Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[CaliBear1]

Dodger IS genuine long term buy and hold investor, he never advocated short term trading strategies.

So if you are making the claim that in 5 years time TSLA at the current share price is bad investment, make that explicit.

Genuine long term buy and hold investors are immune to FUD, and I can see why those intending to spread FUD find that annoying.

FTFY!

 

[Usain]

Just got FSD 12.3.2.1 and took it out for a spin.

It is definitely another improvement over 12.3.0. Even smoother and more confident. There is still one spot where it fails to enter the left turn lane and I have to disengage. Not perfect, but looking really, really good.

The thing I love is the new autopark on Hardware 4. It is far, far better than the old version I used to have on my old MY with Hardware 3 and ultrasonics. I'm very happy with vision-only right now.

Can't wait for ASS!

 

[Usain]

Full autonomy will happen only in the context of Tesla robotaxis or private vehicles that are temporarily part of the robotaxi fleet. I see zero chance of Tesla marketing a fully autonomous solution to Tesla buyers in the 2026-2027 timeframe even if they have already started rolling out robotaxis.

I disagree. I'm pretty confident that by 2027, you will be able to nap while the car drives to your destination.

FSD will stand for "Full Sleeping and Dreaming".

 

[Kenypowa]

This has the best intro I have ever seen.

Very positive review from MKBHD and Doug Demuro.

 

[Discoducky]

Can discuss in the FSD thread, but where is this exactly? Maybe a Google maps link?

There is still one spot where it fails to enter the left turn lane and I have to disengage.

 

[Captkerosene]

I think the only people buying FSD are shareholders and extreme tech enthusiasts. The next big thing is supposed to be the $25k car, and people shopping in the $25k range are likely not paying an extra $12k for a software option lol.

I don’t think even people shopping in the $40k range are paying that, they have budgets and that’s why they’re in the <$40k range. A $12k software option on a $40k car makes Porsche’s option pricing look downright reasonable.

It's an option on full autonomy, in which case it's cheap.

 

[AndrewZ]

It's an option on full autonomy, in which case it's cheap.

I'm not sure that changes the affordability equation until people can secure more financing based upon projected robotaxi revenue like it's a business plan

Who knows, maybe that's in the works directly from Tesla. But then Tesla might not even need to sell the cars and split the profit, just keep them internally and deploy them as an branded fleet of robotaxis constantly buzzing around. Individual vehicle ownership largely becomes a thing of the past, people just summon a robotaxi when they need to go somewhere.

 

[Ellec]

Impressive ramp, but it looks like it has mostly plateaued...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1773848700038586420

I think next Gen + a few more factories will break that plateau.

 

[Dutchie]

I like this guy.

 

[Singuy]

If they let me watch a movie or do work without the wheel or eye-tracking nag now on the highway, I would take the responsibility on tomorrow. Disengagements have been so rare on the highway for so long, the reason FSD is dangerous is because of the nags. Otherwise, it's safe on the highway to do these tasks. I never said "take a nap" on purpose. I agree that might be next decade.

Nag have been substantially reduced with v12.

 

[winfield100]

single data point
stopped by Fort Myers, Florida, USA service center
1) foundation model CT parked next to MY. it's a bit larger than I need but impressive(pictures later)
2) i think Highland 3 inside
3) chatted with 10+ buyers about buying "you're going to love it, First time?..." i take 2,500 - 4,000 mile trips a lot, no probs, etc"
4) vis-a-vis advertising, 3 bought because relatives absolutely loving their Tesla's. (word of mouth point source direct free advertising of growing owners base), 2 two were repeat buyers same model, but newer, few first timers, most were excited.
5) steady constant traffic in buying/receiving new vehicles.
6) service consultant commented I should help as sales were "kinda slammed" when I casually offered
7) HODL

 

[aubreymcfato]

I find it quite surprising that, after all, Fremont is still the major contributor to Tesla in terms of production (we miss the Q124 datapoint, it'll arrive on Monday):

(thanks @piloly for the chart)
Berlin and Texas are disappointing a little, see how bad they compare to Shanghai...

 

[winfield100]

single data point
stopped by Fort Myers, Florida, USA service center
1) foundation model CT parked next to MY. it's a bit larger than I need but impressive(pictures later)
2) i think Highland 3 inside
3) chatted with 10+ buyers about buying "you're going to love it, First time?..." i take 2,500 - 4,000 mile trips a lot, no probs, etc"
4) vis-a-vis advertising, 3 bought because relatives absolutely loving their Tesla's. (word of mouth point source direct free advertising of growing owners base), 2 two were repeat buyers same model, but newer, few first timers, most were excited.
5) steady constant traffic in buying/receiving new vehicles.
6) service consultant commented I should help as sales were "kinda slammed" when I casually offered
7) HODL

Foundation series CT (Tiny writing on side)

 

[hobbes]

I’m on vacation in southern France, just saw this on the road, tried to follow it to get better pics but it escaped into a gated community .. 85% sure this is not a 3 Highland but a Y judging from the size.

 

[mongo]

I’m on vacation in southern France, just saw this on the road, tried to follow it to get better pics but it escaped into a gated community .. 85% sure this is not a 3 Highland but a Y judging from the size.

View attachment 1033584

Hard to say from that pic, but rear glass says 3 (no seam for liftgate and small clear area).

 

[ThisStockGood]

I’m on vacation in southern France, just saw this on the road, tried to follow it to get better pics but it escaped into a gated community .. 85% sure this is not a 3 Highland but a Y judging from the size.

View attachment 1033584

The slightly tilted angle makes it look bigger than it is. Not to be a bummer, but I do believe this is a Model 3.

 

[DarkandStormy]

It's an option on full autonomy, in which case it's cheap.

Except...it's a level 2 ADAS and not fully autonomous.

 

[hobbes]

The slightly tilted angle makes it look bigger than it is. Not to be a bummer, but I do believe this is a Model 3.

Saw it on a flat road before I took that picture…

 

[mongo]

I even pointed out two which distinctly have not, Ferrari and Porsche.

Ferrari sold less than 14k cars in 2023. (3 days of Tesla sales)
Porchse sold 320k (2 months of Tesla sales)
Tesla is aiming for 2 million, things are different at volume and when a company is growing.

Since you are positive I am wrong then you might explain why so many companies and people are still using coal to generate power and heat. Just because something si demonstrably factually incorrect does not mean that many people manage to be convinced that is is really a good thing. Just think of all the people with vested interests to promote coal, oil etc.

Because they don't care about the source, they care about the product. And, if they do care about the source, they are likely not in a position to directly effect change.
Coal and oil are vehicles for jobs/ money. Would roughnecks switch to the comparatively risk free career of installing solar if it paid an equivalent amount?

General Advertising is the same. Once it was the only way, before the internet, before direct marketing. Back then there was newspaper, then radio the Television. Television generated the advertising business as it still exists. General Advertising is the ICE equivalent. "Everyone"
knows it's what to do because 'everyone does it'. That is your argument.

Sure, doing it just because people do it is not a great rationale. However, that is not the only reason for blanket advertising.
Less than 10% of US households do not have a car. If Tesla vehicles are actually a good choice to own (whether new or used, purchased or leased), then a general 'awareness of existence' advertising campaign might not be unreasonable as the TAM is roughly the entire population (with potential carve outs for car unfriendly metropolitan areas). That to me is different than reminding people who already know about Tesla about Tesla or meeting some ad spend budget target.

 

[FastEddieB]

I just ran across this in a Facebook Model 3 group:

Any idea who this might be going out to? I’d love a 30-day trial - might even justify yet another road trip,