Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[mongo]

In my tyro’s ignorance, wherein it seems to me First Principles tells us that the necessity of a heat sink means a circuit has been poorly designed. Why do amplifiers always demonstrate this entropy?

Because linearity and dissipation are strongly linked and we are highly perceptive of harmonics.

And now, to step on the favorite corns of many, likely to incur the downthumb wrath of just about all other than possibly those who by vocation or avocation - maybe @gene and a handful of others - deeply understand the topic….it is hard to imagine a vessel inherently more ridiculous for fine acoustics than an automobile.

But a somewhat sealed vessel is a great medium for pressurizing via a sealed variable volume transducer.
(All about the bass)

 

[MartinAustin]

One thing I know I know very little about: electronics, and one thing I think I do: acoustics -

In my tyro’s ignorance, wherein it seems to me First Principles tells us that the necessity of a heat sink means a circuit has been poorly designed. Why do amplifiers always demonstrate this entropy?

And now, to step on the favorite corns of many, likely to incur the downthumb wrath of just about all other than possibly those who by vocation or avocation - maybe @gene and a handful of others - deeply understand the topic….it is hard to imagine a vessel inherently more ridiculous for fine acoustics than an automobile. Badly shaped (cocoons whose inner cavities’ shapes any self-respecting butterfly would reject), poorly constructed (the reflective and absorptive materials are all in stupefyingly wrong places and shapes), and ghastly external interferences (ever-changing tire, road surface, other vehicles, wind & more) all conspire to make any who believe they have fidelity of sound in their cars the object of….pity.

I have been driving a P85 around for over 10yrs that did not have the "Sound Studio" upgrade, as it was known in 2013 - because I have such a great sound system at home that the car could never approach it even with the optional upgrade (and I was right)

 

[SOULPEDL]

One thing I know I know very little about: electronics, and one thing I think I do: acoustics -

In my tyro’s ignorance, wherein it seems to me First Principles tells us that the necessity of a heat sink means a circuit has been poorly designed. Why do amplifiers always demonstrate this entropy?

And now, to step on the favorite corns of many, likely to incur the downthumb wrath of just about all other than possibly those who by vocation or avocation - maybe @gene and a handful of others - deeply understand the topic….it is hard to imagine a vessel inherently more ridiculous for fine acoustics than an automobile. Badly shaped (cocoons whose inner cavities’ shapes any self-respecting butterfly would reject), poorly constructed (the reflective and absorptive materials are all in stupefyingly wrong places and shapes), and ghastly external interferences (ever-changing tire, road surface, other vehicles, wind & more) all conspire to make any who believe they have fidelity of sound in their cars the object of….pity.

(Coming from a former Car Stereo Installer by trade, I couldn't hold back.)

What? Craig PowerPlay wasn't good enough? Jensen 6x9 Triaxials... no? Roll down your windows - glass problem solved.

The best speaker location was the rear deck pointing up at the rear window, using the nearly infinite trunk space on the Olds Cutlass. 12" min for me. Joe Walsh never sounded so good. Better yet, Squonk - Genesis! Rumbles my stomach. And HA... what road noise? The ratio is near zero anyway at my levels.

Did you know Jive Talkin' was because of the sound that a bridge in Miami made when they crossed it? This is important... road noise matters.

 

[Mengy]

hahahahaha . What? Did I hear that right?
"Off Road Adventure Vehicle" is what Elon now calls the Cyber(nota)truck in China.
It is reasoned that he is doing so because... he knows a name is just a name, and is just a marketing tool. Sorta like S3XY?
And he wants to position the truck in the mind of his Chinese buyers as, get this, The Cybernotatruck.
hahahahaha. Now that's funny. He calls this "Cyberturd" a truck when he is shilling it to 'mericans. And then as an "Off-road Adventure Vehicle" to the Chinese.
Tesla goes so far as to separate themselves from the "Cybertruck" name on purpose.
Why? Because he's more than willing to give the Turd a name that will sell it, and recognize that a name isn't in any way shape or form signifying what the vehicle actually is, but just a tool to position it in the market. Which is EXACTLY what I have stated for years. They called it a truck in the USA because they wanted "truck buyers" to consider it and feel more comfortable buying it because after all it clearly says "cyberTurd" right there in the name.
Elon never saw this turd as a truck. He spent zero effort making it a truck. He put all the effort in to making it a big azz van with crappy storage. Vans aren't S3XY though. "Van" doesn't reel in buyers. "Truck." Now TRUCK IS SEXY!
Keep on believing, fanboys. You've let your financial position in the company cloud your ability to see the truth. Be honest. Be honest with yourselves. Quit blathering. Elon never set out to make a real truck. I think what he is being forced to do in China as to the name is closer to the truth. Though the Cyber(nota)truck is not a truck. Don't believe me? call up any Tesla salesman in China and ask them.
Cyber(nota)truck is not a truck except when it suits the sales strategy.
Hmmm, seems like "Cyberbeast" is a step away from Cyberturd too?

Did a Cybertruck kill your dog or something? That was a huge emotional and slanderous dump there, are you okay?

 

[Krugerrand]

Not just Cost of Goods Sold (COGS), R&D and SG&A per vehicle also dropped in 2023.

I did some rough math and calculated that R&D and SG&A per vehicle, dropped about $300 per vehicle in 2023.
This does not impact Gross Profit but does help Operating Profit.
For 2024, a drop in these cost per vehicle may be more difficult due to the slower anticipated sales growth (vs 2023).
I expect to see a tightening of the belt in 2024 for SG&A to drive savings . . . not the toilet paper rationing program but some effort.
Would not be surprised to see an Elon internal email stating "we're spending to much money on x,y,z".

But the toilet paper rationing was such a success. What if they limited janitorial brooms to zero. No broom is the best broom. Janitors use a community electric leaf blower.

 

[AnbaricBike]

For example, this year's ROTH limit is $8K, so I loaded the account with just that. Now, I've set a limit buy at $190.47 which will buy 42 shares with very little left over from that 8K.

Where did you come up with that number?

401(k) limit increases to $23,000 for 2024, IRA limit rises to $7,000 | Internal Revenue Service

IR-2023-203, Nov. 1, 2023 — The Internal Revenue Service announced today that the amount individuals can contribute to their 401(k) plans in 2024 has increased to $23,000, up from $22,500 for 2023.

www.irs.gov

 

[unk45]

One thing I know I know very little about: electronics, and one thing I think I do: acoustics -

.... Badly shaped (cocoons whose inner cavities’ shapes any self-respecting butterfly would reject), poorly constructed (the reflective and absorptive materials are all in stupefyingly wrong places and shapes), and ghastly external interferences (ever-changing tire, road surface, other vehicles, wind & more) all conspire to make any who believe they have fidelity of sound in their cars the object of….pity.

In distant years past I spent large sums of money trying to disprove your thesis, to my dismay.

Because linearity and dissipation are strongly linked and we are highly perceptive of harmonics.
...

But a somewhat sealed vessel is a great medium for pressurizing via a sealed variable volume transducer.
(All about the bass)

As an avid listener to classic and baroque music, not so much so for Tchaikovsky's cannon-filled epic, that 'sealed volume variable transducer' never was attractive to me. Luckily for me, in my pocketbook anyway, is that my advanced age has dampened my auditory senses. Now I'm happy enough with Sonos and my AirPods.

For all of us though, Tesla could and should make some serious inroads to improving our vehicular silence, so we can at least hear the frequencies that that unsuitable environment might afford us. Nobody has really done that well without huge weight penalties. Tesla's recent use of dual pane windows helps, and recent tire innovations including the new Goodyear are helping. we really need some serious innovation.

 

[Stretch2727]

401(k) limit increases to $23,000 for 2024, IRA limit rises to $7,000 | Internal Revenue Service

IR-2023-203, Nov. 1, 2023 — The Internal Revenue Service announced today that the amount individuals can contribute to their 401(k) plans in 2024 has increased to $23,000, up from $22,500 for 2023.

www.irs.gov

Right from the document you posted. We also now know 2daMoon is over 50.

The limit on annual contributions to an IRA increased to $7,000, up from $6,500. The IRA catch‑up contribution limit for individuals aged 50 and over was amended under the SECURE 2.0 Act of 2022 (SECURE 2.0) to include an annual cost‑of‑living adjustment but remains $1,000 for 2024.

 

[2daMoon]

Where did you come up with that number?

401(k) limit increases to $23,000 for 2024, IRA limit rises to $7,000 | Internal Revenue Service

IR-2023-203, Nov. 1, 2023 — The Internal Revenue Service announced today that the amount individuals can contribute to their 401(k) plans in 2024 has increased to $23,000, up from $22,500 for 2023.

www.irs.gov

I'm ancient and decrepit (over 50). So they let me have a higher limit.

Fidelity will limit my purchase to what is allowed. Last year it was $7.5K, and it seems this time 8K was the limit.

This surprised me too, but I trust Fidelity to keep me on the straight and narrow.

 

[Usain]

However, in typical manufacturing, the chassis needs to get the same doors for paint matching, so the GA line is bound to the door line.

What if any door can go with any car? Well then, you can prebuild as many doors as you want off line and buffer them for assembly. Instead of only going at the rate they exit the paint shop, you can assemble as quickly as possible.

So this is something I haven't grokked yet.

How does the unboxed process fix the paint-matching problem? And why is it such a problem in the first place?

 

[mongo]

So this is something I haven't grokked yet.

How does the unboxed process fix the paint-matching problem? And why is it such a problem in the first place?

Human eyes are good at detecting differences in color of objects right next to each other. If the paint mix or application varies from door to panel, that can be noticeable. Same dea .as installing floor tile, siding, or painting a room, you want it all to be from the same dye lot.
I think the paint matching has already been addressed at Tesla and the doors can be/ are mixed currently. Same with bumper covers.

 

[insaneoctane]

View attachment 1013406

This chart really impresses me. While every one of my bills goes in the opposite direction of this chart because of "inflation" or greed, Tesla's COGS somehow defy the macro. Good job Tesla!

 

[jerry33]

In distant years past I spent large sums of money trying to disprove your thesis, to my dismay.

As an avid listener to classic and baroque music, not so much so for Tchaikovsky's cannon-filled epic, that 'sealed volume variable transducer' never was attractive to me. Luckily for me, in my pocketbook anyway, is that my advanced age has dampened my auditory senses. Now I'm happy enough with Sonos and my AirPods.

For all of us though, Tesla could and should make some serious inroads to improving our vehicular silence, so we can at least hear the frequencies that that unsuitable environment might afford us. Nobody has really done that well without huge weight penalties. Tesla's recent use of dual pane windows helps, and recent tire innovations including the new Goodyear are helping. we really need some serious innovation.

With hearing aids, I can just about hear most music in the 2020 X at level 6 at highway speeds. Of course, everyone else would be blasted out of the X. (It doesn't help that many Texas roads are loud by definition due to the aggregate size.) A 12 db noise reduction would be a real blessing. (Volume is reduced by half for each 3 db reduction.)

 

[Usain]

Human eyes are good at detecting differences in color of objects right next to each other. If the paint mix or application varies from door to panel, that can be noticeable. Same dea .as installing floor tile, siding, or painting a room, you want it all to be from the same dye lot.
I think the paint matching has already been addressed at Tesla and the doors can be/ are mixed currently. Same with bumper covers.

So you are saying that the unboxed process is made possible because they have already solved the paint-matching problem?

That would make sense. Is that your conclusion?

 

[DarkandStormy]

Elon reposted this on his Twitter page:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1752199525068845493

The rest of the tweet says: "What's crazy is that Model Y production started only 4 years ago.Note: While others have already claimed the Model Y was the best-selling car in the world in 2023, tonight we received Toyota's official 2023 sales data to support the claim, which is why I waited to report the news until now."

Tesla does not break out sales of Model Y separately.

Anyway, where's that author who claimed Toyota had sold like 600k Corollas in Q1 of 2023?

 

[jerry33]

So this is something I haven't grokked yet.

How does the unboxed process fix the paint-matching problem? And why is it such a problem in the first place?

Each batch of paint is a specific mix which is minutely different but visible to the eye. Each application is also not exactly the same. Think of wallpaper. If you get wallpaper from two different batches, they will not match on the wall in good lighting. I have no idea how the unboxing process fixes this unless Tesla has developed a way where the paint mix and application is five nines perfect, or unboxing means SS so they don't paint, only wrap.

 

[Paul_SF]

OK - the person in control is ready to let Tesla run !!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1752358277541757137

this is concerning tbh..... this crooks are not to be trusted with anything they say....

 

[2daMoon]

So you are saying that the unboxed process is made possible because they have already solved the paint-matching problem?

That would make sense. Is that your conclusion?

I think the idea is to paint all the panels for each vehicle simultaneously for color matching, then bring them all together for Unboxed assembly.

Another advantage I recall is how this will require a much smaller foot print for the paint shop because of the smaller width of these panels compared to the width of a body in white.

Wasn't this all included in the presentation when the unboxed process was revealed?

 

[mongo]

So you are saying that the unboxed process is made possible because they have already solved the paint-matching problem?

That would make sense. Is that your conclusion?

Unboxed doesn't require multu-unit paint-matching. They could paint the panels and door at the same time and track them afterwards to feed to final assembly so they reunite on the same vehicle. However, that is more of a logistics pain.
Early 2020 Model Y in Pearl White showed signs that Tesla was not tracking simultaneously painted pieces.

Unboxing does require a frame attachment/ bonding system that can be done without damaging already installed paint and accessories.

 

[capster]

I am only joking! Believe it or not, the double digit percentage drop was not big. The 50DMA (blue) still sits in between the 100DMA (purple) and the 200DMA(orange). The moving averages continue to converge on all timeframes. Daily timeframe shown below. The RSI is now incredibly oversold on the daily and weekly (not shown). If I was a betting man (and I am) the move that's coming quite soon would be...UP. Yeah, yeah, I know. Technical analysis is like reading tea leaves they say. To each their own. View attachment 1013470

Out of curiosity, do people here think TSLA short sellers use TA for guidance in some way? If not, what do they use to decide when to short and when to buy back? Like any market timers they need to time the market correctly twice.

They seem to pay only passing attention to Tesla’s fundamentals and, presumably, those on the Street ignore the vomit of FUD they themselves help give their pliant "journalists" to spew.

Obviously, it would easier to defeat them if we know what they watched, so they likely try to mask that.

Genuinely curious just how blind they’re flying.