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R2 looks pretty sweet from a customer point of view, but as a company? It worries me that they haven't cut back enough, lot's of gimmicks that adds cost, two glove boxes, rearmost windows that open partially for airflow, flashlight, it's the small things that counts

R3 is similar to Cybertruck in my opinion, so weird that I like it

And also, unveiling three new products when neither is close to being available?
You think they learned from Tesla. Even Elon is using restraint on hyping new products until closer to production. This seems like a desperation attempt to change the narrative. Everyone knows Rivian is loosing money. If these debuts do not increase buyer attention or a major influx of orders, then Rivian is done.

And that brings me no joy in stating that.
 
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Well, since the original Gigafactory is powered exclusively by solar (they did this, right?) it shouldn't be too hard to install solar panels on top.
You need a LOT of room for solar power. 2 acres will give you 1.2MW, and thats 1.2MW peak at midday in June. You need maybe 8x that to be solar powered in winter in Germany. Its impossible to power a car factory purely from rooftop solar, although totally worth doing, and at least would mitigate situations like this to provide *some* power to maybe carry out minor work during a power cut.
 
Well, since the original Gigafactory is powered exclusively by solar (they did this, right?) it shouldn't be too hard to install solar panels on top.

You mean Nevada? I don´t think exclusively...

Rohan Patel reported:
• We have over 8 MW of installed solar capacity and source renewable electricity.
Would be interesting what percentage of their electricity needs they get out of that..

Solar at around 2:54:
 
You think they learned from Tesla. Even Elon is using restraint on hyping new products until closer to production. This seems like a desperation attempt to change the narrative. Everyone knows Rivian is loosing money. If these debut does not increase buyer attention or a major influx of orders, then Rivian is done.

And that brings me no joy in stating that.
Agreed, but I doubt new attention or orders will matter. I got the impression rivians problem was scaling production, not demand? If they now have even more models, then that doesnt give them much benefit from scale, unless the models re-use a lot of common components?
They really should have just got their current lineup to profitability before announcing anything else. It feels like the company might be being run with an eye on the stock price, instead of the balance sheet. That ALWAYS ends terribly.
Rivian will get bought in a fire sale sometime in the next 12 months. People buying stock now seem *adventurous* to me.
 
ok, well, whatever it takes. I don't follow the company too closely, but I like their products better than the big 3.

They definitely need more money. With what they have on the bank right now and the amount they are burning and are forecast to burn, the safe will empty before they achieve profitability on R2/R3, and even more for R2/R3 to make up for the losses of the R1 line, so they are quite far away from becoming cash positive, both on COGS and Net

The only reason they unveiled all those vehicles today is to pump (in a good way) and to be able to raise more cash soon (tm)

Their biggest mistake was engineering and selling vehicles that lose money on COGS

This doesn't mean I'm rooting for them to go under, on the contrary, I would love to park one right beside my also imaginary Cybertruck, just stating facts
 
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You think they learned from Tesla. Even Elon is using restraint on hyping new products until closer to production. This seems like a desperation attempt to change the narrative. Everyone knows Rivian is loosing money. If these debut does not increase buyer attention or a major influx of orders, then Rivian is done.

And that brings me no joy in stating that.

I've been thinking, this might Osbourne their current vehicles, R2 is basically a baby R1S, even better in some aspects

How much it will hurt Rivian if less people buy current vehicles? Or it will help? Since they lose money on every single one sold, is it better to sell less so you lose less until you can ramp your profitable vehicles? I'm not financially literate enough to answer this
 
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Agreed, but I doubt new attention or orders will matter. I got the impression rivians problem was scaling production, not demand? If they now have even more models, then that doesnt give them much benefit from scale, unless the models re-use a lot of common components?
They really should have just got their current lineup to profitability before announcing anything else. It feels like the company might be being run with an eye on the stock price, instead of the balance sheet. That ALWAYS ends terribly.
Rivian will get bought in a fire sale sometime in the next 12 months. People buying stock now seem *adventurous* to me.
They are going to make the R2 and R3 in the Georgia factory and apparently are adopting some manufactering processes from Tesla. They are using their new 4695 battery cells and will have NACS charging ports on both cars, which will both have options for over 300 miles of range and 0-60 in 3 seconds.

The R2 was always stated as Rivian's M3, although I think the R3 will be their biggest seller. It's getting to that point that's the concern. They still have $9b in cash.

I think either Rivian survives or they are purchased, but their products are well received by many as we see with reports of owners most willing to buy another Rivian over all other brands.
 
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I say let the 3 major autos collapse and put all those resources into Rivian. Tesla and Rivian to move us towards 100% all electric driving.
Rivian has shown absolutely zero talent or ability to control costs. It’s like their business dictionary does not contain the word efficiency.

Until they can prove they can actually run a business, just no.

Give anyone a never ending stream of money and they too can make a great product and lose gobs of money on it. That’s not a company that ever survives.
 
Rivian has shown absolutely zero talent or ability to control costs. It’s like their business dictionary does not contain the word efficiency.

Until they can prove they can actually run a business, just no.

Give anyone a never ending stream of money and they too can make a great product and lose gobs of money on it. That’s not a company that ever survives.
I don't think anyone can argue with this.

Seemingly great products, but *sugar* company to this point. They keep saying they are following Tesla's path, but it's a completely different market and environment when Tesla started. People are already buying EVs in bulk and they are still losing a ton of money. Yes, their interiors are very nice, but it's not hard to see why people like them when they are basically getting a $40k discount on what they are getting.
 
So far it had not been looking as if Q1 24 would be lower than Q1 23, but with Berlin down it will be interesting..

View attachment 1025594
If after the Red Sea incident and now domestic terrorism, Tesla manages to have enough inventory around to sell even just one more car than Q1 23 - omg, I will manically laugh so hard.
 
A couple of thousand pages back I discussed the profitability of FSD. Nothing has changed my opinion expressed then. Historically new safety devices like anti lock brakes or back up cameras start out costing a fortune on expensive, early adopter cars. As they are proven, their prices rapidly come down. Also, if they are truely valibule, they tend to be mandated by government. I recall BMWWanting over $800 for a back up camera. Now they are standard on the cheapest cars. Why would we think this pattern wouldn’t hold true for FSD? Has there ever been a more significant safety device? Personally, I think Tesla will be an extremely successful company in the future, but I don’t assign much emphasis on FSD contributing to that financial success beyond the first few years. The political optics compel governments to mandate such significant technology rapidly at a reasonable price.
One key difference between FSD and other things such as anti-lock brakes, back up cameras, seat belts, etc. is the difficulty in implementing the solutions. All the former were easily and quickly replicated by other companies shortly after they were introduced. Not too difficult to design a camera and screen. And once all cars have them, it's hard to justify outsized margins.

I could see the government mandating the technology be made available for public safety's sake. But Tesla doesn't hide their technology and innovations behind patents. And they are more than happy to license FSD to other manufacturers. It could be a different case if Tesla hoarded FSD as proprietary that non one else could license. But we live in a capitalist society. I don't see how regulators could mandate this to be free or very cheap. Other manufacturers are already out there trying to create similar abilities, but with hardware. Can the government mandate LIDAR to be made free or very cheap?

Also, much of the value is in the FSD data that Tesla collects. Even if competitors could reverse-engineer FSD software, it would be next to impossible for them to replicate the data. I can't see how governments could mandate that Tesla make all of the data they've collected available for all to use.
 
Rivian has shown absolutely zero talent or ability to control costs. It’s like their business dictionary does not contain the word efficiency.

Until they can prove they can actually run a business, just no.

Give anyone a never ending stream of money and they too can make a great product and lose gobs of money on it. That’s not a company that ever survives.

I don't think anyone can argue with this.

Seemingly great products, but *sugar* company to this point. They keep saying they are following Tesla's path, but it's a completely different market and environment when Tesla started. People are already buying EVs in bulk and they are still losing a ton of money. Yes, their interiors are very nice, but it's not hard to see why people like them when they are basically getting a $40k discount on what they are getting.
Well, whatever extra resources it takes. I work at a private school in Dallas and for years it was just Teslas. Now I'm seeing more and more Rivians....No GM EVs, 2 Ford Mach Es, 2 Lucid's and that's it. It's Tesla and Rivian here and I bet we have the most EVs out of all the schools surrounding us.
 
Well, whatever extra resources it takes. I work at a private school in Dallas and for years it was just Teslas. Now I'm seeing more and more Rivians....No GM EVs, 2 Ford Mach Es, 2 Lucid's and that's it. It's Tesla and Rivian here and I bet we have the most EVs out of all the schools surrounding us.
Same by me. Tons of Rivian and Tesla. Nothing else EV. I bought a bunch of shares in the low 10s. Probably stupid but was probably just as stupid as I when I did the same with TSLA when they were supposed to go bankrupt in 2018. 😂
 
You need a LOT of room for solar power. 2 acres will give you 1.2MW, and thats 1.2MW peak at midday in June. You need maybe 8x that to be solar powered in winter in Germany. Its impossible to power a car factory purely from rooftop solar, although totally worth doing, and at least would mitigate situations like this to provide *some* power to maybe carry out minor work during a power cut.
Eh, it's closer to 3 acres per MWdc for fixed tilt.

 
You need a LOT of room for solar power. 2 acres will give you 1.2MW, and thats 1.2MW peak at midday in June. You need maybe 8x that to be solar powered in winter in Germany. Its impossible to power a car factory purely from rooftop solar, although totally worth doing, and at least would mitigate situations like this to provide *some* power to maybe carry out minor work during a power cut.

 
I've counted the cell on Rivian structural pack

34 by 8 cells on each module, 3 modules, extrapolating from 4680 energy content of 86 to 95 Wh per cell, each 4695 cell should be somewhere from 102 to 113 Wh

In that config, R2 pack should be somewhere around 83 to 92 kWh, no point trying to predict efficiency since all we know is 300+ miles of range, but I wouldn't expect it to beat or even get close to Model Y efficiency since it's much boxier and higher

We can also try to speculate pack voltage, configs that are easy to do in this pack layout are 102S8P and 367 V nominal and 204S4P 734 V

I don't think they will go higher voltage since for smaller vehicles it doesn't make much sense, plus larger cells without a tabless electrode or similar charge slower (or even with tabless, looking at you Cybertruck)

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