Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Musskiah]

Later, in June 2020, CATL's chairman also said they have a million-mile battery ready, but did not disclose the customer.

And now they have Tener.

 

[Robertj]

He's also been quoted as saying it'd need much lower #s of miles too.

Every time they're well past whatever the last # he says, he says a new, larger, number.

Some folks will read this as it's a very hard problem, nobody knows the actual final answer and he is eternally optimistic, and thus has to keep revising that number over time.

Some folks will read this... less charitably.

Tesla mentioned the need for approximately 6 billion miles of training data for their Full Self-Driving (FSD) system in 2022. This estimate was discussed in various sources, including NextBigFuture.com and other web snippets, highlighting the importance of this extensive data for achieving a high level of autonomous driving capability.

 

[Gigapress]

Yes, and does anyone remember the price of gold when we nixed the standard? Answer: $35 per ounce!!!

Today gold touched over $2400 per ounce! What’s changed over the last 50 years? An ounce of gold is still an ounce of gold, and technically it has no more value today than it did back then.

The value of the dollar is what’s changed! The $35 dollars that’s been in my Dad’s safe since the early 1970s is still worth $35, and the ounce of gold next to it is still an ounce of gold, but it’s worth a lot more than the $35 he paid for it.

THIS is inflation, and despite what our politicians tell us, THEY control it! Unfortunately, it hurts those living paycheck to paycheck the most. People who are able to buy gold or real estate or S&P 500 Index funds will do okay, because over time those assets grow in value relative to the dollar.

The consumer price index, flawed though it is, has increased by 6.34x since 1974, whereas 2400/35 = 69. Using the price of gold as a proxy for overall inflation is ludicrous. Off by an order of magnitude. Prices in general are obviously nowhere close to 69x higher than the were 50 years ago. If that were the case, gas would be $36/gallon, the median US household income would be $780k, and the median US home price $2.7M.

An ounce of gold is still an ounce of gold, but the demand for ounces of gold has changed drastically in the last 50 years, while supply from mines is only about double what it was in 1974. The majority of gold is used for jewelry and electronics. It looks pretty, doesn't oxidize, and has excellent thermal and electrical conductivity. As the population of Earth has grown and technology has advanced, demand for jewelry and electronics has grown. Even more of the demand growth came from central banks and investors buying much more gold than they used to.

And why is gold special? You could arbitrarily select any other commodity that still has the same physical properties as 50 years ago and get very different results. Even for other precious metals. Since 1974, silver is up 5x, platinum is up 6x, palladium up 20x.

Macroeconomic inflation in the result of a variety of factors, only some of which are within the control or influence of governments. Aggregate demand, aggregate supply, money supply, velocity of money, net investment, etc. THEY would love to have precise control over inflation, but THEY don't possess that power.

 

[AudubonB]

What about SawStop?

I saw it, and will stop it.

 

[MC3OZ]

This is what I've been thinking about lately as well. Disengagements are useful data points, but it seems like lots of just normal mundane human driving is way more valuable. And also that you wouldn't want FSD to learn from its own bad habits.

That's what's been confusing about the "1 billion miles driven on FSD" stat that's being trotted out. Sure, it's cool that more people are using it. It has definitely improved. But also the fleet size is growing and the subscription price is decreasing and a bunch of people got it for free for a while -- does it really matter when 2 billion (or 6 billion) miles comes? It just feels like a very indirect measure of FSD's "quality".

Yes, but to some extent the ability to find edge cases is a simple "miles driven search", drive enough miles, and encounter enough situations, you find all of the edge cases.

Drive more miles with the right triggers, you capture the training data for all of the edge cases... and Tesla does the rest via simulation.

The more obscure the edge case, the harder it is to encounter, and the harder it is to collect data on it, in a good variety of locations, in mixed weather conditions with different levels of lighting, with occlusions, etc.

So we hope that this billion miles is a billion miles of capturing relevant data on edge cases.

 

[Knightshade]

Tesla mentioned the need for approximately 6 billion miles of training data for their Full Self-Driving (FSD) system in 2022. This estimate was discussed in various sources, including NextBigFuture.com and other web snippets, highlighting the importance of this extensive data for achieving a high level of autonomous driving capability.

Possibly relevant cite-

https://twitter.com/x/status/752190828798353408

 

[2daMoon]

I have a really hard time believing:

1) That they don’t already have a ton of that feedback, and
2) That they are not already aware of 100 significant issues known to need work.

Yet, they tell us they expect certain goals to be met at an estimate of 6 Billion miles being processed. There must be something they need more of to get there from here.

 

[Robertj]

Looks Ike FSD training is heating up

https://twitter.com/x/status/1778996541363216892

 

[Skryll]

Congratulations, I sense your glee and celebration! To whatever extent you contributed to this, BRAVO, well deserved!
And thanks for rejoining us here in this little wondersphere!

Just drove to a friends house and despite navigating showing the correct path, it turned into the parallel street and parked itself at the height of the house, but wrong street.

After parking and driving and activating again it drove the long U around the block to the correct side and parked itself in front of the correct house.

2020 x plus with 12.3.4

Parked didn't mean go into P but stays put in D.

 

[SO16]

He's also been quoted as saying other #s for various self-driving milestones.

Some folks will read this as it's a very hard problem, nobody knows the actual final answer and he is eternally optimistic, and thus has to revise that number over time.

Some folks will read this... less charitably.

Until it’s a solved problem, no one knows the answer for certain.

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1778914933721436454

 

[cliff harris]

Saying that 'elon said it needed X miles before' really doesn't sound persusaive to me in the context of what is happening.
There has been a MAJOR shift in the usefulness and accuracy of FSD going from V11 to V12. The web is flooded with people expressing their shock at the difference. Not only this, but they fundamentally changed the architecture of their solution when going from V11 to V12. This is no coincidence!
If feels like Tesla have been bouncing gently higher and higher on trampolines from versions 1 to 11, then suddenly discovered the technology of wings and are now soaring.
Lots of skeptics still point to the wrong predictions and slow progress back with the trampolines as evidence that the planes aren't going to cut it.

Yes its a shaky metaphor but its all I've got .

 

[Mike Smith]

If I was buying a Tesla today I'd definitely pay the $12,000 for FSD. And I don't think that price will be dropped. Over the next few years both the monthly rate and the purchase price are going to explode higher. Don't like it? Feel like you missed out? Too bad. Tesla will buy your car back from you though..

 

[hobbes]

Things that significantly improve public safety really shouldn’t be locked behind a subscription pay gate especially when all cars have the hardware and it’s merely a software toggle.

If FSD prevents accidents at high speed, can detect pedestrians and avoid hitting them, etc then doesn’t it seem a bit immoral to not make those features standard across the fleet? Not even for the driver’s sake, for the sake of other users on public roads.

The safety Autopilot features (Auto Emergeny Braking etc.) come free with a Tesla. Look at the regulator´s rankings/videos to see how well they work.

 

[hobbes]

I also got that email, but I’ m not sure if anything has changed. We were members in the past too.

I was a bit confused at first, too, but the email said:

As of April 13, we are updating the Supercharger fees. All customers will have the option to purchase a membership to access lower Supercharger prices. Higher prices will be charged without membership.

As a Tesla driver, you are automatically a member and can continue to benefit from the lower Supercharger membership prices.

No action is required on your part.

So it seems nothing is changing for us. Not sure why they sent the Email, maybe to make Tesla drivers realize they are privileged?

 

[hobbes]

Don't know about the US and the rest of the world but in Sweden I doubt that Tesla has more than a few percent of all charging revenue. Sweden has about 4,700 public charging stations and 35,000 charging points (Laddinfrastruktur i Sverige) whereas Tesla has about 90 superchargers (https://www.tesla.com/en_US/findus/list/superchargers/Sweden) Most charging stations here are run by the large electricity companies

You need to take into account fast charging vs. slow, because revenue per time is much different..

 

[winfield100]

Do you understand what the CEO has said time and time again about what would happen with the price of FSD as it got closer?

Do you also understand to bring in the same subscription revenue per month they have to add as many new subscribers as they had existing ones just to be revenue neutral?

OT OT OT
@DarkandStormy

What if my life was a series of imagined crises that never happen, but paralyzed you into inaction?

What if it isn't, and you keep moving forward, with ideas actualized that change the world for the better?

10.5 years example below, same driving force, expanding
(Gwen Shotwell is a true GODDESS)

may I remind you of
Monday, October 13th, 2013, 1st flight, and landing, of the Grasshopper
"Grasshopper is a 10-story Vertical Takeoff Vertical Landing (VTVL) ....,Grasshopper consists of a Falcon 9 rocket first stage tank, Merlin 1D engine, four steel and aluminum landing legs with hydraulic dampers, and a steel support structure." went up 744 meters
(read the comments over the years for illustrative insights over the years from 10 years ago and sooner)

Then a few short weeks ago
(BTW, the Washington monument is 169 meters tall, starship is 150 meters)
(in 10 years)
Thursday, March 24th, 2024, 3rd flight of the BFR/Starship/

"But that's not _Tesla_!!" <== true that, what's the driving force?,
a bit flawed perhaps, definitely not 100% correct, but successive approximations close enough

So, as for Tesla, Tony Seba posts 2 photos of New York City Easter parade, ~13 years apart of the switchover from horses to cars and the speed of the transition,
I would suggest the student go and review his work and perhaps revise your thought processes.

for wont of a better thought, perhaps we are in the midst of "punctuated evolution/distributed mini-singularities," others can be more precise

Those who can, do, those who can't, or won't, kvetch and kibbitz

 

[Usain]

Nobody needs FSD to provide training data to Tesla. Every Tesla is already hardware-capable and data-connected to Tesla. They can pull data from any car they want, whether the drivers have FSD or not.

In fact, you do NOT want people using FSD when they are generating training data. You don't want to train FSD on vehicles that have FSD engaged. You want to train it on people driving manually.

(James Douma agrees with me. Or more accurately, I agree with James Douma).

Tesla needs both. They need people driving manually for imitation learning. And they also need people using FSD to find and fix errors (disengagements and interventions).

 

[Mengy]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1778914933721436454

And there is that TSLA Bull Greed again.

I don't see this happening at all, nor do I think its feasible. At those prices most Tesla owners would never pay for FSD L3, L4 or L5 as its just too pricey. Plus it would make the entire FSD situation overly complicated, and Tesla as a company loves to simplify and avoid complications.

I think it's much more likely FSD gets divided into two categories in the near future:

1) Consumer FSD
2) Commercial FSD

#1 would be for a Tesla owner who just uses it for their own car, no RT fleet use, and #2 would be for the RT's, people using FSD to generate income from ride hailing.

 

[Buckminster]

And there is that TSLA Bull Greed again.

I don't see this happening at all, nor do I think its feasible. At those prices most Tesla owners would never pay for FSD L3, L4 or L5 as its just too pricey. Plus it would make the entire FSD situation overly complicated, and Tesla as a company loves to simplify and avoid complications.

I think it's much more likely FSD gets divided into two categories in the near future:

1) Consumer FSD
2) Commercial FSD

#1 would be for a Tesla owner who just uses it for their own car, no RT fleet use, and #2 would be for the RT's, people using FSD to generate income from ride hailing.

This is why my valuation assumes Tesla owns the entire fleet (except SEXY). Elon will likely reach this conclusion when only 30% are on the network at any one time after a year or so.

It's primarily about the mission, not my pocket...