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No offence to the guy who made the video but I couldn't get through it, it seems facile and lacking depth, just him saying stuff everyone already knows, especially his target audience. Another YouTuber who feels they need to keep generating interest by producing content even when there is nothing notable communicated.
Most of the time when I watch YouTube, I find the (Tesla related) content can fall into the following categories:-
  1. Stuff I already know because it is common knowledge, or on the public record.
  2. Speculation and rumours, which may or may not be true..
  3. Information that is poorly researched and wrong.
The exceptions where every video is worth watching are:-
  1. Limiting factor
  2. Done factory videos - particularly Joe Tegtmeyer
  3. Most videos with Larry Goldberg as a guest, especially when Larry does most of the talking and runs though his numbers
  4. TeslaDaily - Rob M - when he makes videos.
  5. James Stephenson - often entertaining and informative.
  6. Most importantly - anything from Tesla.
Other stuff can be entertaining and times and occasionally informative, but poorly researched incorrect information can be annoying.
 
Has anyone started doing modeling/thinking on the currently beginning economic collapse of China and what effect that will have on Tesla Shanghai sales in 2025/2026 if they are in a severe recession/depression by then?

What percentage are China's sales of global?

Thx
"The currently beginning economic collapse of China" - OK :p China is in line somewhere behind the USA, IMO.
 
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China is in line somewhere behind the USA.
Thanks, here's info from that Jesse's video.
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The primary difference is with L2 you have to actively be paying attention to everything as you remain the actual driver of the vehicle and, by definition, the OEDR of the vehicle is not sufficiently good to understand and respond to everything by itself, nor even to understand when it'll need help in the near future.

With L3 you can be reading a book, watching a movie, replying to email, whatever--- so long as you can, with a brief warning from the car because it's capable of knowing in advance situations it'll need help with, take back control after that brief warning period.

If this description of L3 was presented to potential buyers of FSD I bet the take rate would be dramatically higher than today. Especially if L3 was priced at a more reasonable amount, say $7,500. Then when L4/L5 is available Tesla would offer that option at an additional cost. It would also help persuade potential owners who are considering other EV car makers to pick Tesla. Financially to me it's a no brainer with the one caveat that Tesla can make the hand off a smooth transition which is easier said than done.
 
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If this description of L3 was presented to potential buyers of FSD I bet the take rate would be dramatically higher than today. Especially if L3 was priced at a more reasonable amount, say $7,500. Then when L4/L5 is available Tesla would offer that option at an additional cost. It would also help persuade potential owners who are considering other EV car makers to pick Tesla. Financially to me it's a no brainer with the one caveat that Tesla can make the hand off a smooth transition which is easier said than done.
Mercedes L3 take rate is nonexistent. L3 doesn't sell anything. People just want L5 because no one wants a bunch of criteria before something can be used. People usually justify their purchases based on fantasy usage. "I should buy this 200 dollar power tool cause what happens if I need to save money by fixing my wife's car engine one day" -said by someone with zero idea how to build an engine.

So to have high amounts of restrictions does the opposite of selling a product. The main reason why FSD take rate is so low(besides the price) is all the L2 based nags and monitoring.
 
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Tesla's Strategic Masterpiece. on Youtube | Farzad (8 min) explains how FSD software leverages low-margin hdw.


Cheers!
I think the focus on FSD is misplaced...or, at best, only part of the story. Tesla's mission, as he notes, is to accelerate the world to sustainable energy (or something like that). The goal is right there: energy. They never wanted to be the next GM, Ford, Toyota or VW. They wanted to be the next Aramco, ExxonMobil, etc.
Indeed, I've often thought the purpose of the electric cars was to simply seed the Demand side (for electricity) of the energy equation - while simultaneously reducing the need for oil.
It seems it was always a path to energy. After all, He who controls the Spice...
 
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Mercedes L3 take rate is nonexistent. L3 doesn't sell anything. People just want L5 because no one wants a bunch of criteria before something can be used. People usually justify their purchases based on fantasy usage. "I should buy this 200 dollar power tool cause what happens if I need to save money by fixing my wife's car engine one day" -said by someone with zero idea how to build an engine.

So to have high amounts of restrictions does the opposite of selling a product. The main reason why FSD take rate is so low(besides the price) is all the L2 based nags and monitoring.
Mercedes L3 has no takers because it only works in very very specific situations. If a L3 system worked for 95% of a typical driver’s needs, it would be hugely successful. We don’t have to have L5 to realize a lot of value.

Think about a system that only needed a human driver for unmarked or dirt roads or extreme weather conditions. This would technically be L3 but would function as “Full self-driving” for most people most of the time.
 
Mercedes L3 take rate is nonexistent. L3 doesn't sell anything. People just want L5 because no one wants a bunch of criteria before something can be used. People usually justify their purchases based on fantasy usage. "I should buy this 200 dollar power tool cause what happens if I need to save money by fixing my wife's car engine one day" -said by someone with zero idea how to build an engine.

So to have high amounts of restrictions does the opposite of selling a product. The main reason why FSD take rate is so low(besides the price) is all the L2 based nags and monitoring.
L3 hasn't sold anything because who offers it? And Mercedes doesn't count. Provide a solid and legitimate L3 and people will buy FSD. V12 is likely to help but even a good L2 doesn't provide the capability to watch videos, text etc. L4/L5 is a long way off where L3 could be a legitimate step towards that goal. Why does it have to be all or nothing?
 
How does a system that works in 95% of situations require “no supervision”. What happens in the 5% of situations where it fails to work?

If it fails to work while in the middle of driving, and it is not under supervision….that sounds like it leads to a somewhat suboptimal outcome. Perhaps I’m misunderstanding the definition?
What percent of the year is it snowing, icy, slushy. That alone is more than 5% for some people.

What happens then is the system states it is unable to engage, you have to drive yourself buddy.

What percentage of the year is it raining at cyclone, hurricane, hailstorm, your wipers can't keep up level of rain? Again for some places that is more than 5% of the year.

Again if the system can't drive in those conditions you park and wait it out or you drive at your own risk without FSD.

What percentage of the year are there flooded roads or standing water that the depth can't be gauged.

Again if the system can't drive in those conditions it'll let you know and it'll avoid them. You can turn around or risk your life.

I'd happily pay big bucks for a FSD system that could only handle 75% of the situations I drive in on a yearly basis. If it refuses to drive any time the ground temp is below 32F I can live with that. If it refuses to drive when it's raining cats and dogs I can live with that. The vast majority of my driving is on dry pavement and if it can handle 99.9% of the dry pavement driving and even half of the wet pavement driving I do* I'd put up with 0% capability for some pretty large categories of weather.

* I live on the edge of a rain forest in the Southern US, we get storms here that can be strong enough I won't drive in them. We get flash flooding that make not just parts of roads impassible, entire neighborhoods or maybe even the whole town could be immobilized. But stuff like that is an exception, it doesn't happen every year, let alone every season, month, week, or day.


Do you really expect FSD cars to handle road conditions I won't deal with myself?
 
This is a tough L for you
This is the chart between the time that filing came out and just after market opened today.
Screenshot_20240215_203800_TradingView.jpg

This is other EV stocks today
Screenshot_20240215_203910.jpg
This is my trading plan for this week posted on Tuesday
I've already said what my plan was. Called the pivot. Called the pullback. It went deeper than I thought but I didn't see SPY coming down to 490 today either so there's that. If it breaks the previous low then back to the drawing board but for now I'm just going to wait for the 2nd leg up before selling new CCs. Also provided the timeframe for which the 207 gap gets filled (after next week).

Nothing new today worth mentioning. Most days I go on here and really get nothing beneficial for my decision making so I stick to my trading group.
So it faded all the way from 195 to 189 before a sector wide rotation picked it up. Meanwhile, I have been predicting this leg up before all this.
 
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