I have to admit today's news stories have me more rattled than any day in the last 2+ years....MUCH more so than when I watched the stock plummet to $101 or whatever it was. I'm already well underwater on tsla...this doesn't help.
I have to admit I'm a bit rattled too, at least for the prospects of TSLA over the next couple of years. Very long term I'm still confident, but near term I'm concerned.
And I admit my fear might be unfounded, but I do feel it.
If the Gen3 consumer car really is "scrapped" and Elon is pivoting to full on RT's, then I feel the stock will be in for some very hard times for at least a few years. Without the Gen3 consumer version there won't be much growth potential for Tesla "near" term. Sure Megapacks are ramping nicely but its still the beginning of the S curve, its early. We need many more Mega Factories. M3 and MY likely won't ramp much higher than they currently are at, and CT will ramp but only to something like 250K per year, and that won't be for another couple of years due to the 4680's ramping slowly.
Gen3 was the next growth phase of Tesla, without it we don't have much in the near term.
In the long term, sure FSD will one day get solved and RT's will be possible. But even at the point FSD becomes L5 there will still be a LOT of work to get RT's into full swing. The RT's need to be manufactured, their production lines need to be built. RT centers need to be built where they can charge and be cleaned and serviced. The software for the RT services needs to be created. There is a lot of infrastructure work to go along with an RT service, and that all comes after FSD is solved and the RT itself is being made. That's probably many years away yet until we see it contribute to TSLA in any meaningful way. I'd say 2030 at the earliest.
Without the $25K compact, Optimus is honestly our best chance to see TSLA beat our ATH of $415 anytime "soon". And by soon I mean within the next few years. Optimus could be deployed and sold to customers much faster than building an RT service could. But Optimus volume production & sales is still many years away yet too.
Before this month I was fairly confident TSLA would beat its ATH by sometime late next year, once Gen3 was in production and being sold, and once the Fed had well started lowering rates. Now, IF these rumors of the compact being killed are indeed true (IF), then I don't think we'll be seeing $415 again for a great many years. Honestly I couldn't even predict it as the course of Tesla would be so uncertain without Gen3 going into production next year.
Q1 ER will be interesting but I fear it will be disappointing and not very informative. 8/8 should give us a much clearer picture of what the next few years hold for Tesla and TSLA. My gut tells me we won't be getting much clarity until 8/8, and as a TSLA investor I really hate that.