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Since we can no longer see the FSD 12.3 video, can someone who saw it share their reaction?
My reaction was:

It did a great job for the most part. The only small area of concern was where it came to a closed turn lane which had cones and a powered arrow sign. The car did the right thing (went to the adjacent still-open turn lane) but did so after getting closer to the cones than I would have been comfortable letting it do.

Overall drive was an A as I recall, but that maneuver I'd probably grade as a C. Passing, but not confidence-inspiring. In general 12-anything is looking FAR better than anything that came before it.
 
The point, sir, that’s being purposely ignored because it doesn’t fit the narrative being pushed is that regardless of her model, she’s the only one (besides Andrea James) that got the outcome correct.

All the other ‘experts’ with their schooling, education, decades in the business etc… got the model AND outcome wrong for the past decade+.

Yet, certain people still want to cling to these erroneous methods of prediction and resultant erroneous outcomes because? Someday they might be right? It’s different this time? They’re unable to learn from past mistakes? Ego won’t let them accept they’ve been wrong for years? You can’t teach an old dog new tricks? They have an ulterior motive?

Q1 pessimistic predictions may end up being correct with the help of two vectors of terrorism and several other economic, logistic, whathaveyou factors, continued barrage of negativity and lies from media articles, well-timed downgrades etc…, most of which were entirely unknown and unpredicted. I guarantee the usual suspects won’t mention that they got the right outcome via the wrong assumptions. But when they get the outcome wrong, while someone else got it correct suddenly finger pointing and outrage that the other’s model was wrong. Please. 🙄

Sure, admittedly Cathie got the stock price right, but you also can't ignore the fact that her model was incorrect in how it detailed that prediction. In other words, she got lucky.

Andrea is a different story, she saw potential when many others (myself included back then) did not. I wish Andrea was still out in front of Tesla today.

I'm not a Cathie hater, I like her vision and I think she's very intelligent, BUT she is also often overly optimistic in her predictions too, particularly with regards to dates.

Her bear case prediction for TSLA in 2027 is currently $1400/share, expected value is $2000/share. That's four years away and it would be an 8X (bear) or an 11X (expected) from today's stock price. It will be curious to see how this prediction plays out. Personally I think it's too optimistic, but I would certainly love it if she was spot on again!!! 😁
 
More correctly, it's another voice from someone who's income depends on legacy auto.


Huh? Evercore is an independent investment banking firm (the worlds largest such) -In fact they're the one that advised Tesla on the Solar City buyout. How does their income "depend on legacy auto"?

Or is this just another "Anybody who says anything uberbulls dislike must be a legacy auto shill" thing?
 
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The entire purpose of buying an Echo is to get Alexa. Amazon uses it to spy on users and sell marketing data. How much more popular might the device be if Amazon had focused on actual AI growth with Alexa?

I believe there are companies intending to compete with Optimus. I don't believe those companies have the focus, drive, and agility of Tesla.
Did anyone say Blue Origin, when talking about Amazon vs Tesla ?
 
Sure, admittedly Cathie got the stock price right, but you also can't ignore the fact that her model was incorrect in how it detailed that prediction. In other words, she got lucky.
I can ignore it. Just as I ignore everyone else’s incorrect models. They’re all wrong. Why would I put any effort looking at models that have been wrong for the entirety of Tesla’s existence? I guess you could say so I knew what not to do.
Andrea is a different story, she saw potential when many others (myself included back then) did not. I wish Andrea was still out in front of Tesla today.
What? Cathy saw, still sees, potential where many others did not/do not. They’re not different stories. Both women were laughed at. Attempts made to discredit them. They’re exactly the same.
I'm not a Cathie hater, I like her vision and I think she's very intelligent, BUT she is also often overly optimistic in her predictions too, particularly with regards to dates.
So what? Lots of people are overly optimistic and lots of people are overly pessimistic. Cathy got the answer right. And ahead of schedule. So in the end, she was actually pessimistic.

Nobody here thought Elon had a chance in Hell to obtain all his compensation tranches - and yet, Elon and the board got it right. Also turned out they were pessimistic.
Her bear case prediction for TSLA in 2027 is currently $1400/share, expected value is $2000/share. That's four years away and it would be an 8X (bear) or an 11X (expected) from today's stock price. It will be curious to see how this prediction plays out. Personally I think it's too optimistic, but I would certainly love it if she was spot on again!!! 😁
You carry on explaining her away, calling it luck, whatever. I’ll carry on ignoring everyone who thinks they know better, but haven’t even gotten lucky enough to get part marks on the exam.
 
You carry on explaining her away, calling it luck, whatever. I’ll carry on ignoring everyone who thinks they know better, but haven’t even gotten lucky enough to get part marks on the exam.

"Explaining her away" is a rather harsh way to put it. I was simply saying she got a price target correct despite her model being incorrect. I feel that's an important distinction to keep in mind when valuing Cathie's models and price targets going forward. Doesn't mean I'm trying to belittle her, or dismiss her, or whatever, but facts are facts whether we like them or not.

Her model is still a good indicator of what we can expect TSLA to do long term down the road. It's her dates which should be taken skeptically, IMHO.
 
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It was boring... how I like it... Bullish.

I keep reading how people here on TMC think the time horizon is still years out. Are we expecting Steve McQueen driving skills here?

I fully expect a pilot service (or a driverless or supervisor-less rollout) happens this year at minimum. Folks can't stomach my max est. (Bolt can, but he's about the only one here. I attribute the pessimism to sour grapes and Charlie Brown effect.)
 
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Do we know BYD margins on BEV only? No.

Not likely anyway, or we'd be comparing them all day long. But at $15K, no way they have margins to speak of. The debate is more about whether BYD is being subsidized, which could be just a cheap shot stemming from denial, but show me the numbers! Hybrids are easy on battery costs so expecting way better margins there. That's more about Japan's issue at the moment.
I believe BYD does not break anything out. I.e., BEV, NEV(plug-in hybrids,) Buses, forklifts etc., are all lumped together. If they are price competitive with Tesla on BEV, I'll bet the remainder of their offerings are subsidizing them to do so.
 
It was boring... how I like it... Bullish.

I keep reading how people here on TMC think the time horizon is still years out. Are we expecting Steve McQueen driving skills here?

I fully expect a pilot service (or a driverless or supervisor-less rollout) happens this year at minimum. Folks can't stomach my max est. (Bolt can, but he's about the only one here. I attribute the pessimism to sour grapes and Charlie Brown effect.)

Boring is good because boring is safe!

Got to admit that FSD v12.3 vid is impressive. We need more examples of it driving to tell just how improved it is (or if it has taken any steps backwards), but FSD progress does seem to be accelerating a bit now. I'm not sure if we'll get to L5 this year or not, but I'd say two years from now seems fairly probable. It's closer than it's ever been for certain.
 
Boring is good because boring is safe!

Got to admit that FSD v12.3 vid is impressive. We need more examples of it driving to tell just how improved it is (or if it has taken any steps backwards), but FSD progress does seem to be accelerating a bit now. I'm not sure if we'll get to L5 this year or not, but I'd say two years from now seems fairly probable. It's closer than it's ever been for certain.
Indeed. Now, just imagine V23 or so. This is just the very beginning.
 
It was boring... how I like it... Bullish.

I keep reading how people here on TMC think the time horizon is still years out. Are we expecting Steve McQueen driving skills here?

I fully expect a pilot service (or a driverless or supervisor-less rollout) happens this year at minimum. Folks can't stomach my max est. (Bolt can, but he's about the only one here. I attribute the pessimism to sour grapes and Charlie Brown effect.)

I find the idea we go from a version that last rev hit multiple parked cars while human supervised, and is still not trusted enough driver supervised to be available to anyone but employees and a tiny tiny tiny # of folks like Omar, to a commercially deployed driverless pilot, in what would amount to 8 months or less, to be.... an unrealistic expectation.
 
"Explaining her away" is a rather harsh way to put it. I was simply saying she got a price target correct despite her model being incorrect. I feel that's an important distinction to keep in mind when valuing Cathie's models and price targets going forward. Doesn't mean I'm trying to belittle her, or dismiss her, or whatever, but facts are facts whether we like them or not.

Her model is still a good indicator of what we can expect TSLA to do long term down the road. It's her dates which should be taken skeptically, IMHO.
Is it harsh? Let me scroll back through the forum and other threads and count the number of times she’s been called loony, crazy, out of touch etc…

You may not be trying to belittle her, but you’re liking posts by those who are, which leaves a certain impression. This is the first post where you acknowledge her correct answer. I’m the one who’s been pushing that she got the correct outcome when no one else did. But good to know you recognize that fact.

Cool. You think she’s got the timing wrong. Ok. I just remind you that she was unknowingly pessimistic about her timeline the first go around when she was being shouted down during live interviews. Her favorite line, quoting Louise Yamada, which should appeal to the technical traders - the longer the base, the bigger the breakout. How does the timing look now?

To be clear, I don’t actually care what she’s modeling anymore than I care what anyone else is modeling. But I’m betting she’ll be right again with the outcome and everyone else will continue to be wrong about the outcome.

I continue to pay attention to the company, its actions, its plans, and its results. I continue to pay attention to the false narratives and manipulations.

Mom isn’t the only one with intuitive skills. As I knew from the start that Tesla would succeed (feel free to look in the archives), I continue to know you ain’t seen nothing yet. Take that as you will, but I have a lifetime of being intuitively right all day long, every day. Place your bets, but I wouldn’t recommend any timed options.
 
I find the idea we go from a version that last rev hit multiple parked cars while human supervised, and is still not trusted enough driver supervised to be available to anyone but employees and a tiny tiny tiny # of folks like Omar, to a commercially deployed driverless pilot, in what would amount to 8 months or less, to be.... an unrealistic expectation.
The reason we don't yet have V12 is unclear at this stage, and an anomaly still. No assumptions should be made regarding if it's ready or not, and there is plenty of evidence V12 is far superior to anything we have ever seen. This begs the question why don't we have it yet??? The issue is society IMO and managing the FUD. >10x safer than humans makes sense from that standpoint because... well... humans think they're perfect.

Are you also saying that it's OK if a teen is posting selfies while driving is OK? No right? Then it's not about safety, it's about perceived safety and managing the transition. FYI, it's about to occur IMO, and it's gonna hurt at first. New movies with Tesla's hitting people for sure. Stock dives on first accidents etc... but I've been there before with Tesla.