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I would maybe agree if Mr. Beast didn't put the disclaimer on his video. Others who tweeted Mr. Beast said they've had 30 million views and were paid $100. It's a ways out from taking anything away from Youtube. Irrelevant to Tesla anyway.
The only relevance to Tesla is of Elon is forced to sell Tesla shares to fund X.
While that is often claimed to be the case, there is no solid evidence either way, that I am aware of.
How much content providers are paid is a function of the quality of the advertisers it attracts. Any content that doesn't specifically attract targeted advertising, goes in the general bucket and will be paid less.
IMO if we look at many media outlets we may find that content providers may often only get a thin slice of the pie.
I don't buy the narrative that X is a "basket case", because I have 2 eyes and a brain that seem to work.
It's no secret that X/Twitter is divisive and tanked from what Elon paid, but everything else is a guess. Elon has even said it's never been worth near what he paid for it. What that means is a guess.
I gotta say - humanity is a f***ing joke. The ONE company on this planet doing more to create a better way of living and people want to tear it down (FUD) or say it's a bad investment. BRO. Greedy little monkeys lost in the shuffle just tryin to get their banana....sigh....
For fun, I'll predict the answers to those 6 questions, if asked on the call:
Question: Given that you moved the start of the next generation compact vehicle production to Austin, has the timeline improved so that we might see next generation platform vehicles in 2025?
My predicted answer: this call is really not the place to discuss future products and their timelines. We will have a separate event when the time comes to announce those products.
Question: When will Tesla start construction on the Giga Nevada expansion and Giga Mexico, and when can we expect each of these to produce their first product such as 4680, Semi, and next generation vehicles?
My predicted answer: construction has begun for both -- earthwork and other preparation is ongoing at both sites. As to precise timelines for products from each, that will depend on many variables in both construction, machinery delivery and commissioning, and supplylines.
Question: Should retail investors be concerned that Elon has stated he is uncomfrotable expanding AI and robotics at Tesla if he doesn't have 25% of voting?
My predicted answer:
Elon says: It wasn't an ultimatum or threat, and my relationship with the board is good. In context, I was saying that AI and robotics are critical technologies with large potential for both benefits and harms to humanity. I love humanity. There needs to be balance, so that I have enough voting power to guide the projects, but that I can also be over-ruled if enough shareholders disagree or think I am making a mistake. It would be a mistake to let institutional investors with only short-term profits in mind, and not the long term welfare of humanity, gather a controlling stake and push things in the wrong direction.
Somebody else from the Tesla board or leadership team: Yeah, Elon's viewpoint here shouldn't be a concern. Media spin without context didn't present the whole story here, and we are all on the same page of doing what is best for both Tesla and humanity.
Question: How many cybertruck orders are in the queue and when do you anticipate you will be able to fill existing orders?
Side note: this question states "orders" not reservations...which is a little awkward since they are really only offering orders for the Foundation series currently, if I remember correctly... I do suspect that the answer will side-step that a bit.
My predicted answer: We have well over a million pre-orders for the Cybertruck, we aren't doing any traditional advertising, and we have lines at our showrooms just to view Cybertruck. We are currently only allowing confirmed orders for the very special, limited Foundation series. Even once we ramp, it would take years to serve all of the pre-orders. At this point in time, we are not concerned about the number of orders, but in ramping production as quickly as we can to deliver this truly special product.
Question: Can we get Tesla Energy volumes reported in the P&D?
My predicted answer: I think the time is right for that. Megapack volumes are increasing rapidly, with quasi-infinite demand, well beyond our current production. Yeah, I think we can look into reporting that on P&D.
Question: What has been the barrier to ramping 4680 cells to the multi-million cells per week rate and when do you expect to get there?
Side note: I like this question, and I don't have an obvious answer.
Potential predicted answer: With any new technology, prototypes are easy and production is hard. There are many pieces that need to line up, and many things that only become apparent as you try to ramp up production. With 4680, not only are we developing our own cell production technology, but we are also taking steps to optimize and improve with each new generation of cells. Right now, we think we've got the current generation figured out, but we still have to install the production capacity for it. We have one line running now, with four more production lines expected in the coming months, and another four after that. But raw materials and other supply lines will need to ramp up in parallel. We will get there as quick as we can.
I beg to differ .
Starting 2 nd question we will veer off into inflation, deflation, recession and how bad US and world economy is going to get And if margins are not killed no one else will be able to afford a Tesla anymore .and how Doge is going save us all from the world economic collapse ./s
"Slowly dying" and "Titanic" seem a little dramatic. Are you playing the angles as an investor (as you are entitled to do) or playing the long game and holding strong? A lot of pessimism lately. I get it. The SP has disappointed of late, but in relative terms, Tesla is by far the strongest player in the EV space and in autos overall.
Oh I'm a simple man, I buy and HOLD and that's it. No options, no timing the market, I'll own my TSLA shares well past 2030 most likely. I'm waiting until both Robotaxis are in full service and Optimus bots are working all over the world before I even think of selling.
It is likely any potential sale of stock by Elon to fund X operations/debt payments will be tiny in comparison to his massive sales he initially had to make to actually buy twitter.
He can't sell anymore after he viciously tweeted he wanted more ownership and would develop bots and ai outside of Tesla. I'm not saying he doesn't deserve it, because he does.
Haha. I know I know. Being on here since 2012, I just thought by now the FUD would have slowed because of how much the company was expected to grow. So will 2035 and beyond be the same? Growth --> dominance doesn't matter because society is so narrow minded....what will WS use to pull down Tesla then? The.game.never.ends.
I gotta say - humanity is a f***ing joke. The ONE company on this planet doing more to create a better way of living and people want to tear it down (FUD) or say it's a bad investment. BRO. Greedy little monkeys lost in the shuffle just tryin to get their your banana....sigh....
Connecting back to the idea of another EV potentially dethroning the Model Y, and your note here that there are more and more EV's in the category, there's a couple pieces that even many Auto and other journalists/bloggers and analysts don't seem to understand, especially when they write about the competition coming for Tesla:
The existance of a car model for sale does not mean it can rapidly ramp up production rates.
No matter what drives the demand (supercharger access or otherwise), a company producing a car at a rate of 30,000 or even 100,000 per year can't suddenly ramp up by a factor of 10. They're not just running their factory at 10% capacity waiting for demand to kick in...they likely designed that production line and every aspect of their supply chain for their current production volume or slightly higher, and those manufacturers won't just be able to ramp up production by a factor of 10 or more in a year. Probably not two years either.
Additionally, the other manufacturers seem to be pretty set on having many slightly different models to sell, each addressing some niche of personal taste, rather than putting their manufacturing toward producing one model in high numbers.
Think about all the different SUV/CUV's that Ford, for example, sells. They aren't looking for big sales numbers of any of them...there's just too many models for that. Their business is based on producing ever more niche vehicles that marketing can push folks toward.
Ford's SUV/CUV lineup includes: Escape, Bronco Sport, Bronco, Edge, Explorer, Expedition and Expedition MAX, and also the Mach-E. And each of those models is divided among a bunch of different trim levels, with an assortment of style and other options added on. Sure, each one has a unique appeal...but you have to wonder if manufacturing would be simplified (and costs and prices reduced) and total sales minimally affected if they consolidated things down a bit.
Tangential note: I'm convinced the main purpose of advertising in traditional auto is to "help" viewers feel like part of one of these niches. So they "know" if they are more of an Escape person or a Bronco Sport person...or if their personality better fits an Edge or Explorer. While one of those might be slightly more off-road capable than the other (or whatever), for most people the choice is purely one of fashion/style, since the use case for most drivers is the same -- either option will get them to and from the grocery store and work and kids sports events just as successfully...they just look different sitting in the driveway.
Think about Toyota -- with the Corolla and Camry, they do actually have pretty darned high volume for individual models (with each of those split among many trim levels, of course). But last I heard, their long-term EV plans are to produce a few million a year spread out over something like 30 models. So, their EV goal is to produce each one at about the 100,000 level.Even Toyota, which does produce the Corolla and Camry in high numbers
[*]
The Model Y alone is in the ballpark of 1,000,000 per year globally, and increasing -- we know that neither Austin nor Berlin are consistently producing at their full Model Y volume, and we also know the struggles Tesla goes through (battery supplies, etc.) as they ramp production. Everybody else would have similar, or even worse struggles...and they are starting from a smaller base.
I believe VW as a whole sold fewer than 400,000 EV's in 2023 split among several models...so ballpark 100,000 for each.
I can't find global EV-only numbers for Hyundai/Kia, but they also sell several EV models, and I believe their total EV sale are also in that "a few 100K per year" range...so their best seller is probably in the 100,000 ballpark too. Hyundai has also said that they plan to have 30+ EV models during the 2030's -- they aren't going for volume on individual models.
I believe the Mustang Mach-E sold fewer than 100,000 globally in 2023.
It looks like the Ford Lightning sold fewer than 30,000 in 2023.
There are many Chinese manufacturers that I don't know much about, but they also seem to be going for the "multiple model" approach. BYD has a couple models in the 200-300,000 range, but there's no reason to think production of those models would triple in a year or two.
There just isn't an EV model I'm seeing that could realistically approach the production volume in the next couple years to have a chance at outselling the Model Y.... if any vehicle is to outsell the Model Y in 2024, it would have to be a smaller increase to an already big volume seller, so the only remote possibility there is something like the Corolla or F-Series, but I don't think either Toyota or Ford would want to ramp up factories and cut prices to drive those sales numbers.
AAPL went from under a $trillion in MktCap to god-knows-what-now over the past few years all without introducing a single new type of product. All gains just from the mo-mo gravy train...
In Q4 2023, the Toyota group sold in the U.S. 16,657 plug-in electric cars (up 58% year-over-year), which represents 2.7% of the total volume.
insideevs.com
This says US sales of pure BEVs were a little under 15k, then another 25k or so of plug-in hybrids. DId they have another ~90k BEV sales somewhere else?
Also does that Hyundai number include Kia? Seems like it should but then the 260k seems unreasonably low?
Hyundai Motor Group, which controls both Hyundai Motor and Kia Corp., ranked seventh globally, posting sales of 378,462 electric vehicles (EVs), battery electr
www.businesskorea.co.kr
This says they were at 294k (pure BEVs) by end of September, so should be nearer 400k for the full year?
It is likely any potential sale of stock by Elon to fund X operations/debt payments will be tiny in comparison to his massive sales he initially had to make to actually buy twitter.
AAPL went from under a $trillion in MktCap to god-knows-what-now over the past few years all without introducing a single new type of product. All gains just from the mo-mo gravy train...
Apple has great profit margins though. Tesla just took an axe to their profit margins. And yes in time Tesla will get margins back once Megapack sales grow and FSD is selling and Optimus is going out to customers. Or if the cars reduce COGS once more, and they will, but I think Tesla will drop auto prices as COGS go down from here on out to keep the pressure on the competition.
I don't think we'll see great margins for Tesla again on autos alone. It will take other products selling at volume to give us Apple like numbers again, and honestly I think we are still a few years away from that, sadly.
Apple has great profit margins though. Tesla just took an axe to their profit margins. And yes in time Tesla will get margins back once Megapack sales grow and FSD is selling and Optimus is going out to customers. Or if the cars reduce COGS once more, and they will, but I think Tesla will drop auto prices as COGS go down from here on out to keep the pressure on the competition.
I don't think we'll see great margins for Tesla again on autos alone. It will take other products selling at volume to give us Apple like numbers again, and honestly I think we are still a few years away from that, sadly.
Tesla will drop prices as COGS go down mostly because Tesla's Master Plan(s) told us they would do this in order to accelerate the transition to sustainable energy.
I don't think putting pressure on the competition is a consideration. Elon has always said that Tesla cannot do this alone and Tesla has all along tried to nicely encourage legacy auto makers toward the goal.
Besides, legacy OEMs are doing a fine job of putting pressure on themselves already. To purposefully hit them while they're down would just be bullying.
