Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Knightshade]

I don't think Tesla believes demand is a concern as people don't usually take deliveries in the Winter. They only did in 2022 in which deliveries were higher than production is because people were desperate due to chip shortages hitting all car makers. Typically production is way over deliveries Q1 of most years.

Why would deliveries also be down- by a lot- from Q1 2023 to Q1 2024 then?

And Q 2021 (skipping 22 since you think it's an outlier) we saw deliveries higher than production.

 

[2daMoon]

Sold 1000 at 165. I normally don't do short trades and am really bad at it but to me it seems unlikely that the stock would bounce back quickly.

Maybe the big dogs who were patiently waiting to shake out the weak hands will send you a "Thank You" card.

 

[juanmedina]

Why would deliveries also be down- by a lot- from Q1 2023 to Q1 2024 then?

And Q 2021 (skipping 22 since you think it's an outlier) we saw deliveries higher than production.

It is insane to me that even the new $7500 incentive which now actually lowers the car payment didn't help.

 

[Drax7]

You do realize if they did, in fact, deliver 4k CTs in Q1 that means they only delivered 13k S&X combined. So much for those refreshes jump starting sales of those models.

Why doesn't Tesla break out sales by model? I'm not aware of any other auto company lumping in sales quite like Tesla does. So much for transparency.

Yes, break it down by colors too. Like how many reds ones.

 

[Usain]

Stuart Little: “Every cloud has a silver lining”.

I think the silver lining here is that the stock hasn't completely tanked. If you told me yesterday that the number was going to be this bad I would say we would trade in the 130's.

Of course that could still happen, but it's entirely possible that the worst is behind us.

 

[Buckminster]

Elon thinks poor deliveries is down to some squatters in Chicago. Did I do the April fools thing good?

 

[Huskyf]

Troy did very well. I never understood the anti-Troy vibe on this forum.
For anyone that truly believes in the long term outcome, this is a buying opportunity.

No because is underestimated the production number ok for delivery

 

[sunwarriors]

Sorry, not buying that wishful story either. My wife is a teacher in an urban High School. The kids may not have money but they aspire to own a car, and yes, some of them aspire to own a Tesla.

I think the no car wants/claim is like the whole suburbs are dying claim. They just don't need a car so they live without one. I didn't have one for most of college neither because I lived on campus and it's another hassle to deal with if I had one.

America is just not convenient without a car, and for women, public transport /taxis/uber is more dangerous (in general).

 

[Singuy]

Why would deliveries also be down- by a lot- from Q1 2023 to Q1 2024 then?

And Q 2021 (skipping 22 since you think it's an outlier) we saw deliveries higher than production.

Global chip shortage lasted from 2020-2023. Q1 2023 is the tail end of it when the competition still had inventory issues and high market adjustment prices. Tesla doesn't operate in a vacuum. People were more willing to take deliveries of whatever is available throughout all this time. We finally have inventory relief from all major car makers 2H of 2023. This is also when we see Tesla' inventory slowly creeping up as well.

 

[Huskyf]

Good luck with timing the market. I've invested in the company for the long term. I think I'm right.

same for me patience ! Close this Q1 we are now in Q2 let's go !

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Please do not make a joke out of this.

Some here may not know I’m an ordained Pastafarian minister, and I take these things very seriously.

That Colander on your head is not fooling anyone!

 

[DarkandStormy]

Yes, break it down by colors too. Like how many reds ones.

Instead of trolling you could answer why you think Tesla is the only auto company that does not break out sales by model.

 

[Pezpunk]

I keep being astonished by the number of people around me buying ICE cars at prices far above Tesla's. They don't trust anything about Tesla because all they hear from the mainstream media and its CEO has very little to do about its products, its prices, its mission, etc.

The only people in my circles considering Teslas are the richest and youngest, but there are far too few of them to support Tesla's ambition. The last few times I visited showrooms, the vast majority of visitors were very high income, and about between 20 and 30 y-o. The last sales rep I talked too kept telling me about the great discounts they have, with 200 new Teslas sitting in a nearby parking, about 2 weeks ago.

The young and rich segment is pretty limited (I'm 38, have no car but over 15,000 TSL shares). Few of my friends and colleagues can afford a Tesla but the old people are proud of their ICE or stupid hybrids. Here in France, new car buyers are 55 y-o on average and they keep getting older…

Tesla is still good at word-of-mouth on some social networks, but very, very words are reaching the hears of Teslas's potential buyers. It's worrying.

The Tesla brand has become completely toxic and a total non-starter for half of Americans, and that is 100% entirely Elon's fault. The effects of that are now being reflected rather severely in terms of demand.

I identified this specifically as the #1 biggest risk to Tesla's brand several years ago, although many (not all) of my posts expressing that opinion were deleted as too political.

Anyway, i was absolutely right.

Fair warning to Tesla itself, and anyone still holding shares. This demand problem will not cease as long as Elon is still the CEO. It's not about price or competition. You may not like it, but that is the unpleasant truth.

 

[Usain]

Re robotaxis. 12.3.3 is great but this time of the year with road work etc we have been in a number of situations that involved flag people. Lots of hand signals, directing etc. I just disable FSD bad all is well. But I’m curious how much of a challenge this will be for FSD and the robotaxi dream. Thoughts?

Not hard at all. Tesla has the ability to gather all the training data it needs for that.

Probably, 12.3.3 already has some ability to handle hand signals and flag people. But I suspect that Tesla hasn't trained specifically for it yet. They will though.

 

[CitizenKane]

Maybe the big dogs who were patiently waiting to shake out the weak hands will send you a "Thank You" card.

I doubt it, Thiose infidels are neither supported by Thor nor Pastafari.

 

[FreqFlyer]

Global chip shortage lasted from 2020-2023. Q1 2023 is the tail end of it when the competition still had inventory issues and high market adjustment prices. Tesla doesn't operate in a vacuum. People were more willing to take deliveries of whatever is available throughout all this time. We finally have inventory relief from all major car makers 2H of 2023.

Yes, the dealer's lots are full again and bad habits of offering dealer incentives are already in full swing.

I think many here are thinking its 5 years ago when Tesla was a new novelty. Tesla is bordering on mainstream now, which is an achievement. Now Tesla must deal with mainstream problems. Keeping a product line that is updated and fresh or risk not being the "shining new thing".

 

[Musskiah]

Tesla told us they were going to flatten the delivery curve and increase inventories. Some of you act so surprised and want this to translate into a demand issue. Perhaps let's take a breath and realize the average days in inventory was 71 in Dec 2023. Tesla at 28 is still on the long tail.

SOURCE: New-Vehicle Inventory Surpasses 2.5 Million Units, 71 Days' Supply - Cox Automotive Inc.

Or just continue to freak out and I'll be over here applauding Elon for his masterful move to pad the inventories in a down Q to lure in a few more shorts before the obvious explosion in autonomy.

In other news...how 'bout the Megapack numbers finally getting a shout out on the P&D?

To anyone selling, I thank you good people for the stock sale

 

[Knightshade]

Global chip shortage lasted from 2020-2023. Q1 2023 is the tail end of it when the competition still had inventory issues and high market adjustment prices. Tesla doesn't operate in a vacuum. People were more willing to take deliveries of whatever is available throughout all this time. We finally have inventory relief from all major car makers 2H of 2023. This is also when we see Tesla' inventory slowly creeping up as well.

But car sales, overall, seem to be up like 3 percent in 2024 YoY.

Teslas are down- by quite a bit we now know. Despite a record amount of incentives thrown at sales this quarter (FUSC and FSD transfers, 10k free charging miles, 1k CT order discounts, threat of an EOQ price hike, etc)

So your explanation still doesn't seem to line up with the data that this is just Tesla following the industry?

 

[uscbucsfan]

So much for those refreshes jump starting sales of those models.

There was no refresh. It's something that Teslascope has been wrong about for almost 3 Quarters.

edit: I guess you were talking about the 2020/2021 ones, I thought you meant the latest rumored one.

 

[2daMoon]

Can't this all be done with an Uber? I'm not comparing someone having a vehicle at all in a dense city (and I've lived in one), but about the robo-taxi owner who wants to replace their car and drive others around while dumping $30k-$40k + $12k for FSD just to drive you around.

Charging isn't cheap, in say San Francisco assuming you're using public charging and peak rates are well over $0.80/kWh in San Diego. Add in cleaning, vandalism, repair cost, just beaten to crap taxis and the math doesn't sound great to me.

You do understand that when talking about "Robotaxi" there is no driver to pay for, right?

So, no, you cannot get a discount from Uber for the cost of a driver. That cost must be included in the fare. This will be the most significant advantage in cost reduction that Robotaxi will bring.

All the other ancillary costs you listed would apply to both Uber(BEV) and Robotaxi.