Sales continue to slump in China.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
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Sales continue to slump in China.
The denial of demand issues is getting totally absurd. As @Troy states, Europe already had plenty of inventory. And the trajectory is still flat along all the other quarters (which didn't have supply chain issues). Since Q1 is always the weakest, doesn't really make sense it was somehow "held back" vs the rest...
BTW Dodger, now that Tesla has delivered 380k in Q1, and maybe 800k in the first half of 2024, are you going to correct your assertion that they will deliver up to 2.5 million this year?
Right now Tesla would have to deliver 500k in Q3 and Q4 just to get to 1.8 million.
I'm crudely estimating:
Q1: 380k
Q2: 420k
Q3: 480k
Q4: 550k
That gets me to 1.93 million. I think 2 million is the near the max that can probably happen. What do you think?
What you said was:
You can't possibly know what everyone else here thinks. As a matter of fact, a number of others have posted similar sentiments. That's why I disagreed.
facts do not fit the recent FUD narrative here on TMC
look at 2018 just as the M3 was ramping ... we had the same hand wringing going on at that time ... oh no they are cutting workers the M3 is a failure ... sky is falling
Same problem in the US.
Self driving buses seem like a significant challenge for a market that's a tiny % of cars, and Elon doesn't believe in fixed route public transport, and I anticipate lots of harassment for self driving buses from pedestrians and motorists, at least in the US. Maybe this could be developed someday per a lucrative govt contract.
True. There is an emerging narrative of "Who would want to buy a car that you have to drive manually?"
I'm starting to believe this narrative to some degree because for the first time, with V12, I'm addicted to using FSD. I'm getting to the point where I really hate to drive manually.
same here 12.3.4 is pretty amazing ... still have disengagements but most are due to my level of comfort as a driver ...second guessing FSD
if i was a passenger looking at my phone or otherwise distracted i would probably not even notice
one more thing .. i had pretty much stopped using FSDb on local streets , it was more work than i was willing to do ... not so with 12.3.4
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Interesting. I would have thought one wouldn't bother in a city but you feel the same way there too? Was it "instant love" or is it something you slowly get used to like? In your view, would one month's free subscription be enough to make you hooked?
Tesla China: Layoffs Hit Operations Way Harder Than Musk Let On - Gear Musk
Tesla layoffs in China were significantly more severe than Elon Musk's stated 10% global workforce reduction, with some teams seeing staff cuts of up to 50%.
gearmusk.com
Just the usual "fat trimming" in which two named executives resigned on the same day?
cliff harris
Member
You DO realize that you can just go look at the financials and see for yourself the $29billion in cash right?
Why on earth do you think that having cash means you never fire people. I still recall firing someone who was not generating a positive return on what I was paying, despite my company still making very decent money. Even thriving businesses should not carry any dead weight.
Be honest, have you ever worked anywhere where you couldn't spot the 10% of workers who contributed less than their salary justified? It turns out at twitter the number was 75%...
Okay….. somebody smarter than me please explain to me how a person with about 22% of the stock can outvote the other 78% of the stock, if push comes to shove?? Some people must agree with him, I guess. However, I’ve been around such fights and they are ugly. Sometimes they result in the originator of the company being pushed out. I’m not saying we’re here yet, but the biggies holding big chunks of stock outside the company can’t be happy with the direction of the stock- or the idea of betting a $100billion plus company on the farm. Just a doofus here who bought a few shares for entertainment more than anything. However I really like their product and hate to see it messed up. On a different note, 12.3.4 is working, more or less, on my unicorn S and I’m encouraged. As long as I’m legal to drive, I won’t be using it, but, as I’m rapidly approaching triple digits, I will be using it then.
Payload has a huge impact, try it and see, go offroad with half a ton in back. Towing, larger yet. Your comment.."strategies to provide electrical charging to an advancing force" is about all one needs to know. It does not exist. You don't send light mobile units into the field unless you know they can stay mobile. ICE can pretty much fuel from anything, a mrap or the equivalent. If sent to middle east do you think there are already tens of thousands of petrol solutions available? Pipelines, tanker trucks, gas stations, steel drum with 40 gallons of diesel. Maybe one day when electrification is largely built out this would be viable. Now..not so much.
CT is neat, a military vehicle it is not.
GhostSkater
Member
Wow
All but four open positions for the US are gone, Germany has a lot but that might change in the coming days
Hopefully that changes in the coming days or weeks, was getting ready to finally give my shot in applying even if the chance is basically the same as the one Mary has leading in EVs
All but four open positions for the US are gone, Germany has a lot but that might change in the coming days
Hopefully that changes in the coming days or weeks, was getting ready to finally give my shot in applying even if the chance is basically the same as the one Mary has leading in EVs
I am puzzled about 12.3.4 - compared to 12.3.3 it is less solid in picking lanes and made more mistakes, but noticed something else - it seems to have more a mind of its own. For example it will not always take the route the navigation displays. Did they turn off some guardrails because of progress in planning ? Was 12.3.3 not as free to make decisions as end to end neuronal network architecture suggested and 12.3.4 is ?
I'll point out that the accuracy of your conclusion goes down as the inverse of the square of the number of suppositions in your foundation. In this case I see at least S=2 ("if" and "probably"), thus I give the chances of you being right at 1/(2^2)=0.25 = 25%
From Gear Musk other post says: "Elon moves to wartime CEO mode at Tesla. Unlike past crises, though, this latest contraction is a proactive measure rather than a desperate react-and-pivot." Tesla Going All In on RobotaxisTesla China: Layoffs Hit Operations Way Harder Than Musk Let On - Gear Musk
Tesla layoffs in China were significantly more severe than Elon Musk's stated 10% global workforce reduction, with some teams seeing staff cuts of up to 50%.
Just the usual "fat trimming" in which two named executives resigned on the same day?
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Troy is pointing out EU sales have been roughly flat for 6 quarters in a row
How many pinocchios does blaming two production interruptions in Q1 to explain that get- especially when inventory never got low enough for a week or two of lost production there to matter?
That's great- but if the most recent reports of RT-only cars, with Gen3 consumer car on the back burner are true, that won't matter. There'll be more FSD subscriptions on the same 1.8M in sales, which is great, but it doesn't, remotely, get you to Teslas 20M/yr goal, nor advance the mission significantly.
With FSD insufficient for RT, to use your words, only a cheaper next-gen vehicle does those things.
If you back out the one-off tax valuation in Q4 they had ~2 billion in net income. That's not really tens of billions (though admittedly you don't say over what length of time you're talking, maybe you mean entire company history or something, but otherwise)
And without FSD per your wording, and with a next-gen consumer car a while off, that # doesn't have anything making it larger other than megapacks... which, while not nothing, also won't get you to to 10s of billions without many more factories than exist or are even under construction for them today.
I just realized that FSD is already good enough to start a robotaxi service today. It's a limited use case, but still a possible way to get started quickly.
The use case is for trips that involve a long highway journey. For instance, Macon is one of Georgia's largest cities. But the only major airport is Atlanta-Hartsfield-Jackson, which is about 90 minutes away by interstate. Today's FSD could easily take passengers from downtown Macon to the airport and back. I think that with some concentrated testing and bug fixing, today's V12 could make the trip reliably.
This kind of use case is currently served by busses. We also have busses that take passengers from the suburbs to the city center. Again, the drive is mostly interstate where FSD is quite solid. Plus, the origin, destination, and route does not change. So it would be possible to concentrate on solving for that route and go driverless in a relatively short time.
In the past, I've been thinking Tesla robotaxi would start just like Waymo got started. That is, optimize for a geofenced area in a city. But Tesla could go after these long point-to-point journeys where passengers currently use busses. And the service could be started with only some minor improvements to the FSD we have today.
I'm not saying Tesla will do this. I'd even say it's a little unlikely. But the fact that today's FSD is pretty close to being robotaxi-ready in a limited use case is, to me, very encouraging.
The use case is for trips that involve a long highway journey. For instance, Macon is one of Georgia's largest cities. But the only major airport is Atlanta-Hartsfield-Jackson, which is about 90 minutes away by interstate. Today's FSD could easily take passengers from downtown Macon to the airport and back. I think that with some concentrated testing and bug fixing, today's V12 could make the trip reliably.
This kind of use case is currently served by busses. We also have busses that take passengers from the suburbs to the city center. Again, the drive is mostly interstate where FSD is quite solid. Plus, the origin, destination, and route does not change. So it would be possible to concentrate on solving for that route and go driverless in a relatively short time.
In the past, I've been thinking Tesla robotaxi would start just like Waymo got started. That is, optimize for a geofenced area in a city. But Tesla could go after these long point-to-point journeys where passengers currently use busses. And the service could be started with only some minor improvements to the FSD we have today.
I'm not saying Tesla will do this. I'd even say it's a little unlikely. But the fact that today's FSD is pretty close to being robotaxi-ready in a limited use case is, to me, very encouraging.
I still truly hope this is wrong as I feel Tesla is mature enough today that it doesn't have to "bet the farm" on any one thing. Producing a consumer Gen3 car which is just an RT with manual controls seems simple enough to execute on the unboxed manufacturing line which Tesla showed last year. It's an efficient hedge to bolster the company while FSD continues to improve, which will take some unspecified time to accomplish. FSD might be solved this year, but it might be a few years out too, so to shoot the company's diversified growth in the knees to bet on one thing seems...unwise to me.
Yet we know Elon very much wanted to do this a few years ago thanks to the Isaacson bio. It is believable he might have reversed his reversal, knowing how much effort it took Franz and Lars to convince him the first time.
Well if Elon has cancelled the Gen 3 consumer car then hopefully he isn't sidelining other things like Megapack growth or Optimus progress too. We have no reasons to believe he's gone that far, but man I never thought we'd be having THIS discussion either. The Gen3 consumer car was a logical next step, to abandon it now would seem....insane to me.
Congratulation, you won most facile post of the year. Companies no matter how much cash they have don't like wasting money on under performing/un required staff.
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