I would hesitate getting too caught up in year on year comparisons, when Q1 looks like it could be flat or even down sequentially from Q4.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Sooo don't look at year over year...but do look at quarter over quarter??
I would hesitate getting too caught up in quarter over quarter comparisons, especially Q1 v Q4. As we here all know (or at least we all SHOULD know), Q4 is always the strongest quarter of the year, and Q1 is always the weakest.
One has to wonder whether you are being obtuse or purposely disingenuous with your care-bear comment. You seem like a well-informed person, so......
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Add this to the $229million in fees sought by legal teams after the lawsuit against Tesla Directors for overpaying themselves
GhostSkater
Member
Car of they year doing pretty well, being the second worst range lol
Model 3 most efficient and second on longest range
Model 3 most efficient and second on longest range
GhostSkater
Member
Cybertruck User and Service Manual now live
Krugerrand
Meow
Yeah, not actually funny. Brazen crooks right there. That they think for a second that they should be allowed to become TSLA shareholders is gobsmacking. So they can what? Be allowed to vote those shares and quite possibly decide the direction the company is taken in? Decide who sits on the board? Decide how the man that willed the company into profitability should be paid? Can we not smell the hostile takeover type approach? First overturn an 80% shareholder vote, then become a major shareholder.
No, effin’ thank you.
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
Huh? YoY comparisons exist because of seasonal variability, which is a real thing in the auto industry. This is not unique to Tesla.
Have quarterly delivery numbers increased because of seasonality or because there were constantly new factories continuing to ramp throughout recent years?
This is bringing up some interesting thoughts about the delivery number dynamics this year, because hitting 2m deliveries in 2024 will require averaging > Q4 deliveries (485k) starting in Q1. So if numbers come in lower at the front end, deliveries will need to be much more aggressive in subsequent quarters. Production capacity was already north of 2.2m vehicles as of the Q4 shareholder deck so the capacity is there, but it begs asking what pressure there may be on pricing if even more vehicles need to move later in the year to make up for lower numbers in Q1-Q2.
DFibRL8R
Active Member
I enjoyed reading the brief section on paint:Cybertruck User and Service Manual now live
So i want Elon paid and to stick around. And these lawyers think they did us a favor??? And want $6B in stock with no sales restrictions?
I have no doubt the judge will give it to them.
Then what?
Krugerrand
Meow
The fox will be in the hen house is what.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Not if you consider this year is post-wave and 2023 was not.
Jan and Feb are higher in 24 than 23 because in 2023 only 1/3rd of all EU deliveries happened in Jan/Feb-- the other 2/3rds came with the wave in march. That isn't going to be the case this year as they no longer heavily back-load quarterly deliveries.
Dikkie Dik
If gets hard, use hammer
Troy seems to imply that instead of backloading they’re now frontloading the quarter. In reality nobody knows what march is gonna be like except Tesla of course.
Few things though: there are still five boats underway with presumably new Model 3’s which is quite successful here:
Secondly Berlin has been closed for two weeks and seems to be hitting new highs after reopening, possibly because there are six Gigapresses operational now, together with other line improvements:
So, as I said, so far so good and just wait and see what march is going to bring us.
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Knightshade
Well-Known Member
No, he's not.
He's implying they've smoothed out the wave.
And by implying I mean directly posting explicit evidence of that in the chart provided.
In Q1 2023 only ~ 1/3rd of cars came in months 1+2, with 2/3rds of them coming in month 3. Only 35% of the cars were delivered in the first about 67% of the days.
By Q3 and Q4 nearly 2/3rds of cars for the quarter were being delivered in the first 2/3rds OF the quarter.... nearly 60% of cars were delivered in about 67% of the days. Neither significantly front NOR backloaded (well very very slightly backloaded but massively less than previous quarters going back years).
Thus Q1 total in 2024, given that pattern, is going to be lower in total than in Q1 2023 because there's no longer that massive backload for month 3 compared to 2023- instead cars were delivered roughly evenly each month.
Berlin up to now hadn't seen enough EU demand to even max out the 250k the existing shifts were capable of-- so where would they magically find buyers for a hugely larger # of produced cars?
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That is even a non issue. Tesla doesn’t know my credit card number so they cannot charge me anything.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
IIRC if you have unpaid supercharging fees they turn off access to superchargers until you provide a payment on file method, so you could dodge those fees ONCE I suppose as long as you never need to charge again.
Dikkie Dik
If gets hard, use hammer
Berlin also exports to other markets, Turkey, the Middle East and Taiwan. There are also still some Y imported from Shanghai in EU.
But regarding Europe Q1, it’s just too early imo.
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