Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[cliff harris]

I read some 'news' reporting quoting Gerber Kawasaki on his view on Tesla stock. He owns 3k shares. I own 10k. When are news sites going to ask my opinion? Its beyond ridiculous that some muppets like him and gordo get assigned the mythical status of 'Tesla shareholders and analysts', when there are a ton of us here with a bigger position, more insight, and more information.
I pity people who invest based on CNBC, the BBC, Guardian, NBC, any of em...

 

[Chunky Jr.]

I expect that the layoffs will not affect teams working in parts of the company which are considered to be future proof. The execs leaving now also did not work there.

Doesn't battery and drive train impact Robotaxis as well as traditional vehicles?

 

[cliff harris]

Maybe some big challenge he was working toward has finally been "solved" in the sense that the path is now clear and obvious...and there will just be more mundane work to plod along that path to bring it all to fruition. Perhaps in that regard, the work ahead looks less interesting.

Absolutely. The kind of people who enjoy research, are often not the same people who enjoy implementation. Working out the perfect chemistry and battery design is fascinating to some people. Managing the logistics of building all the metal/plastic/robots/staff to manufacture millions of them is very very different. Elon is very unusual in that he seems to enjoy both challenges. Hardly anyone is like that.

 

[2daMoon]

As Sam Altman said, “Elon desperately wants the world to be saved. But only if he can be the one to save it.” (source)
You may disagree but I personally find it accurate in this decade of reading/listening everything Elon said.

The simple fact that he wants to be able to "control" AI and doen't want to develop AGI at Tesla if he's not in control (i.e. 25% shares) speaks volume. I'm not even saying that he's wrong, just that he really, really, really likes to be in control (WaitButWhy profile called him "the nanomanager"). Dating divas, driving McLaren's, carefully building a 125M followers Twitter profile are other clues. The man has an ego the size of Texas, and this is kind of the reason why he is who he is.

This Altman quote is in regard to AI.

"only if he can be the one to save it" is Sam's slant on it. Sam took an "open source" project that Elon was part of and has made it commercial, or as close as he could without further breaking the charter that created the company.

Sam says this mostly because Elon is trying to keep OpenAI open, as he is with X.ai, in order to let THE ENTIRE WORLD be who keeps it safe. In no way does this indicate how this is about Elon's ego. It is about being less wrong.

Elon has been clear that AI has a very high potential to be detrimental to mankind if not carefully implemented. This concept is based on fairly simple logic. Ego is not required to figure this out.

He has stressed how an AI must be only ever programed with facts and seek an overall balance of truth because this is crucial in order to avoid political correctness being a part of the processing. The goal being to avoid an AI internal conflict such as what resulted in the outcome portrayed in 2001 A Space Odyssey, among other examples. How does this represent Elon having an ego problem?

Elon has repeatedly stated that someone must oversee this, and he has never indicated that this should or would be him, but rather, a group of people with the knowledge and expertise to do the job well.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Doesn't battery and drive train impact Robotaxis as well as traditional vehicles?

Battery and drive train are imho much less important for Robotaxi. They don’t require speed and performance, so the current technology will probably suffice. Cheap LFP batteries from Chinese suppliers which can be charged to 100% without much degradation are also just fine. No more need for revolutionary developments. I would not be surprised if Tesla eventually stops developing its own batteries. That would be a radical and maybe even painful decision, but Elon doesn’t care about sentiment.

 

[Krugerrand]

#1 I thought about posting these layoff rumors this weekend, but hoped someone else would as I am paid off by Bloomberg and Reuters.

Not surprisingly, no one posted anything. People are totally fine with posting bullish rumors, but everyone afraid to post not so nice rumors. That is a danger of making this place an echochamber.

This is the LONG TERM INVESTMENT thread. Layoffs are NOT -not-nice-rumors.

Pay attention. Tesla has done layoffs like this on MULTIPLE occasions throughout the last decade WHILE continuing to hire people. It is part of the business dynamics to trim the fat periodically. It is a SOUND business procedure and has ALWAYS served Tesla WELL.

Do you understand?

#2 Anyone with a lick of common sense could tell you Baglino and Patel were fired. There are no coincidences in these events.

Who cares? Fired? Retired? Took one for the team as part of the 10% company wide layoff because they were already thinking of calling it quits. Doesn’t matter. Not relevant.

#3 Layoffs in a stagnant company are fine, but for Tesla this means something different as the company is valued on big future expected growth. The layoffs are a signal that demand are margins aren't coming back anytime soon. This gives more uncertainty as to what automotive margins will stabilize to, and less certainty to big investors for how much to value the company.

‍ Tesla is in a period of transition between two growth phases. It’s the PERFECT time to layoff redundant employees and those not needed for future projects.

Where do you even get your ideas from? It’s like you don’t understand good business practices at all, and certainly not Tesla business.

#4 Drew being fired may indicate 4680 progress is still stalled.

 

[Tony73]

The recent executive departures confirm my view that nobody senior can outshine Elon or even appear to in any way.

I have previously mentioned that Tesla needs executives like Gwynne Shotwell to get the basic but mundane things done well in Tesla.

After todays departures I have realised that she is also the ideal executive in another way in that even though she is very important in the smooth running of spacex she keeps a low profile plus she isn’t an engineer so that helps in Elon getting all the publicity for spacex.

With regards to tesla this issue arguably hasn’t hurt the company but if the day comes when the whole senior management/ engineers are mediocre yes men then we will be in trouble.

Gwynn Shotwell is an engineer by training and she certainly started out her career doing engineering.

 

[cliff harris]

#1 I thought about posting these layoff rumors this weekend, but hoped someone else would as I am paid off by Bloomberg and Reuters.

Not surprisingly, no one posted anything. People are totally fine with posting bullish rumors, but everyone afraid to post not so nice rumors. That is a danger of making this place an echochamber.

#2 Anyone with a lick of common sense could tell you Baglino and Patel were fired. There are no coincidences in these events.

#3 Layoffs in a stagnant company are fine, but for Tesla this means something different as the company is valued on big future expected growth. The layoffs are a signal that demand are margins aren't coming back anytime soon. This gives more uncertainty as to what automotive margins will stabilize to, and less certainty to big investors for how much to value the company.

#4 Drew being fired may indicate 4680 progress is still stalled.

On the bright side, obviously layoffs can help reduce costs and assuming production isn't cut too much, would mean higher earnings.

Presumably with your telepathic ability to know the terms of Baglino going, you also knew why Straubel went, and sold all your stock in panic on that day.
So why are you here? If a senior employee leaving is a doom sign for the stock, why did you not sell after straubel? or after karparthy? or after zach?
You are asserting that drew was fired, despite an exchange on X with elon today that implies it was amicable. You have no more insight into this than anyone, but are hoping to establish your opinion as fact.

 

[Drax7]

Releasing supervised FSD for $99 per month should have had a
Positive effect on the stock.

Because it implies additional adoption and revenue and progress
Towards full autonomy.

Instead it gets ignored and buried with these layoffs.

Moreover, It seems tesla cannot keep its top management , as they
Prefer leaving to babysit their children.

I am starting to wonder …whether I am irrational
Or the market is irrational.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

I would not be surprised if Tesla stops developing its own batteries.

now that would be a good reason for Drew to leave and makes a lot of sense. Tesla had to build batteries because no one else was in the quantity they needed, now they are becoming a cheap commodity.

 

[ggies07]

Battery and drive train are imho much less important for Robotaxi. They don’t require speed and performance, so the current technology will probably suffice. Cheap LFP batteries from Chinese suppliers which can be charged to 100% without much degradation are also just fine. No more need for revolutionary developments. I would not be surprised if Tesla eventually stops developing its own batteries. That would be a radical and maybe even painful decision, but Elon doesn’t care about sentiment.

umm...so what about the cathode and lithium plants?........

 

[Zaddy Daddy]

I would ask that our regular bad news bears refrain from stating their opinions as facts.....but I know that would fall on deaf agenda's...oops I mean ears.

So instead, I suggest speed scrolling past the usual suspects.

Everyone here has opinions. You just don't like some and want everyone to quash them.

I suggest people think for themselves and not caving to peer pressure on who and who not to listen to.

 

[Krugerrand]

If Drew was just burned out, why not take a sabbatical instead of leaving the company?

Um, because he didn’t want to.

IMHO, people that love their jobs and have been at a company a long time don't bail unless something has caused them to no longer love their jobs, or there is a better opportunity elsewhere. Or it wasn't their choice. I don't buy "I wanted to spend more time with my family"

Firstly, he didn’t ‘bail’. 18 years is a bail!? What even -

Don’t believe him then. Nobody cares, least of all Drew. I’ll just remind you not to ever state your opinion on this as a fact down the road.

 

[jerry33]

Why didn't he bail a year ago? Two years ago? Same conditions applied.

Most likely because there were critical issues he didn't want to abandon until they were past the point where he was 100% needed, or he felt he hadn't trained his replacement enough. (or perhaps it was as simple as "you either quit or I'll get a divorce"--No I don't think that's actually the reason).

 

[cliff harris]

Moreover, It seems tesla cannot keep its top management , as they
Prefer leaving to babysit their children.

Imagine being someone who has young kids, and has done 18 years at Tesla, working insane hours. Your are also worth tens if not hundreds of millions of dollars. You never ever have to work again in your life. If you stay at Tesla, you will miss almost all of your kids growing up.
What would you do? I think its amazing people last 18 years at Tesla. I wouldnt.

 

[Drumheller]

Oh no. I'm the biz dev director of an IT company and I'm taking a half-year sabbatical next month. The plan is to bike from Vienna to Istanbul before traveling across South America. I got a stock package a few week ago so I hope I won't get fired from the company when I come back.

Oh wait, no worry: I work at a French company and taking a sabbatical is a legal right

Yes, congrats on living in France. That's not reality for workers in the USA.

 

[Krugerrand]

Why didn't he bail a year ago? Two years ago? Same conditions applied.

Stop it. Go ask him yourself and then report back. Unless you want me to list the million possible reasonable reasons why anyone gets up one morning and decides today is the day.

 

[Zaddy Daddy]

In Drew’s own words…”I made the difficult decision to move on from Tesla after 18 years yesterday.”

This sure doesn’t sound like he was fired.

Yeah Rohan also made it sound like it was his decision.

As we know both didn't suddenly make their decision this weekend, do you think both let Elon know months ago they were going to leave, and he told them to hold on until a certain date?

The way the layoff news came out, I doubt Elon knew or indicated to people months ago that layoffs were happening...but not for a few months. Elon likes to act quickly.

There were recruiters in Tesla Energy just a few weeks ago trying to hire, then shut down. So I think the layoffs were very recently planned and fed down the chain.

If Drew made the decision yesterday, I opine he was basically forced probably because of some layoffs he didn't reallly want to do.

 

[AudubonB]

I don't think I've heard that the production line is shut down. I only saw/read that deliveries are paused for about a week.

If the fix, once finalized, can be easily done "in the field," I would expect that production and shipping will continue, and they just need to finalize the fix and then implement it before delivery.

We don't know what the fix is...and there will be some evaluation, design, and testing as Tesla works it out. For all we know, the pedal adhesive just needs to sit for a week with zero stress (ie: zero use of the pedal) so that it can cure to full strength. Or maybe there will be a different adhesive procedure. Or a different batch of adhesive. Or a different adhesive entirely. Or maybe it does need a screw. Or maybe the pedal cover will be redesigned with an extra bend or two to mechanically secure it to the pedal.

We did here that the 12-hour factory shifts were reduced to 11...but I wouldn't consider that a shutdown. And, Joe Tegtmeyer's observations today (tweet with images below) seem to show many Cybertrucks produced at the factory and waiting outside...so based on that, I don't think production has been shut down:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1779880383657468111

As a couple posts have shown now (including at least 2 much better than mine) there is no screw

it's not a case of they forgot to tighten something- it's that the design of the pedal seems, in real world use, to inherently leads to failures. See both the post about forcing being horizontal vs. vertical, and the cover being secured with a lip in other models vs just adhesive on the CT.

So I'd think either a better adhesive (or a revision to the application/curing of it possibly), or a redesigned cover, would need to be the fix if the other posts are accurate.

1. Yes. I think I’d have been better to have written something like “…then why on earth would they shut the line…” in order to emphasize that I was rebutting those who are saying it was shut. Thank you.

2. Yes. That is why I wrote “screws (etc.)”. I will say it is mysterious that issues with such a user-interactive item like an accelerator pedal had not shown up in all the months and miles of pre-production testings. That’s odd.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Um, because he didn’t want to.

Firstly, he didn’t ‘bail’. 18 years is a bail!? What even -

Don’t believe him then. Nobody cares, least of all Drew. I’ll just remind you not to ever state your opinion on this as a fact down the road.

I'm not stating my opinion as fact. I'm saying we should be skeptical and look for potential issues until proven otherwise. If there are red flags buried in this, as investors it seems like we should be looking for them just in case. Hopefully it is nothing, but I don't want to conclude that based on info we have so far.