Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Carl Raymond]

It's gonna be Optimus. Just join the dots - it's barely hiding in plain site.

Building the next Gen car? That would be as slow as using humans.

I think they’ll try to keep it hands free, possibly start to finish. Like a cannery or a 4680 line. In my dreams, the line has a 6 second cadence. Why not? It gets them to 20m run rate.

It’s never been done. Hasn’t stopped Musk so far.

 

[Ellec]

Building the next Gen car? That would be as slow as using humans.

I think they’ll try to keep it hands free, possibly start to finish. Like a cannery or a 4680 line. In my dreams, the line has a 6 second cadence. Why not? It gets them to 20m run rate.

It’s never been done. Hasn’t stopped Musk so far.

It will progress to all robots/automated eventually as Elon spoke about years ago. However I think it will happen gradually as they ramp up to 10-20+ million. They are and have been laying the foundations with each new iteration of the vehicle. Exciting to watch it all unfold.

 

[Buckminster]

Couldn't be more different to:

 

[jerry33]

With respect to selling the Cybertruck in China, I have a hard time imagining the Chinese Communist Party allowing Chinese civilians to buy bullet resistant, quasi-armored personnel carriers.

It's not bullet proof to any military grade weapon (other than a few handguns). I doubt any government would be particularly worried about this aspect. The windows aren't even remotely bullet proof.

 

[mongo]

Anyone with audio/electrical saavy...

Would the 48V architecture improve upon the clarity of the audio system?

There is not really any design reason that it should when comparing two well designed systems.

Localized amplifiers with digital inputs reduce the length of speaker wire (which can impact speaker response) and remove low level analog feeds (which can pick up electrical noise). These can improve fidelity and lower the noise floor.

However, these effects are usually only an issue in the extreme.

 

[mongo]

View attachment 1013542
Couldn't be more different to:
View attachment 1013543

Kahn Motors: We think in two dimensions...

 

[aronth5]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1751979428727730434

The Chinese are not playing stupid games.... It's truly only Tesla and the Chinese that will survive the Price Wars, everyone else is dead, and they know it.

The same goes for solar installs. China is rapidly outpacing the rest of the world. Say what you will about the political system China just knows how to get things done.

China forecast to install record 230GW of new renewable capacity in 2023

 

[uscbucsfan]

It's not bullet proof to any military grade weapon (other than a few handguns). I doubt any government would be particularly worried about this aspect. The windows aren't even remotely bullet proof.

It's really not bulletproof to many or any handguns on the street. Only subsonic rounds won't penetrate. 9mm in your average gun goes right through.

 

[Artful Dodger]

In my dreams, the line has a 6 second cadence.

Model Y GA line speed is reportedly 42s per station. Each GA line with 2 shifts, 15 production hours per day, 6 days/wk and 339 working days per year produces 85/hr, 643/shift, 1286/day, 7,700/wk and 435K/yr. Tesla rates Giga Berlin at 375K/yr capacity which is 86% utilization.

A single Model 2 GA line with a per-station interval of 20s would have 915K nominal capacity per the above, or 1M/yr if run 16.5 hrs/days. If Model 2 has a 41KWh pack, that's suspiciously close to how many 4860 cells will be available from bty lines 4-8 at Giga Texas when it comes online by end-of-2024.

They are setting themselves up to win.

 

[GhostSkater]

Before the Mods come in and say, Knock it off …

Since you touched on the subject, I want to thank the mods for letting the conversations go and not interfering, in my opinion this topic got way better since people don’t have to worry about what can and can’t be said here anymore

Yeah, some discussions go for too long, but you can just scroll past or mute that person if it comes to it

There shouldn’t be brain power wasted on thinking about what can be said or not, instead just use it all on the discussion of the moment

Thanks again

 

[GhostSkater]

Anyone with audio/electrical saavy...

Would the 48V architecture improve upon the clarity of the audio system?

Different of the other answers, maybe yes, but it certainly simplifies amplifier design, which for many purists the less components means a cleaner signal, debatable, but there is a manufacturing advantage

Why? Ohms Law. Speakers are usually 4 to 8 ohms, this means that at 12 V, the maximum theoretical RMS power a amplifier can have is 13 W to 25 W, this is simply too little power for anything other than maybe a tweeter

What amplifiers do is to boost the voltage with a internal power supply, on aftermarket car amps, a huge portion of the internal space is taken by that

Now, on 48 V, the power becomes 200 to 400 W, more than enough even for the subwoofers

I suspect this is why the Cybertruck can send audio over its Ethernet BUS and have amplifiers spread all around, once you take out the power supply for each amp, it becomes way cheaper and smaller

Here is an example of a Class D amplifier that has two 100 W channels, Tesla can likely make the PCB much smaller when integrated with other functions in the same PCB, there is barely any components, the amplifier chip itself and the heatsink and a few passive ones

Edit: I think I just remembered PeterBannon saying that the amplifiers still run at 12 V, which is weird due to all the above, they would need to step down from 48 V only to boost up again? Maybe due to the number of speakers they can run the low power 12 V provides directly and only for the subwoofers run at higher voltages

My point still stands, if you run directly from 48 V you have a higher power potential with fewer components

 

[elasalle]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1752256056678396055

 

[2daMoon]

View attachment 1013502
Snap poll: What is the machine that will build gen 3 that is hard to copy?
Interesting result. Everybody (except me and 4 more crazies) thinks Tesla will create machines (that are hard to copy) that will assist humans (that's right millions of humans building 10m cars a year artisanal style) in making cars. The easily copied not-a-machine Optimus will be exclusively sold to Parisian dog owners to pickup poop because they are too dangerous in factories. Or maybe sold to all factories except Tesla factories. On the same month as Tesla transitions to a new vehicle build.

I have never felt more super bullish.

Tesla in 5 years:
View attachment 1013507
Note the hard to copy wall hanging systems.

Okay, I can't let you all win this bet. How about logistics? Vacuum pipes deliver the right component to the right human at the right time.

View attachment 1013508
But for sub assemblies...

Just because I voted "Other" doesn't necessarily mean I don't think Optimus won't be on the assembly line.

I think there may be another machine involved that is (also) hard to copy.

 

[joh01652]

Elon reposted this on his Twitter page:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1752199525068845493

The rest of the tweet says: "What's crazy is that Model Y production started only 4 years ago.Note: While others have already claimed the Model Y was the best-selling car in the world in 2023, tonight we received Toyota's official 2023 sales data to support the claim, which is why I waited to report the news until now."

 

[Cult Member]

Different of the other answers, maybe yes, but it certainly simplifies amplifier design, which for many purists the less components means a cleaner signal, debatable, but there is a manufacturing advantage

Why? Ohms Law. Speakers are usually 4 to 8 ohms, this means that at 12 V, the maximum theoretical RMS power a amplifier can have is 13 W to 25 W, this is simply too little power for anything other than maybe a tweeter

What amplifiers do is to boost the voltage with a internal power supply, on aftermarket car amps, a huge portion of the internal space is taken by that

Now, on 48 V, the power becomes 200 to 400 W, more than enough even for the subwoofers

I suspect this is why the Cybertruck can send audio over its Ethernet BUS and have amplifiers spread all around, once you take out the power supply for each amp, it becomes way cheaper and smaller

Here is an example of a Class D amplifier that has two 100 W channels, Tesla can likely make the PCB much smaller when integrated with other functions in the same PCB, there is barely any components, the amplifier chip itself and the heatsink and a few passive ones

View attachment 1013553

Edit: I think I just remembered PeterBannon saying that the amplifiers still run at 12 V, which is weird due to all the above, they would need to step down from 48 V only to boost up again? Maybe due to the number of speakers they can run the low power 12 V provides directly and only for the subwoofers run at higher voltages

My point still stands, if you run directly from 48 V you have a higher power potential with fewer components

A standard amplifier from TI:

TPA3255​

Class D audio amplifier with analog input, 315 W stereo, 600 W mono, 18 to 53.5 V supply voltage.

That's all you need with 48 V and for sure you'll find variants with digital input.

 

[mongo]

Different of the other answers, maybe yes, but it certainly simplifies amplifier design, which for many purists the less components means a cleaner signal, debatable, but there is a manufacturing advantage

Why? Ohms Law. Speakers are usually 4 to 8 ohms, this means that at 12 V, the maximum theoretical RMS power a amplifier can have is 13 W to 25 W, this is simply too little power for anything other than maybe a tweeter

What amplifiers do is to boost the voltage with a internal power supply, on aftermarket car amps, a huge portion of the internal space is taken by that

Now, on 48 V, the power becomes 200 to 400 W, more than enough even for the subwoofers

I suspect this is why the Cybertruck can send audio over its Ethernet BUS and have amplifiers spread all around, once you take out the power supply for each amp, it becomes way cheaper and smaller

Here is an example of a Class D amplifier that has two 100 W channels, Tesla can likely make the PCB much smaller when integrated with other functions in the same PCB, there is barely any components, the amplifier chip itself and the heatsink and a few passive ones

View attachment 1013553

Edit: I think I just remembered PeterBannon saying that the amplifiers still run at 12 V, which is weird due to all the above, they would need to step down from 48 V only to boost up again? Maybe due to the number of speakers they can run the low power 12 V provides directly and only for the subwoofers run at higher voltages

My point still stands, if you run directly from 48 V you have a higher power potential with fewer components

That's a great point regarding potential elimination of the voltage adjustment stage. Pete said 24V in the Munro Tesla design team meeting video which I assume is the amplifier input rail. A step down converter is going to give cleaner power (for the same effort) than a boost converter. Best converter is no converter. Tesla speakers are in the 2-4 Ohm range so 24V allows 144W to 288W. 48V would allow higher resistance speakers with lower wiring loss, but that might be worth the extra parts.

Although, to the original question, does that result in an improved audio experience?

 

[lascavarian]

I think they’ll try to keep it hands free, possibly start to finish.

I see your point for traditional fixed manufacturing lines and there will be some of that.

Outside the box thinking focuses exactly on hands. Imagine tasks reduced to hand functions. AI moves among bots delivering as many hands as required for each task. Complete flexibility by the second.

Bots work in twins, trips or quads to deliver the necessary hand tasks with complete positional flexibility. We have to be open to such opportunities and how bots can open possibilities largely unthinkable by traditional approaches.

Its gona be fun!

 

[GhostSkater]

Although, to the original question, does that result in an improved audio experience?

In a vehicle? Doubt even the most hardcore audiophiles would notice the difference on an blind A/B test

And good point on the stepping down for cleaning the input, Pete pointed out that the 48 V line is quite noisy

 

[SunCatcher]

As someone who has never owned a pickup truck and is definitely not a truck person I prefer reviews from people who have experience owning legacy ICE trucks and use them to do trucky things. Please keep the reviews coming.

In years past, @gene has shared a few off road videos driving 4X4 pick-ups with friends through the deserts and mountains of So. California, including Death Valley IIRC. With any luck, maybe he'll revisit some of these places in his new CT, and give us a report, as time allows? We'll be watching... TIA Gene!

 

[Knightshade]

Just get a free subscription on NextDNS and have a look at the many websites your TV (LG, Samsung, Philips or whatever brand) is connecting to, all the time. You will be unpleasantly surprised.

I wouldn't be-- it's zero. All my TV comes from a local plex server, the TV itself just serves as a very high quality OLED dumb display

Interesting result. Everybody (except me and 4 more crazies) thinks Tesla will create machines (that are hard to copy) that will assist humans (that's right millions of humans building 10m cars a year artisanal style) in making cars.

You realize Toyota builds more than 10M cars a year already-using machines and humans- and none of it is especially "artisanal" right?

There's a 0.00% chance Tesla is banking their entire next-gen unboxed process on robots they "hope" to have doing significant useful work sometime in the future.

Optimius serving as cheap replacements for unboxed human assembly line workers is a bonus feature if it happens, not a requirement.

Further- optimus, functionally, is "easily replicable" by...a human in this context. It's more expensive long term, but it's easy to replicate two arms, two legs, and perception via humans. Custom machines are HARDER to replicate because you can't just hire them off the streets.

Now, on 48 V, the power becomes 200 to 400 W, more than enough even for the subwoofers

I mean, if you like kinda small subs, sure...