Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Musskiah]

CATL unveils Tesla Megapack competitor, claims zero degradation and more capacity

CATL has unveiled Tener, a new large scale energy storage system to compete with Tesla Megapack. The system has almost...

electrek.co

Excellent! Competition breeds innovation, and it's a long way to 2.4 TWh. The more we can store wasted off-peak energy, the more we can feed the hungry AI monster.

 

[jschwefel]

Call me crazy, but I believe WHEN FSD is as good as the technology promises (i.e. “super human”) it will be worth A LOT.

Tesla doesn’t lose anything when someone buys FSD for $99/month or $12k, $8k or even $4k. Whatever they sell it for is additional profit/revenue they wouldn’t have had otherwise. As the technology improves and the March of nines continues, the true value increases regardless what they charge for it.

 

[Musskiah]

FSD choosing the wrong lane:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1778925157530354052

That pre-accident insurance definitely not worth $199 a month...but I'd pay $99 all day!!

 

[MC3OZ]

Do you understand what the CEO has said time and time again about what would happen with the price of FSD as it got closer?

Do you also understand to bring in the same subscription revenue per month they have to add as many new subscribers as they had existing ones just to be revenue neutral?

The monthly subscription amount can be varied at anytime in future.

Dropping the price now makes sense for lots of reasons, the main reason being Tesla needs to establish good revenue streams for the next phase of growth.

There is a good chance that once customers get used to having FSD small price increases occasionally will not cause many to cancel their subscription. If Tesla finds a price where a lot of subscribers cancel, they can then walk back to a former price.

Should Tesla be about to start funding a Robotaxi fleet that will follow a similar path to Supercharging:-

1. Cost centre
2. Breakeven
3. Funding a ramp of expansion.
4. Profit

So depending on what they have in mind, the first 1-2 years of Robotaxis might be a drain on resources, FSD subscriptions can help offset that.

 

[jschwefel]

When the share price goes up like that shortly after the after hours session starts it's almost always margin calls kicking in. The market makers are all done buying and selling for options by 5:30 p.m. so after that until the close of the after-hours session at 8:00 pm the bears will continue to drive down the share price. That's pretty much what we saw today. Business as usual for Wally.

I’ve missed you. Welcome back!

 

[AudubonB]

On the topic of Gruntledness!

As of one minute ago, I am downloading 2024.3.15 / 12.3.4 on ChittyChittyShushShush - our early 2017 P100DL Model X. Am at the End of the Line no longer.

Whale Oil Beef…..Needled....or some such

 

[Skipdd]

So odd… neither my 2018 M3 or wife’s 22 MX have gotten the FSD trial.

Apologies if this was already posted (I did not find it when I looked), but Tesla has issued a new release for Legacy X and S that provides FSD v12. In my case I have EAP and when I installed 2024.3.15 (release notes said minor fixes ), I immediately noticed IC graphics looked like FSD and when I looked at control panel screen for Auto-Pilot, it doesn’t say EAP, but Full Self Driving with a bunch of options I have never seen before. I will try it this weekend. I’m guessing this is why I wasn’t offered the trial ..

I should also add that I had upgraded my MCU back when there were eMMC issues, yellow border issues, and general slowness of screen rendering. I considered it a bargain to get brand new computers for the MCU and IC and HW3 for $2500. Which other auto company offers to upgrade your core compute like that?

 

[Skipdd]

I did a search on Iran, this is all I could find, so I assume it hasn’t been discussed recently.

Attack on Israel is likely this weekend. Gettin a bit concerned. Anyone have a read on how it impacts TSLA or markets?

I see potential for the Israeli strike and a measure counter back at Iran. If that’s it, will only be a blip next week. Hope for zero escalation after that point. I assume it puts oil prices on notice, but just guessing. Thoughts?

There is an answer to this - posted it in the Israel/Hamas thread - #8198099. Suggestions are that Israel’s strike will aim for deterrence, so asymmetrical in my opinion.
Post in thread 'Israel/Hamas conflict'
Israel/Hamas conflict

 

[AudubonB]

No more Mideast, UKR-RU &c conflict postings here please.

 

[SO16]

In fact, this was at the end of q1 2019. This was the time when Tesla was experiencing "logistics hell" with the introduction of the model 3 in europe. The problem was shipping the cars to Europe before the end of the quarter. The reduction in the price of FSD was likely a response to the need for short-term cash. The price of FSD was returned to its previous levels shortly later in q2.

I took advantage of this. My 2017 MS was delivered with nothing but dumb cruise. For 5k, I received FSD. Worth it IMO.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I took advantage of this. My 2017 MS was delivered with nothing but dumb cruise. For 5k, I received FSD. Was worth it to me.

I know, hey? I got FSD on my April 2022 model Y for the equivalent of $7,500 USD by including it with my reservation which I made at the end of July 2021. I was very lucky because the price of FSD went up in Canada just 3 days later along with US prices. Now in Canada FSD is about $16,000 Canadian.

[Cue the 'start the car' / Leon's memes]

 

[wtlloyd]

This is bad, this is really bad...

FSD V12.3.3 on MYP has been nailing this traffic circle day after day. I have done it dozens of times in the last couple weeks from all different approaches to all different exits.

So I figured, I should take MXLR with V12.3.4 to give it a whirl. First time around, it was even smoother than V12.3.3 and I was quite excited.

Then, on my next approach into the circle (coming from the left on the image I posted) the unthinkable happened; the LEFT TURN SIGNAL came on as the MX awaited a clear entry. A few cars passed and when the coast was clear from the left, it began to enter the circle in a CLOCKWISE fashion - the WRONG WAY!!! I intervened with much Chagrin! Get it? I was on Chagrin Blvd...nevermind...anyhoo...

Now, my route planner had me going to that "bp" entrance off the circle in the upper left corner of the image, so undoubtedly, it thought it could just take a quick shortcut in and out of the circle instead of traversing 330 degrees of the entire circle. In my younger days, before my prefrontal cortex was fully developed, I may have impatiently attempted the same if the coast was clear.

I have no doubt Tesla will relentlessly feed Dojo traffic circle tokens in order to avoid this type of behavior in future versions.

The question is: How long might it take to ensure this behavior occurs very very veeeery infrequently? As we all know, FSD just has to be much better than humans, and many-a-human has gone the wrong way down one ways, roadways, highways, and traffic circles.

Sadly, I am no longer gruntled (that didn't take very long). I anxiously await V12.4...

This is how I drive my work van in small neighborhood roundabouts - the turning radius is too tight, I'd have to back and fill to make a left, so I just go for the shortcut!

 

[wtlloyd]

Weekend OT re: safety tech. ever heard of SawStop?

The have the tech to massively reduce injuries from table saw injuries that was patented. Lately then opened up parts of the tech to competitors so that everyone could make a safer saw. Even offered to license or help other manufacturers incorporate it.

Response by competitors: they don’t want to see safety tech mandated (cause they probably don’t know how and don’t want to pay to learn it)

Sound familiar?

Well, their patent was about to expire in under 2 years, I think. They were like crazed weasels in enforcing their patents for the last 25 years, so it's a case of a little, pretty late. Damn good device, we have a couple of their saws.

OT:
(As a side note, since I saw Kuggerand is interested, the jobsite saw has a lousy fence and a lot of compromises, the Contractor saw is OK but the Cabinet and Pro saws are the ones to have if you can swing it.)

 

[Quesder]

Cannot believe what I posted in this forum two weeks ago, "FSD subscription should be $100/month", now becomes reality.
Too bad that my MY has "Front motor lose power" issue, and my wife claimed that she encountered "unintended acceleration" issue twice.
She is also very unhappy about the efficiency of the service center, who rescheduled her appointment, and shouted out loud that she won't buy another TESLA.

Apparently, she won't allow me to subscribe FSD...
probably shout subscribe secretly anyway, as a probe on how TESLA technology goes.

 

[Discoducky]

Sooooo, I can't break 12.3.4. I had several things that 11.x either could barely do or not all. 12.3.4 has no issue that I can detect after nearly 200+ miles and I'll drive more, but this is sublime.

And I've tried, really really tried to break it. Throwing all kinds of traffic and complexities. It's been nearly a decade, to the month, when I started the team down this autonomous path and now, for the very first time, I'm left without words as my drives are without any reason to have a human behind the seat. Yes, there are corner cases and extraordinary circumstances which will be prioritized, but this is trivial by comparison.

Folks, ladies and gentlemen, members of the jury, we are on the march of 9s, at long last.

Expect 100s, 1000s, weeks and months, of 'human out of loop' driving in your vehicles.

I'm so proud of my former team.

So when we get earnings and they suck and the SP drops, I'll be buying calls/leaps as this is the beginning of the end. NFA

 

[CitizenKane]

This is just additional income until robotaxis are launched at scale (not just unveiled). Also, he has a margin of 90%. So whether it is revenue or profit is marginal.

Aaand..

https://twitter.com/x/status/1778881361249800203

1. I hope you are right but to me there seems to be a lot of time, ifs and buts until Tesla sees revenue from a fleet of robotaxis
2. Agreed but it diminishes my faith in his analysis.

 

[durkie]

Plus the larger FSD customer base brings in a LOT more driving data, and now that Tesla is no longer compute constrained this will accelerate FSD training.

Is this really how it works? Does FSD train on its own output? That seems...not great? It seems like it would be way better to train it on human driving.

 

[Xd85]

Sooooo, I can't break 12.3.4. I had several things that 11.x either could barely do or not all. 12.3.4 has no issue that I can detect after nearly 200+ miles and I'll drive more, but this is sublime.

And I've tried, really really tried to break it. Throwing all kinds of traffic and complexities. It's been nearly a decade, to the month, when I started the team down this autonomous path and now, for the very first time, I'm left without words as my drives are without any reason to have a human behind the seat. Yes, there are corner cases and extraordinary circumstances which will be prioritized, but this is trivial by comparison.

Folks, ladies and gentlemen, members of the jury, we are on the march of 9s, at long last.

Expect 100s, 1000s, weeks and months, of 'human out of loop' driving in your vehicles.

I'm so proud of my former team.

So when we get earnings and they suck and the SP drops, I'll be buying calls/leaps as this is the beginning of the end. NFA

Had an occasion where it needed to take a right turn on to an on ramp that was the type where one lane from turning right and one from opposing traffic turning left merging into one ramp.

The right turn side closed marked by construction cones, and the remaining side was used by both directions of traffic. However this was unmarked

FSD correctly avoided the closed fork but drove right past the other one even though it would have had the right of way to enter

Hope that wasn’t too garbled explanation

 

[SunCatcher]

Sooooo, I can't break 12.3.4. I had several things that 11.x either could barely do or not all. 12.3.4 has no issue that I can detect after nearly 200+ miles and I'll drive more, but this is sublime.

And I've tried, really really tried to break it. Throwing all kinds of traffic and complexities. It's been nearly a decade, to the month, when I started the team down this autonomous path and now, for the very first time, I'm left without words as my drives are without any reason to have a human behind the seat. Yes, there are corner cases and extraordinary circumstances which will be prioritized, but this is trivial by comparison.

Folks, ladies and gentlemen, members of the jury, we are on the march of 9s, at long last.

Expect 100s, 1000s, weeks and months, of 'human out of loop' driving in your vehicles.

I'm so proud of my former team.

So when we get earnings and they suck and the SP drops, I'll be buying calls/leaps as this is the beginning of the end. NFA

Congratulations, I sense your glee and celebration! To whatever extent you contributed to this, BRAVO, well deserved!
And thanks for rejoining us here in this little wondersphere!

 

[EQC_]

Is this really how it works? Does FSD train on its own output? That seems...not great? It seems like it would be way better to train it on human driving.

I think the idea is that more people using FSD will be more people to disengage/correct FSD's mistakes in an ever-wider variety of situations. One way or another, that human feedback should direct the training for future versions...