Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[GhostSkater]

What is "Target Current" in that graph?

Current the truck is requesting from the charger, not always a charger can and will deliver what a vehicle request

It’s useful in this case to see if Cybertruck had more to give than what that charger could do, which is not the case

 

[Maarten]

Does the EU have a treaty that prevents a tariff on imported Chinese cars?

At the moment the import tariff for Chinese cars is 10%.
EU has since last year been investigating the subsidising by the Chinese of their cars.
That study has ended these days and if the information that I read is correct, the outcome is that subsidising is and has been indeed the case.
It’s now up to the EU to determine what measures will be taken.
In preparation registering of into the EU imported Chinese cars (past(!) and present) is being carried out.

 

[phantasms]

If you can't talk about it here, why bother to allude to it at all?

Are you starving for attention?

Ugh no.

BUT if you have an investment in TSLA it’s absolutely something to take note of. Enjoy the ride to the moon.

 

[Krugerrand]

I believe a lot of long term holders will be throwing in the towel today, finally.

I believe that you have no idea what you’re talking about. But hey, define ‘a lot’ for us. What percentage of long term holders are throwing in the towel today?


Let me make a short list of what this long term holder has held through. Excuse any incorrect order of events. It’s been 12 years so my memory isn’t always on its game.

• Model S was vaporware
• 3 top executives left/got fired
• The first Model S caught on fire
• Broder ran out of charge 5 yards from a SuperCharger and announced it to the world
• 83,000 more disasters
• 20B was the ‘estimated’ cost for a battery factory - oh, the jokers!
• Brexit 50% haircut event - how much did your options make you those two days?
• Brexit 100% hair replacement event - how much you make on the way back up just a week later?
• More C-suites out the door like Blankenship, Jerome, Field, eventually JB
• That one Q1, you know the one I’m talking about because you made fistfuls of dough
• All the county meetings, the courtroom dealings surrounding opening showrooms in various states that didn’t go so well - those were the days, huh? Tesla couldn’t even participate in the big Michigan car show back then. Against the law. Imagine that money making opportunity. Oh, wait. You were there. Good play.
• Solar City, woohoo! A lot of us banked money on that event
• Production Hell and the 9 circles, the latter seeming to be perpetual
• Investor Day 1 - that landed on deaf ears just as you knew it would
• 83,000 more critics, criticisms, and disasters - isn’t Tesla bankrupt yet?
• Layoffs - was it twice or thrice?
• They’ll need a Chinese partner for that Shanghai plant, I promise you.
• The entire Covid fiasco in BOTH directions. Why aren’t you the richest man in the world by this point? Why didn’t you put all your wealth on the line in both directions instead of playing with the money in your piggybank? I mean, remember that one day where the SP dropped - help me out @Artful Dodger - was it 30%? $900-$600? or something.
• 83,000 other opportunities
• X and the subsequent dive to, what was is it? $104
• The ride back to almost $300 - how many millions did you clear on that options elevator ride?
• CT production begins and what a flop that vehicle is
• Another 83,000 opportunities in the happening

After all those events, literally hundreds I didn’t mention specifically, Tesla has been guided, structured, and positioned to withstand whatever barrage of bull the crooks and liars of the world have and will continue to throw at it. It has withstood all the macro economical upheaval, and will continue to withstand future macro economical upheaval.

Anyone who can’t see that, doesn’t understand the financials, or is subject to the opinions and whims of the crooks and liars is free to cash out.

This long term holder, however, will not be manipulated by the bandits. I will not believe the liars. I will not be pulled into the social media, political et al cesspool. And I will continue to hold my TSLA shares until such times as I require cash to live my life. So as you’re calculating the number of long term holders throwing the towel today, be sure to stroke my name off the list.

 

[SOULPEDL]

No I was here. I sold all before the Covid dip thanks to our Covid thread. Then I doubled up at the low.

How was this HODLing... like your Avatar claims? Seems there are a few definitions of what it means. But glad you're back in, lucky twice! I've seen others do this and are still waiting for a good deal (Economist, and some of my friends come to mind).

 

[GhostSkater]

Here is the first two months of 2024 sales for Brazil:
View attachment 1025119
This is from Auto Industria. BYD has come from zero a year ago, these are all imported, BYD is still completing modifications to the former huge Ford factory in Bahia. BYD says they expect 120,000 sales in Brazil this year. Oddly, the Dolphin Mini (née Seagull) is selling well, to the surprise of most observers.

In context the Fiat Uno Ciao is R$84,990 base. For those who don’t know this is the last gasp for the Uno, in production since 1983 and meets essential none of modern safety standards. The Dolphin Mini is modern, cheap to operate and meets all the modern standards, and has excellent financing. Hence it’s success is, while surprising, not quite so much as it seems. The real shock is that BYD outsold Chery, built in Brazil and with a range of models. In context, because BYD has built busses fir years in Brazil and has battery and solar production in addition to their soon-to-be-open Bahia. car factory the government is disposed to be cooperative.


Obviously, the market is ripe for Tesla, especially if they open some sort of plant, even for only raw materials to begin with. Model Y and 3 have decent potential even though the ‘Model 2’ will certainly be the volume leader.

I still remember the days 10 years ago when a Fiat Uno costed under R$20k, adjusting for inflation it would be R$37k today

And sadly we have the cheapest car at R$78k today, double the cost inflation adjusted

So while I agree that the Dolphin Mini has potential to be the new Uno (specifically if it has attachment points for ladders ), it still too much money for a entry level car

It costs 3 times as much inflation adjusted than the entry car 10 years ago

 

[scaesare]

Current the truck is requesting from the charger, not always a charger can and will deliver what a vehicle request

It’s useful in this case to see if Cybertruck had more to give than what that charger could do, which is not the case

Hmm, so it seems that actual "current" line isn't present, unless it's exactly overlayed by the "target current" line...

 

[Knightshade]

There is an Elon tweet out this morning that he will contribute to neither candidate.

FWIW the vast vast vast majority of funds in such races are not donated to the actual candidate-they go to the political party or various PACs-- just thought that was worth adding context to your post.

OTOH if Elon is losing access to his 2018 comp package, between that and the bird debt, he's not especially liquid right now to be tossing cash around anyway to anyone.


Any actual discussion of course probably belongs here:

Off topic galore

The news in joke form

teslamotorsclub.com

 

[Unpilot]

I sense a disturbance in the force....incoming care bears at any moment.

Me... I'm like this guy....ain't letting go!

Dogs Bone GIF - Dogs Bone Sharing - Discover & Share GIFs

Click to view the GIF

tenor.com

 

[Krugerrand]

Perfect timing, of course. Wish we could all trade like you.

And yet, he still hasn’t made enough money. Does he need to support a lifestyle of the rich and famous? Why isn’t he the richest man in the world by now? Has he no conviction? Is he betting and playing with mere thousands?

I mean, the Tesla, Gamestop, Bitcoin, Apple, Nividia et al rollercoaster ride over the last decade has been epic. Anyone talented in options should be sporting a bank account in the hundreds of millions at this point. No? With such great support from the likes of Jonas and Gary and the media crew signaling stock direction, what’s the problem?

 

[thx1139]

There is an Elon tweet out this morning that he will contribute to neither candidate.

Does that mean he wont give Trump a sweet heart loan to pay legal bills?

 

[Krugerrand]

Do we think Teslas own investor relations department has poor data on these topics? Is there any data elsewhere to disupte them?

Do we think Jonas actually has a comprehension level above a first grader or that he doesn’t hear what he wants to hear? Terminator question anyone?

Do we think Tesla suddenly has decided to reveal all after their Q4 ER ‘we’re not telling you anything we don’t legally have to tell you’?

I don’t know if he’ll be proven correct or not, but I’m not taking his word for it. He’s done nothing to show me he’s anything but a pawn being moved around the board by more powerful people. He’s filling space as a sacrificial lamb.

 

[OrthoSurg]

I believe a lot of long term holders will be throwing in the towel today, finally.

Capitulation is painful, couple of -7 to -10% days in a row like what we have seen on December 2022. Have we seen that lately?

 

[unk45]

I still remember the days 10 years ago when a Fiat Uno costed under R$20k, adjusting for inflation it would be R$37k today

And sadly we have the cheapest car at R$78k today, double the cost inflation adjusted

So while I agree that the Dolphin Mini has potential to be the new Uno (specifically if it has attachment points for ladders ), it still too much money for a entry level car

It costs 3 times as much inflation adjusted than the entry car 10 years ago

However, ten years ago the Uno had no airbags, crashworthiness of 1980, not very good operating economics in comparison to today and short guarantee. More than in most markets we should understand that the Uno of ten years ago was still obsolete. Both Brazil and Mexico have had a habit of keeping ancient cars in production long after obsolescence. Both have had the original VW and the Combi continuing when far more practical choice existed, but initial purchase price for those was always the lowest. The Citroën 2CV kept going in France with similar logic.

Globally cars are more expensive than they were a decade back, with rare exceptions, such as Tesla that has had better manufacturing, better logistics etc driving prices down. At the moment BYD, mostly, is joining Tesla in reducing prices, thus driving all prices lower.

We are beginning to see major changes worldwide as EU manufacturers transition to BEV. Some, like Jaguar, seem to be increasing prices while shifting products further upscale. Whatever happens we do now know that Mercedes-Benz, BMW and VAG are on the way to vastly broadened BEV options, including heavy trucks, specialty trucks, busses as well as cars.
Now we have BYD, SAIC: MG!, and numerous other Chines brands entering Europe and other global markets, with a handful establishing NA production too.

In this environment Tesla will certainly thrive, steadily losing market share and increasing sales.
The only major unknown is how quickly Tesla can enter new markets and establish new manufacturing plants, for TE and autos.

 

[hobbes]

In the mean time… BYD not waiting till their RoRo Capacity has been built.
Cars in standard size container frames, ready to be transported by containerships.
What you see here is the European car producers' nightmare.

View attachment 1024996

Do you mind sharing your source?

 

[GhostSkater]

Hmm, so it seems that actual "current" line isn't present, unless it's exactly overlayed by the "target current" line...

My quick mental math shows that the current requested is roughly in line with where the current actually is, so yeah, they didn't bother to show it because it's the same

 

[Captkerosene]

Scoble:

Tesla and the Coming Service Economy: The Robot that Brings Other Robots

Industry-wide analysis of the hottest companies and people in AI / Spatial Computing

www.unaligned.io

TLDR: Optimus is learning to drive.
Robot-as-a-service via Robotaxi.
We're going to be rich.

 

[unk45]

We could say a fair chunk of that is also "customer acquisition costs".

Expansion - premiums generally need to be below competitors to attract new customers.

Consolidation - premiums only need to be roughly equal to competitors to retain customers.

it isn't all price, but there first thing most prospective new customers do is get a quote. Very few read the detailed policy terms and conditions, and fewer compare this for different insurance polices. I've never done it, because life is too short to compare two long and very difficult to compare documents with obscure wording.

Depending on how competitors respond, Tesla could be in the expansion phase for sometime.

If competitors respond by dropping Tesla insurance premiums, that helps new car sales, and Tesla might decide to back off expansion a bit.

Finally there is "learning by doing", both in the underwriting and claims side, Tesla will gather valuable data, including on repair costs. Trying to reduce repair costs to lower claim amounts is an obvious move and a small slice of market share is probably sufficient to gather the required data.

I was once told that this "Expansion" / "Consolidation" phase even applies to bank mangers. A bank will put an "Expansion" manager in a branch for a few years and follow them up with a "Consolidation" manager. I bet the "Consolidation" managers are not had to find. Now that "Expansion" manager is off expanding the next branch. I think they are probably happy to move, because most of their achievements will be in the first 1-2 years. This was at a particular bank, I don't know if all banks use that strategy.

As a one-time 'expansion manager' tasked with opening new banks, products or markets rather than only branches , I never was in a specific country more than two years and often less. Insurance products featured also, but the development vs maturity cases differed little between banking and insurance, which are more similar than different. Banks tend to have defined payout and insurance tends to conditional payout but the fundamentals are more similar than different.

Tesla clearly understands those fundamentals. The US is more complex than most national market because US regulations are State only, not Federal. That produces different economics and basic products market by market, as well as often different legal entities in nearly each State. That complexity, among other factors, causes the development process to be long and the profitable operation to be longer than is the typical banking product.

That really means Tesla Insurance companies will be reporting quite dissimilar underwriting and operating results for some years. We should not be dismayed; this is a slow and prudent process.

 

[GhostSkater]

However, ten years ago the Uno had no airbags, crashworthiness of 1980, not very good operating economics in comparison to today and short guarantee. More than in most markets we should understand that the Uno of ten years ago was still obsolete. Both Brazil and Mexico have had a habit of keeping ancient cars in production long after obsolescence. Both have had the original VW and the Combi continuing when far more practical choice existed, but initial purchase price for those was always the lowest. The Citroën 2CV kept going in France with similar logic.

Globally cars are more expensive than they were a decade back, with rare exceptions, such as Tesla that has had better manufacturing, better logistics etc driving prices down. At the moment BYD, mostly, is joining Tesla in reducing prices, thus driving all prices lower.

We are beginning to see major changes worldwide as EU manufacturers transition to BEV. Some, like Jaguar, seem to be increasing prices while shifting products further upscale. Whatever happens we do now know that Mercedes-Benz, BMW and VAG are on the way to vastly broadened BEV options, including heavy trucks, specialty trucks, busses as well as cars.
Now we have BYD, SAIC: MG!, and numerous other Chines brands entering Europe and other global markets, with a handful establishing NA production too.

In this environment Tesla will certainly thrive, steadily losing market share and increasing sales.
The only major unknown is how quickly Tesla can enter new markets and establish new manufacturing plants, for TE and autos.

True, I was thinking about that after I posted, if you removed anything else from a Uno from those times it probably couldn't drive

I remember my parents picking a brand new one circa 2004, it was the coolest thing ever because the panel lighting was blue instead of the usual green, truly revolutionary

 

[hobbes]

Does the EU have a treaty that prevents a tariff on imported Chinese cars?

I think that default is (and should be) no tariffs, free trade. That said, the EU has been investigating whether some Chinese manufacturers have an unfair advantage through subsidies they get from their goverment and compensate that through tariffs. Thing was that (for whatever reason) the plan was to apply that tariff to all cars imported from China..

EDIT: looks like there is a 10% import tariff already as mentioned above

Just googled for the current standing of this investigation, got lucky:

According to the news agency Reuters, the EU will start customs registration of Chinese electric vehicles to impose possible retroactive tariffs. The probe will officially conclude in November. If the EU’s trade investigation then concludes that Chinese carmakers receive unfair subsidies, tariffs could be imposed from the time of registration. Moreover, the EU could impose provisional duties in July.

EU could impose retroactive tariffs on Chinese EVs | electrive.com

According to media reports, the European Commission has gathered sufficient evidence to support its claim that China subsidises its carmakers, distorting the automotive market in Europe. It will begin registering Chinese EVs in the coming days and could impose provisional tariffs as early as July.

www.electrive.com

Looks like Tesla will not be affected, which wouldn´t have made any sense from the beginning:

According to the Reuters sources, these are BYD, Geely and SAIC. Non-Chinese brands producing in China, such as Tesla, Renault and BMW, are not said to be affected.

EU investigators launch anti-dumping investigation against Chinese manufacturers | electrive.com

Investigators from the EU Commission will apparently be visiting BYD, Geely and SAIC in the coming weeks as part of the ongoing anti-dumping investigation into EV imports from China. Non-Chinese brands producing in China, such as Tesla, Renault and BMW, are not expected to be affected.

www.electrive.com