Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Todd Burch]

LiDAR, even a weak one, might be a necessity for FSD as a backup sensor to vision.

Doesn’t the Tesla vision only solution still go temporarily blind in direct sunlight at certain angles? Something that a lidar sensor wouldn’t be impacted by?

The worst I have seen with sun angle recently is that the car will slow down by 5mph when the sun angle is bad. Haven’t seen any disengagements lately.

(Also, what do we human drivers do when blinded? I certainly do not disengage, and a camera’s tolerance for pain is higher than my own).

 

[cliff harris]

I know the date but...
New Model 3 Performance/Ludicrous unveil imminent!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1774689216490020878

Actually might be a thing?

 

[JusRelax]

Well, we had a nice run, but I think the competition is finally coming. SpaceX finally has some real competition, so I figure Tesla's competition must be coming soon as well. I've never heard of Space Y before, but they're obviously a completely legit company that wasn't made up for April Fool's:

https://www.groupon.com/deals/gl-gr...ferral&utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=deal_ita

 

[CorneliusXX]

BYD 300k EV sales according to twitter. Not sure if this is April fools.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1774758179886231878

Only other source I can find is from a Chinese EV site where eyeballing their last 3 months BEV sales looks about right with the tweet
BYD sells 302,459 NEVs in Mar, 2nd-highest on record

 

[DarkandStormy]

BYD 300k EV sales according to twitter. Not sure if this is April fools.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1774758179886231878

Only other source I can find is from a Chinese EV site where eyeballing their last 3 months BEV sales looks about right with the tweet
BYD sells 302,459 NEVs in Mar, 2nd-highest on record

View attachment 1034184

Why are PHEVs not considered EVs?

But yes, I think that ~300k figure is correct. BYD's sales are much more seasonal, but they face the same headwinds as Tesla in China. I believe they recently cut their full year forecast to 20% NEV growth, so about 3.6m total vehicles. Assuming a 50/50 split on BEVs vs PHEVs that would be about 1.8m BEVs.

Troy's latest update is for Tesla to deliver 1.86m BEVs in 2024.

The race for the full year title could be close.

 

[Xd85]

premarket OT. This is from my HSA account management page. Free ads?

 

[growler23]

I did some driving this weekend in my SO's 2022 Model Y on FSD 12.3.1. No major issues over a ride including some highway and some neighborhood driving. It smoothly passed cars in the passing lane on the highway (decision driven by FSD) and it handled some rare unexpected situations in the neighborhood.
My feel of this (and it is feel, like I am trying to ascertain the personality of a hidden intelligence driving the car) is that FSD is a newly awakened baby, born fairly capable but grabbing all the information it can from all directions to grow as fast as possible.
This makes me think, like several here, that the choice to go wide release right now is only somewhat to show off the current state (say 40%), and moreso (60%) to encourage a 'metric crap-ton' of data gathering, which will accelerate the learning growth even more.
So listen well, Tesla Citizens. Get out there, swipe that stalk down, and Do Your Part!!!
** Edit: Just got 12.3.3 on my own Model Y. Will try out soon. Updates coming fast and furious now **

 

[cab]

I did some driving this weekend in my SO's 2022 Model Y on FSD 12.3.1. No major issues over a ride including some highway and some neighborhood driving. It smoothly passed cars in the passing lane on the highway (decision driven by FSD) and it handled some rare unexpected situations in the neighborhood.
My feel of this (and it is feel, like I am trying to ascertain the personality of a hidden intelligence driving the car) is that FSD is a newly awakened baby, born fairly capable but grabbing all the information it can from all directions to grow as fast as possible.
This makes me think, like several here, that the choice to go wide release right now is only somewhat to show off the current state (say 40%), and moreso (60%) to encourage a 'metric crap-ton' of data gathering, which will accelerate the learning growth even more.
So listen well, Tesla Citizens. Get out there, swipe that stalk down, and Do Your Part!!!
** Edit: Just got 12.3.3 on my own Model Y. Will try out soon. Updates coming fast and furious now **

Given that Elon indicated they are no longer compute constrained, this would seem to make sense.

 

[GOVA]

Not sure on Legal but I am sure this sudden move is a way to get some of that deferred FSD revenue to pad a particularly bad quarter. No Zach, no pushback.

Where is your data bud? You requested it from others who question the other 'oracle'
Time to sell, ah?

 

[Zaddy Daddy]

reminder, Troy will adjust his estimates Tue-Wed. Stay tuned.

Not sure how valuable estimates are if they change all the time as new information comes out, why not just wait on Tesla releasing the figures?

Lol, Troy is a joke.

So embarrasing for you people.

What's Troy's value? How about showing the downtrend in deliveries like a month before anyone else?

Sure his "initial" prediction isn't close (nor is anyone else's), but you can an update closer to the truth before anyone else. That has value to some people.

Or maybe you would have liked to take your blinders off 2nd half of 2022 when demand was actually tanking? Troy had that info.

Some people probably would have preferred not to lose 50-70% of their account values during that period. They probably would have made some more conservative decisions if they had been watching this graph in real time.

To try to put down Troy's work as it if contributes nothing just makes you look like fools.

 

[EVMeister]

Let's stop the Troy bashing...

At least until tomorrow, when it may (or may not) be justified.

 

[Krugerrand]

Why are PHEVs not considered EVs?

Why are bearcats not considered ursidae or felidae?

 

[2daMoon]

I think that short-term traders enjoy having charts like that to look back on with 20-20 hindsight in order to better understand how they lost so much money when they sold.

Long-term traders look at them and reminisce about those times when everybody got so grumpy, just before the SP took off, once more.

HODL

 

[DarkandStormy]

Model Y price increase is now in effect.

Of course, estimated delivery time still shows March.

 

[FreqFlyer]

Its April 1, will not be able to believe any, "news" today.

 

[winfield100]

Why are PHEVs not considered EVs?

Do they have a fossil fuel engine?
Yes or No
If Yes, they are _not_ an EV,
==>>by definition <<==.
(P)HEV (P)lug in =>HYBRID<= (meaning HYBRID)
EV _ELECTRIC_

This is quite simple to understand so I'm perplexed at the question after decades.
I also understand the controlled frustration of some of my professors at questions from various students long, long ago after simple and simpler answers

sloppy and imprecise thinkers may defer for various reasons, but that still does not make them correct

oops, just saw Krugerands reply,
@unk45
prob Stutz bearcat for the oldsters
this msg will self destruct

 

[unk45]

Why are bearcats not considered ursidae or felidae?

Because they are the only species in Articus and is most commonly called Binturong. I saw one in captivity in Northern Laos near, but not in, junglelike area, near Luang Prabang. One of the foreigners called it a bearcat, the first and only time i had heard that. This quite unusual animal was intriguing, so I never forgot it. On the other hand Luang Prabang was unforgettable too.

Is this related to Tesla, or just a reference to either Stutz or Lenco, both have had vehicles with that name? None ever have been PHEV nor EV, nor even remotely efficient in petrol consumption.

 

[Krugerrand]

Because they are the only species in Articus and is most commonly called Binturong. I saw one in captivity in Northern Laos near, but not in, junglelike area, near Luang Prabang. One of the foreigners called it a bearcat, the first and only time i had heard that. This quite unusual animal was intriguing, so I never forgot it. On the other hand Luang Prabang was unforgettable too.

Is this related to Tesla, or just a reference to either Stutz or Lenco, both have had vehicles with that name? None ever have been PHEV nor EV, nor even remotely efficient in petrol consumption.

It was for the imprecise thinker who felt a PHEV should be listed as an EV. A PHEV is neither an EV nor an ICE just as a bearcat is neither a bear nor a cat.

 

[GhostSkater]

Well, due to what I’ve seen I had to sell a little more

Oh, nothing to do with Tesla, what I saw was my bank account almost empty, so had to do it before P&D, if it goes down I would have to sell more, if it goes up, less harm done now than waiting

Hurts to do it, but no way around, hopefully in the coming months I will be in a position to buy multiples of what I had to sell in this uncertain period

 

[Ellec]

So embarrasing for you people.

What's Troy's value? How about showing the downtrend in deliveries like a month before anyone else?

View attachment 1034189

Sure his "initial" prediction isn't close (nor is anyone else's), but you can an update closer to the truth before anyone else. That has value to some people.

Or maybe you would have liked to take your blinders off 2nd half of 2022 when demand was actually tanking? Troy had that info.

View attachment 1034190

Some people probably would have preferred not to lose 50-70% of their account values during that period. They probably would have made some more conservative decisions if they had been watching this graph in real time.

To try to put down Troy's work as it if contributes nothing just makes you look like fools.

Figures aren't out yet though, so no one knows if he was accurate or not. As I said his work is valuable as a tracker/informed guesstimate but I would never make a trade based solely on his data.