Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Agreed.
Southern NH here. When using the MA service center, the big issue is we cannot take new car delivery without paying MA sales tax. I had to use Paramus NJ. Tesla is s l o w l y building a Londonderry NH service site. Not a fan of the location. Had it been near Rt 95N, the $outhern Maine folks could have benefited as well.

1) If it allows people to pick up the car with a temp tag it'd still be significant.

In Maine you can't legally drive (except to an inspection station with a transit plate) until the vehicle has been registered and inspected.
You can't inspect until registered.
You can't register until you have your title application completed.
You can't apply for the title until you have the MCO.

Temp plates just make the whole process easier.

2) It's a bit closer.
3) It avoids driving to or around Greater Boston
4) It's 4 miles from a bus stop on a bus service from BOS so there are reasonable options to get there and back without a car if necessary.

Wouldn't be anywhere near as good as having a delivery and service center in (South) Portland, ME, of course, but it would definitely be better.

Latest pictures show grading work: Londonderry NH Sales/Service Center

 

[jschwefel]

Okay, is anyone else checking their Tesla app multiple times a day to see if their Cybertruck and/or FSD version 12.3 are available? I don’t know which one I’m more excited for. Who cares about the stock price!

 

[GhostSkater]

View attachment 1030624

Well, this was the slide they shared in 2020 at Battery Day. They also said it would help them produce the $25k robotaxi in three years but, alas, here we are.

In that case the 16% refers to the cell design alone, the total gain should be 54%, which honestly I can see a path to it

All 4680s packs we've seen doesn't seem to be filled to the brim with cells, even when considering margins for side impact, once they start using Tesla Silicon, there will be a jump in energy

LG cells don't use any Silicon (afaik), and Tesla is above them already

If Tesla wanted, I don't doubt they could make a higher range Model 3/Y on 4680s today without any changes to the body, they simply have reasons not, which we can make a big list of why not

 

[mongo]

It's not nothing, and it's not his idea either. There's something to this rumor, and I draw the same conclusion as SMR.

"The planned big electric cruisers were expected to go on sale in early 2025, however, sources said that resources have been shifted at Ford to create three models:

1. A small SUV,​

2. A pickup and​

3. A "ride-hailing vehicle" sitting on an all new small vehicle platform."​

​

Not anytime soon, but in the works it would seem by the "Skunk-works Team" at Ford. Others will likely have to either follow or vanish. There's simply no time to catch up now, (or even 2 yrs ago).

https://www.thestreet.com/automotive/ford-is-making-a-radical-shift-towards-cheaper-evs-for-americans-

It's been said for years, and many times on this forum: Due to the need for so much driving data, there's no way others can compete with FSD anymore than someone could compete with Google. So in my head, FSD has been game over for quite sometime on this key fact that data is king and growth is exponential.

FWIW, Ford acquired Quantum Signal (now with AI) a while back. They were doing robot automation and had recent job opening titled Software Engineer, R&D Vehicle Applications.

 

[Papafox]

Personally, I've never subscribed to the market manipulation line of thinking, tbh. Mostly because I don't understand it. Maybe TSLA was range-bound between 2015-2019, but that's as far as I go in thinking that way.

For a major change in gigantic and historically old transportation and utility markets that Tesla is tackling, I do think TSLA was bound to the trickle down effects of its capability to change everything we do societally too. One can see, as its being played out over the past years, just how much impact Tesla's & EV's (alongside everything that relates to those products in that new market/ecosystem) presence is having on the old oil & gas market that we've all been living with for 100+ years now...

...so, hence, supercharging for all could be a latent or abrupt step change towards greater adoption in the general adoption of the EV market and all interrelated products over oil & gas.

Market manipulations not only exist, they're the norm with TSLA because there are so many options being traded and so much opportunity for the option sellers (such as market makers) to profit from some "tweaking" of the stock price. In my Tesla Charts post Thursday, I pointed out that the market makers would prefer a close below 170 on Friday (today) because of a huge number of call options expiring at the 170-strike. I also pointed out that next week there's a large number of puts at 170 and so the MMs would prefer for TSLA to close above 170 next week. TSLA has been trading about 25 cents below 170 for the most part this morning. It could diverge substantially as the day goes on if news provides substantial upward or downward pressure, but lacking that pressure the market makers are on track to see TSLA close right where they want it. That happens VERY often. If you are buy and hold no need to get into the specifics, but some of us do things like unlimited free rolling of call options in a tax-free-for-trading IRA, and we benefit from understanding how the manipulations work. That said, Mondays are low-manipulation days for the most part and the MMs tend to sit back and allow the stock price to better adjust to market pressures. They then have several days to see max pain and stock price converge before it's necessary to do another end of week "tweak" or two.

 

[FreqFlyer]

Lol questioning the whole EV transition is like questioning getting rid of coal. The entire world does not revolve around the US. China and EU has mandates. Transition in China is near 50% of all new car sales.

Even if theres a doubt for the US, the question Wallstreet should be having is, can legacy auto survive building two different powertrain when China and EU only want EVs and perhaps 20-30% of the people in the US only want evs?

Transition is 100% happening, but fear mongers and perhaps dumb bean counters ay legacy auto are looking at it with a blind eye.

Yes, they have been doing it for decades.

 

[jerry33]

Haha, I'm that nobody who would prefer the lower-spec car, at least with regard to the spec change from an LR/AWD to Performance.

I'll admit I'm an odd fellow and probably among a small minority, but if you offered me an LR/AWD and a Performance Model 3 for the same price, I would choose the LR because it would still cost me less over time..

I just don't value the increased acceleration or increased top speed or the style/appearance of larger wheels. At the same price point, I'd always choose the car with slightly better efficiency, slightly better range, and smaller wheels that are less prone to pothole damange and allow for cheaper/longer-lasting tires. I do drive in snow where the local authorities require tire chains unless you have all wheel drive, so the LR/AWD works for me better than the SR as well.

I'm not sure how many weirdos like myself there are...but ignoring the logistics for Tesla to offer more factory-built variations, I'd actually like to see Tesla offer an "economy" option with smaller diameter and slightly narrower wheels, to allow for some cheap/comfortable/non-high-speed tires with a tall sidewall...and that option should also offer a small bump in range and efficiency too.

Agreed. The things that matter most to me are range, tire life (includes flat resistance), efficiency, and FSD. As long as 0-85 is "yes" it's fine. Low aspect ratio tires are basically a marketing ploy to suck up people's money.

 

[traxila]

I believe this as well. FSD could get to Level 5 tomorrow and I don't think the stock would budge one bit, not until sales of FSD markedly went up, or until physical robotaxis were on the streets earning revenues.

TSLA has immense downward pressure on it, and I think the company is going to have to prove itself in the fundamentals in order to reverse that.

In short, I think we have a long time to go until FSD is helping out TSLA.

I don't believe this in the least. Demonstration and then confirmation of true FSD by outside interests will cause the SP to skyrocket.

I am stunned that anyone would believe otherwise. A fleet of millions of self driving cars is only of minimal passing interest to forward looking investors and will not impact the market? How about UBER? Would that still continue to hit record highs regardless?!

Wait and see is the ticket I guess.

 

[Singuy]

The article said the lengths of the shifts are the same, but there are fewer shifts.

Yes, fewer unneeded and perhaps OT shifts. Production line remains unchanged. So this is a COGs reduction masked as a bad thing.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Wall Street Will believe when FSD starts generating revenues. After so many failed attempts
Tesla has to show them the money.

Exactly, but don't wait and buy the pop.
IMO it already started (I'm certain), but gets going with an increased FSD take rate in Q2 - just for starters.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

I think opening the supercharging network is a non factor for the stock. At least until (unless?) it starts bringing in huge revenues, which I don't think that will be the case until EV's are a much higher percentage of cars on the roads.

Eventually the SC network will likely make great revenues for Tesla, but no time soon as its just too early.

It's a balance. It helps EV sales from other companies, but it's the fastest way to expand DCFC infrastructure, and thus expand the EV market, which helps with momentum. When every dealer can say "Here's an enormous, reliable national charging network, plus other networks as well" that's a major barrier removed.

Also, the industry unifying on NACS could be _extremely_ helpful with home charging at MDUs and larger-scale destination charging that would help remove a significant barrier to entry. Tesla already has a relatively cheap and simple solution with built-in power-sharing and billing. It's plug and charge for Teslas, and that could expand to the whole market.

 

[jerry33]

Okay, is anyone else checking their Tesla app multiple times a day to see if their Cybertruck and/or FSD version 12.3 are available? I don’t know which one I’m more excited for. Who cares about the stock price!

No. I just look in the car once a day. Much quicker than the App.

 

[ggies07]

This segment came out 6 days ago, but I don't remember seeing it posted here. I was skeptical when I saw the CNBC logo, but it actually turned out to be a very positive, data driven piece.

 

[SmokyPeat]

Nvidia on a tear. Yet again. That stock is a force of nature these days.

 

[NicoV]

Now Wall Street and shorts are questioning the whole EV transition, saying it won't happen and Hybrid will be the way (which I am afraid to be true)

Europe is already past the hybrid era. AFAIK, hybrids are considered ICE vehicles in most of Europe from a regulatory point of view.

 

[SOULPEDL]

FWIW, Ford acquired Quantum Signal (now with AI) a while back. They were doing robot automation and had recent job opening titled Software Engineer, R&D Vehicle Applications.

Thanks, it's worth something - I guess. More likely irrelevant as everyone is trying to improve on software and AI ASAP. I guarantee those 400 Stellantis employees were not software gurus. Legacy autos' problems are huge.

So how is Ford software in the Lightning? Better yet, how's Blue-Cruise doing? (Not that this couldn't happen to Tesla, but a rear-end collision should have been easy to avoid by now on any ADAS.)

NTSB launches investigation into Ford's Blue Cruise after fatal crash

The National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) has launched an investigation into Ford’s Blue Cruise semi-autonomous technology after a fatal accident in San Antonio, Texas. The accident occurred on February 24, 2024, involving a Ford Mustang-Mach-E […]

driveteslacanada.ca

 

[NicoV]

Tomorrow there are 7 consecutive hours of zero or negative electricity prices (energy component) in Belgium. We’re only March yet. Some time people will start noticing that EV’s may be cheap to charge and will want to have one.

 

[Mengy]

I don't believe this in the least. Demonstration and then confirmation of true FSD by outside interests will cause the SP to skyrocket.

I am stunned that anyone would believe otherwise. A fleet of millions of self driving cars is only of minimal passing interest to forward looking investors and will not impact the market? How about UBER? Would that still continue to hit record highs regardless?!

Wait and see is the ticket I guess.

My line of reasoning is this: If solving FSD was going to bump the stock up then you'd also think v12.3 would have bumped the stock up, because this is far and away the most impressive version of FSD ever created, and looking at the new rate of improvement it's pretty clear that Tesla is going to solve the puzzle of FSD, its just a matter of when now, not IF anymore.

To me this seems obvious, and yet the market has shrugged it off. I don't think Wall Street believes a solved FSD is valuable, I think they don't understand it, and I think they are going to have to see the quarterly earnings FROM FSD before they give TSLA any value for it.

Of course I would love it if you are correct and I am wrong! My hunch is Elon kicked that "FSD next year" can down the road too many times and now WS has given up on it. They will likely need to see the receipts first. Because otherwise TSLA would be much higher today than it actually is.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Nvidia on a tear. Yet again. That stock is a force of nature these days.

Wow... I bought some after @Artful Dodger (missing?) and someone else here said how the NVDA Fourth Extension was possible to $1,091 as I recall vaguely, It sounded really cool, like a move prequel to the Fifth Element, so I went for it.

 

[Todd Burch]

Also other reasons for continued downward price pressure:
1. New factory construction
2. Refreshed M3, presumably easier to assemble
3. New product line CT
4. Rapid progress on FSD with use of AI to decrease injury and accidents instead of just making movies of dolphins riding bicycles.
5. Associated companies also not doing well with Starship making orbit, neuralink connection to a quadriplegic to a computer
6. Lets not forget the one week holiday for Chinese New Years which has apparently derailed tesla singlehandedly that in combo with the lunar calendar (which moves by 10 days every year)

Don't forget lower COGS!