Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
I learned why LLMs hallucinate (assuming I actually get it). I'm only posting this bc I had the same concerns for FSD. Plus, I was curious why/how LLMs made stuff up, especially when I saw it with my own eyes. I even shared some of that BS on this forum, lol it was so convincing too.

Since LLMs are told to pick ONLY the next word, sometimes they make a poor choice (conflicting info) and this sets up the problem. It is then forced, word by word, to select words that aren't so likely. It literally corners itself into a lie by using false information out there. No surprise - the data is literally the Internet and it's full of it.

With FSD, as long as the training data is clean, this should not happen. As much as some people want us to believe FSD goes rogue, there is no reason for it to hit that one tree if 99.999% of the users do not hit the tree. The "liars", in our little FSD world, do not have successful outcomes - they do not "get away with it" like on the internet. The tree hits back and it's obviously not useful for the training set.

Distant objects can look like a stop sign - if you can call that a hallucination, maybe. Like this Burger King sign. The vehicle response proceeded cautiously slowing to 24 mph, but then resumed once it got a little closer. It does not stop. Further, this same problem is now gone just up the street from me.

One could say FSD is getting "less iffy" over time. :cool:
Hallucinating would imply thinking the supermarket is on Mars, and driving to boca chica.
misinterpreting complex situations is a possibility, but with billions of training miles,
it should be rare.

Moreover, even if it hallucinates, it will err on the side of safety, as that is
the default choice.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: SOULPEDL
Price cuts are good for Tesla but bad for TSLA as it hurts earnings. I think a lot of investors are disappointed with this realization.
This may sound like perpetual motion, but as they make more vehicles, the cost drops (by volume + invention) while it saturates TAM in that price range.
Fortunately, Tesla saved costs further to again lower the prices, and allowing even higher volumes. Tesla dominates market share, only challenged by lower cost Chinese EVs and their next line to attack.

The alternative in this race is to slow growth as demand actually does dry up (at a fixed price point). This is what the others will soon experience, stay tuned. Instead, Tesla grows market share and yet STILL profits. It's the perfect ramp if you ask me.
 
With regard to Elon staying at Tesla or not: While watching the electrified podcast (thanks for some of you mentioning it as a replacement for Tesla Daily), I realized that the discussion about Elon´s new incentive package going on makes it more likely he will be staying for another 10 years or so (assuming he and the board agree on one, which I believe).

You know what makes me believe Elon is staying at Tesla? He's built the entirety of Musk Industries around Giga Texas: within 30 miles of Austin is the Boring Company, SpaceX/Starlink production facility, Neuralink, and what do you want to bet Elon sells the former Twitter HQ bldg in San Franciso and relocates to Austin?

He's already planted his flag in the ground, and ground zero is Giga Texas. Sure, he'll leave one day, kicking and screaming! :D

You know what else is unbelievable? How quickly retail forum members forget that today is Options Expiry day, which shortzes have worked towards steadily for 3 weeks. Talk about short-term memory issues... :p

Cheers to the Longs!
 
I think I know where a lot of Tesla shareholders are flocking to.

Screenshot_20240119-114528.png
 
Last edited:
To play devil's advocate:
- more price cuts
- margin decrease
- low/no guidance
- delay of compact car
- FSD continues to drag
- Elon sells
- Elon tweets
- Elon leaves Tesla
- Elon something something something

etc.

Add: 4680 failing to ramp up

All those fears may come true. Or not. The question is whether that matters in the long run.
My fear of the day is todays article in De Tijd: https://www.tijd.be/ondernemen/auto/ook-kleine-bedrijfswagens-elektrificeren-vanaf-dit-jaar
“ In de laatste zes maanden van vorig jaar onttroonde de volledig elektrische BMW iX1 de Model Y van Tesla als populairste bedrijfswagen bij de bestellingen, blijkt uit de studie van Arval, dat als een van de grootste leasemaatschappijen van het land meer dan 100.000 bedrijfswagens onder beheer heeft.”
The quote says that in the last 6 months the BMW iX1 won more company car orders than the Model Y according to one of the biggest lease companies. (Note: in Belgium, where BMW is market leader due its desirability in the company car market)
Is the iX1 really so much more desirable than the Model Y? It turns out that the cheapest iX1 is around 60K euro, almost 50% more expensive than the cheapest Model Y, and with far worse specs.
There are now so many Model Y’s on the road that the real life comparison is inevitable between colleagues. I can’t imagine that people will keep choosing worse and more expensive cars. Tesla’s price drops will make the choice easier.
 
Price cuts are good for Tesla but bad for TSLA as it hurts earnings.
Gross earnings are going up because: (Profit/vehicle) x (No. of Deliveries). It's just Tesla's outsized Capital Spend right now that masks their profitability. And there's no better allocator of Capital than Elon Musk. This is locking in future growth, and future profit. Unless you don't want to own a $10T company...

I think a lot of investors are disappointed with this realization.
A lot of investors think Jim Cramer is an Investment Advisor (rather than a carnival barker at a creeping circus).
 
Last edited:
Sortof an add-on to number (1):

When somebody asks about predicted Cybertruck production numbers, we'll be reminded that the ramp will be exponential, and exponentials are hard to predict in the early stages. Also, production will be limited by the least lucky of all the component/input parts that also need to ramp up production, both in-house and from the many suppliers.

*Edited to add: I have no problem with Elon repeating these things, since he's generally answering questions when he does. The issue/blame really falls more on the professional analysts asking questions, since they keep walking down the same path that leads to these same answers. Of course, if Elon points out that their questions are boring and/or boneheaded, then he'll get all the blame.

*Edited again to note that I looked up an article about that incident, to remind myself, and happened on this:
https://www.inc.com/geoffrey-james/elon-musk-was-right-questions-were-bonehead.html
and this:
https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo...p-with-the-boring-bonehead-questions-on-tesla
Both of which have some pretty good quotes, just skimming through.

From the first link, I found this quote from Elon, regarding the Model 3:
"Tesla has roughly half a million reservations, despite no advertising & no cars in showrooms [and] even after reaching 5k/week production, it would take 2 years just to satisfy existing demand even if new sales dropped to 0."

I'll award everybody here 1,000 imaginary bonus points if, in response to a question, Elon has to say something similar about the Cybertruck...obviously adjusted to note they have millions of Cybertruck reservations and a few trucks drawing lines of viewers in showrooms.
Exactly. The number of high quality questions asked of Elon through the decade I've been listening to interviews can be counted on the fingers of two hands.

All you have to do is to look at the highest voted Say questions for the upcoming conference call and realize they are going to be a disappointment. They never announce new products during these quarterly conference calls. It takes a lot of thought to craft a question that won't immediately be rejected.