Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Linkmeup]

Of course I would love it if you are correct and I am wrong! My hunch is Elon kicked that "FSD next year" can down the road too many times and now WS has given up on it. They will likely need to see the receipts first. Because otherwise TSLA would be much higher today than it actually is.

Maybe this is similar to supercharging for all...in the sense that larger adoption rates need to show in the market for this potential indicator to turn into something realized.

 

[SmokyPeat]

Wow... I bought some after @Artful Dodger (missing?) and someone else here said how the NVDA Fourth Extension was possible to $1,091 as I recall vaguely, It sounded really cool, like a move prequel to the Fifth Element, so I went for it.

Nice. I bought back in about a year ago, then loaded up on NVDL about six months ago. Just wish I hadn't felt so shackled to TSLA.

 

[CHGolferJim]

Market manipulations not only exist, they're the norm with TSLA because there are so many options being traded and so much opportunity for the option sellers (such as market makers) to profit from some "tweaking" of the stock price. In my Tesla Charts post Thursday, I pointed out that the market makers would prefer a close below 170 on Friday (today) because of a huge number of call options expiring at the 170-strike. I also pointed out that next week there's a large number of puts at 170 and so the MMs would prefer for TSLA to close above 170 next week. TSLA has been trading about 25 cents below 170 for the most part this morning. It could diverge substantially as the day goes on if news provides substantial upward or downward pressure, but lacking that pressure the market makers are on track to see TSLA close right where they want it. That happens VERY often. If you are buy and hold no need to get into the specifics, but some of us do things like unlimited free rolling of call options in a tax-free-for-trading IRA, and we benefit from understanding how the manipulations work. That said, Mondays are low-manipulation days for the most part and the MMs tend to sit back and allow the stock price to better adjust to market pressures. They then have several days to see max pain and stock price converge before it's necessary to do another end of week "tweak" or two.

Happy to see you participating more in this thread recently, or so it seems, since dialogue is frowned upon in your thread

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Nvidia on a tear. Yet again. That stock is a force of nature these days.

The way $TSLA is performing today after the 'slowdown' article constitutes it as on a tear as well

 

[scaesare]

There is no semi production line. The semi is manually assembled. There is nothing in any of those pictures you wouldn’t see in the workshop of a large truck fleet. It makes no sense for Tesla to replicate that especially since a high volume production line is slightly less than a year away.

Well, there may not be an automated production line, but there is one as outlined in the recent video. It's largely manual and not very long, but there are a handful of stations the semi goes through to be completed. It's not all hand built in one location.

 

[scaesare]

The original plan was clearly to build Model 3 at GigaTexas. An old article to consider:

Tesla seemingly slips, briefly reiterates that Model 3 will be built in Giga Texas

Tesla may be quite silent about it in recent months, but the company still seems to be intent on producing the Model 3 in Gigafactory Texas. This was hinted at in the company’s newly-launched Manufacturing page, which briefly indicated that Giga Texas would be the site for the production of the...

www.google.com

There is limited room at Fremont. It would make sense for M3 Ludacris dedicated lines and eventually the LR and SR models to enter production in Texas. It makes shipping to the east coast of US and Canada less complex. They could take advantage of megacasting and perhaps even the unboxed manufacturing protocol. Also, as the price of the lower end M3 has come down, the TAM will rise as interest rates are cut in half over the next 24 months and monthly payments become much more affordable. Autonomous M3s will be gobbled up by the consumer in larger volumes as the inherent value is realized. I think Tesla is anticipating this inevitability. Lastly, M2 won't be produced in large volumes until at least late 2026 and more likely 2027. M3 will remain the low cost Tesla for some time still.

It's about time they hired a famous person to represent the brand...

 

[Knightshade]

Lol questioning the whole EV transition is like questioning getting rid of coal. The entire world does not revolve around the US. China and EU has mandates. Transition in China is near 50% of all new car sales.

Even if theres a doubt for the US, the question Wallstreet should be having is, can legacy auto survive building two different powertrain when China and EU only want EVs

TBC, that near 50% in china includes cars also with two different powertrains--- it's NEV, not BEV, near that marketshare.

Pure BEV in China is still only around 25% last I checked.

Still way ahead of the US of course.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Nice. I bought back in about a year ago, then loaded up on NVDL about six months ago. Just wish I hadn't felt so shackled to TSLA.

Oh, were you the other person? Thanks if so. I was going to buy NVDA a year ago as well, but didn't act and then was distracted by TSLA for sure.

I just don't like investing unless I know exactly what's going on (takes lots of time). I did some with Sirius Satellite back in the day before Howard Stern signed on, but it takes too much time to keep track of several companies, then there's the trust thing.

As a result, the main reason why I invested in NVDA recently was because Elon confirmed Tesla's use (even over Dojo at the time), they are an FSD/Optimus constraint, and they had more H100s on backorder. It sure looked like gold, for a little while longer... But like company making crazy margin, I'm gonna bail and wait for AMD and Intel to get in on the AI game. (Wife has the INTC part).

Keeping a perspective, this is my distribution - still. Nobody can say I don't HODL, and this is what it looks like.
IDK, I could be a little overweight on TSLA. (My entire IRA, the rest is in cash.)

 

[Southpasfan]

My line of reasoning is this: If solving FSD was going to bump the stock up then you'd also think v12.3 would have bumped the stock up, because this is far and away the most impressive version of FSD ever created, and looking at the new rate of improvement it's pretty clear that Tesla is going to solve the puzzle of FSD, its just a matter of when now, not IF anymore.

To me this seems obvious, and yet the market has shrugged it off. I don't think Wall Street believes a solved FSD is valuable, I think they don't understand it, and I think they are going to have to see the quarterly earnings FROM FSD before they give TSLA any value for it.

Of course I would love it if you are correct and I am wrong! My hunch is Elon kicked that "FSD next year" can down the road too many times and now WS has given up on it. They will likely need to see the receipts first. Because otherwise TSLA would be much higher today than it actually is.

Its the framing. Right now, basic cruise control and even GM''s "super cruise" or anything else, even cars that could self park -- those features have been considered and the verdict is they are just part of the car, like a nice stereo or sport wheels.

By framing, I mean all coverage of FSD for non tesla owners, is that it does not work 100% yet, which is true. Heck, look at the Autonomous board and most of TMC members throw just an many rocks at FSD as any FUD agent. Everyone, sadly, agrees that as long as it is supervised its of just nominal value at best.

There has to be two steps to the bump, IMO. One, its proven to work 100% of the time. Then, about five years after that, either robo taxis or selling the hardware and software to other manufacturers will bring in significant money.

Until then, it will be a slow upswing in take rate revenue. Unless its (stupidly, again IMO) priced too high, as it is now.

I said a day or so ago its going to be crazy buying opportunities to anyone paying attention, as the development is not only not a secret, its being done publicly.

 

[MD70]

This will be my last post on this subject for awhile.
My belief is that service/delivery centers help drive demand. Notice I said "help" and that is all I've ever said. Don't move the goal posts. Nothing more nothing less. Obviously you don't agree and I think you're in the minority. I just wish Tesla would go faster in some parts of the country. Where I live it's not a problem.

I agree with you, just like the supercharger, more service centres need to be built regularly.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Oh, were you the other person? Thanks if so. I was going to buy NVDA a year ago as well, but didn't act and then was distracted by TSLA for sure.

I just don't like investing unless I know exactly what's going on (takes lots of time). I did some with Sirius Satellite back in the day before Howard Stern signed on, but it takes too much time to keep track of several companies, then there's the trust thing.

As a result, the main reason why I invested in NVDA recently was because Elon confirmed Tesla's use (even over Dojo at the time), they are an FSD/Optimus constraint, and they had more H100s on backorder. It sure looked like gold, for a little while longer... But like company making crazy margin, I'm gonna bail and wait for AMD and Intel to get in on the AI game. (Wife has the INTC part).

Keeping a perspective, this is my distribution - still. Nobody can say I don't HODL, and this is what it looks like.
IDK, I could be a little overweight on TSLA. (My entire IRA, the rest is in cash.)

View attachment 1030718

Rookie #'s

 

[Usain]

Of course I would love it if you are correct and I am wrong! My hunch is Elon kicked that "FSD next year" can down the road too many times and now WS has given up on it. They will likely need to see the receipts first. Because otherwise TSLA would be much higher today than it actually is.

I don't think Wall Street needs to see big revenue. Elon's promises have put them to sleep and they just need to wake up.

V12 is just rolling out. If it does keep improving as fast as Elon said then the street will reach a point where they start to say, "Hey, this thing works after all. Better buy Tesla."

Of course an OEM announcement would have the same effect, but I'm not ready to believe that is imminent.

 

[Usain]

The way $TSLA is performing today after the 'slowdown' article constitutes it as on a tear as well

Yeah, I'm wondering if $TSLA is so beat down that even abysmal P&D numbers won't hurt it much.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Yeah, I'm wondering if $TSLA is so beat down that even abysmal P&D numbers won't hurt it much.

It is probably baked in already, there is so much negativity and when that normally happens, all it takes is some sliver of positivity to trend up.

 

[Mengy]

I don't think Wall Street needs to see big revenue. Elon's promises have put them to sleep and they just need to wake up.

V12 is just rolling out. If it does keep improving as fast as Elon said then the street will reach a point where they start to say, "Hey, this thing works after all. Better buy Tesla."

Of course an OEM announcement would have the same effect, but I'm not ready to believe that is imminent.

One would think so, yes. I'm not giving WS investors that much credit.

 

[larmor]

Yeah, I'm wondering if $TSLA is so beat down that even abysmal P&D numbers won't hurt it much.

But great P&D numbers will hurt more.

 

[Captkerosene]

My line of reasoning is this: If solving FSD was going to bump the stock up then you'd also think v12.3 would have bumped the stock up, because this is far and away the most impressive version of FSD ever created, and looking at the new rate of improvement it's pretty clear that Tesla is going to solve the puzzle of FSD, its just a matter of when now, not IF anymore.

To me this seems obvious, and yet the market has shrugged it off. I don't think Wall Street believes a solved FSD is valuable, I think they don't understand it, and I think they are going to have to see the quarterly earnings FROM FSD before they give TSLA any value for it.

Of course I would love it if you are correct and I am wrong! My hunch is Elon kicked that "FSD next year" can down the road too many times and now WS has given up on it. They will likely need to see the receipts first. Because otherwise TSLA would be much higher today than it actually is.

Tesla would be at $50 if it wasn't for FSD/Bot. Nvidia is taking the wind out of out share price. These guys are serious competition ... unlike legacy auto. Still think we win though.

 

[Usain]

Here's some fun Friday fare.

International Master, Levy Rozman, commentates the telepathic chess game played by Noland Arbaugh during the Neuralink video. Rozman's "Gotham Chess" is probably the most popular chess channel on YouTube and he's a great commentator.

Rozman has nothing but good things to say about Neuralink.

Noland is a pretty decent player and the game itself included a nice comeback win.

 

[Drax7]

Buying before this qtr numbers are released is risky.
After that risk is out of the way, more likely FSD buying
Will emerge.

 

[Usain]

Buying before this qtr numbers are released is risky.
After that risk is out of the way, more likely FSD buying
Will emerge.

Not buying before this qtr numbers is risky too. In the words of Frasier, "What is a boy to do?"