Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MD70]

Tesla needs a long term solution to address the cost of the replacement batteries. Without that, the EV movement will be stalled.

An important topic which isn’t discussed enough.
As the number of vehicles outside warranty increases I foresee horror stories about battery’s failing and the cost of replacement increasing.
This will result in even more depreciation for out of warranty vehicles which in turn will impact new sales.

 

[Sunlight]

As along term lurker and a share holder, I watch the current turmoil with some distress and interest!

It seems that the narrow range has not helped the sales or perception of Tesla - it has always felt dangerous to me to rely on virtually one model in a few variations and colours.

As other car companies seem to incessantly produce 'variations on a theme', I do not understand why Tesla doesn't do something similar. It would presumably be fairly easy to produce station wagon versions of the Model S and 3 with 95% carry over. Ditto a van version and a more squared-off SUV for the Model Y. Maybe convertibles (easier than with an ICE car?) of the MS and M3. Off-road versions with bodywork changes and higher suspension etc. Van version of the CT......And so on

Surely these 'cosmetic' changes would broaden the Tesla appeal and be profitable, increase sales and broaden appeal and exposure? I know that Tesla wants to simplify and focus but hasn't that been detrimental in a different way?

 

[Mengy]

I’m waiting for whatever is next from Tesla that could be used as a camper. Maybe the CyberVan, if that ever becomes a reality.
I spent the weekend investigating campers and caravans and was astonished everything still heavily used gas for heating and cooking. Not for me, I can wait.

A Tesla Van is certainly coming, but I'd wager we won't even see it until the Gen 3 compact is revealed, in volume production, and selling well. So if that's true then we still have several years until we see the Tesla Van.

 

[lascavarian]

Cathy Wood very positive on TSLA on CNBC.

 

[CitizenKane]

Cathy Wood very positive on TSLA on CNBC.

Shocking.

 

[GhostSkater]

Interesting video on Cybertruck headlights

Host was impressed with the lights given how tiny they are

This is the stuff that makes Tesla, Tesla

 

[NicoV]

An important topic which isn’t discussed enough.
As the number of vehicles outside warranty increases I foresee horror stories about battery’s failing and the cost of replacement increasing.
This will result in even more depreciation for out of warranty vehicles which in turn will impact new sales.

That’s the number one thing Tesla has to fix. I recently got a questionnaire from Tesla on the occasion of my Model 3 getting 6 old, and I that’s exactly what I mentioned in the freeform comments: Tesla should make battery repairs cheaper, and give a longer warranty after replacing a battery. The reason is that as an individual you either get lucky with your battery repair/replacement or not. If you have no luck, it gets very costly and those individuals can really spoil the situation with such horror stories. Tesla can solve this by a longer warranty, eliminating the battery gamble.
Disclosure: This was one of the top reasons why I got a new Model S after 8 years, I didn’t want to do the battery gamble. But whoever bought my car is doing dat gamble.
Without change in policy, my Model 3 will also be replaced by the time it’s 8 years.
Note that neither of those cars had any signs of a bad battery, it’s just risk management from my side. TBH, also combined with lust for something new and shiny.

 

[NicoV]

Tesla captured 6.97% market share in Belgium in March. Fifth place. BMW was first with 9.92%
I expect Tesla to end in the top 3 by the end of the year, since Audi is currently number 3 with just 7.18%
Stretch goal: number 1 by EOY.

https://febiac.be/sites/default/files/media/file/2024-04/0324%20-%20Cars%20by%20make_0.pdf

 

[Rotte]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1775414062136078398

FSD is getting better and better!

 

[bpjod]

Interesting video on Cybertruck headlights

Host was impressed with the lights given how tiny they are

This is the stuff that makes Tesla, Tesla

Yes, but the fact they’re recessed and low so therefore prone to getting filled with slush (not mentioned in this review) is also the stuff that makes Tesla, Tesla - the California/Texas company.

This has the potential to be a significant problem here where we have a combination of few daylight hours combined with messy, slushy roads on a frequent basis. Less of a concern in town where it’s easy to find somewhere safe to pull over to clean them. Potentially quite dangerous on long stretches of highway, in the dark, in not great driving conditions with nowhere safe to easily pull over for many miles. That’s my primary style of driving so it is a concern for me. YMMV.

I’ll be looking for reports of how this plays out next winter before committing to fulfill my early reservation. Hopefully it’s a nothingburger like the centre screen, lack of driver’s binnacle, yoke, etc. all turned out to be.

 

[jamaatta]

Is anyone here aware of Xiaomi SU7? It got 50,000 orders in one day. The spec is comparable to Model 3 and the price is 10% lower. It might already impact M3 sales in China for the coming months.
Last time someone said don't worry about Xiaomi, which is just a phone manufacturer, and how could it make a good car?
I somehow agreed with that, but now I think that is a really careless underestimate.
Although Xiaomi is losing money on each car they sell, but their phone-car ecosystem is pretty good. There are millions of Xiaomi phone users in China, and they can all integrate their information and Apps into Xiaomi SU7 easily, and that is quite an attraction for them to consider SU7.

Many said Friday TSLA dropped because of SU7. I hope the impact will not extend.
Currently the advantage of TESLA M3 is the supercharge network only. Not sure about FSD in China.

It seems like Xiaomi is in trouble in China. Test cars keep crashing and customers are tired of waiting. There have been several crashes lately.

For example:

"There is one more thing that must have discouraged customers. Photos and videos of prototypes crashing on public roads have been showing up on social media. The latest, a six-second video, shows the driver of an Aqua Blue SU7 losing control of the test car and crashing into the curb on the side of the road.

The drivers seem to lose control and traction before they slam into curbs or other vehicles. The incidents prompted people to ask questions about the car being underdeveloped for the moment.

Back in February, Xiaomi conducted winter testing in Heir City in Northeastern China. During the tests, an SU7 crashed on a snowy road."

Xiaomi SU7 Test Car Crashes, Customers Want Their Money Back Due to Long Waiting Times

A Xiaomi SU7 test car was seen crashing into the curb on the side of the road. Around 90,000 customers reserved a car in the first 24 hours

www.autoevolution.com

 

[CitizenKane]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1775414062136078398

FSD is getting better and better!

So, is it ready for Ho Chi Minh City now?

 

[DarkandStormy]

Today, Cathie Wood bought TSLA shares for all 3 of her ARK funds that can own TSLA.
ARKK 182,052
ARKQ 10,202
ARKW 42,744

I don't think the worst fund manager on Wall Street over the last three years buying TSLA is the signal you think it is.

 

[DarkandStormy]

View attachment 1034980

Elon agrees

Elon's second line is hilarious.

BYD grew sales YoY, unlike Tesla. Car sales are a (somewhat) seasonal business, so what is the point of bringing up QoQ?

Toyota didn't seem to struggle, for example (they are dumb and use "electrified" to mean BEV, PHEV, and hybrid, I believe).

 

[Usain]

As along term lurker and a share holder, I watch the current turmoil with some distress and interest!

It seems that the narrow range has not helped the sales or perception of Tesla - it has always felt dangerous to me to rely on virtually one model in a few variations and colours.

As other car companies seem to incessantly produce 'variations on a theme', I do not understand why Tesla doesn't do something similar. It would presumably be fairly easy to produce station wagon versions of the Model S and 3 with 95% carry over. Ditto a van version and a more squared-off SUV for the Model Y. Maybe convertibles (easier than with an ICE car?) of the MS and M3. Off-road versions with bodywork changes and higher suspension etc. Van version of the CT......And so on

Surely these 'cosmetic' changes would broaden the Tesla appeal and be profitable, increase sales and broaden appeal and exposure? I know that Tesla wants to simplify and focus but hasn't that been detrimental in a different way?

Variations increase complexity. Engineers hate complexity because it kills efficiency.

Having only a few models/colors/designs makes everything simpler, easier to manage, and cheaper.

So Tesla will only tolerate variations that can be produced in large, scalable quantities that will be profitable.

The downside of this approach is everything you mentioned.

 

[DarkandStormy]

I'm not worried about inventory or delta production vs deliveries. I am more worried about inventory minus "in transit to customer". This quarter due to a few external factors in transit to costumer went up a lot, I assume that next quarter it will go down. If it does for no good reason I might worry.

Imo if you are gonna argue that
production >> deliveries -> lack of demand
I hope that in next quarter you will argue
deliveries >> production -> high demand

If you don't then you are intellectually dishonest.

I mean, there's also the added context that this build up of inventory (production >> deliveries) has been occurring *WHILE* prices have been cut. Imagine what this chart would look like if Tesla maintained ASPs.

Sure, deliveries could outpace production. One way to do that would be to sell every vehicle for $15k and promptly go bankrupt.

 

[2daMoon]

An important topic which isn’t discussed enough.
As the number of vehicles outside warranty increases I foresee horror stories about battery’s failing and the cost of replacement increasing.
This will result in even more depreciation for out of warranty vehicles which in turn will impact new sales.

This is not a concern. Every battery cost metric is on a downhill path.

Tesla and its battery partners are expanding their production capabilities. This has been in the planning and construction phases for years now. It takes time to bring online.

All manufacturers are facing the same battery availability problem, and many have cancelled their battery production plans. Tesla purchased equipment from one of these cancellations by a legacy brand and is installing a new line in Nevada.

Meanwhile, Tesla's work with Jeff Dahn has resulted in chemistries that have improved characteristics, including longevity.

Maybe the stock price is low and as a result your fears have nurtured a talent for making up horror stories.

 

[Usain]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1775414062136078398

https://twitter.com/x/status/1775414065575367031

 

[Snerruc]

I own a 22 S LR and am sad to see so few S/X sales this quarter. I believe no car in history has offered the combination of acceleration, handling, space, ride quality, safety and amenities as this car. At the price it is a major bargain. If the numbers stay this low, it seems it will be hard to justify the production space the line takes up at Fremont.

I said something similar a few pages back. My thought is to do for low volume vehicles what they are doing for the truck- build a plant that specializes in vehicles like the S,X and Roadster. Highly flexible, low volume, high quality and high profit. Perhaps they already have something like this scheduled for down the road. I know..doesn’t really fit with the mission.

 

[2daMoon]

As along term lurker and a share holder, I watch the current turmoil with some distress and interest!

It seems that the narrow range has not helped the sales or perception of Tesla - it has always felt dangerous to me to rely on virtually one model in a few variations and colours.

As other car companies seem to incessantly produce 'variations on a theme', I do not understand why Tesla doesn't do something similar. It would presumably be fairly easy to produce station wagon versions of the Model S and 3 with 95% carry over. Ditto a van version and a more squared-off SUV for the Model Y. Maybe convertibles (easier than with an ICE car?) of the MS and M3. Off-road versions with bodywork changes and higher suspension etc. Van version of the CT......And so on

Surely these 'cosmetic' changes would broaden the Tesla appeal and be profitable, increase sales and broaden appeal and exposure? I know that Tesla wants to simplify and focus but hasn't that been detrimental in a different way?

I seem to have forgotten, which manufacturer is it that produces the best selling car in the world?