tesla. Especially with the extended warrantee...

 

[Artful Dodger]

(gave this a "funny" reaction for the subtle ST:TNG reference, not the somewhat cultish but possibly accurate quote)

Sokath! His eyes OPEN!

 

[Zaddy Daddy]

Hi bro, I'll preface with this: this is not an attack on you but I think you ought to understand the following...

The blatant and egrigious obvious manipulation of TSLA that occurs through short selling is not a "conspiracy," it is simply a fact. Tesla has been the most shorted stock on the market for about a decade now. Between 2015 and summer of 2019 it was appaling. These recent price movements are absolutely a result of naked shorting. Why? Because Tesla is the biggest casino on Wall Street? Why? Because it realizes more options activity than literally any stock in the history of the stock market. Market makers use short selling to artificially depress the stock price to bring it as close to Max Pain as possible week after week. This week was absolutely the result of a massive short attack. This Tuesday and Thursday it is confirmed that 66% of selling was tagged to short selling. Next Friday a boatload of money is on the line during Quad Witching, and you bet they will bring it within cents of Max Pain. If you don't follow Papafox, I suggest you begin. He has been painstaking for years in bringing these details to light.

If you think I am full of it: I initially began my Tesla investment in 2012. I have paid close attention to TSLA options and short sales both on my own and on this forum since 2018 (you cannot tell because I just lurked until this year). I have successfully traded options since 2019. Artful Dodger is 100% on point when it comes to understanding shorts sales and the workings of the market. Though he may not always be right (no one is perfect), in this case he absolutely knows what he is talking about.

One love. Again, this is not a personal attack.

Short interest as a % of float in TSLA is way down from 5 years ago. Days to cover is very low. TSLA is not a heavily shorted stock in the relative sense. Yes like Apple there is a lot of shorting because the market cap is so large.

And there certainly is shorting. Shorting by itself is not illegal and isn't necessarily manipulation. The stock being down 4% after there are price cuts in China is not the time to proclaim "manipulation!" where there is a very legitimate reason why some investors might short a stock with a high forward PE and declining margins. Or simply sell their shares.

So no, ignoring bad news to make a story that fits your narrative is not okay.

Misleading video titles to make it seem like creator is saying he's seen Model 2's is not okay.

Making up information that 90% of people lease Model 3's is not okay.

Saying the Model 3 hasn't lost the EV rebate is not okay. It's insanity!

Likewise, just because Tesla cuts prices doesn't mean they aren't making good profit margins. Looking back, they seem to routinely cut prices when they have made COGS improvements on their lines. They have also routinely manipulated prices to keep balance between production and demand.

There is some level of consistency in your "I'm not a bear" method of analysis that routinely ignores known factors and discounts them as if they are meaningless.

They've cut prices over the course of the last year without proportional declines in COGs. Therefore lower margins were reported. Everyone was theorizing that this wouldn't happen, and yet it did. You are simply wrong. Is this bizzarro world? And you are trying to criticize me for being right? LOL

Bear? Right now I'm heavily into LEAP calls on this week's dip. About half of my accounts at 2x leverage, so essentially equivalent as "all in" with shares.

It shouldn't blow people's minds that someone can critique a company and stay rational about all the pieces of news coming in, while be bullish in the long term.

 

[MountainRatMat]

There may be some inventory still available, but the M3P is not currently in production. If you want a Model 3 and the IRA benefit, you have to lease it (90% of buyers finance anyway, so why not lease?)

The IRA benefit on the lease is definitely a compelling reason to lease and not buy....

....but, generally, leasing is not a financially sound decision. If you like throwing away money then go ahead and lease.

 

[Musskiah]

Aren't options the exact problem?

Sorta. It's actually naked shorting which is the problem. Without naked shorting, options would be more of a fair game. With illlegal naked shorting, options are the most rigged casino on Earth today.