Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[2daMoon]

Moreover, It seems tesla cannot keep its top management , as they
Prefer leaving to babysit their children.

Maybe it hasn't occurred to you how "Tesla's top management" are in the wings, and yet to reach the top?

 

[Cobbler]

Cuck chair > shares without voting right?

Or simply watching your shares getting f***ed and simply sit it out?

In the world of investing, patience is not just a virtue; it’s a strategy. For those who have been holding Tesla shares since 2014 like me, you’ve seen the ebb and flow, the highs and lows, and yet, you’ve held on. Remember, every visionary journey has its bumps, but it’s the long road that leads to the greatest destinations. Keep faith in the long-term vision, for the story of innovation is written over time, not overnight. Stay steadfast

 

[Zaddy Daddy]

This is the LONG TERM INVESTMENT thread. Layoffs are NOT -not-nice-rumors.

Pay attention. Tesla has done layoffs lime this on MULTIPLE occasions throughout the last decade WHILE continuing to hire people. It is part of the business dynamics to trim the fat periodically. It is a SOUND business procedure and has ALWAYS served Tesla WELL.

Do you understand?

Who cares? Fired? Retired? Took one for the team as part of the 10% company wide layoff because they were already thinking of calling it quits. Doesn’t matter. Not relevant.

‍ Tesla is in a period of transition between two growth phases. It’s the PERFECT time to layoff redundant employees and those not needed for future projects.

Layoffs are normal at every company.

Layoffs at a company valued for high earnings growth (PE ratio of 60!!!) while earnings are shrinking, is not normal. Well not normal for a healthy company.

Long term, investors need to be wary of what long term gross margins are operating margins are going to settle to. Issues such as the 4680 debacle (the extreme delay and fact it is still slowly ramping is a debacle) affect both growth and cost reduction trajectories. You may not like it, but this affects valuation even long term.

 

[jerry33]

2. Yes. That is why I wrote “screws (etc.)”. I will say it is mysterious that issues with such a user-interactive item like an accelerator pedal had not shown up in all the months and miles of pre-production testings. That’s odd.

Probably volume production vs pilot production. Even though they are both on the same line, there's a difference between what happens with three trucks a day and 500 (or whatever) trucks a day.

 

[Krugerrand]

Don't leave out the CT production line hour trim, the vehicles piling up in the pipeline, the still unexplained talk of the M2 going on the back burner with the only response being a knee-jerk announcement of a many months from now unveiling date for RT, chopping the FSD subscription price in half...
Clearly everything is going great!
What I do know is the margins are going to stay in a more normal range for auto companies moving forward.

Meh. It’s one hour. Here’s the math - very close to a 10% reduction. Do I need to connect the dots for you?

The message seems clear to me. Do what you’re doing with 10% less resources. I like it. The leaner and meaner Tesla gets, the better my investment looks.

 

[Krugerrand]

Oh no. I'm the biz dev director of an IT company and I'm taking a half-year sabbatical next month. The plan is to bike from Vienna to Istanbul before traveling across South America. I got a stock package a few week ago so I hope I won't get fired from the company when I come back.

Oh wait, no worry: I work at a French company and taking a sabbatical is a legal right

Not relevant, but have fun.

 

[Unpilot]

Sorry say again...scrolled right past.

 

[Krugerrand]

Releasing supervised FSD for $99 per month should have had a
Positive effect on the stock.

Because it implies additional adoption and revenue and progress
Towards full autonomy.

Instead it gets ignored and buried with these layoffs.

Moreover, It seems tesla cannot keep its top management , as they
Prefer leaving to babysit their children.

I am starting to wonder …whether I am irrational
Or the market is irrational.

Yes

 

[Krugerrand]

I'm not stating my opinion as fact. I'm saying we should be skeptical and look for potential issues until proven otherwise. If there are red flags buried in this, as investors it seems like we should be looking for them just in case. Hopefully it is nothing, but I don't want to conclude that based on info we have so far.

Why?

Why are you not taking Drew’s word for it? Did he lie to you before? Do you know him personally?

No. I absolutely do not agree with being skeptical for skeptical’s sake and to go looking for a lie. Absolutely, no. I will never go looking for a dead body buried in my neighbor’s yard just because my other neighbor is paranoid.

What is wrong with people? ‍ This is exactly why nobody is invited.

Drew is NOT Tesla. The company isn’t suddenly done because he left for whatever reason. He’s as replaceable as everyone who came before, during, or after.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Max is 175, and 170 has some peaking activity below.

It looks like a Christmas Tree right? (I added the star for looks).

 

[Krugerrand]

Layoffs are normal at every company.

Layoffs at a company valued for high earnings growth (PE ratio of 60!!!) while earnings are shrinking, is not normal. Well not normal for a healthy company.

Long term, investors need to be wary of what long term gross margins are operating margins are going to settle to. Issues such as the 4680 debacle (the extreme delay and fact it is still slowly ramping is a debacle) affect both growth and cost reduction trajectories. You may not like it, but this affects valuation even long term.

Says who? You? Are you a financial investment advisor? I’ll pass regardless. You’re not the first to prematurely pull the fire alarm. Get in line.

Mark my words. My investment will be just fine. But hey, maybe you can convince some others to sell. Carry on.

 

[Chartered321]

AI is gonna make Tesla products (cars, robots, anything FSD especially) the best in all their cathegories. Microeconomically we're seeing reactions and proactive behaviour vs bad macro, and inaction vs media which I find hilarious even though I admit it can hurt the stock price short term movements. Relatively speaking though Tesla is taking the lead vs all the rest once again. Hybrid vehicles are a distraction. Safety is key. You can do the maths in case you agree (and therefore disagree with WS). Imagine when the masses understand that you can't have FSD in a non EV...

 

[Unpilot]

There has never been a company like Tesla.
Yet we have the resident experts telling us what is normal...or not for Tesla.

I'll pass on that advice.

 

[Usain]

I am starting to wonder …whether I am irrational
Or the market is irrational.

Neither. Both are rational.

If you think robotaxi and Bots will not happen, it is perfectly rational to value Tesla as just an auto company.

If you think robotaxi and/or Bots will happen, it is perfectly rational to value Tesla as the most valuable company in the world.

 

[Linkmeup]

Great visual of the potential of what Tesla and Boring Company are partnering on to work towards -

https://twitter.com/x/status/1779772236645183811

 

[GatorMeat]

Releasing supervised FSD for $99 per month should have had a
Positive effect on the stock.

Because it implies additional adoption and revenue and progress
Towards full autonomy.

Instead it gets ignored and buried with these layoffs.

Moreover, It seems tesla cannot keep its top management , as they
Prefer leaving to babysit their children.

I am starting to wonder …whether I am irrational
Or the market is irrational.

It's likely much easier for them to quit and babysit their children instead of continuing to babysit their part-time CEO boss who demands they work double time. Elon's turn into wannabe politico social media influencer likely plays a roll in execs leaving. They've had enough.

 

[EVNow]

now that would be a good reason for Drew to leave and makes a lot of sense. Tesla had to build batteries because no one else was in the quantity they needed, now they are becoming a cheap commodity.

And Tesla's batteries turned out to be not so great, after all.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Oops, bought some more... again today. Who knows.

IMHO (and may have more):

1. Drew leaving has zero impact on my investment strategy. Kids mean something to me, and I'd want to do even better at his age (41).
2. Middle East counter attack is unlikely, but some possible surgical strikes at times.
3. We are talking way too much about CyberTruck pedal screw.
4. There appear to be no accidents on FSD wide release, and my demo rides are all going very well (boring in fact).
5. Layoff is normal - gotta shift focus to Optimus and FSD resources now (hiring ongoing).
6. TSLA Volume is high today, from BS short selling, plus some fear in there. And... it's Monday.
7. Pests and FUD are still hanging around, so might have to buy more after earnings - IF we get a chance so not planning on it.
8. Jim Crammer thinks TSLA follows Elon's popularity... so let's bash Elon week! So obvious.

 

[Zero CO2]

Absolutely. The kind of people who enjoy research, are often not the same people who enjoy implementation. Working out the perfect chemistry and battery design is fascinating to some people. Managing the logistics of building all the metal/plastic/robots/staff to manufacture millions of them is very very different. Elon is very unusual in that he seems to enjoy both challenges. Hardly anyone is like that.

spot on .. i think Karpathy left for this reason in terms of the FSD mgmt job vs the research and development job

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Why are you not taking Drew’s word for it? Did he lie to you before? Do you know him personally?

because I've heard "leaving to spend more time with my family" a million times and far more often than not it isn't true. I think it is the "dog ate my homework" excuse for leaving a company.

I'm a cynical person by nature, so that is my reaction

I don't think Tesla is doomed, and he can be replaced, but I do think there is a reason for this departure beyond the stated one. If he has a better opportunity, great! If he really is burned out and wants a break, then that's great too. If he has a problem with the direction of the company, or a conflict with Elon, then that is not so great.