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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Troy is wrong there (shocking right?), mostly because he is using in vehicle usable capacity instead of the actual cell capacity if I'm not mistaken, you don't measure energy density like that

Gen 1 4680s were 86.5 Wh and 355 Wh/kg, resulting in 243.6 Wh/kg

Now for Gen 2 it gets trickier because we have none of the numbers, just that it's energy density is 10% better, so 268 Wh/kg, but we don't know how they weight changed, everything indicates that the jelly roll is longer, so the cell might actually be heavier

We can try to figure out from Cybertruck. 1320 cells according to my own estimates, maximum drained we saw is 124 kWh, add a 4 kWh buffer and the pack is 128 kWh, or 96,7 Wh per cell, which seem fair, for 268 Wh/kg, means the cell got fatter by a few grams at 362g

Were are splitting hairs at this level of trying to figure out

So it's barely more energy dense (if your numbers are correct) than a Panasonic 2170?
 
Got V12 last night. First time I ever wasn't disappointed with a hyped up new version. The camera position issues seem real though. On V11 there were so many flaws that the issues due to camera positions were easy to overlook. Now that most of those flaws have been completely eradicated, what's left are the cases where it is limited by visibility, such as perpendicular traffic at intersections.

Given my brief experience, I don't think my 2018 Model 3 will ever drive itself to work while I sleep. Tesla will adapt and do what needs to be done though. As a TSLA owner I expect the whole issue of "going to work" will be solved for me in the end after all.

Side topic: We all know that FSD is a real meaningful AI application, but how do you feel about ChatGPT up to this point? To me it feels just like a helper tool for entertainnment and art creation industry, but not really meaningful otherwise. Teach me more on why every company is jumping into that.
At my small business we use ChatGPT and a few other generative AI tools every day. With the current capabilities the trick is to find something where it is usually right, saves time/effort, and nothing serious goes wrong when it messes up. We have it handling customer service, writing SQL queries for non-technical employees to let them glean insights from our database, generating "stock" photos, writing code (Copilot), etc... I'm paying about $80/month but I would pay $2,000 a month if I had to. It's that valuable to me already.
 
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Yes, it's on par, a bit more than LG cells, and lets not diminish it, starting to make batteries from scratch and in a few years you are neck on neck with the battery titans that have decades of experience? Amazing

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Well, this was the slide they shared in 2020 at Battery Day. They also said it would help them produce the $25k robotaxi in three years but, alas, here we are.
 
Employees working hours has nothing to do with production. The article said production line remains open for full duration as usual so i dont see how production goes down. Maybe they finally hired enough staff for the job when ther was a shortage around chinese new year?

The employees you want to cut are expensive Berlin ones, not cheaper chinese ones, and in Berlin electrical workers worked day and night trying to get power online. Why would they do that if Tesla wants to cut production?
The article said the lengths of the shifts are the same, but there are fewer shifts.
 
We are doomed.
We are not doomed. A friendly observation... that wasn't much of a dip (aside from the whole dip this year) which indicates you may have too much riding on the stock price. Hang in there.

Keep in mind, there can be zero growth in vehicle sales even while Tesla sales continue to grow along with market share. And if it really is softer, (against all logic we've heard here), then so be it and hope that other stuff like Storage or FSD subscriptions kick in. They can't stop this train.
 
The whole point of highland was to make the car easier quicker and cheaper to make. They may well need fewer people, or less time to manufacture the same number of units.
I'll start to worry about Tesla's production and demand when they do not grow unit sales on a year to year basis. People should not obsess over small variations each quarter, let alone each month.
 
Got V12 last night. First time I ever wasn't disappointed with a hyped up new version. The camera position issues seem real though. On V11 there were so many flaws that the issues due to camera positions were easy to overlook. Now that most of those flaws have been completely eradicated, what's left are the cases where it is limited by visibility, such as perpendicular traffic at intersections.

Given my brief experience, I don't think my 2018 Model 3 will ever drive itself to work while I sleep. Tesla will adapt and do what needs to be done though. As a TSLA owner I expect the whole issue of "going to work" will be solved for me in the end after all.


At my small business we use ChatGPT and a few other generative AI tools every day. With the current capabilities the trick is to find something where it is usually right, saves time/effort, and nothing serious goes wrong when it messes up. We have it handling customer service, writing SQL queries for non-technical employees to let them glean insights from our database, generating "stock" photos, writing code (Copilot), etc... I'm paying about $80/month but I would pay $2,000 a month if I had to. It's that valuable to me already.
Adding more cameras, or any other sensors for that matter, opens up a whole other can of worms in then requiring training data from those new camera locations and sensors.

But I’ve been convinced FSD in its current configuration was always intended to remain Level 2, the human is there to account for any sensor deficiencies and own liability along the way. But V12 sounds like a promising step towards the *final* non-Beta release as a driver assist.
 
I made a call out many months ago thinking the stock was going to rebound to $300 for one reason: once supercharging rolls out for all the other EV's, the FUD would flip a switch and turn positive towards all things Tesla and Elon Musk.

Obviously, that's wrong now in the month of March. Anyone think there's a delayed reaction to this roll out into May/June for TSLA to rebound or is this new initiative a non-factor in the stock?
 
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My brother-in-law of 40 years just did the same to me. I can't believe he got to see one in the wild before I did.
After spending the last week on the first half of a long road trip across the South in our new Cybertruck, perhaps the only thing more difficult than getting to see a new CT in the wild is trying to drive one on the interstate while every driver around you is taking pics and videos of a new CT in the wild. We drove 18 hours the first day, and at least half of that was in the lens of someone’s iPhone - one after another , after another…. Lane changes/passing was almost always complicated by vehicles shadowing us for pics and videos of the truck rolling through the south at a high rate of speed. And Supercharger stops - ha! Dozens of pics taken and questions from multiple people at each one - non-stop fascination with the truck. It was like a Twilight Zone episode. Anyone thinking there isn’t sufficient interest and demand for this truck is off their nut! It’s beyond comprehension how many people of every demographic want one. Oh yeah - almost forgot to mention that it is a complete dream to drive.
 
I made a call out many months ago thinking the stock was going to rebound to $300 for one reason: once supercharging rolls out for all the other EV's, the FUD would flip a switch and turn positive towards all things Tesla and Elon Musk.

Obviously, that's wrong now in the month of March. Anyone think there's a delayed reaction to this roll out into May/June for TSLA to rebound or is this new initiative a non-factor in the stock?
Well, IMO, this is MUCH more complex than that.
 
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