Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Drumheller]

My cousin, who started his career working on semi trucks and then moved onto locomotives, just bought his first Tesla. The picture he shared with the Model Y shows his Tesla grin and Smith & Wesson t-shirt.

He is not concerned with politics or Elon's tweets. My cousin experienced my Model Y last year on a trip to the Grand Canyon and became very interested.

One more anecdote for the pile.

 

[MC3OZ]

I don't know about that. BMW will probably have the Figure 01 working the line before Tesla does with Optimus from the looks of things.

I am not sure first is the key criteria.

First to significantly reduce the cost of making a car is the right criteria.

Then the question is how many robots, and how much do they save?

 

[GhostSkater]

A very informative article by Warren Relich

Didn't know it was possible to have both of these in the same sentence

 

[GSP]

Given the fuel and maintenance savings, can the Semi be competitive even if it has a shorter service life?
ICE: $0.50/mile (8 MPG, $4.00 gal)
EV: $0.33/mile (2kWh/ mile @ $16.5 kWh)
$0.17/mile savings
500k miles * 0.17 = $85k
500k/20k oil change * $200 = $5k
$90k savings at 500k
In frame rebuild: $15k
$105k savings per additional 500k
$195k savings at 1 million miles
$405k saved at 2 million miles (3 rebuilds)

Wear items:
1MWh pack < $100k
Three motors < $20k

How competitive the Semi will be depends largely on pricing. I haven't seen any pricing info since shortly after the 2017 reveal event, when Tesla execs hinted $180k for the 500-mile version. That is about what it takes to be competitive with diesel, in my estimation. However $180k / 900 kWh is only $200/kWh for the whole truck, not just the battery. Tough for Tesla to make a profit at that pricing, so I expect it will be higher when production starts in 2025.

GSP

 

[SOULPEDL]

I don't know about that. BMW will probably have the Figure 01 working the line before Tesla does with Optimus from the looks of things.

The hands with Optimus are a big deal for me, in line with their humanoid strategy vs some bulky clamp prototype that looks like it's machined out of Acetal. I don't think there's a glove on earth that could fit Figure 01's hand, maybe a cooking mitt is all. Sure they will improve it like Tesla did with Gen 2, but then we have a race for a production product that sure reminds me of what I see in the Automotive Industry with the "competition."

Throw in Tesla's Network Occupancy Technology created from years of research on FSD, a CEO that helped launch OpenAI from the start, experience in batteries, motors, efficiencies, and massive GigaFactory experience world-wide, I have no doubt in Tesla's dominance with the Humanoids as well.

 

[SmokyPeat]

The hands with Optimus are a big deal for me, in line with their humanoid strategy vs some bulky clamp prototype that looks like it's machined out of Acetyl. I don't think there's a glove on earth that could fit Figure 01's hand, maybe a cooking mitt is all. Sure they we improve it like Tesla did with Gen 2, but then we have a race for a production product that sure reminds me of what I see in the Automotive Industry with the "competition."

Throw in Tesla's Network Occupancy Technology created from years of research on FSD, a CEO that helped launch OpenAI from the start, experience in batteries, motors, efficiencies, and massive GigaFactory experience world-wide, I have no doubt in Tesla's dominance with the Humanoids as well.

View attachment 1022365

I'm not sure how you'd go about machining hands out of acetyl, but that would be quite a feat. Acrylic, perhaps? I certainly hope Optimus does well. I have a significant portion of my net worth invested in Tesla, not Figure AI. I actually think the attention that Figure is attracting with their bot will benefit Tesla stock immensely.

 

[ggr]

Also 26:24 - "We will soon see an Armada of Cybertrucks" - so boat mode confirmed..

Don't forget... the Armada sank.

 

[2daMoon]

The company that has all the supply chain lined up, machines built to build parts that doesn't exist, and has an assembly line that can churn these by the hundreds of thousands while pricing it at something affordable with a 25%+ gross margin. Prototypes are easy...

The good thing about having Figure in the running is that potential customers won't be choosing whether or not to get a bot, instead, they'll be deciding on which bot to get.

Tesla Optimus, the machine that builds itself.

 

[Artful Dodger]

How competitive the Semi will be depends largely on pricing. I haven't seen any pricing info since shortly after the 2017 reveal event, when Tesla execs hinted $180k for the 500-mile version. That is about what it takes to be competitive with diesel, in my estimation. However $180k / 900 kWh is only $200/kWh for the whole truck, not just the battery. Tough for Tesla to make a profit at that pricing, so I expect it will be higher when production starts in 2025.

There are large incentives available for heavy over-the-road semis and for port tractors:

On-Road Heavy-Duty Voucher Incentive Program | ww2.arb.ca.gov
Tractor - Hybrid and Zero-Emission Truck and Bus Voucher | californiahvip.org

California doubles electric truck rebates for small fleets

Small fleets can get a voucher twice the standard $120,000 when purchasing an electric truck. And they don't even have to purchase it.

www.freightwaves.com

 

[Tony73]

I think the likely future is that BYD will dominate the cheap EV segment and become to Android of EV, while Tesla takes the mid-to-high price segment like Apple does with the iPhone. Tesla will be making more profit per car, but BYD has the volume to make up for lower margin.

Mod: Deleted political comment from this post. This is a reminder that politics is the #1 banned topic in this thread, and in the forum generally. --ggr

The word “cheap” shows a certain bias. The Qin is a great value. Affordable not “cheap”

 

[Tony73]

BYD is not making money on these. They are being that China Wok #1 which killed the pricing power of Chinese food vs any other cuisine type, now being cheaper than MCD.

Hence this is why they are not interested in the US market most likely because people here are not interested in slow low quality cars.

BYD is not interested in United States' EV market: Exec. VP

BYD Auto (BYDDY, 1211.HK) recently showcased its new, all-electric supercar — the Yangwang U9 — which will cost more than $230,000. The Chinese automaker has recently begun to catch up, and even surpassed, EV giant Tesla (TSLA) as the world's biggest manufacturer of EVs. However, the company has...

finance.yahoo.com

BYD cars are not poor quality. They are a remarkable value for the price.

 

[Singuy]

Their under 20k cars are poor quality from multiple sources who use or been in them. Byd didn't magically discovered how to make a bmw quality car for 15k.

 

[Robertj]

Didn't know it was possible to have both of these in the same sentence

I am not a follower of this guy “ Redlich “, but his commentary concerning the past results of management are worth viewing before
Investing in this company

I note on twitter Brett … has blocked Relich

 

[Artful Dodger]

Now it's time for a quiz.

Why did TSLA lose close to 3% on Friday, only to gain close to 4% on Monday?

One more thing changed between Friday and Monday: TSLA's weight in the S&P 500 dropped out of the top ten ranking for the 1st time since Inclusion Day (Dec 18, 2020).

Monday's 'spontaneous' rebound will see them back in 10th place tomorrow when the rankings are updated (around 9:00 am ET).

I think somewon was buying TSLA (on the cheep).

Cheers to the Longs!

 

[Tony73]

Their under 20k cars are poor quality from multiple sources who use or been in them. Byd didn't magically discovered how to make a bmw quality car for 15k.

You can buy a Corolla for well under $20k in China and it is not poor quality. That is nothing impossible about that price point.
As battery prices have plunged, BYD can afford to spend more on the rest of the car as evidenced by the quality of interior materials in the qin. They are not static. It is incredibly arrogant to think only Tesla can improve. Also keep in mind that BYD is the most vertically integrated EV maker in the world.
The latest Qin is an incredible value. That is the competitive environment in which Tesla must compete in China. Tesla has a premium brand and is considered aspirational so they have a pricing advantage. But anyone calling BYD’s latest generation of cars “cheap” is deluded.

BYD has had its reliability problems but those issues appear to have mostly been resolved.

 

[insaneoctane]

BYD cars are not poor quality. They are a remarkable value for the price.

Honestly, this latest BYD Qin Plus has had me digging a little bit more into BYD and their offerings to better understand my TSLA investment. While BYD is definitely moving up stream, there must be quality and material consequences to offering a $15K BEV. I watched this video and found it quite illuminating. Interesting to me because it's a European take (including Superchargers), seemed unbiased (to me), and I learned a bit about BYD's Seal and ID.7

My big takeaway re: BYD was that even the £45.7k Seal was short on quality and materials. This BEV costs 2x or 3x the Qin plus.

I do wonder what the margins on these BYD BEVs will turn out to be. I suspect about zero as BYD tries to capture market share, but I am sure someone here has better analysis than me on this subject.

 

[Takumi]

Their under 20k cars are poor quality from multiple sources who use or been in them. Byd didn't magically discovered how to make a bmw quality car for 15k.

So are you saying they're better?

Can BMW make a car of this quality or better at that price? Can BYD make a car of BMW quality or better at BMW's price? From what I've been watching/reading, the Chinese are done copying Legacy and now consider themselves ahead of them. The Chinese are fast followers. What happens when the lead stumbles?

Many think Tesla will be selling their parts and services to other manufacturers sometime in the future. BYD already sells to Tesla...

 

[cliff harris]

Acceleration being lacking on the cheap BYD isn't just a boy-racer concern. One of the best things about my Y performance is that hills just *don't exist* as far as driving it is concerned. This is not the case with our older hybrid lexus, that sounds like its drilling into the earths core if it goes up a 1:10 gradient.
If you literally only ever use a car to nip around the flat city in which you live, then fine. But I think most people would prefer a car that can actually get to the top of a hill!

 

[aubreymcfato]

As a runabout town, second car that would be excellent...

I agree, but let me take issue with the concept of "second car"...
My personal experience is that my EV (a Zoe, which has some specs not that much superior than the Qin, albeit probably a more premium car overall) did very well 95% of the trips in a year, and about 90% of the km.
What I mean is that I discriminate between
"the first car is the car that can do all the trips I want to do" (so a proper ICE-substitute)
and
"the first car is the one I use the most".

Everytime I want to do a family trip I use my ICE car: I don't have enough space in the Zoe anyway. My first car is my EV, because is the first car I use, and I use it all the time I can, and don't use it when it's not possible or too much inconvenient.
I think this is an important distinction to make, and I'm happy to say it actually convinced a few people switching to EVs. They don't really want to pay a lot of money for a "second" car, but this distinction - made from experience - helps them understand better their needs.

Given that, and given that European driving culture is different from US culture, I bet there is still a potential market of millions of drivers that could do very well with a Qin (to reply to @Krugerrand too): I found this chart with a quick Google search but it gives you the idea of the type of cars most sold in EU:

2022 (Full Year) Europe: Top 50 Best-Selling Car Models - Car Sales Statistics

 

[Usain]

From what has been made public knowledge, it almost seems to me like Figure AI might be ahead of Tesla Optimus with regards to the AI, but Optimus is ahead with regards to the hardware. Optimus might be doing more practical work than we've been shown, that's a possibility.

It is pretty clear both Tesla and Figure AI are close to each other in progress though, and both are improving very quickly. When it comes time to manufacture the humanoids Tesla will have a massive advantage over everyone else. Thankfully this new humanoid market will have room for many manufacturers, as once the ball starts rolling the demand will be unlimited for a very long time.

I agree completely.

And Figure AI will have another problem. The money pouring in to Figure is both a blessing and a curse. As soon as there is a liquidity event, they will have a lot of engineers who call in rich. It's really hard to manage explosive growth.