Elon needs to be able to explain his vision for robotaxis without crapping all over the existing business. No one needs to hear Tesla is worth zero without autonomy or that auto margins don’t matter or gen3 is irrelevant. That is my biggest fear for the robotaxi event; that the biggest headlines will not be about robotaxis but about Musk downplaying auto.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
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Elon needs to be able to explain his vision for robotaxis without crapping all over the existing business. No one needs to hear Tesla is worth zero without autonomy or that auto margins don’t matter or gen3 is irrelevant. That is my biggest fear for the robotaxi event; that the biggest headlines will not be about robotaxis but about Musk downplaying auto.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Design work is finished on those products now. That's what Drew was doing, most notably he was the front man for the 4680 development project. Now it's all about production. That's up to Lars for the pilot line now being created in Austin, and then up to Tom Zhu for additional factory construction.
If I was Drew, I'd feel like I've done my part already. Good time to take a break. When he's rested he'll see what's next. Remember how JB Straubel quit Tesla? Then he came back as a member of the board of directors? I don't think we've seen the last of Drew Baglino.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Hedge funds, via Roth Capital partners and teslack, obvs. Also available on cable financial news TV.
I have to admit I'm a bit rattled too, at least for the prospects of TSLA over the next couple of years. Very long term I'm still confident, but near term I'm concerned.
And I admit my fear might be unfounded, but I do feel it.
If the Gen3 consumer car really is "scrapped" and Elon is pivoting to full on RT's, then I feel the stock will be in for some very hard times for at least a few years. Without the Gen3 consumer version there won't be much growth potential for Tesla "near" term. Sure Megapacks are ramping nicely but its still the beginning of the S curve, its early. We need many more Mega Factories. M3 and MY likely won't ramp much higher than they currently are at, and CT will ramp but only to something like 250K per year, and that won't be for another couple of years due to the 4680's ramping slowly.
Gen3 was the next growth phase of Tesla, without it we don't have much in the near term.
In the long term, sure FSD will one day get solved and RT's will be possible. But even at the point FSD becomes L5 there will still be a LOT of work to get RT's into full swing. The RT's need to be manufactured, their production lines need to be built. RT centers need to be built where they can charge and be cleaned and serviced. The software for the RT services needs to be created. There is a lot of infrastructure work to go along with an RT service, and that all comes after FSD is solved and the RT itself is being made. That's probably many years away yet until we see it contribute to TSLA in any meaningful way. I'd say 2030 at the earliest.
Without the $25K compact, Optimus is honestly our best chance to see TSLA beat our ATH of $415 anytime "soon". And by soon I mean within the next few years. Optimus could be deployed and sold to customers much faster than building an RT service could. But Optimus volume production & sales is still many years away yet too.
Before this month I was fairly confident TSLA would beat its ATH by sometime late next year, once Gen3 was in production and being sold, and once the Fed had well started lowering rates. Now, IF these rumors of the compact being killed are indeed true (IF), then I don't think we'll be seeing $415 again for a great many years. Honestly I couldn't even predict it as the course of Tesla would be so uncertain without Gen3 going into production next year.
Q1 ER will be interesting but I fear it will be disappointing and not very informative. 8/8 should give us a much clearer picture of what the next few years hold for Tesla and TSLA. My gut tells me we won't be getting much clarity until 8/8, and as a TSLA investor I really hate that.
Megapacks could be a significant driver as well
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Pardon, are you still under the impression that the market reacts to what it "should" do? You don't need to look at the news to see what the share price is going to do. Just look at the options open interest, that's all that matters. How are the big boys are positioned for options expiring on Friday. This week, they are moving their puts into the money. Period. Full-stop.
“According to sources familiar with the matter, Musk told Tesla’s team in Austin in December 2023 that NV9, an expansion of Gigafactory Texas for the new cheaper next-gen model, was a priority for 2024.
However, the project was recently completely defunded, and many people involved in it were laid off as part of the round of layoffs announced today.
Instead, Musk said that he wanted Tesla to focus on the south expansion of Gigafactory Texas, which is going to house a giant data center for the Robotaxi project.
According to people familiar with the project, it is already behind schedule, and there’s serious doubt that it can be completed by the end of August, which is the timeline Musk has been pushing for.
Shortly after denying the report that the cheaper model was canceled, Musk announced that Tesla would unveil its Robotaxi on August 8th.”
However, the project was recently completely defunded, and many people involved in it were laid off as part of the round of layoffs announced today.
Instead, Musk said that he wanted Tesla to focus on the south expansion of Gigafactory Texas, which is going to house a giant data center for the Robotaxi project.
According to people familiar with the project, it is already behind schedule, and there’s serious doubt that it can be completed by the end of August, which is the timeline Musk has been pushing for.
Shortly after denying the report that the cheaper model was canceled, Musk announced that Tesla would unveil its Robotaxi on August 8th.”
If you truly believe in FSD and robo-taxis, then yeah, maybe load up the truck on stock and hold on tight (not investment advice, do your own research!). I was watching the latest episode of Batteries Included podcast and agree with Tom's assessment in the last episode. Until you can sleep in the backseat on a long trip, robotaxi's aren't much use outside of heavily dense cities and even then, I can see cities wanting a "cut" to allow this.
I don't need nor think many people will need a robo taxi for a 5-10 minute drive down the store to buy simple stuff in America that is spread out, car dependent, quick, easy, not tiring, and you need to load up the car and still have to get home, etc...
A robo taxi would be nice if I wanted to get to say, Los Angeles and it's a 3 hour drive from San Diego, etc...How much would Tesla charge me for this privilege for that ride? How about a ride to the bay area and that's 10 hours? Should I just fly instead? Would it be cheaper than an Uber? Would Uber/Lyft be dead/out of business once this is in production/live?
The EV adoption tanked across the board because EVs simply cost too much $ for most poor Americans, there are much higher interest rates now (a lot of car buyers have no $$). Some posts I see here have to finance if you browse some of the other threads and some try to convince themselves to get a newer Tesla even though their old one is fine (and they are totally underwater right now as well). With 50% of people disagreeing on everything, EVs = progressive/Biden supporting/political statement so they won't buy it even if it makes sense.
Did a search and stumbled over this post on Reddit. Don't have an account there so could not help the poster.
But interesting to see that people want to buy a Tesla because of auto driving!
But interesting to see that people want to buy a Tesla because of auto driving!
Captkerosene
Member
My take is that he's cleaning house on the 4680 to get new blood in there and get it fixed. We need the 4680 to scale fast.
Remember the guy that left not too long ago that said we were doing the DBE wrong? Maybe he was right.
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
I've walked the CT assembly line. It is not "unboxed" as it was described.
It seems, if anything, Cybertruck might be a dress rehearsal for a stainless steel $25K car, or, Robotaxi
Agreed. It should take considerably less space than is being used for the Model Y or the CT. They probably have room for several unboxed production lines.
Tesla does have plans to increase the workforce at GigaTexas. The layoffs won't affect that. They will need more parking.
I don't think you have any idea how much unused space they have at GigaTexas. With the latest addition, the factory will be nearly a mile long. The ground floor section of the CT assembly line was less than a half-mile in length, and likely less than a quarter of the width of the building.
It would be appreciated if they didn't spend any time at all on anything beyond the Q1 financials. Maybe reconfirm that they aim to produce 2M vehicles this year. Vaguely answer a few questions. Thank everyone for all the usual stuff.
I hope they keep information about timelines for the vehicle and FSD to themselves. Show us what it looks like, talk about how it will change the world. Drop hints that generate more of a buzz about it. Thank everyone for attending.
Edit: corrected length of CT line. Meant to say less than a half mile in length.
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2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
Is there any particular reason you routinely avoid mentioning the source for the quoted content you post?
Robotaxis are useful in every scenario that an Uber is useful.
When describing the unboxed process I think Lars used the phase "just like Cybertruck".
When they are attaching the panels at the end of the process it doesn't matter if they are stainless steel or painted, painted might require a bit more care.
My best guess at this stage is the 25K car and the Robotaxi both use the unboxed process and similar components, but they are (now) different enough to require separate lines and only the Robotaxi line is being built at present, it might not be a matter of space. 4680 cell supply, staff, or components could be the limitation.
These staff layoffs also indicate that Tesla is being "frugal" and wants to be "lean and mean". Ramping 2 different Gen3 lines at the same time would not fit that approach. Once we know the Robotaxi business model, we might have more idea about why they are being "frugal".
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Watch Steven Peeters video on YouTube from the last couple of days about FSD approval in Europe being delayed for the indefinite future.
Rohan was the Tesla executive that was working closest on this project. Perhaps he sees this ruling as an insurmountable obstacle. And we know that Elon won't stop for some government rules, he's going to carry on until it is approved.
Meanwhile, Model 2 will be built in Europe (likely at Giga Berlin), and most likely it will have a removable steering wheel and pedals. Robo taxis will wake up all at once with approval. How do Germans say "Après moi, le déluge"?
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
Plus:
No driver to deal with.
Multi-car households with reliable access to Robotaxi may decide to become a one-car household and save money, space, time by using Robotaxi for 90% of their local trips.
All Robotaxis come with a built-in SEP Field Generator. All aspects of maintenance, cleaning, charging, insurance, etc. are covered by the Somebody Else's Problem field.
I dont know why it would be “interesting” that everyone would want a car which can drive itself - that’s not “intersting” it’s crazy obvious. The major automakers are now one more release like v13 away from taking a *sugar* the size of the titanic! There is no amount of cheap design crap you can put in a car to compete with a similar car that can drive itself.
Since that would mean ten years at least of tsla bring able to sell every single car it makes - it could be like ford, just make them all black with no options - if they drive themselves you don’t need any other options.
that would fund a robotaxi plan. i have yet to see they super cheap pricing (like 50 cents a mile) one would need to give up your own car which is like $1 a mile. current taxis are like $3 a mile and the use is limited as one would expect.
well we will see. one possibility is that robotaxis do not affect legacy auto enough, that would make me sad
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
It is easy to speculate. Nobody on this side of things knows anything with any degree of certainty. Talking about the possibilities really doesn't change that. Tesla being frugal has never prevented them from building huge factories, producing more cars than anyone ever expected them too, or from putting those who doubted their mission in their place as each new achievement was reached.
My trust is in the folks at Tesla to make good decisions and bring these products to the world as quickly as they can manage to do so. Nothing I've seen discourages me in the slightest from maintaining that point of view.
The only thing I have a smidgen of certainty about is how there is a greater than zero chance we will see surprises from Tesla before the year is over.
Auto- (prefix): "Auto-" is a prefix derived from Greek, meaning "self" or "same." It is used in various compound words to indicate self-operation or self-action, such as "autonomous" (self-governing) or "autopilot" (a device for steering an aircraft or ship).
Drumheller
Active Member
Seems like confirmation that Elon has decided to bet the company again. I think it's unnecessary to take that approach at this point and adds risk that wasn't needed.
Elon has a good track record. Time to decide in / out again for the ride.
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