A year or two ago Petit did a USA/Europe battery plant analysis, more thorough than what I'd done. Battery capacity will be with us to support plenty of needs if minerals are available. The 4680 capacity though seems to be 2026 at best from what I recall. Based on the issues ramping 4680 I'd be careful in modeling, I'd put some very very low expectations on output. On 4680 projections I find it helpful to go back and read about LGs and Panosonics timelines on 4680s. Turns out they were good solid estimates and in both cases I think it was 2026 before large production.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
Speculation over on the Autopilot v12 thread is that, especially after the reply from Musk, her account got a massive amount of views/attention (her clip had over 1.2M views) and something (creepy X user?) bugged her to the point where she had to remove her account from public status.
The account still exists.
Buckminster
Well-Known Member
stef
Member
That explains why premarket is down another 2% /s
That’s good I thought it was something that might relate to Tesla.
This is so painful. Anyone can guess where the bottom is? It seems that $170 will be broken soon.
Wells Fargo GUESS that what it will be £120 so if you think this is painful…….
Again with the personal attacks merely for pointing out facts. In fact, it's mostly a bunch of gibberish you seem to have made up. Very strange.
Cathie's non-TSLA track record is horrendous. Probably the worst active fund manager of the last 5-10 years. Now, does she understand Tesla better than all other fund managers? Or did she merely get lucky? A blind squirrel and such.
Again, I don't know why I have to keep saying this, I'm not disputing that Tesla did once hit a price target she called for. As myself and others have pointed out, the models Ark publishes as the basis for their price targets are absolute crap. You can't dispute it now that we have some actual results coming in for those years.
The Tesla share price may yet get to $1,500 next year like she predicted, I don't know. Your money is your money, do what you want with it, follow who you want. What the rest of us having been pointing out is that her track record outside of Tesla is bad, her models for her Tesla price targets are pure fantasy and nowhere near actual results so far, and she's not getting anywhere near the absurd returns she predicted for her funds (40% CAGR, new NASDAQ, etc.). Given all that, it's probably wise to take what she says with enough table salt to build a lithium refinery.
Given we had a back and forth yesterday where you didn't want to discuss any of it, went all "stock price bro" on me, and made up personal attacks about me (again, just very strange, but you do you), it's obvious this line of discussion isn't going anywhere. No need to continue further (imo) as I've laid out plenty of facts.
Have a good one today. Cheers.
cliff harris
Member
I read some comments from friends recently casting doubt on the popularity of the cybertruck because they had not seen one in the wild yet. The state of 'research' of the average retail investor is staggeringly bad.
This is why cynical companies pre-seed New York with their products early, hoping wall st types 'see the product everywhere'. Fortunately Tesla is not run this way...
I definitely know people who thought my model S was some weird foreign thing, and experimental, and not something anyone but me would ever risk buying. Those same people recently chatted to me over coffee when my model Y was one of 4 Tesla's just in the cafe car park. They think differently about them now...
In other words, we may look at the stock price and go 'wtf? but CT ramp is going well, FSD12 looks awesome, semi soon, juniper soon...' but the average wall st analyst doesn't look at any of this. They haven't see a real CT yet. They think FSD is never going to improve. Juniper is a bush right? I hear BYD is bigger than Tesla right?
Patience! The slow-horses at wall st will eventually notice CTs on the roads, will talk to someone who has FSD, will see the jump in model Y interest after a refresh. Eventually there will be signs of construction in Mexico, there will be bot updates, dojo updates and some production-line-built semis. I doubt we see a big jump this quarter, but like I keep repeating, the CT ramp looks pretty good. Would love CT Q1 numbers, but will HODL regardless.
This is why cynical companies pre-seed New York with their products early, hoping wall st types 'see the product everywhere'. Fortunately Tesla is not run this way...
I definitely know people who thought my model S was some weird foreign thing, and experimental, and not something anyone but me would ever risk buying. Those same people recently chatted to me over coffee when my model Y was one of 4 Tesla's just in the cafe car park. They think differently about them now...
In other words, we may look at the stock price and go 'wtf? but CT ramp is going well, FSD12 looks awesome, semi soon, juniper soon...' but the average wall st analyst doesn't look at any of this. They haven't see a real CT yet. They think FSD is never going to improve. Juniper is a bush right? I hear BYD is bigger than Tesla right?
Patience! The slow-horses at wall st will eventually notice CTs on the roads, will talk to someone who has FSD, will see the jump in model Y interest after a refresh. Eventually there will be signs of construction in Mexico, there will be bot updates, dojo updates and some production-line-built semis. I doubt we see a big jump this quarter, but like I keep repeating, the CT ramp looks pretty good. Would love CT Q1 numbers, but will HODL regardless.
Well BYD is selling more cars than Tesla. FSD has taken much much longer than anyone was led to believe. There is a time value to money, I could see Tesla moving sideways til 2026. It may be a very good buy then if it has.
The thing is when you know it’s a very good time to buy . Won’t everyone know its a very good time to buy making it a bad time to buy?
The second sentence is factually incorrect. Just in one case SRI developed Siri in their Artificial Intelligence Center and sold it to Apple for a handsome profit. As with nearly every software case, AI or not, YMMV. Some yield outstanding profits, some lose. The question usually depends on how something is ‘monetized’. Cost reduction, better operating efficiency, and many other factors can equate to ‘monetization’. By now we should know how advertising works on web-based activity, from browsing patterns, dwell time, direct purchasing data, etc. AI techniques are nearly ubiquitous in this arena and are generating positive economic results.
As usually is the case, simple generalizations are erroneous. Usually, not always.
That is why I marked ‘disagree’.
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FastEddieB
Member
Unless it meets “resistance” at 170 and turns around and goes to the moon. Or continues to “trade in a range”. Or breaks through “resistance” and continues to “test new lows”.
Am I doing this right? I think I’ve got all the bases covered.
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
Yes, selling more cars, at a fraction of Tesla's margin. So?
FSD has taken longer than anyone was led to believe? Feel free to search this forum for my post from October of 2014 (when AP1 first came out, of which my second Model S was one of the first to have any form of Autopilot) where I predicted it would take at least 10 years from that point at the very earliest. Anyone who thought it would come significantly sooner was severely underestimating the problem. And yes, that includes Elon.
Elon visited Giga Berlin today to speak to employees, production is running again. He reassured reporters who asked that the factory will be expanded to 1 million cars/year: "Yes, of course."
www-moz-de.translate.goog
Tesla Grünheide: Elon Musk besucht nach Anschlag die Gigafactory – Produktion läuft
Eine Woche nach dem Brandanschlag hat Tesla in Grünheide wieder Strom und bekommt Besuch vom Chef. Elon Musk spricht zu den Mitarbeitern. Alles Wichtige im Newsblog.
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BYD? Margins? And some potential headwinds in Europe:
EU Formally Opens Anti-Subsidies Probe Into EVs Made in China - BNN Bloomberg
The European Union has formally launched an anti-subsidies probe into electric vehicles manufactured in China, setting in motion a one-year investigation that could see provisional measures such as countervailing duties imposed in the next nine months.
www.bnnbloomberg.ca
Krugerrand
Meow
You tell us what it means for them to be selling cars at 1/2 the price. We’ve long since discussed it here and determined what it means. But clearly you think it means something bad for Tesla. We’re all ears.
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