Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[The Accountant]

@The Accountant is this where we'll see IRA figures?

View attachment 1011905

The IRA credits are buried in Cost of Goods Sold (a reduction in costs).
Here is an excerpt from the Q3 10Q:

 

[Christine69420]

Who is deciding on the pause music?

 

[Mengy]

I was a little hopeful until i saw this:

View attachment 1011910

But...Q4 was actually pretty good? It's the guidance for 2024 which is disappointing?

 

[heltok]

So in summary. Tesla Model 3 ramp was amazing and Model Y even better. Today we are at the end of the model Y ramp and the growth rate is taking a breather. Cybertruck will be lower volume so it will not meaningfully impact numbers. $25k Model will likely start production around mid 2025 so the next 1.5years will mostly be boring for the automotive story. Storage is growing and will keep growing in 2024 but is still dwarfed by automotive. V12 is the wildcard that might be released wide and impact FSD revenue and profits. Robotaxi and Optimus is the big bet, it may or may not pay off. It's Tesla bet the company kind of investment, like Meta did with Metaverse. Tesla will survive without it, but if investors want to beat S&P500 they are betting that it will happen and be successful.

 

[Unpilot]

Late start...hard to believe/s

 

[Richard007]

Audio but no video here in 5,4,3,2,

 

[GhostSkater]

I freely admit I have considered only BEVs. Since nearly all pouch users have faced significant problems, that one probably was inevitable. Still, they should have known better.

Frankly I admit I think of their prismatics, Blade as a quite substantial advance.

Anyway, just thinking about Tesla Free Cash Flow makes me more convinced that I already was that they have no peer in operating quality. None of the Chinese competitors ahem anything even approaching TSLA financial and logistical talents. Strongly none have yet successfully copied the direct sales model although several Geely companies are trying to approach that, notably Polestar and, in some countries Volvo.

This isn't meant as an answer for you, but just a clarification for others

Pouch = Lasagna, many individual layer of cathode, separator and anode pilled up over and over and then connected electrically outside the active area of the cell. Alignment and connection of the many layers is what causes problems in them

Prismatic/Cylindrical = Continuous winding of cathode, separator and anode, either in a cylinder or in a square with rounded corners

 

[uscbucsfan]

V12 is the wildcard that might be released wide and impact FSD revenue and profits

How will V12 impact revenue and profits? The only possibility is that it's so amazing that the take rate increases, but currently it looks like a step iteration from V11. The excitement is that it should improve quicker after release.

 

[Todd Burch]

How will V12 impact revenue and profits? The only possibility is that it's so amazing that the take rate increases, but currently it looks like a step iteration from V11. The excitement is that it should improve quicker after release.

?

All reports from those that have driven it say it is far more than a step iteration. And yes, I’m talking about more than just Omar.

The smoothness increase alone might bring more people back into the fold.

 

[cliff harris]

I'm calling it now. This is happy upbeat elon!

 

[uscbucsfan]

?

All reports from those that have driven it say it is far more than a step iteration. And yes, I’m talking about more than just Omar.

The smoothness increase alone might bring more people back into the fold.

That's debatable (and not really something to argue here), but regardless...how would it add revenue and profits?

 

[lafrisbee]

I see a lot of people trying to be positive by talking of the $25(?)k car in 2 years (not 18 months, sorry).
The Positive outlook for the next two years is FSD development (not completion unless Dojo kicks in) and Energy.
I think the energy side being down has to have a hidden positive reason.

 

[texas_star_TM3]

I see a lot of people trying to be positive by talking of the $29k car in 2 years (not 18 months, sorry).
The Positive outlook for the next to years is FSD development (not completion unless Dojo kicks in) and Energy.

Hasn't FSD been the "positive outlook for the next years" for multiple years now?

 

[ZeApelido]

"very far along on next gen vehicle"

 

[thx1139]

My biggest issue is that it looks like to me that Tesla didnt better prepare for 2024 in 2023. From losing IRA tax credits on the Model 3, to the delay in launching the Model 3 Highland in USA. To not shifting production around at facilities to better make use of them. Amazes me that Fremont is still so much ahead of Texas. Honestly I cant imagine that the Model NG shouldnt be 100% designed already. Why wasnt production facility in Texas being built already. Why is Semi still not really launched. Seems like someone was pre-occupied. Tesla should be absolutely killing the other manufacturers with the competitive advantage they have in the USA and I mean much more than they were a year ago.

 

[texas_star_TM3]

My biggest issue is that it looks like to me that Tesla didnt better prepare for 2024 in 2023. From losing IRA tax credits on the Model 3, to the delay in launching the Model 3 Highland in USA. To not shifting production around at facilities to better make use of them. Amazes me that Fremont is still so much ahead of Texas. Honestly I cant imagine that the Model NG shouldnt be 100% designed already. Why wasnt production facility in Texas being built already. Why is Semi still not really launched. Seems like someone was pre-occupied. Tesla should be absolutely killing the other manufacturers with the competitive advantage they have in the USA and I mean much more than they were a year ago.

they should be rolling the Model NG out right now... rather than wasting resources/ manufacturing capacities on the niche Cybertruck...

 

[texas_star_TM3]

"very far along on next gen vehicle"

so far along they haven't unveiled it yet or are anywhere near unveiling... yet the Cybertruck was unveiled 4 years before it was delivered. So yeah.... not too confident with "mid-2025". I'm super happy they will do a sub $30k vehicle... just not sure we will see it before 2026.

 

[Electroman]

I am humbled again - way off! Congrats to the folks with the better crystal ball.

Thank you --> Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

 

[cliff harris]

Its almost like something happened globally that threw the entire manufacturing industry into chaos since the cybertruck was unveiled. Maybe there was a pandemic?

 

[30seconds]

My biggest issue is that it looks like to me that Tesla didnt better prepare for 2024 in 2023. From losing IRA tax credits on the Model 3, to the delay in launching the Model 3 Highland in USA. To not shifting production around at facilities to better make use of them. Amazes me that Fremont is still so much ahead of Texas. Honestly I cant imagine that the Model NG shouldnt be 100% designed already. Why wasnt production facility in Texas being built already. Why is Semi still not really launched. Seems like someone was pre-occupied. Tesla should be absolutely killing the other manufacturers with the competitive advantage they have in the USA and I mean much more than they were a year ago.

And so far the Cybertruck is looking like the Model X - a next gen, technically superior product with a limited audience and financial impact.