Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Krugerrand]

And you lack tact...
But that's OK. We still love you!

Did you fail to notice I agreed with his personal sentiment? I would never robo one of my vehicles. Ever.

I entirely understand his position, HOWEVER, that doesn’t mean I can’t see solutions for all his concerns. Nor do I fail to see that not everyone lives in the same reality.

I was actually quite tactful if you knew what I really wanted to say.

 

[Gigapress]

I think there will be a period of time when some of today's Tesla vehicles do participate in a robotaxi network. But most won't.

The Gen 3 vehicle is the purpose-built robotaxi. That's the one Tesla is counting on. So selling FSD right now is just a way to grow the business in the meantime.

I’m not so sure. I think a lot of people won’t be interested, until they see how much money they’re missing out on by keeping their car reserved for their own personal usage. A lot depends on just how much profit can be made from putting a privately owned Tesla vehicle on the network. Humans aren’t perfectly rational about opportunity cost, but if they’re losing like $15k per year then that’s hard to ignore. Moreover, the market value of used Teslas capable of FSD would almost certainly skyrocket to reflect the annual profitability. How many want to keep their own Tesla so badly that they’d refuse to resell it for $100k?

 

[SOULPEDL]

The net present value of the FSD program is also strongly a function of how soon it is deployed, which depends on how many people are using it right now. If FSD cost $100k, it would have almost no users and training would be very slow. If it cost $100 then almost everyone would buy it but Tesla would be practically donating the software and future value of it, in the event of it eventually reaching L4 or L5. There is likely a trade off and the current price reflects where Tesla wants to balance value vs adequate numbers of testers.

Is that like... "The truth lies somewhere between the two extremes?" (where did I just hear that?)

IMO, FSD involves (or even becomes) the insurance at some point. It won't be long before it's the car's fault in an accident and Tesla (insurance) pays for the damage (as States allow). This is also the right feedback path for FSD improvements. It really should be all the same company, fully owning FSD reliability and performance.

This will become essential for racing too - a new Driverless Class. I can't wait! Guaranteed wreck at every race, and zero injuries.

 

[EQC_]

I might’ve thought so in the past, but now I think a lot of owners will be increasingly inclined to put their vehicles in the robotaxi network as a function of the age of their vehicle.

That is, people will put their old or even not so old Teslas into the network rather than part with them when they buy new Teslas. Putting their previous Tesla in the fleet may enable many to buy a new Tesla.

Interesting idea.

Even just carpooling with coworkers, if you are the type who cares about your car, you quickly realize there's a trade-off to letting other people in your car. Sure, it cuts your commute costs...but a clumsy coworker might occasionally whack their metal water bottle into the car as they get in and out. The guy that wears big boots can't NOT drag them across the door card and interior trim every time the get in and out. Food or drinks get spilled occasionally. The guy who uses hair gel eventually leaves a thick coating of it embedded in the fabric of your headrests. There will be a guy who, one day, doesn't ask before sitting on the hood of your car while waiting for everybody to arrive.

Jump from coworkers sharing the space with the car owner, to complete strangers with no owner in site....you can imagine things will get much worse.

Robo-taxiing an old car solves much of this...although I'd still have a constant lingering fear of one day finding vomit in the car and having to figure out how to deal with it (even if the camera catches the culprit and it is a "covered" expense). I guess there may be a boom in business for regular cleaning/detailing on a schedule, plus an easy way to set up an "emergency" visit to deal with an incident...

 

[jerry33]

I've seen that previously.

Curious if that could be retrofitted to other vehicles. Also, not sure if this is true, but that wasn't included on the Highland.

I wouldn't think so because it's going to be part of the wiring harness. At best it would be very difficult.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Did you fail to notice I agreed with his personal sentiment? I would never robo one of my vehicles. Ever.

I entirely understand his position, HOWEVER, that doesn’t mean I can’t see solutions for all his concerns. Nor do I fail to see that not everyone lives in the same reality.

I was actually quite tactful if you knew what I really wanted to say.

Correct. I stopped at your opening sentence. If anyone said that to me, the rest of what you said might not get a chance to enter my brain.

"You lack imagination, but that’s ok. Not everyone can think outside of the box or even creatively."

 

[unk45]

Agree--sounds very good. I'm also stunned that, with a big, beautiful screen in every car, Tesla has not made an orientation/tutorial INTERACTIVE video to be watched and followed along by every purchaser at pick-up. I know about the set of short introductory videos to watch that one can find on the website, which are fine for what they are. This would be a permanent (updatable with new software) video tutorial that could be watched by the owner, and anyone else who will also drive the car, taking a new driver through every aspect of operating the car.

There could be a "quick-start" guide as well, but the key would be to have the participant work interactively through all of the initial adjustments and use of controls in a controlled, well thought out way.

This will become increasingly important as FSD is introduced. Heck--I've had my MY for a couple years now, but I'd love to follow such a video course. It's hard to keep up with all the updates. I'm glad to see more Tesla advertising, finally, and look forward to more customer education, that will be needed to engage the second wave of non-native Tesla-fan customers!

I have doubts about advertising but am wildly enthusiastic about product placements. The use of widely distributed mockups (i.e. simulators in Stores could be used to demonstrate FSD using actual data from a database that can show driving on a realistically imaged street, highway etc. Those already are ubiquitous in video games. Such a solution could allow formal buyer training, demonstration to prospects and entertaining education to young and not so young gamers.

Those are not so expensive but would instantly eliminate the need for actually operating a car on public roads for a demo. Repeating, that is the norm for aircraft and ships today. Some fo those simulators ar exotically expensive but those have motion. Eliminating motion makes these not much more expensive than those ubiquitous fake Optimi. It also is much easier than devoting sales time and, we find out, recruiting FSD owners to do the demos (at least the Florida Owners group has been asked to prepare to help).

 

[Krugerrand]

Interesting idea.

Even just carpooling with coworkers, if you are the type who cares about your car, you quickly realize there's a trade-off to letting other people in your car. Sure, it cuts your commute costs...but a clumsy coworker might occasionally whack their metal water bottle into the car as they get in and out. The guy that wears big boots can't NOT drag them across the door card and interior trim every time the get in and out. Food or drinks get spilled occasionally. The guy who uses hair gel eventually leaves a thick coating of it embedded in the fabric of your headrests. There will be a guy who, one day, doesn't ask before sitting on the hood of your car while waiting for everybody to arrive.

Jump from coworkers sharing the space with the car owner, to complete strangers with no owner in site....you can imagine things will get much worse.

Robo-taxiing an old car solves much of this...although I'd still have a constant lingering fear of one day finding vomit in the car and having to figure out how to deal with it (even if the camera catches the culprit and it is a "covered" expense). I guess there may be a boom in business for regular cleaning/detailing on a schedule, plus an easy way to set up an "emergency" visit to deal with an incident...

I agree. But you should know, a lot of people don’t care. Like all the people you just described - how do you think they feel about their own cars?

There can be some paradox. For example, if you looked at my car right now, you might erroneously think I would be fine with it being a robotaxi. The interior and exterior is dusty and dirty because winter, and mountain roads. But, if you paid attention and knew me at all - you’d see there isn’t a speck of garbage in it, and under all the dirt there isn’t a seat rip or a dent or scratch or stained anything etc…. You’d know I park away from other vehicles all the time. You’d know if a dog gets within 10’ of it I’m prepared to change its mind from climbing up on it, peeing on a tire, or even just wagging its tail against it.

It might be hard to believe, but there are a lot of people who don’t care. It’s just a car. Meant to be used and abused and to have a history. I don’t get it, but I also don’t sell my vehicles. I keep them until the wheels fall off.

 

[Krugerrand]

Correct. I stopped at your opening sentence. If anyone said that to me, the rest of what you said might not get a chance to enter my brain.

"You lack imagination, but that’s ok. Not everyone can think outside of the box or even creatively."

I understand that. I’ll consider putting the truth at the end next time.

 

[Usain]

I might’ve thought so in the past, but now I think a lot of owners will be increasingly inclined to put their vehicles in the robotaxi network as a function of the age of their vehicle.

That is, people will put their old or even not so old Teslas into the network rather than part with them when they buy new Teslas. Putting their previous Tesla in the fleet may enable many to buy a new Tesla.

If older Teslas are needed for robotaxi networks then most owners will just sell them to a robotaxi provider rather than go to the hassle of participating in the network themselves. They will be able to sell for far more than they originally paid.

But I'm a bit of a contrarian on that front. I think the opportunity for old Teslas to participate in a robotaxi network will be limited. The Gen 3 vehicles will be much better suited to the task. So when Tesla can make enough of Gen 3 to meet robotaxi demand, the old Teslas won't be needed much, if at all. (I'm also thinking that there will be larger Gen 3 vehicles for customers who need a big robotaxi. Probably a van.)

 

[Southpasfan]

I have doubts about advertising but am wildly enthusiastic about product placements. The use of widely distributed mockups (i.e. simulators in Stores could be used to demonstrate FSD using actual data from a database that can show driving on a realistically imaged street, highway etc. Those already are ubiquitous in video games. Such a solution could allow formal buyer training, demonstration to prospects and entertaining education to young and not so young gamers.

Those are not so expensive but would instantly eliminate the need for actually operating a car on public roads for a demo. Repeating, that is the norm for aircraft and ships today. Some fo those simulators ar exotically expensive but those have motion. Eliminating motion makes these not much more expensive than those ubiquitous fake Optimi. It also is much easier than devoting sales time and, we find out, recruiting FSD owners to do the demos (at least the Florida Owners group has been asked to prepare to help).

I agree, but (why a "but"), I think there is a distinction between someone all in enough to be training to pilot a ship or an aircraft vs. someone who already thinks they know how to drive. And actually, they do know how to drive.

That's the tough part. I was thinking how I would train someone, and what's interesting is at this point in time is largely three things (1) how to engage, (2) how to disengage, including if the system disengages, and (3) when to anticipate a disengagement, or when to voluntarily disengage.

Maybe add (4) the current limits of the system, and (5) how the system generally "drives."

Considering (1) - (5) are unlike anything a driver who has not had FSD has ever seen, maybe a simulator would work.

It was actually easier when FSD did less things, and was less competent. When it was freeway only it was not far off from basic cruise control.

 

[SOULPEDL]

I understand that. I’ll consider putting the truth at the end next time.

I'm teasing around... nothing personal. Nice to see a direct voice as well.

 

[winfield100]

Interesting idea.

The guy who uses hair gel eventually leaves a thick coating of it embedded in the fabric of your headrests.

OT OT (semi useless kinda factoid)
Macassar oil that "dandies" used in their hair to hold in place, so folks invented "anti macassers".
fancy and not so fancy "towels" placed on the back and arms of chairs to keep the macassar oil away, you know, seatcovers ....

 

[EVWatcher]

Not necessarily best for the mission. I still believe Tesla someday will stop selling vehicles for the TN, or at least part of the volume if not all.

My reason is that Tesla would be get far better utilization than Bob and I would with our pretend rental businesses. Then there's all the others who don't ever want to rent theirs out. That's wasting batteries. I feel this everyday - 2 large packs in the garage doing nothing.

There is ultimately an ideal time for them to switch prioritizing factories and switching to company owned taxis. Obviously there is no need for infinite factories. But ultimately if the capacity of factories to produce EV cars is less than all internal combustion vehicles worldwide then factory and R+D spending still helps with the mission more. That includes planes and ships. Someday those will need to be made electric or some other no fossil fuel tech.

Yes its not ideal you have battery packs sitting in your garage. But eventually that battery back will likely recycled. We are a long way away from having mined all the resources needed to get us to stop using fossil fuels. Having a bunch of early adopters with idle cars isn't measurably harming anything in a meaningful way.

 

[capster]

If older Teslas are needed for robotaxi networks then most owners will just sell them to a robotaxi provider rather than go to the hassle of participating in the network themselves. They will be able to sell for far more than they originally paid.

But I'm a bit of a contrarian on that front. I think the opportunity for old Teslas to participate in a robotaxi network will be limited. The Gen 3 vehicles will be much better suited to the task. So when Tesla can make enough of Gen 3 to meet robotaxi demand, the old Teslas won't be needed much, if at all. (I'm also thinking that there will be larger Gen 3 vehicles for customers who need a big robotaxi. Probably a van.)

Back of the envelope:

There are about 3 trillion vehicle miles travelled annually in the US alone.

Let’s say (generously) a robotaxi does 10x the ~15K miles the average American drives annually or 150,000 miles.

It would take 20 million robotaxis to cover those miles.

One could make a case that not only will the "old Teslas" have an opportunity to drive some of those miles, they could be worn out driving them.

Also, just as there are managerial services that take care of Airbnb’s for property owners, there will likely be third parties on whom Tesla owners can rely to do the legwork.

My intent is not to bandy hypotheticals with you, rather I’m pointing out that there will be a lot nuance as well as surprises in the evolution of the robotaxi business.

There is for some of course value in figuring this business out before others both for those looking to profit and those that will be disrupted.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Someone sent me this today, thought it would brighten up someone's day that the CT is a tank

https://twitter.com/x/status/1772485574751871264

 

[SmokyPeat]

I can tell. But the Nissan clearly got the worse end of the impact.

 

[unk45]

I agree, but (why a "but"), I think there is a distinction between someone all in enough to be training to pilot a ship or an aircraft vs. someone who already thinks they know how to drive. And actually, they do know how to drive.

That's the tough part. I was thinking how I would train someone, and what's interesting is at this point in time is largely three things (1) how to engage, (2) how to disengage, including if the system disengages, and (3) when to anticipate a disengagement, or when to voluntarily disengage.

Maybe add (4) the current limits of the system, and (5) how the system generally "drives."

Considering (1) - (5) are unlike anything a driver who has not had FSD has ever seen, maybe a simulator would work.

It was actually easier when FSD did less things, and was less competent. When it was freeway only it was not far off from basic cruise control.

It’s far more than FSD. From infotainment to windshield wipers controls of a Tesla are unlike others. One can know how to fly a Boeing 747 and be unable to handle a Lear 25. The controls are unlike each other. Tesla is unlike other cars, so careful instruction is desirable, in a simulator is the fast and easy way to transition.

 

[Robertj]

Re FSD pricing options

It is interesting to note Starlink has a number of pricing plans available to consumer users which have changed
dramatically as the product has developed

1 Basic plan for homeowner
2 Throttled plan approx 50 % of 1 above
3 Mobile plan for coastal boaties / mobile homes , more expensive that 1 above
4 Offshore plan volume related more expensive than all above

Then commercially there are a number of different plans
1 Ships
2 Airlines
3 Country /Miitary

I think that overtime FSD will develop different pricing “rental “ regimes and purchase will not be an option

 

[jerry33]

It’s far more than FSD. From infotainment to windshield wipers controls of a Tesla are unlike others. One can know how to fly a Boeing 747 and be unable to handle a Lear 25. The controls are unlike each other. Tesla is unlike other cars, so careful instruction is desirable, in a simulator is the fast and easy way to transition.

I recall the driving simulators in high school. They were a joke, not even close to driving an actual car. You had a film of a street, a steering wheel pedals and a gear shift. However, nothing was connected to anything.