Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MD70]

Anyone know how long the equipment to make the S/X is being depreciated?
This might give a clue as to when either Tesla stops making these models or does a major refresh.

 

[jerry33]

I've wondered for a long time whether autopilot gives horse and buggies enough room when passing. And three lane roads with passing not allowed in either direction (common here): will autopilot use the center lane to pass a buggy? All human drivers do that even though it's not legal.

I've never tried autopilot. A self driving system that drives worse than I do is useless IMO.

I'm still on V11 and on highways/freeways it drives as well or better than I do about 90% of the time. There are a few glitches, but they are well known (wrong speed limit, diving into unpainted turn lanes, switching lanes when there is no need). On surface streets in town it's not as good, but the more recent versions are actually usable. The main issues, other than those already mentioned, are on narrow streets with parked cars. It wants to go the speed limit, which is about twice as fast as is safe. It also jumps off the line after a stop and then slows down rather than smoothly accelerating. No experience with horses and buggies, but I would likely disengage and give as wide a space as possible because horses are often skittish.

 

[scaesare]

The media has been lying about Tesla for over a decade. Still, Wall Street has not learned.

Now, we are in a world of generative AI, where even video can be fabricated to look indistinguishable from the real thing.

Wall Street is going to need to somehow get off its ass and not take every rumor as gospel, reacting like 5-year-olds to every piece of garbage that spews from the media’s mouth.

I think the issue is often that Wall St. is using the media to spread its lies...

 

[Usain]

Feelin' Groovy

 

[Joe F]

I've wondered for a long time whether autopilot gives horse and buggies enough room when passing. And three lane roads with passing not allowed in either direction (common here): will autopilot use the center lane to pass a buggy? All human drivers do that even though it's not legal.

I've never tried autopilot. A self driving system that drives worse than I do is useless IMO.

You've never used autopilot, and by extension, never used FSD, and one corner case makes it useless to you?

I have not let AP or now V12 FSD pass without a disengagement and giving as wide a berth as is necessary. Maybe I'll slap my GoPro on next time and test it out for you. Can't have you wondering forever before deciding if FSD is useless to you or not.

EDIT: There's nothing that says FSD can't learn how humans safely pass a horse and buggy in time...

 

[2daMoon]

Feelin' Groovy

I like to think of things like this as a static fire test, prior to launch.

 

[wtlloyd]

I see several posts about FSD being too expensive and I do agree. But once FSD can give people time without having to pay attention, that 12k will be worth it for many. Especially if the license could transfer to a new Tesla. Even if Tesla charged a 1 or 2k license transfer fee, it would be worth it to me. But 12k every time you buy a new vehicle is difficult to swallow. I sure hope Tesla will continue to allow transfers because it is also a fantastic way to retain customers.

I believe it is this year, when the RT announcement happens, that Tesla will announce the end of sales of FSD, or at least double the price for full ownership. Monthly subscription is so much more advantageous for Tesla, and many drivers. It's really the reason I bought it a year ago, as I expected FSD sales to transition to subscription only much sooner. The obvious software models that have switched over the last decade are proof that outright sales will end. You can't support forever software that is only sold once.

 

[2daMoon]

You've never used autopilot, and by extension, never used FSD, and one use case makes it useless to you?

I have not let AP or now V12 FSD pass without a disengagement and giving as wide a berth as is necessary. Maybe I'll slap my GoPro on next time and test it out for you. Can't have you wondering forever before deciding if FSD is useless to you or not.

FWIW, they may have another option.

As I understand it, all Horse and Buggy systems include default FSD capability.

This is always an alternative to consider if Tesla's FSD doesn't seem appropriate for some people.

 

[Nrkl]

FSD might not drive the exact way you drive. I for example prefer to drive close to the shoulder in a way that freaks out my wife, and she drives so close to the center line that it freak me out. At least robotaxi won’t be like the cab driver that blasts techno music and texts his girlfriend while driving.

 

[unk45]

FWIW, they may have another option.

As I understand it, all Horse and Buggy systems include default FSD capability.

This is always an alternative to consider if Tesla's FSD doesn't seem appropriate for some people.

Not quite, in my opinion. I think they are actually equipped with 'auto-home'.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

Imo Elon wanted unboxed car to be 100% robotaxi because he thinks it's best to go allin on robotaxi. He likes to bet the house because by doing that the company has a higher chance of succeeding at doing the task. Franz et al were unsure if robotaxi software would be ready. Franz convinced Elon to do both on same platform. They planned on making unboxed in Mexico first. Then they realized that it's better do do unboxed first in Texas as the engineers prefers that. Then V12->V12.3.3+ showed great improvement making Elon and the engineers more confident in Robotaxi software being ready in time. So now the order has gone out to reprioritize resources from 25k car to Robotaxi. Resources here is basically everything Tesla has got ie manpower, compute, buildings, construction team, cash etc. Reprioritize means that in their software that decides what to do which is an optimization tool they upped the weight of robotaxi. They are still doing 25k car, just that engineers etc will spend a higher percent hours etc on robotaxi than they would have done without the repriortization. Lets say some engineers spend their days like
10% validation, 10% improve old features, 10% new features, 10% model Y/3/S/X, 20% cybertruck, 20% robotaxi, 20% 25k car.
now it's more like:
10% validation, 10% improve old features, 10% new features, 10% model Y/3/S/X, 20% cybertruck, 30% robotaxi, 10% 25k car.

Hey, I'm not banned anymore!

Since Elon's lieutenants talked him out of going all-in on Robotaxi, and pursuing 25k as an insurance policy, can we safely infer the rest of the team now has Elon level confidence in Autonomy?

 

[Krugerrand]

I've wondered for a long time whether autopilot gives horse and buggies enough room when passing. And three lane roads with passing not allowed in either direction (common here): will autopilot use the center lane to pass a buggy? All human drivers do that even though it's not legal.

I've never tried autopilot. A self driving system that drives worse than I do is useless IMO.

1. FSD has moved away from and around improperly parked and double parked vehicles by crossing all sorts of painted line designs into road lanes meant for other direction traffic - see YT videos.

2. FSD has moved away from and around obstacles like tires missing their cars at highway speeds, thus crossing all sorts of painted lines and encroaching into other lanes of traffic - see YT videos.

3. FSD has crossed all sorts of painted lines to avoid collisions into designated non-driving space like road shoulders - have you had a spat with Google and they’re no longer your friend?

4. Given the above, it stands to reason that FSD might just simply go around the horse and buggy as though it was an obstacle. It might also simply slow down and take a wait and see approach before making a decision, getting confused, or outright giving up. I’m pretty confident it won’t deliberately run into the horse and buggy. It may pass too close for your or the horse’s particular tastes, or not. Maybe there’s a YT FSD video out there already? I haven’t seen one, but then I don’t care. I’ll take such a situation as it comes to me because I like to be surprised. But because it’s important to you, maybe you could search a bit?

5. I haven’t seen you drive but I have been seeing FSD drive for years and I’ve used it for years. So it’s very much up in the air if you’re a better driver than FSD at this point.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

FSD might not drive the exact way you drive. I for example prefer to drive close to the shoulder in a way that freaks out my wife, and she drives so close to the center line that it freak me out. At least robotaxi won’t be like the cab driver that blasts techno music and texts his girlfriend while driving.

For me this changed with the free trial of FSD. I prefer driving toward the right and was always uncomfortable with how far left Driver Assistance positioned inside the lane Additionally, my car would always yell at me for driving to the right. Now with FSD installed, the car is driving to the right, where I feel more comfortable.

 

[larmor]

FSD might not drive the exact way you drive. I for example prefer to drive close to the shoulder in a way that freaks out my wife, and she drives so close to the center line that it freak me out. At least robotaxi won’t be like the cab driver that blasts techno music and texts his girlfriend while driving.

Or watches a drama on youtube while driving in dense city traffic, occasionally on the opposite side of the road.

 

[SOULPEDL]

I'm still on V11

Likes danger.

 

[scaesare]

Technically, even if there is zero truth to it, Reuters didn't lie. They merely reported what their "sources" told them, and then added their own thoughts/predictions/evaluations.

As long as the "sources" and "messages" exist, even if they were wrong and/or misinterpretted, then Reuters is probably protected.

First lines of the story:

"Tesla has canceled the long-promised inexpensive car that investors have been counting on to drive its growth into a mass-market automaker, according to three sources familiar with the matter and company messages seen by Reuters.

The automaker will continue developing self-driving robotaxis on the same small-vehicle platform, the sources said."

How do you know Reuters didn't lie?

Even if they didn't, I think there's a fine line between outright stating things that are blatantly untrue and fabricating a set of events that allow you to technically report something and/or report something that you didn't fabricate but know not to be true. In that case it's tantamount to lying IMO.

 

[scaesare]

Often what was posted is incorrect and someone else has already corrected them. Or it's an opinion people may not agree with with nothing to debate. Or there are off the wall posts that should be nuked or posters banned and responding and going back and forth with a troll is not worth anybodies time.

If it's worthy of debate then people will respond and discuss. If it's a low quality post then at best they get a emoticon response to encourage or discourage similar posts. My thoughts on it anyway

It's one of the reasons I think a reply (even if brief) outlining what was disagreed with is uesful. Often times it's simply one point amongst many I take issue with, even if I agree with the others.

(As an aside, I tend to use "Informative" or "helpful" for posts that simply are relaying data, such as Twitter posts or links to news stories, and save "Like" for posts with some reasoning/conclusion/personal experience that I like. I likewise wish there was something to allow expressing disagreement with the content linked and the post itself.... I may appreciate the link to a story on increasing EV taxes, but not like the actual news itself.)

 

[scaesare]

I have to say the fact that many of us, and the market, thinks this is real is proof I’m not alone on my thoughts about Elon. Again, read the book. Also, Elon isn’t 100% truthful. I’m sure that big bad “main stream media” didn’t invent this from nothing. We all know this was Elon’s intention and that he was pushed out of the idea. I’m sure there’s something that can make Elon say “false” but there’s also something that makes the story true. I stand by my assertion. Tesla is amazing, Elon is the risk.

Do you have examples where you believe he was untruthful?

There's a difference between stating what one believes to be truthful and correct, and always being correct.

 

[scaesare]

lots and lots of superchargers. including 200 stall site in Florida now

Tesla to Unveil World's Largest Supercharger Sites in Florida and California - EconoTimes

Tesla is set to revolutionize electric vehicle (EV) charging infrastructure by constructing the worlds largest Supercharger station in Florida, boasting over 200 stalls, alongside a pioneering 164-stall site in California....

www.econotimes.com

With the other major vendors adopting NACS, 2 things occur to me:

1- It will be interesting to see how much a significant charging infrastructure fuels EV adoption.

2- With Superchargers potentially becoming a significant profit center, how much of a positive-feedback-loop increasing Superchager rollouts may spawn for EV adoption

 

[scaesare]

If a two seater were the right solution for the first world, would we not see more two or more car households having one of those cars be a two seater? Also, I doubt that in ride share services there is large a percentage of two seaters (again I mean in the first world).

So, my guess too is that the initial vehicle on the next gen platform is not going to be a two seater. I wouldn’t bet that it will be particularly compact. I wouldn’t be surprised if it was $25K after incentives rather than before at least for a while.

It very likely that the personal vehicle will differ in trim and perhaps markedly so.

Am I certain of anything? Yes, it’ll be an EV!

So all this talk of a two-seater reminded me of this: