Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Unpilot]

Is P&D out yet? Pre-market is looking poopy

 

[y_naught]

FYI, my forecasts have never been over and never change within the quarter, and if people would take mine they’d always be pleasantly surprised and happy when all was said and done. 383,000 in the bag.

Barely. Tesla Vehicle Production & Deliveries and Date for Financial Results & Webcast for First Quarter 2024

 

[scaesare]

As usual with a quarter freshly in the rear view mirror, expectations going forward are what will likely drive valuations.

My expectation is that more and more people will come around to what Elon has been saying for years now: autonomy is what will determine whether Tesla is "worth a lot of money or basically zero" (his words not mine). And this shift will probably be borne out of necessity, because I see interest rates staying structurally high and maybe only coming down to the mid 3%s when the Fed finishes cutting -- and treasury yields might stay higher for significantly longer.

Next year, depending upon implementation, it will become even more challenging to qualify for the Inflation Reduction Act tax incentives as vehicles will be excluded if their batteries contain minerals from foreign entities of concern along with ratcheting up the % that needs to be sourced from free trade countries.

So next year you have interest rates still in the 4%s +, maybe even a chance we see zero rate cuts this year, then potentially more vehicles losing half of or the full $7500 credit.


For these reasons and others (competition in China, wages increasing, etc) I think there will be continued pressure on margins and how quickly that turns around seemingly depends upon belief around how big of an impact will be made through further FSD monetization.

I'm probably on an island here, but I'm a bit of the opinion that autonomy and EV's are somewhat tangential. No doubt there's more control and precision for motor modulation. but the real critical aspects of autonomy are object detection/recognition, path planning, decision making, and control outputs. Those control outputs can be to the electric steering and braking system installed on an EV or an ICE. (Indeed, Tesla has used 3rd party components other auto manufacturers use). The significant difference would be ICE throttle vs motor/inverter control. But adaptive cruise control demonstrates that managing an ICE throttle is not an issue.

So, while autonomy is likely very valuable (for some value of "very"), its value is not tied to an EV. Its value is in the convenience to the driver (of any vehicle type). In contrast, EV's have very different set of value propositions: Fuel costs, driving dynamics, maintenance costs, spaciousness, and avoiding environmental catastrophe and the resultant collapse of civilization and/or existential crisis. The value of the two are in entirely separate strata, in my opinion.

Now don't get me wrong, while I think autonomy is a worthwhile pursuing, I kinda wish Elon had not so strongly tied it to electric vehicle development. I think it's somewhat of a distraction that's had a bit of the effect of diluting the value of the vehicle. Tesla has made an incredibly compelling alternative to ICE's, revolutionized manufacturing to drive cost/price down, maximized safety, introduced some significant advancements in design and build not seen in the auto industry in nearly 100 years, all the while building out an incredible charging infrastructure. In the meantime, people are fidgety about the company performance over questions as to when they'll be able to watch the Kardashians on their phone during their commute.

The stock should be at several times its current price right now, and while there are no doubt many factors why it's not, I suspect the FSD stuff is one.

 

[bballshinobi]

Is P&D out yet? Pre-market is looking poopy

387k

 

[aubreymcfato]

uh, bad.

 

[ThisStockGood]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1775146866792968311

BREAKING: Tesla delivered 386,783 vehicles in Q1. Wall St was expecting ~431k. Total Q1 production was 433,371.Tesla: "Decline in volumes was partially due to the early phase of the production ramp of the updated Model 3 at our Fremont factory and factory shutdowns resulting from shipping diversions caused by the Red Sea conflict and an arson attack at Gigafactory Berlin."Tesla also reported record Megapack installations for the first time on a delivery report: 4,053 MW

 

[replicant]

-6.37% in pre-market

 

[CitizenKane]

I'm definitely in the minority here and don't understand the massive appeal others state of a robotaxi fleet for me. I probably just don't get it.

Is having a basic EV such a bad thing so I don't have to sit in someone else's car or wait for a taxi to arrive at my location? I think the overall American public likes to have 'control' and own a car, even a cheap one to get from A->B is not something they will deviate in large numbers. My partner doesn't even like the basic cruise control or any automation (I rightly/wrongly assume the general female population are not high adopters of those features).

Also, isn't labor with Uber/gig economy cheap due to low pay/benefits of the drivers? Large robo-taxi fleets will still need to be charged, maintenance, cleaning, repairs (Hertz example).

I suppose being driven in a robo-taxi when one can go to sleep in the back seat is nice for a very long commute/drive is nice, but is that soon or would I bother if I don't have a long commute?

Does the math work where someone pays $30k-$40k for a Tesla, spends another $12k for FSD, and just robo-taxi it out with all the maintenance/repairs/cost of it to make some bucks drivng others around?

If I don't need to park, nor a garage, insurance, service, changing to winter tires, cleaning etc, and can order a car to take me (and family/friends) from and to wherever at any time and can sleep, watch a movie, be drunk etc and can do this at a cost that is lower than that of owning and driving my own car and without any need to finance it, it seems an obviously more appealing alternative to me.

I don´t question there would be demand for a robotaxi but the obstacles of getting a working service in place anytime soon seem underestimated to me. But good enough if a lot of people are willing to pay for the convenience of FSD. Will be very interesting to see how many of those people who get to try it out for free are converted into subscribers.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Well you are modeling so the good news there is that when something goes off kilter you can look and see why. I would say that most Uber profits are in just a few cities. Really less than 20. Actually I meant revenues but lets assume a relationship. Waymo will be there by the time Tesla is doing robotaxis. I'll go out and say I think Waymo will make a billion in Robotaxi profit before Tesla.

I think lots of people would like a FSD suite on a car to drive them in their car and I think software sales could be very nice indeed. Just not sold on the whole taas thing.

I question the amount of margin people expect on autonomous TAAS, but I do not question autonomous TAAS. If you have autonomy you will have large-scale TAAS, because it effectively creates awesome public transportation and vehicle rental. I think it would be likely to wipe out the lower end of the vehicle market in urban areas and reduce ownership in other sections of the market.

Vehicle ownership at the lower end of the market is high cost, low quality and risky. TAAS with autonomous vehicles removes risk and improves quality.
Also, expect employers to offer free ride-share commuting, for example, removing a large motivation for vehicle ownership.

 

[Usain]

The people who think car ownership will end are on the opposite end of the extreme of those that think there's no market for robo-taxi. Like most things in the world, the truth is in the middle. There's a market in big cities and it would generate a ton of revenue, but in the US, people will still own cars, especially outside of large cities.

Also, the younger generation isn't all that excited about driving. While most of us couldn't wait to get a driver's license, many kids today see driving as a chore. They are used to being driven and they like it that way. Some of my daughter's friends are in college and they still haven't bothered to get a license.

 

[Knightshade]

I guess everyone can celebrate Troys # being off, right?

Especially weird they largely blame the bad #s on factory shutdowns, and yet production was almost 50,000 cars above deliveries.

Anybody willing to admit demand concern (at anything near current pricing) is a thing now?

 

[CreativeName]

Most importantly, how did Troy do?

 

[scaesare]

Security cameras have an auto-iris to deal with the sun by limiting the amount of light that gets in. I'm sure Tesla cameras do the same. No need for a physical shade

Hmm.. certainly not all.. the ones I've installed (Axis), have a fixed iris. Perhaps some models do, but I think many of the ones in similar form factor to the car(minus the enclosure) simply have electronic gain control.

The cams in the car are much like a webcam. Those don't have a mechanical iris either.

 

[unk45]

WRONG, here is a link to one study, "On average, owners of the Nissan Leaf battery-electric car cover 629 miles a month, while those who drive the Chevrolet Volt range-extended electric car go 60 percent further, logging 1,012 miles." The second link found that 82% of the Volt's total miles were all electric. Chevy Volt Owners Drive More Electric Miles Than Nissan Leaf Drivers: Why? or Chevy Volt, Nissan Leaf go nearly the same all-electric miles a year - Autoblog

No not WRONG as you so adamantly say. My point is that 100% of Leaf miles are electric.
Volt drivers could have chosen an EV rather than a PHEV, but they did not. It is good, if true that 82% of Volt miles are on electric. The three Volt drivers I knew all used their cars for short local commutes, well within the range of a Leaf. I have not idea at all about survey results accurate or not.

 

[phantasms]

I guess everyone can celebrate Troys # being off, right?

Especially weird they largely blame the bad #s on factory shutdowns, and yet production was almost 50,000 cars above deliveries.

Anybody willing to admit demand concern (at anything near current pricing) is a thing now?

 

[cab]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1775146866792968311

BREAKING: Tesla delivered 386,783 vehicles in Q1. Wall St was expecting ~431k. Total Q1 production was 433,371.Tesla: "Decline in volumes was partially due to the early phase of the production ramp of the updated Model 3 at our Fremont factory and factory shutdowns resulting from shipping diversions caused by the Red Sea conflict and an arson attack at Gigafactory Berlin."Tesla also reported record Megapack installations for the first time on a delivery report: 4,053 MW

Did the cars actually FALL into the Red Sea? Ouch...

 

[Drax7]

Most importantly, how did Troy do?

Who cares

 

[geometro]

wow... that is horrible. I did not expect anything less than 415k, given the incentives and especially since production was reasonable (seems largely unaffected by Red Sea and other issues).

 

[DarkandStormy]

I guess everyone can celebrate Troys # being off, right?

Especially weird they largely blame the bad #s on factory shutdowns, and yet production was almost 50,000 cars above deliveries.

Anybody willing to admit demand concern (at anything near current pricing) is a thing now?

It's been a concern since late 2022 for those paying attention.

I don't know how anyone thinks this is anything other than a disaster right now.

 

[mongo]

I guess everyone can celebrate Troys # being off, right?

Especially weird they largely blame the bad #s on factory shutdowns, and yet production was almost 50,000 cars above deliveries.

Anybody willing to admit demand concern (at anything near current pricing) is a thing now?

Largely???
How about partially.

Decline in volumes was partially due to the early phase of the production ramp of the updated Model 3 at our Fremont factory and factory shutdowns resulting from shipping diversions caused by the Red Sea conflict and an arson attack at Gigafactory Berlin.

If Tesla were concerned about demand they would not have boosted inventory (now at 28 days calculated). Loss of production earlier in the quarter leads to move in transit as they catch up later in the quarter (theoretically).