Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Richard007]

NVDA and SMCI are actually relatively cheap relative to the current earnings and earnings growth. The question comes down to how much do you believe they will continue to grow before competition comes and compresses margins. NVDA seems highly confident in their demand over the rest of the year, I think it will hit near $1000 before it may come down (if competition comes soon).

Mentioning Dojo is a joke. There is no volume production of Dojo yet, who knows when that will happen. Based on Musk's latest comments, it doesn't sound that bullish on it this year. It will have no effect on NVDA.

Meanwhile TSLA is stuck in the doldrums. No earnings growth, and no real big boosts for earnings this year unless Cybertruck can ramp to 5,000 a week. I sold all my calls when it came back up to near $200 on Wednesday and luckily bought an actually winning stock - NVDA.

I'll buy back into TSLA if/when it goes down to $150.

Good luck - it may hit $150 and it may not. In 2025, 2026, 2027 - that is a few years out - $150 or $190 entry price seems like a nominal difference. Why risk missing the ride?

As an investor, I like to hold and not worry up the downs and the upas long the way.

Nonetheless, best of luck to you mate.

 

[Tim S]

What company are you referring to?

LUNR (Intuitive Machines)

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1760814277307302338

Chat here (definitely for my supercap special...):
Tesla Home Wireless Charger


Also:
Project Dojo - the SaaS Product? NVDA competition or no?

Need for Tesla Advertising / PR Possible Tesla supercharger ad in the works featuring a Ford?

The demise of the OEMs Elon agrees that their future is dire

4680 cell design, chassis integration & factory discussion for investors Additional battery manufacturing now moving to Austin suburbs

Vehicle ramp discussion *NEW thread* James Cat at 2k CT deliveries in Q1

https://twitter.com/x/status/1760865362814619986

 

[Dutchie]

The difference between NVIDIA and Tesla in my opinion:

The issue with NVIDIA is that I really don't know what they will be doing in five years time - financially speaking. I can reasonably foresee what their financials will be next year, but longer than that?

With Tesla, on the other hand, I know what they are working on and I can reasonably foresee where they will stand in five years time.

 

[Zaddy Daddy]

You don't like TSLA. We get it. Yet, you love to come to this site and bash the stock and praise other stocks. Thankfully, I had faith in TSLA an am currently paying for my 2 daughters' college education with TSLA stock gains.

I love Tesla, and loved TSLA 2017 - 2021. I still like TSLA but I'm more careful. It's a tradeoff with possibly less gains than holding, but better handles flat periods. I'm not seeing any obvious catalysts to rocket the stock into the $300s for good this year. As with NVDA, market needs to be slapped in the face with earnings to start reacting to it.

Good luck - it may hit $150 and it may not. In 2025, 2026, 2027 - that is a few years out - $150 or $190 entry price seems like a nominal difference. Why risk missing the ride?

As an investor, I like to hold and not worry up the downs and the upas long the way.

Nonetheless, best of luck to you mate.

The future is uncertain IMO. Based on my calcs, a lot of Tesla's automotive and energy sectors' growth is priced into the stock. 5 million cars and hundreds of GWh in energy products with an operating margin in the low teens can be a big success but still give you a market cap around 600 billion.

What isn't priced in is FSD robotaxis and Optimus, and other AI efforts. Having some expertise in the area, I am mostly focused on this area but also realize big earnings generated from it is still years away. In the meantime, I expect the stock to fluctuate, so I'll buy only when there is a big dip, and maybe sell on a decent rise.

I'm pretty sure I (and all of you) will realize when those AI products are truly coming with high confidence before the market will. If the share price is $250 and not $200, I'm fine with missing that extra gain for reduced risk, and then still enjoy the ride higher.

 

[MC3OZ]

The future is uncertain IMO.

I'm not seeing any obvious catalysts to rocket the stock into the $300s for good this year.

If they were obvious, then the future would not be uncertain,,,

I'm not saying that you are necessarily wrong, just that I am not 100% certain that you are right...

 

[NicoV]

The inventory discounts to make the base Model Y qualify for the Flemish 2024 EV subsidies are gone. Most of the subsidy budget was already gone anyway, with some uncertain government messaging about wether the budget would be increased or not.
There was much ado about those subsidies, first because there were legal issues with the law and then because the portal to apply for the subsidy wasn't ready, and ultimately the subsidy was limited to 2024 because of lack of budget. Al voor zowat 15 miljoen euro premies elektrische wagens aangevraagd | De Standaard
Note that these subsidies are for private persons and unrelated to the company car tax rules that practically require company cars to be EVs.
Given that most of the subsidies went to new car purchases, it's clear that a somewhat lower price is sufficient to make private persons make the switch to EVs.

 

[cliff harris]

Stock price catalysts, practically by definition, are things you cannot see coming. If you could, it would already be priced in.
I do think FSD is under appreciated. FSD12 videos are looking very, very good. People think FSD is a binary thing robotaxi/useless. NOT TRUE.
The take-rate of FSD will rocket up the minute FSD is released to all, not just in the US. Anyone with a boring or long commute will want a car that can do what FSD12 does now, even if it means they may have to take over in unusual circumstances or weather, and remain liable.

BTW the cybertruck ramp seems to be going very, very well. For all the doom-and-gloom about the ramp, it does actually look a bit like sandbagging. It will be very interesting to see if Tesla release cybertruck specific numbers in the Q1 production report. And even if not, its bound to be question #1 for Q1 earnings.
Every indication is that Teslas entry into the truck segment is going super well. The first NEW segment in autos the car has entered for a very long time.
Things look pretty good to me. The SP will catch up.

 

[hobbes]

V12 really is different - speed bumps, U-turns and now this (even visualized if you look closely):

https://twitter.com/x/status/1760841783708418094

Also handles driving through tight construction amazingly:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1760803985987153995

Residential road with oncoming cars, almost seems like someone is controlling the car remotely (watch till the end):

https://twitter.com/x/status/1760543855315923113

 

[lascavarian]

Stock price catalysts, practically by definition, are things you cannot see coming. If you could, it would already be priced in.

I see the market excited about delivered results right now but part of the market is also looking 6 months or so into the future.

Mindful that rates are likely at the top, 6 months from now the mood of the market will be in anticipation of coming rate cuts. This will goose stocks like TSLA.

In the 6 months before us, changes will be made to model features, production will be continually improved and mood overall will be one of anticipation. Continued supply chain improvements will improve margins.

Anticipation of easier money, fresh politics and some refreshed features or colors will bring plump up the demand going into the Fall.

I think sales will rise nicely as rates begin to fall and the 3rd and 4th quarter will benefit from the passage of certain issues downstream as water over the damn.

I can't be the only one feeling this is just a waiting game at this point. Enjoy the Spring and enjoy the spring.

 

[CitizenKane]

The difference between NVIDIA and Tesla in my opinion:

The issue with NVIDIA is that I really don't know what they will be doing in five years time - financially speaking. I can reasonably foresee what their financials will be next year, but longer than that?

With Tesla, on the other hand, I know what they are working on and I can reasonably foresee where they will stand in five years time.

Really? Are you one of the extremely few that foresee we would end up here a couple of years ago? I do not recall reading many predictions of how demand would be low due to macro and Tesla would counter that with a long series of price reductions. If you did not, what makes you confident the future is more easily predicted now?

 

[2daMoon]

I love Tesla, and loved TSLA 2017 - 2021. I still like TSLA but I'm more careful. It's a tradeoff with possibly less gains than holding, but better handles flat periods. I'm not seeing any obvious catalysts to rocket the stock into the $300s for good this year. As with NVDA, market needs to be slapped in the face with earnings to start reacting to it.



The future is uncertain IMO. Based on my calcs, a lot of Tesla's automotive and energy sectors' growth is priced into the stock. 5 million cars and hundreds of GWh in energy products with an operating margin in the low teens can be a big success but still give you a market cap around 600 billion.

What isn't priced in is FSD robotaxis and Optimus, and other AI efforts. Having some expertise in the area, I am mostly focused on this area but also realize big earnings generated from it is still years away. In the meantime, I expect the stock to fluctuate, so I'll buy only when there is a big dip, and maybe sell on a decent rise.

I'm pretty sure I (and all of you) will realize when those AI products are truly coming with high confidence before the market will. If the share price is $250 and not $200, I'm fine with missing that extra gain for reduced risk, and then still enjoy the ride higher.

This really sounds like a "trading strategy" which exemplifies what Buffett has said about how,

"The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient."

...another quote that might be appropriate,

“Forecasts may tell you a great deal about the forecaster; they tell you nothing about the future.”


Your post supports how a short-term "trader" reacts to FOMO. Which in and of itself is fine. For you. Obviously.

However, in an "investor's" forum it may be considered off topic. This is why you get push-back so often.

What percentage in capital gains tax was paid to cover the sale of TSLA in order to fund an NVDA purchase? This has to be made back before you break even, right? Once all the math is done to cover the costs of short-term trading, within what time period do you expect to profit at a greater rate than HODLing TSLA would generate? Are you looking at months or years for the payback?

Do you ever look backward and measure what the difference was had you held instead, in order to confirm that trading made you more over a time period measured in multiple years?

Is there a "traders forum" where you may speak among like-minded folks who hold a similar preference for making trades based upon the psychological pressures exerted upon them by the impatience that comes with a short term outlook?

 

[FastEddieB]

stock is doing exactly what it should be doing.

Which is kinda what stocks do.

 

[Tony73]

Stock price catalysts, practically by definition, are things you cannot see coming. If you could, it would already be priced in.
I do think FSD is under appreciated. FSD12 videos are looking very, very good. People think FSD is a binary thing robotaxi/useless. NOT TRUE.
The take-rate of FSD will rocket up the minute FSD is released to all, not just in the US. Anyone with a boring or long commute will want a car that can do what FSD12 does now, even if it means they may have to take over in unusual circumstances or weather, and remain liable.

BTW the cybertruck ramp seems to be going very, very well. For all the doom-and-gloom about the ramp, it does actually look a bit like sandbagging. It will be very interesting to see if Tesla release cybertruck specific numbers in the Q1 production report. And even if not, its bound to be question #1 for Q1 earnings.
Every indication is that Teslas entry into the truck segment is going super well. The first NEW segment in autos the car has entered for a very long time.
Things look pretty good to me. The SP will catch up.

FSD has the power to spark Tesla’s chat GPT moment when it comes out of beta and shows a meaningful inflection in take rate.
That is what makes Tesla a tech company in the eyes of Wall Street.
I don’t see how Tesla breaks $300 otherwise.

 

[GhostSkater]

Bunch of clowns, hope all those media outlets that only click bait all the time go down the drain

And this was without the wheel covers

edit: and more, this is with AT tires, which EPA is 320 miles, so it beat EPA by 14 miles and the headline is completely wrong

 

[Usain]

FSD has the power to spark Tesla’s chat GPT moment when it comes out of beta and shows a meaningful inflection in take rate.
That is what makes Tesla a tech company in the eyes of Wall Street.
I don’t see how Tesla breaks $300 otherwise.

I don't think the take rate goes up much until you can take a nap. Geofenced robotaxi comes first. That will be the catalyst.

You need near zero disengagement for both. That's easier to accomplish in a geofenced area.

 

[aubreymcfato]

I don't think the take rate goes up much until you can take a nap. Geofenced robotaxi comes first. That will be the catalyst.

You need near zero disengagement for both. That's easier to accomplish in a geofenced area.

Do we know the percentage of FSD on the total Tesla cars in US?
Even a 1% rate - globally - would amount to hundreds million dollars in almost pure profit.

 

[FireMedic]

I don't think the take rate goes up much until you can take a nap. Geofenced robotaxi comes first. That will be the catalyst.

You need near zero disengagement for both. That's easier to accomplish in a geofenced area.

That’s not my experience. When 11.X became available to all; I subscribed for 2 separate road trips.

I think we all agree that pricing may be unnecessarily high for FSD in part to limit participation.

When V12.X or 13 etc. is more reliable and available everywhere, I’d expect the price could come down and/or pricing model changes to allow a higher take rate.

I don’t need to be able to sleep in the car to get value. I have 2 new drivers and an aging parent in my household; crash avoidance is top of mind for me.

 

[Drax7]

FSD is getting very impressive.
The speed of improvement is accelerating and we may get a aha moment.

It’s already a capable assistant, certainly lowering mind share required
While driving thus minimizing risk, as it errs on the side of safety.

 

[AndrewZ]

FSD pricing was slightly more sensical when the car prices were much higher, but Model Y is being advertised at <$32k right now and I doubt many people shopping in that range are considering software options that are a third of the vehicle price lol

Then again I don’t see what real value there is in a city streets cruise control that requires hands on the wheel and eyes glued forward, this stuff makes more sense for long boring highway drives but going to the grocery store? Ehh