Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Musskiah]

From 12300 to 22777 at GigaTexas - 86% increase in employees from EOY 2022 to EOY 2023.

Loading…

www.expressnews.com

Cybertruck had capacity to produce 125k+ vehicles way back in October, 2023.

Tesla announces Cybertruck deliveries in November, claims 125,000 production capacity

Tesla has announced that Cybertruck deliveries will start in November and weirdly claims to have already deployed production capacity for...

electrek.co

The sky is falling!!!!!!!! Demand issues!!!!!!!
(Takes a deep rip of hopium. Spritzes sweet sweet Burnt Hair. Remembers that Elon is a 4D Chess Master who chuckles as the plebs on Wall Street play checkers.)

 

[Snerruc]

Yes, the dealer's lots are full again and bad habits of offering dealer incentives are already in full swing.

I think many here are thinking its 5 years ago when Tesla was a new novelty. Tesla is bordering on mainstream now, which is an achievement. Now Tesla must deal with mainstream problems. Keeping a product line that is updated and fresh or risk not being the "shining new thing".

I agree. I’ve pointed out a couple of things that have kept me on the sidelines and even considering Rivian. The demand levers Tesla pulled last quarter obviously didn’t work. Perhaps they should try new ones, including buying down interest as they once did. I bought both of mine partially because of that. Also, a lot of people don’t like to always be running into twins to their car. My town is a sea of white Ys. Then there is the shooting themselves in the foot with yokes, removing uss when the software wasn’t ready, and other times they have jumped on something without all parts of it being ready. I’m sure Tesla is already looking at things and will figure it out. Conquest sales are hard.

 

[Krugerrand]

My fear is Tesla won't give much guidance in the ER. A further lack of info after these numbers could breed fear and doubt in the market which could drive TSLA down even further.

It's certainly going to be an interesting ER this month, no two ways about it.

Fear with numbers and details. Fear without numbers and details. It’s always fear driving people. Maybe ask yourself why you’re so afraid all the time. You (specifically). You (generally). Once you realize where the fear comes from, only then can you put it aside and live free of it. Thank Baby Jesus Elon is fearless.

 

[M42 Fan]

I wonder how many people are waiting for the refreshed Y, especially after seeing the refreshed 3.

I, for one, am in the market for a vehicle and want a Y but am waiting for the refresh.

 

[ggies07]

And you're going to focus on one man who says things you don't like rather than owning one of the best EVs out there. And supporting the 100s of thousands of workers at Tesla making the magic happen? I think that's quite sad.

And I wonder how many employees actually agree with all of Elon's personal (and very radical) opinions...maybe a small percentage? That's it I bet.

 

[mtndrew1]

The point of my post is that Elon’s antics haven’t removed the likelihood of you using the Supercharger network.
That is not consistent with you not willing to buy another Tesla.
Have you considered that keeping to use the supercharger network may be more profitable to Tesla (over the lifetime of your new car) than actually buying a new car (maybe not for you as you don’t need the Supercharger network a lot, but the people in your bubble may have that need)?

I have no aversion to using Tesla’s network because it doesn’t follow me around with the car. I certainly hope they build a robust and profitable EV charging network to further adoption.

You may be misunderstanding the point of my post. I’m not willing to buy another Tesla automobile because I don’t want to be associated with the brand every time I drive somewhere and I don’t want it front and center at home and work. This may be an interesting data point for investors.

I’ll use whatever charging network is most practical with my next car because I won’t be regularly seen with the brand. Just like when I buy gasoline for my F150 or my bike I’m sure it’s going to some unsavory company but I don’t drive around with an Exxon logo bolted to the tailgate.

 

[Musskiah]

Well no one should be too surprised with the deliveries result as that trend was portended in Troy's data.

What's interesting to me is pretzel logic to try to avoid admitting demand has been hurt. Not why, just that is has.

Outside of list prices being cut heavily vs Q1 of last year while interest rates were not that different, we also have knowledge of the used car trends.

Yes, I'm going to bring up used car trends again. The average price of a used Model 3 and Model Y have dropped over $6000 in the past 5 months! There's no way that's not related to demand for new Tesla vehicles. If you drop the price of a lightly used 2023 Model 3 by $5000, less people are gonna pay a higher premium for a new one.

So no, it's not a surprise that we saw this trend in the data and then it would show up in less people wanting to buy new Teslas in Q1 unless prices were cut even further.

On the bright side, it seems the drop in prices is starting to slow down. Some of that is seasonality as you can see the CarGuru index turning up.

View attachment 1034664



The main problem isn't one quarter of bad deliveries, it's about what will the market reasonably estimate will be growth in deliveries and operating margins over the next few years? I recently forecast $5 in 2025, but even that had some optimism built in. Operating margins might be in the 7% range for Q1. Getting them back to 10% would be a huge achievement, but at the same time not super high.

As for deliveries, now Tesla isn't likely to hit 2 million this year. 2025 might now be 2.2 to 2.3 million. With lower operating margins and deliveries than expected before, possible earnings are closer to $4.

5 million cars per year might take until 2028. We can't assume 20 million anymore. It's very clear any country that has tariff-free access to Chinese cars will receive a whole bunch of those and Tesla's margins will be competed down to (e.g. Tesla will NOT return to having big gross margins from Shanghai). Yes they may have better margins than competitors, but those competitiors will just go to breakeven).

5 million EVs at 10% operating margin will stil justify a higher share price than the current level. You can probably get $6 EPS from it. But it's gonna take 4 years or so to get there. With some discounting rate and PE of say 30-40, fair day current value of that pure automotive portion of the company is probably worth around $150.

The share price value above $150 in the next year can from (my guesses):

1) FSD (obviously)
2) Big margins and growth from Cybertruck
3) Big margins and growth from Energy (but hard to see this happening in next 12 months due to lag)
4) Unexpected news on next gen brought to production earlier than expected.

5) 40k Semis in 2025 are worth 200k MY Profits

-Lathrop and half-ramped Lingang in 2025 will be worth the Profits of 2-3 Gigafactories
-125k Cybertrucks+ (possibly 175k+) in 2025 are worth 250k MY (possibly 400k) MY Profits

Add Semi and Cybertruck together and that's another Fremont Gigafactory of output.

Even without FSD (obviously it will crush in 2025) Tesla will experince the growth of somewhere between 3-4 Gigafactories over 2023. Did I say Tesla will nearly double Profits from 2023 to 2025? In "down" years? Why yes, yes I did.

(Takes another long rip of hopium)

 

[Krugerrand]

Nice positive summary from Teslaconomics over on X for those of us who may be losing hope. I agree with all his statements.

Do the Q1 delivery numbers worry me? Yes absolutely. Am I selling? Nope. I have a 5-10 year investing timeframe and am willing to weather the short term storms to enjoy the (crossed fingers) long term gains.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1775192586329997362

Good thing Tesla isn’t just a car company.

Thanks for sharing this link.

 

[Krugerrand]

That’s funny but I probably should have just said “political” hat.

I’m a liberal but I wouldn’t want a Biden hat as a car either. I’m under no illusion that the CEOs of other carmakers aren’t also distasteful in this regard, I just don’t want the giant blue shiny object in which I spent a third of each day to project any political association.

Suggest you walk then, but make sure none of your clothes or your shoes aren’t political in some way.

 

[Unpilot]

All this doom and gloom!

My Gawd you would think this is the day trader roundtable.

The usual suspects are here to tell you the sky is falling.
My sky is shinning bright...thank you very much.

To be clear, I do not agree with many of Elon's take on social issues.

I agree wholeheartedly with his steerage of the company.
The results of Tesla as a company are nothing short of miraculous......do to his unbelievable work ethic and passion.

So unless all you care about is fake virtue signaling and not actual physical results.....be gone with you.

 

[advocate8]

The point of my post is that Elon’s antics haven’t removed the likelihood of you using the Supercharger network.
That is not consistent with you not willing to buy another Tesla.
Have you considered that keeping to use the supercharger network may be more profitable to Tesla (over the lifetime of your new car) than actually buying a new car (maybe not for you as you don’t need the Supercharger network a lot, but the people in your bubble may have that need)?

Peoples’ vehicles are a projection of their identity. The gas stations they use? Not so much. You don’t wear BP clothing wherever you go.

 

[Singuy]

And I wonder how many employees actually agree with all of Elon's personal (and very radical) opinions...maybe a small percentage? That's it I bet.

That's like an atheist looking at a church full of people and saying, "I wonder how many of these people actually believes in this very radical idea of a God"?

 

[Unpilot]

Peoples’ vehicles are a projection of their identity. The gas stations they use? Not so much. You don’t wear BP clothing wherever you go.

But you do spew poison wherever you drive your ICE ...so there is that.

 

[mtndrew1]

Suggest you walk then, but make sure none of your clothes or your shoes aren’t political in some way.

There’s how people actually behave and how they “should” behave (define that as you will).

A company that’s not Tesla will be getting my next automobile purchase because of very vocal antics from Mr. Musk. That may be noteworthy for investors.

Since the company is sitting on like 60,000 unsold cars after throwing discounts, advertising, FSD transfers, and unlimited supercharging transfers, something might be up, as it were.

 

[EVDRVN]

I wonder how many people are waiting for the refreshed Y, especially after seeing the refreshed 3.

I, for one, am in the market for a vehicle and want a Y but am waiting for the refresh.

If it had 4WS and air suspension I would skip my CT order which I have on hold and get the Y. I think anyone with knowledge of Tesla is holding for the refresh or a CT. I would have had my CT in Dec/Jan but not going for Founders price.

 

[Drumheller]

Referral credits have been reduced.

 

[primedive]

This probably won’t get a warm reception here but it might be relevant for investors.

I’m driving my second Tesla now and will not buy another, specifically because of Elon Musk. He’s turned my car into a MAGA hat and I want to be as far away from the brand as possible.

The moment that FSD allows the sale of my car to break even, I’m out, though his nonsense in that regard probably means I’ll take a bath on this car.

Even if Elon is gone it’ll be a while before the stink is off the brand. I’m willing to accept a (moderately) inferior car to be away from Tesla and I’m willing to lose money to do so. Anecdotally I have a friend who is a surgeon and a friend who is a prominent TV producer and both have moved on from their Teslas for this reason.

Anyway, flame away.

In my experience, most people don't go on Twitter (sorry, "X") or are even aware of what Elon Musk is up to, so I find this interesting. He can certainly speak his mind, and Tesla wouldn't be where it is without him, but internally, the execs at Tesla must be groaning every time he does.

 

[mtndrew1]

In my experience, most people don't go on Twitter (sorry, "X") or are even aware of what Elon Musk is up to, so I find this interesting. He can certainly speak his mind, and Tesla wouldn't be where it is without him, but internally, the execs at Tesla must be groaning every time he does.

I’ve been a Tesla champion for about a decade now and have successfully encouraged at least a dozen people to buy the cars.

I read something a while back where Elon said that his brother calls him from time to time and says “when you stick the knife in our backs can you just not twist it?”

Might be how the board is feeling these days.

 

[uscbucsfan]

From 12300 to 22777 at GigaTexas - 86% increase in employees from EOY 2022 to EOY 2023.

Loading…

www.expressnews.com

Cybertruck had capacity to produce 125k+ vehicles way back in October, 2023.

Tesla announces Cybertruck deliveries in November, claims 125,000 production capacity

Tesla has announced that Cybertruck deliveries will start in November and weirdly claims to have already deployed production capacity for...

electrek.co

The sky is falling!!!!!!!! Demand issues!!!!!!!
(Takes a deep rip of hopium. Spritzes sweet sweet Burnt Hair. Remembers that Elon is a 4D Chess Master who chuckles as the plebs on Wall Street play checkers.)

That 125k is max production capacity for the line. That's not what they were ever going to produce this year.

 

[Wooloomooloo]

I wonder how many people are waiting for the refreshed Y, especially after seeing the refreshed 3.

I, for one, am in the market for a vehicle and want a Y but am waiting for the refresh.

tbh I think a lot of people bought the existing Y before they remove the stalks - I know that's a sore topic and it's all in the eyes of the beholder, but I made that very comment to my rep a few weeks ago when he was lamenting shortage of MYP inventory, and he said I wasn't the first to make that comment.