Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[2daMoon]

Not a peep, folks.

Well, not "A" Peep

Here's a couple of 'em.

Spoiler: The reason for the pop...

I did my IRA to ROTH move and I think Murphy was trying to boost the dollar value over my IRS Standard Deduction.

 

[Usain]

Wonder what percentage you fine folks have your net worth tied up in TSLA?

Me I'm well over 90%.

About 5%. But it's the only individual stock I currently own.

And I expect it to be over 50% of my net worth in a few years as TSLA goes up and I continue to acquire more chairs.

 

[geometro]

Yes, you are. There is no chance of getting a resolution on his comp package as the court hasn't ruled on the shareholder suit from the prior one yet. (I don't expect them to say anything about the Chicago FUD either, it really isn't relevant to the call.)

Damn good point.
Damn; good point.
Damn.... good point.

 

[geometro]

It depends on which Elon we get.

I want the one that's going to show he's focused on leading a team to deliver FSD, Optimus, TSLA > (Aramco+Apple)
(not necessarily in that order).

 

[uscbucsfan]

I want the one that's going to show he's focused on leading a team to deliver FSD, Optimus, TSLA > (Aramco+Apple)
(not necessarily in that order).

We all do, but we could just as easily get the Elon that was completely down in the Q3 call and was negative the entire call.

Edit: No one should be expecting FSD to be solved this year and even if they say that, it won't do anything with the stock considering how often they say it.

 

[TrendTrader007]

Last time stock closed in red 5 straight weeks in a row was in May, 2021. it bottomed that week at $182.33 from a high of $260.26 almost 6 weeks prior and then rallied to $414.50 over next 24 weeks
if we close this week in red, which we most likely will, then last high was $265.13 , four weeks prior and low $207.56

 

[UkNorthampton]

Ahem, you forgot about Model S and X.

I'm in the UK... but yes, for Left-Hand Drive (LHD) markets. Of course a fully loaded BMW is probably more expensive than a Plaid. It may come down to performance over Cobbled streets.

 

[Causalien]

Wonder what percentage you fine folks have your net worth tied up in TSLA?

Me I'm well over 90%.

Eyeball it about 25% now. Cause I had 3 other things going on with the same suceess of TSLA.

TSLA was the first though and accounted for 100% of my networth at one point.

 

[UncaNed]

Well, I bought most all of my NVDA and NVDL about a year ago. Who knows, maybe it still is before the big spike. I mostly traded Enphase for Nvidia.

Wonder how soon it will start making significant numbers of semis??

 

[Artful Dodger]

Wonder what percentage you fine folks have your net worth tied up in TSLA?

Me I'm well over 90%.

Me, I'm right around 50:50

That's right, I spent half my money on TSLA stock. The other half I just WASTED.

 

[Musskiah]

Last time stock closed in red 5 straight weeks in a row was in May, 2021. it bottomed that week at $182.33 from a high of $260.26 almost 6 weeks prior and then rallied to $414.50 over next 24 weeks
if we close this week in red, which we most likely will, then last high was $265.13 , four weeks prior and low $207.56

How about the time prior to that?

 

[Thekiwi]

View attachment 1010437
Tsla's price to sales is trending to 3 yr lows at about 7.6 (Jan '23 hit 4.6). If we continue to see overall sentiment stay like this we'll likely see tsla close the year out near $295 assuming about 2.3 million in vehicle production

Price to sales is an absolutely meaningless metric.

 

[MC3OZ]

CT ramp will be very slow due to 4680 ramp also being slow. Something like 80K CT's sold in 2024.

I don't necessarily disagree with 80K CT's sold in 2024, but that is around 80K more than were sold in 2023.

Everything is until it isn't

• The 4680 ramp will be slow, until it isn't.
• The market will underrate Tesla, until it is reluctantly forced to overrate it.
• The wall of FUD will seem overwhelming, until it burns off like fog on a sunny day.
• FSD will not work, until it does.
• The macro environment will not improve, until it does.

Sometimes what seems like a negative is actually as positive..

I got 2 things out of the Autoline video...

1) The Chinese are no longer interested in benchmarking legacy OEMs because they consider they are ahead on EV technology and can't learn anything useful from legacy auto. Any partnerships are get a lever to allow Chinese exports or factories overseas.,

2) One Chinese OEM is all in on Gen3 production and may even beat Tesla to market.

This second point will be spun as a negative, but it will be no different to the Bolt beating the Model 3. room for both in the market.

The big picture is that the combination of the Tesla Gen3 and Chinese Gen3 cars really accelerate the mission and convince even the slow learners that ICE is dead and EVs are the future. Once the wall of FUD evaporates EVs will become more desirable and that will lift prices and margins, especially if the macro environment improves.

Panasonic making 2170s is simply a safer, faster lower risk path to more cell, these can be used on Model 3/Y and the Semi. Converting the Model 3 to 4680's probably isn't possible without major reengineering, 4680s would not provide significant advantages in the Semi.

What will happen is always more important than when it will happen.

 

[geometro]

You’ve Formed Your Opinion on EVs. Now Let Me Change It. — The Wall Street Journal

Frozen Teslas, unsold inventory piling up at dealerships, production woes—yet sales of electric vehicles still continue to rise. Dan Neil is here to address all your EV fears and doubts.

apple.news

 

[2daMoon]

Last time stock closed in red 5 straight weeks in a row was in May, 2021. it bottomed that week at $182.33 from a high of $260.26 almost 6 weeks prior and then rallied to $414.50 over next 24 weeks
if we close this week in red, which we most likely will, then last high was $265.13 , four weeks prior and low $207.56

When I read this aloud to myself all I hear is a melodic tink, tink, tink of a spring being wound up.

 

[SmokyPeat]

I don't necessarily disagree with 80K CT's sold in 2024, but that is around 80K more than were sold in 2023.

Everything is until it isn't

• The 4680 ramp will be slow, until it isn't.
• The market will underrate Tesla, until it is reluctantly forced to overrate it.
• The wall of FUD will seem overwhelming, until it burns off like fog on a sunny day.
• FSD will not work, until it does.
• The macro environment will not improve, until it does.

• 
  
  The macro environment looks pretty good to me.
  

 

[Zaddy Daddy]

Gross earnings are going up because: (Profit/vehicle) x (No. of Deliveries). It's just Tesla's outsized Capital Spend right now that masks their profitability.

At this point, you are either bold faced lying or really shouldn't be providing insight on these sorts of details. It's pretty easy to go look up Tesla's earnings and see:

Gross profits are down. This is before OpEx or CapEx.

Just total nonsense.

 

[aronth5]

Me too. I know a few people ready to buy a Model Y but after seeing the Model 3 refresh reviews, they have decided to wait for the Model Y refresh.

I typically keep my cars for a long time but may make an exception and trade in my Y for the refresh one if it feels like a big enough “improvement”.

One potential positive for margins in 2024:

Not expecting too much magic for FSD v12.1.1, but if end-to-end really does bring some significant improvements to smoothness and reduction in unnecessary braking with v12 builds—even if not perfect—we could start seeing significant uptake in FSD revenue this year.

For all cars, this is near 100% GM. And the other benefit is that many cars in the existing fleet could buy it or subscribe, which again is nearly 100% additional margin.

This could have a significant impact on Tesla’s auto margins. Imagine 15% of Tesla’s vehicles instantly tripling or quadrupling their profits.

FSD doesn’t need to be autonomous to have an impact on valuations. A dramatic-enough improvement some time in v12 in just usability could yield a 500 or more basis point improvement in auto margins.

And if it gets that good, then the chance of other OEMs licensing the tech improves greatly as well.

The expected general drop in interest rates this year should help with demand and margins too.

Let’s also not forget the continued energy ramp, which analysts continue to not properly factor into their estimates.

Provide a true L3 not the crappy Mercedes system where Tesla enables driver access to videos (Netflix etc.) and can legally text and FSD revenue will jump significantly. Full autonomous driving isn't the needed to spike revenue and we know L4/L5 is going to take awhile longer to implement.

 

[Blue horseshoe]

Price to sales is an absolutely meaningless metric.

P/e looks similar for the same 3 year chart. Evaluating future estimates has much wider discrepancies if you just look at p/e.

 

[Ipcress]

obviously is not, as you can get multiple LLMs to write that but no software to 100% drive your car to the supermarket. yet.

2024--the year of Less iffy!