Thomas Edison
Active Member
Just out of curiosity, does anybody know the total lifetime regulatory credits Tesla has reported?
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
We also had to shuffle some snow yesterday…
Was on trip last weekend, 3-4 hours away, -22-27 Celsius, 2 nights, no overnight charging, running lot of errands there.
I honestly could not tell any difference in supercharging from «normal» trips. As always navigating ~15km or more to the supercharger (getting a minimum of pre-heating).
Maybe it did take 5 or 10 minutes more than normal, I don’t know. But it is, afterall, winter…
As with EV prognostication, Starlink guesses tend to miss the point. Depending on whose estimate one values there are ~1.5 billion vehicles worldwide. Viewing static infrastructure and market share of EV’s only it is trivially easy to underestimate the pace of change.
Starlink is already proving new markets for constant access. Deere just begins using Starlink to guide agricultural equipment. Last week I was in a Tanzania lodge in the Serengeti nine hours from the nearest city, with fast, reliable Starlink. Then there is shipping:
Overseas Shipholding equips its entire fleet with Starlink internet
Provider of energy transportation services Overseas Shipholding Group (OSG) has decided to equip its vessel fleet with Space X’s Starlink satellite internet service.
www.offshore-energy.biz
These are just the tip of the iceberg. Most of the world has poor or non-existent electric infrastructure and poor communications. Now, as electrical power becomes more accessible thanks to cheap solar panels, wind capture and cheaper storage, places that have fossil fuel shipped in from far away can adopt state-of-the-art technologies, facilitated by those Starlink, and other, satélite communications abilities.
The short term for Tesla is always speculative because so many variables can cause positive or negative share and earnings movements. Looking forward, however, we can easily see that mass adoption of EV, internet and renewables will transform human energy usage. More severe climate change impact will accelerate these changes. Simultaneously there are nascent efforts to restore the ancient processes that yielded comfortable living space in inhospitable environments.
That last paragraph is meant to illustrate how massive changes will be during the next decade. Bluntly, there really is not much choice.
The pace of change is accelerating because, for the first time, the best solutions are now cheaper than the bad ones.
Obviously the established fossil fuel industry will trend towards the same end as did horses and other animals as power sources.
We are now in the midst of massive market manipulation for TSLA. Retail traders cannot long succeed in gaming this system precisely because retail traders cannot possess critical data quickly enough to profit consistently. Many of us, maybe most, look at a horizons of one year or less. In this global situation I think the minimum planning horizon is five years or more.
Based on what we know today it is safe to assume, in my opinion, that the major sources of TSLA revenues and profits in 2030 will be things we cannot realistically assess today. For realistic comparable situations just look at General Electric in 1919 or AT&T in the 1890’s. The basic analytical problem we are having today is that we are in the miidst of technological revolution but mostly perceiving a continuum.
This perspective really hit me most strongly last week as I browsed the internet in the Serengeti in my comfortable room while thinking of my first trip there 50 years ago. I conclude that one of very few people who grasp the consequences may well be Elon Musk. Flaws he has in abundance, perhaps because he has an acute awareness of the future and rather less of the present.
Science Fiction written by actual scientists, such as Isaac Asimov, probably helps to put change into perspective, even if Psycohistory never comes to fruitition.
Last edited:
Good job, Dodger! ようしらべがとどいた! I was trolling for @hiroshiy et al.
OT OT OTObasuteoptimus
@AudubonB
on a related note, I had a very elderly, ill, great great great uncle in Sweden (not the Orient) (mid 1800's) with bleeding gums & such who "went for a walk by a fjord" unassisted by any robot or relative
Moderator:
Modmode ON: Interesting, but let’s not walk down this path. Post deleted, then undeleted, because of a sudden, I cannot create PMs. Not even to myself……
Last edited by a moderator:
Stretch2727
Engineer and Car Nut
Thailand predicted to hit 20% EV sales this year. A fast uptake in a developing country. I was there in early 2022 and there were almost no EV's, there again in Oct 2023, BYD and other Chinese brands everywhere. EV's were 12% of the market in 2023. 12% is higher than the US! Tesla is 4th in this market. Thailand cut import taxes on some makes as long as they committed to local production in the near term future. BYD and Great wall are building plants and will likely export from Thailand.
www.bloomberg.com
Personally think Thailand is a great place for Tesla to build out capacity as an alternative to China. Strong automotive supply chain and lot's of local automotive manufacturing knowhow.
Thailand’s EV Sales Seen Doubling as First Homegrown Models Hit Market
Thailand’s electric vehicle sales may double this year as Chinese manufacturers prepare to roll out their first locally manufactured models and about $2.4 billion in government incentives boosts consumer demand.
www.bloomberg.com
Personally think Thailand is a great place for Tesla to build out capacity as an alternative to China. Strong automotive supply chain and lot's of local automotive manufacturing knowhow.
The Accountant
Active Member
Your full post was excellent, as usual, and I'd like to add to the paragraph above.
Looking at the projected market growth in energy storage,
by 2030, Tesla will be seen as an ENERGY company that dabbles in AUTOS
by 2035, Tesla will be seen as an AI/ROBOTICS company that dabbles in ENERGY and AUTOS
by 2040, Tesla will be seen as a [USE YOUR IMAGINATION] company that dabbles in AI/ROBOTICS, ENERGY and AUTOS
BY 2045 . . . . so on and so on.
note: I believe this chart is a bit stale (circa 2020) but it's still directionally correct imo.
Before I shuffle off, I hope to see it as a multiplanetary company considering dabbling in becoming a extragalactic one
The Accountant
Active Member
I compute $8.5B.
Now imagine telling folks they could invest in a fast growing, sector-dominant, company, whose competitors pay them money to put themselves out of business...
Who wouldn't want a slice of that?
(before trading hours...)
Hmmm, our household has had a couple of turbo intercooled vehicles, including a VW TDI. We've had winters with temps colder than that. Never had the insides of an intercooler clog up due to ice. Nor have I heard of that with many folks I know who also have intercooled engines...
Now, glow plug and fuel-gelling issues, yes. Diesels also like good cranking speed to generate that compression heat, and the cold effects on batteries compounds the aforementioned issues. Have you checked those?
Are you suggesting headquarters on Terminus or elsewhere?
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Then I should PROBABLY have my head examined?!Your hope lasts longer than your reading retention. In fairness to you, this was like so 10 days ago...
Elon Will Give a Tesla Talk After the 10K, Probably First Week of February
Setting the date and sending out flyers to the usual band of idiots in MSM would perhaps negate some risk to any sort of margin or eps issues with some suspense/fun. Curbing selling sounds like a good plan to me judging by the nearly 100% drop rate after good news
Or maybe the talk is a nothing burger and was spun up because of Elon catching flac for SEAMING inattentive in Tesla. I remember a few quarters ago someone asked a question basically saying “what are you doing with your time?” and his response was basically “I could not think of a single thing that I could do to that would make the company any faster or better that I’m not already doing.” That’s always a good feeling, hopefully that’s still the case.
Either way I hope for some details on ER and mb some exciting announcements from Tesla @ the talk.
I’m hoping for a great report. $200 stock price is way too close for my comfort. Have big plans for May of this year, my fingers & toes are all crossed. Was glad to see ihor @ S3 report that Tsla is no longer the most shorted stock.
Good luck all.
Everyone who dismisses middle and upper middle income countries as prospects generally ignore the daily realities many such countries are having right now. As fact today, countries such as Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, many African countries, Brazil, Chile and more are having local production of solar panels, inverters, storage and automotive batteries/packs and much more. BYD right now produces batteries for busses, trucks, cars, residential and commercial storage, electric trains plus completely integrated off-grid solutions for commercial and residential use all in Brazil. GWM is building/has built production facilities in a number of countries. I did not even mention wind power.
What most westerners forget is that the Chinese investments, in particular are transforming grids while enabling all manner of electrification. Virtually nobody notices how they start, by installing fundamental infrastructure, Brazil is typical:
State Grid Brazil HoldingState Grid Brazil Holdinghttps://stategrid.com.br › ...
Among non-Chinese companies almost none are going towards infrastructure first. Almost none, because Tesla began Superchargers in concert with Model S, and today the combination of grid services, wholesale operation with house builders, VPP's and Superchargers (owned and sold) makes Tesla the only non-Chinese company that seriously pursues integrated solutions.
Tesla is limited by lack of engineers, and the need to satisfy largely uncooperative US regulators. One might argue with that conclusion...but not if looking carefully at what happens when national priorities are directed towards global electrification. The unique Tesla advantages remain in technological innovation, exemplified by manufacturing and distribution efficiency. Nobody matches Tesla on those two crucial elements.
At the other end of the galaxy.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
AnbaricBike
Member
Hard Start / No Start - Is your intercooler frozen? Check Here!
UPDATE 12/21/13 New TSB issued that includes all VWs with CBEA and CJAA engines (Audi A3 is unknown), including Beetle and Beetle Convertible. See attached PDF for complete TSB. Intercooler kit changeover valve revised from 0C to 10C. Current TSB in PDF format -VeeDubTDI...
forums.tdiclub.com
The very same thing happened to me 4 years ago, wouldn't even crank. Same car, same parking location similar temps. I was not apprised of this well known intercooler icing issue at the time. That time, I threw my midtronics pbt300 on the battery and it showed a full 600CA but I replaced the battery anyway and it sill wouldn't start. I eventually puzzled this out on my own and after a few days of warmer temps I jacked it up, pulled the skid plate, popped the lower charge pipe and got about half a liter of oily water dumped next to my head. Engine started right up after that. I ran a VW TDI specific repair shop in Austin for about 10 years (runonbeer.com) and my car is the only one I've ever seen do this. My buddy in Colorado ran a shop in Golden CO for about the same amount of time (dieselland.net, now defunct. He currently runs dieselgeek.com) and he also is perplexed as to why I continue to have this problem as he's never seen it.
My guess is that it has something to do with whatever particular DPF/NOx/SOx cat Regen cycle it happens to be running leading up to the time I park it. Though I do monitor that closely with a PolarFIS and I know it was in Ff01 stage, which is "no Regen", it is close to needing to run one with !soot @ 22.2g and the Regen status counter @ 6.0 out of 7.0 (where it commences an active FF10 regen). I don't monitor, or have access to, LP EGR duty cycle afaik.
MartinAustin
Active Member
I'm so glad that, while the stock market is open, VW diesel owners can trade stories and advice if they don't want to trade TSLAHard Start / No Start - Is your intercooler frozen? Check Here!
UPDATE 12/21/13 New TSB issued that includes all VWs with CBEA and CJAA engines (Audi A3 is unknown), including Beetle and Beetle Convertible. See attached PDF for complete TSB. Intercooler kit changeover valve revised from 0C to 10C. Current TSB in PDF format -VeeDubTDI...
The very same thing happened to me 4 years ago, wouldn't even crank. Same car, same parking location similar temps. I was not apprised of this well known intercooler icing issue at the time. That time, I threw my midtronics pbt300 on the battery and it showed a full 600CA but I replaced the battery anyway and it sill wouldn't start. I eventually puzzled this out on my own and after a few days of warmer temps I jacked it up, pulled the skid plate, popped the lower charge pipe and got about half a liter of oily water dumped next to my head. Engine started right up after that. I ran a VW TDI specific repair shop in Austin for about 10 years (runonbeer.com) and my car is the only one I've ever seen do this. My buddy in Colorado ran a shop in Golden CO for about the same amount of time (dieselland.net, now defunct. He currently runs dieselgeek.com) and he also is perplexed as to why I continue to have this problem as he's never seen it.
My guess is that it has something to do with whatever particular DPF/NOx/SOx cat Regen cycle it happens to be running leading up to the time I park it. Though I do monitor that closely with a PolarFIS and I know it was in Ff01 stage, which is "no Regen", it is close to needing to run one with !soot @ 22.2g and the Regen status counter @ 6.0 out of 7.0 (where it commences an active FF10 regen). I don't monitor, or have access to, LP EGR duty cycle afaik.
BMW looking to also deploy humanoid robots...
Similar threads
- Locked
- Locked
