Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[unk45]

Not exactly. As I read it, in three years 25% must be Indian content, and only 8,000 low priced cars per year allowed at low duty. This means that when the ramp just starts 25% must be Indian content, and virtually no income from imports. Hard to do with no BEV supply chain in India and very low car volume. I'm not saying Tesla can't pull it off, but it's going to be very hard. This was clearly written to discourage foreign investors.

It’s understandable to reach that conclusion but the reality, in my opinion, is rather more complex. India has long had challenging relationships with foreign investors. Rules established nationally are not applied with consistency among States and Union Territories.
Political, educational and industrial policies all vary in application are well as legislation, culture and language:

States Uts - Know India: National Portal of India

knowindia.india.gov.in

The link is official India government, so actually understates the challenges.
In other important factors both Tata and Mahindra & Mahindra produce BEV’s and are investing in more. Look them up for more details.
Further:

States Uts - Know India: National Portal of India

knowindia.india.gov.in

Then consider the state of India’s electrical infrastructure:

Why it is the beginning of a new era for the Indian power system - ET EnergyWorld

This article looks at why 1st October, 2023 was a historic day for the Indian Power System and how the latest reform measures herald the beginning of a new era for the power sector.

energy.economictimes.indiatimes.com

The foregoing is a serious simplification, of course, but shows direction.
Then, consider India’s complex and distrustful relationship with China.

Now: think about opportunities for Tesla in context. Viewing and negotiating from a narrow, cars only, perspective is definitely not what India nationally, regionally or business needs or wants. The opportunities for participating in higher quality cell and battery production, with cooperation from non-Chinese partners, can go far to further India priorities.

Beyond that the engineering and other talent base in and with India cooperation is formidable.

Rather than continue with more about this we might well see India and it’s resources are crucially important to Tesla and it’s mission.
It is quite probable that there are some major SpaceX opportunities too.

Looking at this as only a few cars and an initial deal is looking at the equivalent of the very first Tesla Roadster or Falcon 1. This is only a tiny first step…

 

[Snerruc]

What I’m reading here is encouraging to me. Maybe it will work on my unicorn S which has never worked on any FSD version I’ve tried. Currently when I turn it on, it immediately moves to the left most lane and refuses to leave it. At least that’s better than when it wanted to take right turns at 40 mph+ in the city. And yes, Tesla has looked at the car.

 

[joh01652]

Updated to 2023.44.30.25 (v12.3) on my 2020 LR Y with hw 3.0 and ultrasonic sensors early yesterday morning in Sedona, AZ. It's amazing, you all will be pleased, a 10-steps-forward-haven't-observed-any-steps-back kind of update. Feel free to skip this post if you don't want the details.

Gone are the annoying unnecessary lane changes and suddenly veering off-route into turn lanes. Much less jerky and spastic, really not at all. Smoother all around, even takes round-a-bouts smoother (even though I've never had much problems with round-a-bouts, unlike others). Yesterday morning I took off around 5am in the dark. My initial chief complaint was the sudden acceleration from stop, over-shooting the speed limit by 5 mph, then suddenly slowing down 3-4 mph (have all my settings set to "chill"). BUT yesterday afternoon and this morning (5am again in the dark) all that went away (don't know what could account for this--a total recalibration of the FSD system? Just guessing...).

ONE HUGE BENEFIT is that the driver can now TURN OFF autowipers when FSD is activated. It was raining on and off yesterday afternoon on my test drive, and although autowipers still suck, at least now the driver can turn them on and off at will. Each time FSD is engaged, autowipers are also engaged, but it is simple to turn them on/off during any given session. Perhaps Tesla is using driver usage of wipers to train FSD? Just a thought...

My big question: is the FSD system already "learning?" I ask because yesterday morning, while turning left up my crooked, narrow, un-lane-marked street in the dark for the first time with v12, the vehicle would have absolutely T-ed into a curb had I not intervened. This surprised me as this has never happened before with any other FSD versions (have had this house since 2020, been in FSD beta since 2019). But the second time, later yesterday afternoon, the car did not come close to hitting the curb, and proceeded much more cautiously, too cautiously, in fact, up the road to my home at only 7mph, like it was scared. Now this morning, again in the dark, it took the corner much more smoothly and confidently with no danger of hitting the curb and went about 10mph up the street (it's a very narrow street, more like a driveway, with trees lining both sides and no visibility, so 10mph is acceptable in this instance). Am extremely impressed. Again, I can't help but wonder if there is some kind of major recalibration of car's system, and a new "mapping" of sorts of the terrain. Anyway, all conjecture, but that's what happened.

This morning the drive was practically flawless. My only point against it was entering a round-a-bout too quickly, but that's a somewhat subjective statement. It wasn't dangerous as there were no pedestrians or cars around, but I could see a cop ticketing me for going 20+mph through a round-a-bout at 530am. Uber riders, or the elderly, would also not be pleased with that kind of speed in that situation.

Some TMCers have argued for lower FSD prices to entice customers to try it and increase take-rate. I’ve disagreed all this time because I felt it was too crappy and people would be too turned off. I've got a buddy who just got his first EV, a Tesla Y, 5 weeks ago, had FSD for a free trial period upon purchase, said it sucked and was too dangerous and wouldn't use it again. That is why I never felt Tesla should lower prices on FSD--it just wasn't there yet, and I didn't want it to reflect badly on Tesla.

But that's changed now. I think Tesla should lower FSD prices to entice people to try it. It is that good now. It is not robotaxi ready yet, shouldn't sleep while driving yet, but it's good enough now that I would feel comfortable with my 75 year old mother experimenting with it. It’s really that good, a major major leap in the right direction. I'll continue to post more if I feel something is worth mentioning.

 

[Musskiah]

The average FY2025 earnings estimate is $4.06, down from $5.27 projected from the end of last year. So projected FY2025 earnings of $4.06 is also less than FY2022 earnings. This pessimistic forecast will be revised upward for several reasons:

-Prices for S3XY have stabilized. The large drop in prices throughout last year kept in lockstep with interest rates in order to maintain demand. Prices will continue to stabilize, and indeed may rise a bit as we have seen with MY; especially as the FED inevitably cuts rates into and throughout 2025.

-Tesla may be "approaching the 'natural limit' of cost declines" for the current lineup, but some automotive experts (Jeff Lutz being the foremost who comes to mind) still predict significant COGS declines in 2024. As prices stabilize or rise, these cost reductions will increase automotive margins in 2025.

-We are now begining to grasp with v12.3 that Elon was correct when he stated 10 months ago in the David Faber interview, "Tesla will have a ChatGPT moment." Chuck Cook is biased towards safety given his background; his recent comments are telling. In 2025, it now appears quite probable FSD will have had it's moment.

-Tesla Energy Lathrop will be contributing $15B in revenue with something like double auto profit margins. Tesla Energy Deferred Revenue will number in the $2-4B range (essentially pure profit). Tesla Energy Lingang (Shanghai) will ramp throughout 2025, also contributing to margins similar to how Lathrop had in 2023, which was not insignificant. Between the 2 Megapacktories, and Deferred Energy Rev Tesla Energy will contribute $2 per share or more in 2025.

-Tesla Semi will be fully ramped sometime in 2025. This is a near certainty. Expect $0.50 EPS contribution from Semi in 2025.

-Cybertruck will be fully ramped in 2025. Just $70k ASP on 100k units would garner $0.50 in EPS.

-Supercharger Network and Services will contribute much more in 2025.

-The Rise of the Humanoid Robots is upon us: From Figure 01 to Optimus and all 20+ humanoid robots now under development, competition breeds innovation. We have already seen many robots doing actual useful work. This evolution will happen much quicker than most suppose. It is not unimaginable that Optimus will help decrease costs in a Telsa factory, particularly Austin, in 2025.

 

[Musskiah]

FWIW, the word "scheme" as used across the pond does not carry the negative connotations associated with it in the US. It's more synonymous with "plan" or "system".

Thank you, I didn't know that. FWIW I posted a direct quote from the article, it is a word used by the author of the article, not by me.

 

[unk45]

The average FY2025 earnings estimate is $4.06, down from $5.27 projected from the end of last year. So projected FY2025 earnings of $4.06 is also less than FY2022 earnings. This pessimistic forecast will be revised upward for several reasons:

-Prices for S3XY have stabilized. The large drop in prices throughout last year kept in lockstep with interest rates in order to maintain demand. Prices will continue to stabilize, and indeed may rise a bit as we have seen with MY; especially as the FED inevitably cuts rates into and throughout 2025.

-Tesla may be "approaching the 'natural limit' of cost declines" for the current lineup, but some automotive experts (Jeff Lutz being the foremost who comes to mind) still predict significant COGS declines in 2024. As prices stabilize or rise, these cost reductions will increase automotive margins in 2025.

-We are now begining to grasp with v12.3 that Elon was correct when he stated 10 months ago in the David Faber interview, "Tesla will have a ChatGPT moment." Chuck Cook is biased towards safety given his background; his recent comments are telling. In 2025, it now appears quite probable FSD will have had it's moment.

-Tesla Energy Lathrop will be contributing $15B in revenue with something like double auto profit margins. Tesla Energy Deferred Revenue will number in the $2-4B range (essentially pure profit). Tesla Energy Lingang (Shanghai) will ramp throughout 2025, also contributing to margins similar to how Lathrop had in 2023, which was not insignificant. Between the 2 Megapacktories, and Deferred Energy Rev Tesla Energy will contribute $2 per share or more in 2025.

-Tesla Semi will be fully ramped sometime in 2025. This is a near certainty. Expect $0.50 EPS contribution from Semi in 2025

-Cybertruck will be fully ramped in 2025. Just $70k ASP on 100k units would garner $0.50 in EPS.

-Supercharger Network and Services will contribute much more in 2025.

-The Rise of the Humanoid Robots is upon us: From Figure 01 to Optimus and all 20+ humanoid robots now under development, competition breeds innovation. We have already seen many robots doing actual useful work. This evolution will happen much quicker than most suppose. It is not unimaginable that Optimus will help decrease costs in a Telsa factory, particularly Austin, in 2025.

We cannot really overstate the significance of the huge drop in lithium prices, including all qualities:

https://www.goldmansachs.com/intelligence/pages/electric-vehicle-battery-prices-falling.ht

 

[Musskiah]

We cannot really overstate the significance of the huge drop in lithium prices, including all qualities:

https://www.goldmansachs.com/intelligence/pages/electric-vehicle-battery-prices-falling.ht

I agree. Cost declines in batteries, along with lithium and many other commodities will contribute to both automotive and storage cost reductions. This is the inverse of what happened in 2023 with severe inflation.

 

[Cobos]

We cannot really overstate the significance of the huge drop in lithium prices, including all qualities:

https://www.goldmansachs.com/intelligence/pages/electric-vehicle-battery-prices-falling.ht

Corrected URL

 

[Musskiah]

Corrected URL

Holy what the?!.!?!? That's a 30% reduction in battery costs from 2023 to 2025!!

 

[SOULPEDL]

Being upside-down is only an issue for someone trading in a car that they haven't owned very long.

There are other reasons: The value isn't worth paying anymore (poor investment), and repair issues (was said I think) which is essentially the same as low value and not worth paying anymore. Basically, it feels like throwing money away, so you stop making payments. I should know, I did it in the 90's and yet could still afford the payments. (Not proud of it, but it's real, I've changed ).

The Car Guys recommend waiting until this summer to buy a car, and they likely know the timing from experience. Serious price wars incoming.

 

[Zaddy Daddy]

The average FY2025 earnings estimate is $4.06, down from $5.27 projected from the end of last year. So projected FY2025 earnings of $4.06 is also less than FY2022 earnings. This pessimistic forecast will be revised upward for several reasons:

-Prices for S3XY have stabilized. The large drop in prices throughout last year kept in lockstep with interest rates in order to maintain demand. Prices will continue to stabilize, and indeed may rise a bit as we have seen with MY; especially as the FED inevitably cuts rates into and throughout 2025.

Used Tesla prices (highly correlated with new as shown before) have not stabilized.

Again, price cuts have been much more deep than what can be attributed to interest rates.

Again, EV price cuts have been way heavier than ICE price cuts in similar price segments.

-Tesla may be "approaching the 'natural limit' of cost declines" for the current lineup, but some automotive experts (Jeff Lutz being the foremost who comes to mind) still predict significant COGS declines in 2024. As prices stabilize or rise, these cost reductions will increase automotive margins in 2025.

Tesla themselves said to expect less COGs declines this year.

-We are now begining to grasp with v12.3 that Elon was correct when he stated 10 months ago in the David Faber interview, "Tesla will have a ChatGPT moment." Chuck Cook is biased towards safety given his background; his recent comments are telling. In 2025, it now appears quite probable FSD will have had it's moment.

Definitely nothing close to robotaxi, but will it signficantly increase margins w/o cutting subscription prices as a nice L2 system?

Let's say it allows 500,000 more people to subscribe at $200 / month. If we assume almost all profit, that's 1.2 billion in profit. About $0.4 in EPS maybe?

Now when opening up to Europe / China, I think you could add quite a bit more. Not 500,000 at $200 / month, but maybe 500,000 at $100 / month? Another $0.2 in EPS

So let's guess it adds $0.6 in EPS in 2025. That's not insignficant.

-Tesla Energy Lathrop will be contributing $15B in revenue with something like double auto profit margins. Tesla Energy Deferred Revenue will number in the $2-4B range (essentially pure profit). Tesla Energy Lingang (Shanghai) will ramp throughout 2025, also contributing to margins similar to how Lathrop had in 2023, which was not insignificant. Between the 2 Megapacktories, and Deferred Energy Rev Tesla Energy will contribute $2 per share or more in 2025.

I think a reasonable assumption is 60 GWh of Energy products in 2025, Shanghai certainly won't be fully ramped for the year, and the latency between production and revenue recognition means even 2nd half of 2025 will be dependent on 1st half of 2025 Shanghai production rate (if not earlier).

Revenues on packs out of Shanghai will almost certainly be lower / kwh, but costs lower too. I think could target a 15%-20% operating margin.

Tesla charges ~ $400 / kwh currently, that will be cut down over time for Lathrop and then even lower for Shanghai.

Let's say $350 / kwh max. At 20% operating margin and 60 GWh, that's 4.2 billion in incremental income, aka $1.2 in EPS.

-Tesla Semi will be fully ramped sometime in 2025. This is a near certainty. Expect $0.50 EPS contribution from Semi in 2025

This seems totally aggressive. What is the data that the line is being built quickly? Only note was beginning of volume production by end of 2024 (we heard one mention). Certainily not full scale production much like Cybertruck ramp a year later.

I honestly have no idea on this one how much to model for 2025. 10k semis? 20k? 20k seems like too fast a ramp.

15k semis at $200k per vehicle, 15% operating margin = 450 million in net income, $0.13 in EPS.

-Cybertruck will be fully ramped in 2025. Just $70k ASP on 100k units would garner $0.50 in EPS.

I model $0.4 but generally agree

-Supercharger Network and Services will contribute much more in 2025.

Not sure about this as they keep saying they aren't going to make much money from other EVs (and frankly, there aren't that many other EVs).



So, outside of base S3XY, I just modeled over $2 in incremental EPS from those things. I think that's reasonable.

The question then comes down to how much can we squeeze out of S3XY? Right now, those are gonna generate $0.4 to $0.5 in EPS this quarter, or $2 in EPS annualized. While there still seems to be downward price pressure, I'd have to think interest rates will be lower in 2025 maybe 2%.

I think Tesla should be able to eek out an extra $2000 per vehicle. I believe that would give an extra $1.2 in EPS in 2025.

So based on all that, I would model ~ $5.2 in EPS in 2025.

So while we have different assumptions on different parts of the business....I agree?

Now about valuation. Let's say market gives Tesla a forward PE ratio of 50 (thus a TTM PE even higher), then that forecasts a share price of $250.

So you can see why months ago when the share price as at $250, I wasn't feeling as bullish because a lot of the upside was embedded already.

Now at $160, 56% upside in share price in the next year isn't bad. Not spectacular, but definitely better than index funds and I'd think likely outperform S&P500 or Nasdaq index performance in the next year.

 

[dhanson865]

Link is gone... truth hurts?

Corrected URL

the person that posted the URL left 2 characters off the end, it's html not ht.

 

[2daMoon]

There are other reasons: The value isn't worth paying anymore (poor investment), and repair issues (was said I think) which is essentially the same as low value and not worth paying anymore. Basically, it feels like throwing money away, so you stop making payments. I should know, I did it in the 90's and yet could still afford the payments. (Not proud of it, but it's real, I've changed ).

The Car Guys recommend waiting until this summer to buy a car, and they likely know the timing from experience. Serious price wars incoming.

Those are pertinent facts, but, that post by the car guy seemed to be trying to make the point that upside-down loans were a factor affecting the market in a negative way.

He's not talking about owners defaulting on their loans. Being upside-down is only a factor when they want to trade into another car. Financing that deal is more challenging for those buyers.

The market is fine, and EVs are gaining share in it. So, nothing-burger.

Those select owners who are upside-down and trying to trade into a less disappointing vehicle, for whatever reason, are in a tough spot.

Perhaps, what he was intimating is the dealers are suffering because they are unable to arrange financing for many of these people, and, it is costing them sales because the buyers are too far upside-down for them to bridge the gap through their lending services. If buyers aren't keeping their cars past the warranty period the entrenched service industry that depends upon scheduled maintenance and non-warranty failures in order to remain solvent will suffer.

As unfortunate as this may be for those buyers and those dealers, this is bullish for EVs in general, and Tesla in particular, as it likely represents a shift in demand by consumers desiring a better ownership experience overall. A new benchmark has been established to measure their long term satisfaction against.

Going forward, education campaigns that result in knowledge of this aspect becoming more widely known will further accelerate the shift to EVs.

 

[Musskiah]

@Zaddy Daddy

Using a graph of past prices does not convey a thing about future prices. MY prices will be on the rise in both Europe and US in weeks. This is a sign we are at a local bottom and near/at stabilization. I didn't mean to imply price cuts were only because of interest rates, so I agree with you the depth of the ruthless price cuts Tesla exacted on the competition was not commensurate with interest rates - it was in fact more of a a coup de grâce!

By stating "Tesla may be approaching a 'natural limit' " (this is their words from most recent earnings) I was aknowledging that Tesla expects less cost declines - I agree with you. As @unk45 has shared, cost declines are still expected to come from batteries, and I would add other commodities. This will not be insignificant.

You forgot to add Deferred Tesla Energy Revenue to your forecast. Tesla has already stated $1.05B of this Revenue will be realized in the next 12 months (2024). In 2025, this will be well over $2B and perhaps as much as $4B by my estimation - I don't really want to get into the math here, but it's plain to see this if you examine the difference in this Deferred Energy Revenue between 2022 and 2023. This Revenue alone will contribute nearly $1EPS (or more) ON TOP of the 2 Megapacktories. Your margins are low for Energy in 2025- I would put them at between 25-30%. Otherwise, I generally agree with your numbers. I stand by my CONSERVATIVE $2 FY2025 EPS forecast from Energy (Deferred and 2 Megapacktories combined). Larry Goldburg, though we may take his forecast with a grain of salt, makes a fairly compelling case for 2035 35% Energy Margins with $10B profit (FWIW 2024 Energy forecast is 25% margins with $4B profit). For those who missed it, here is the link again: Start at 9:30

I like your FSD assessment, that is reasonable, and probably rightly conservative. Of course, it is entirely possible we could be in for a monster suprise here!

Tesla targets 50k ramp in semis by EOY 2025. I think 20k in 2025 is reasonable with 15k coming in the second half. I think your margins are low as they will preferentially sell the $250k version along with, perhaps, premium upgrades as they always do. I can live with $0.40 EPS

I am glad we agree on Cybertruck, this means we have tested our theories with rigor from different perspectives and arrived at, perhaps, the most accurate conclusion of all.

Google Finance - Stock Market Prices, Real-time Quotes & Business News
Tesla Inc (TSLA) - Services and Other Revenue is at a current level of 8.319B, up from 6.091B one year ago. This is a change of 36.58% from one year ago. The growth is Supercharger revenue, in particular, comes from Tesla's growing fleet. Even if they ONLY add another 2M cars in 2024, that's another 2M paying customers to the network.

I really like your conclusion, IF you were to add in the Deferred Energy Revenue of $1 EPS, and then modify the arithmetic accordingly. One thing is certain, you and I both agree Tesla is currently undervalued: You think 56%, I think something closer to 100%.

On a personal note: @Zaddy Daddy I genuinely have always appreciated your analysis. You have helped me realize that, perhaps, it is not that you are a contrarian as much as I am an eternal optimist. Thank you for continuing to help me temper my assumptions.

 

[capster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1769288904832905590

View attachment 1028868

Rolls Royce outsold GMC by better than 3-to-1 at 51 to 16 respectively. If Mary is leading, one does wonder where to…

I’ll grant that the Rolls Royce Spectre EV is a looker and the only EV besides a Tesla that I would like to have. Though it is too pricey for me at $450K-ish.

 

[Singuy]

FB fsd software group continues to shower posts with people being mind blown. This is the first time I have ever seen such a reception since I joined 2 years ago. It's usually a cesspool of laughing emojis, sarcastic comments, and FSD is a fraud being mentioned after every update.

 

[Wingfoiler]

Definitely nothing close to robotaxi, but will it signficantly increase margins w/o cutting subscription prices as a nice L2 system?

Let's say it allows 500,000 more people to subscribe at $200 / month. If we assume almost all profit, that's 1.2 billion in profit. About $0.4 in EPS maybe?

Now when opening up to Europe / China, I think you could add quite a bit more. Not 500,000 at $200 / month, but maybe 500,000 at $100 / month? Another $0.2 in EPS

So let's guess it adds $0.6 in EPS in 2025. That's not insignficant.

I appreciate your regular grounded projections of near-term earnings implications. However, I think the calculation of X subscribers at $Y/mo subscription fee is missing perhaps two of the bigger implications of a 'ChatGPT' moment on both Tesla's business and TSLA:

1. Once it becomes obvious that compelling autonomy is inevitable and that Tesla has both a hardware and data advantage, Tesla vehicles may demand a sales price premium as people won't want to buy into a 'dumb' car, increasing vehicle margins.

2. This ChatGPT moment may drive a much higher TSLA P/E multiple, as people start believing the future earnings potential for the autonomy part of the business, and some folks may rush into it as an "AI play" that has been underappreciated in the last year of AI mania.

I'm not that focused on either of these things as I believe the real 'winnings' are farther over the horizon and prefer to keep accumulating at these share prices. But I think it's potentially risky to think that EPS and TSLA upside is constrained by the # of FSD subscribers at the current subscription price.

 

[unk45]

Corrected URL

Thanks!

 

[SOULPEDL]

So... what's the SP on Monday? Here's one take.

Short sellers are on notice and might be proceeding cautiously with their little games. IMO, FSD hype builds in Monday's pre-market, maybe a spike at open, followed by the usual FUD and selloff, but not lower than 160! The knife hit the ground - again IMO - and for the win. The media FUD on FSD will likely ramp faster than CyberTruck.

My bet with @cab was "Hits 180 before 160." I don't give up easily, and FSD V12.3 may have bailed me out for a bit. But without a clear path to income on rideshare, so far it's only a bump in FSD sales/subscription at this point. We can all agree on that I think. Many more will want to try or buy it now, some here already.

It was suggested earlier to drop the FSD prices. Yes, but I think we wait a bit to make sure our existing drivers flesh out any kinks. Use this expertise! Then on April 1st, and before earnings, and with Reverse and Actually Smart Summon in place (notice the timing in "2 weeks"), make it free on a 30 day trial and rake it in May and June $.

It's time to throw out the net and pull in some fish so I can win my little bet sooner than later!

 

[Knightshade]

My big question: is the FSD system already "learning?" I ask because yesterday morning, while turning left up my crooked, narrow, un-lane-marked street in the dark for the first time with v12, the vehicle would have absolutely T-ed into a curb had I not intervened. This surprised me as this has never happened before with any other FSD versions (have had this house since 2020, been in FSD beta since 2019). But the second time, later yesterday afternoon, the car did not come close to hitting the curb, and proceeded much more cautiously, too cautiously, in fact, up the road to my home at only 7mph, like it was scared. Now this morning, again in the dark, it took the corner much more smoothly and confidently with no danger of hitting the curb and went about 10mph up the street (it's a very narrow street, more like a driveway, with trees lining both sides and no visibility, so 10mph is acceptable in this instance). Am extremely impressed. Again, I can't help but wonder if there is some kind of major recalibration of car's system, and a new "mapping" of sorts of the terrain. Anyway, all conjecture, but that's what happened.

There is never any on-vehicle learning (and it'd be nightmarish to troubleshoot if there were since every car in the fleet would behave differently)

There's a ton of environmental factors that can cause it to act differently in seemingly the same spot.... and the car does get real-time map and routing data that can change FSD behavior in some ways (but not the NNs themselves)