Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Ellec]

Tesla puts '$25,000 electric car' codenamed NV9 on back burner despite what Elon Musk said

Electrek can confirm that Tesla indeed put its upcoming ‘$25,000 electric car, sometimes referred to as ‘Model 2’, on the...

electrek.co

Using a click bait "news" website as a source , well played that is conclusive proof!, why believe the CEO and the lead designer of the company when you have Fred! I hope you aren't making investment decisions based on your sources of information.

 

[insaneoctane]

Perhaps that low cost car that will blow people's minds is the Robotaxi?

Possible. Lowest cost RT is the one with the lowest TCO. Starting with a low cost car that doesn't need thousands of dollars worth of bolted on sensors, has the latest (most?) energy-efficient drivetrain and electrical system is certainly a possible mic drop moment for RT. Not to mention the geofenced approach of the competition. Now if only FSD were solved....

 

[Ellec]

Perhaps that low cost car that will blow people's minds is the Robotaxi?

Good point, how much cost savings is there from removing all the human drive controls and interfaces, hundreds of parts deleted, and ones that can fail or need maintenance. The RT is basically a body, drive train, wheels and a computer with a screen.

 

[Cult Member]

Good point, how much cost savings is there from removing all the human drive controls and interfaces, hundreds of parts deleted, and ones that can fail or need maintenance. The RT is basically a body, drive train, wheels and a computer with a screen.

Let me add this: '...with a screen for entertainment.'

 

[aubreymcfato]

I'd love this, but I won't get it

https://twitter.com/x/status/1781150076082999724

Here is what Elon needs to deliver, in black and white, on the call next week:

Do's:
- Outline plan to stabilize gross margin.
- Outline the plan to grow demand and vehicle volume in 2025-2026 (2024 already a write-off imo).
- Outline long-term product roadmap with a fair amount of detail on the $25k mass market EV. Where will they build it, and when. When is the reveal?
- Outline the progress on FSD. Provide some data, ffs. Give a realistic timeline and roadmap for future milestones on the path to autonomy. Give investors a roadmap. Outline possible risks and mitigation plans.
- Explain the vision for Robotaxi and how they view the business model.
- Explain the vision for Energy. Why has Lathrop ramp been slow? What are the barriers and opportunities.
- Explain the vision for solar. Is solar roof dead? What is the plan.
- Explain the progress on 4680. What are they key challenges that remain and when does Tesla expect to solve them. How will 4680 improve the vehicle business cost structure.
- WTF is happening with Semi? Why hasn't Nevada expansion started construction?
- What is the plan for Berlin? When will Tesla expand in Europe and what does that look like?
- Why the delay on Mexico?

Don'ts:
- Talk about interest rates.
- Talk about the economy being weak (it hasn't been and isn't).
- Talk about how hard everything is.
- Blame things outside of Tesla's control for Tesla's performance over the past 5 quarters.
- Tell us that CT's design was a mistake.
- Tell us that you don't have a crystal ball (it's your job to try and predict the future for your business).

 

[alexxs88]

why can't Tesla create a vehicle with a steering wheel and pedals? why take the all in bet on the software, regulatory approvals and consumer acceptance when a basic hedge would be to make the same vehicle with the controls?

I don't think they have the margins. They did the maths and it's not working out. This is supported by Elon coming out in January and saying that, unless regulators stepped in, Chinese EVs will eat everyone's lunch. Then in February the Reuters article suggests the project was put on the backburner indefinitely.

 

[JusRelax]

Looks like Tesla is rolling out the ability to be able to order food takeaway at limited supercharging locations in the UK. Tesla owners are able to order the food directly from their car's screen inside the 'facilities' submenu for those specific supercharging locations:

 

[Buckminster]

In a video by Solving the Money Problem, Stephen Mark Ryan focused on comments by Gene Munster in an interview that interest in EVs is down, you just have to check Google trends. Ryan did just that and found plenty of interest in Teslas but not so much in EVs of other manufacturers. For Lightning F-150 and one of the Rivian vehicles did worst.

It has been said previously. Could this be going better regarding USA and Europe market share? We used to hope for 20% but it seemed like a distant dream. Now it is difficult to see anything less. Is anyone confident of any company other than Tesla having >5% market share in 2031?

 

[Tachyon]

I'd love this, but I won't get it

https://twitter.com/x/status/1781150076082999724

Here is what Elon needs to deliver, in black and white, on the call next week:

Do's:
- Outline plan to stabilize gross margin.

We will even sell at 0 margins so that we can sell FSD

- Outline the plan to grow demand and vehicle volume in 2025-2026 (2024 already a write-off imo).

War is bad, rates too high, recession and depression right around corner, world is ending , everyone buy emergency supplies and a bunker. /s

- Outline long-term product roadmap with a fair amount of detail on the $25k mass market EV. Where will they build it, and when. When is the reveal?

We will be bigger than Aramco apple nvidia

- Outline the progress on FSD. Provide some data, ffs. Give a realistic timeline and roadmap for future milestones on the path to autonomy. Give investors a roadmap. Outline possible risks and mitigation plans.

FSD ready in 2 weeks

- Explain the vision for Robotaxi and how they view the business model.

Balls to the wall and anyone can do a pole dance in the car while car drives you around /s

- Explain the vision for Energy. Why has Lathrop ramp been slow? What are the barriers and opportunities.

Oil is good.

- Explain the vision for solar. Is solar roof dead? What is the plan.

We have new solar windows and solar potties that charge while you tweet. /s

- Explain the progress on 4680. What are they key challenges that remain and when does Tesla expect to solve them. How will 4680 improve the vehicle business cost structure.

Batteries or bust

- WTF is happening with Semi? Why hasn't Nevada expansion started construction?

They are everywhere , you just don’t see it

- What is the plan for Berlin? When will Tesla expand in Europe and what does that look like?

Ukraine bad. Russia good

- Why the delay on Mexico?

Waiting for the wall.

All in jest.

Don'ts:
- Talk about interest rates.
- Talk about the economy being weak (it hasn't been and isn't).
- Talk about how hard everything is.
- Blame things outside of Tesla's control for Tesla's performance over the past 5 quarters.
- Tell us that CT's design was a mistake.
- Tell us that you don't have a crystal ball (it's your job to try and predict the future for your business).

 

[MD70]

It has been said previously. Could this be going better regarding USA and Europe market share? We used to hope for 20% but it seemed like a distant dream. Now it is difficult to see anything less. Is anyone confident of any company other than Tesla having >5% market share in 2031?

If Tesla has more models, does focussed marketing I believe it can take a higher market share.

 

[Ellec]

It has been said previously. Could this be going better regarding USA and Europe market share? We used to hope for 20% but it seemed like a distant dream. Now it is difficult to see anything less. Is anyone confident of any company other than Tesla having >5% market share in 2031?

With FSD 100% of vehicles will be either a Tesla or have Tesla software. You might have the odd horse and cart around but insurance will be sky high.

No one is close to having the real world data/software/compute/experience for self driving that Tesla has. The gap will only increase as tens of millions of RT are driving around. Apple already gave up, other manufactures will and just license it from Tesla or face bankruptcy. The game is already over.

Well that's my thesis anyway if im wrong I guess no early retirement for me

 

[jerry33]

To put some context on this:
The average tenure I see of IT people is 2 to 5 years before moving on. The teams I manage now, my average is probably just about 4 years. My personal record for longest stay at a company is just shy of 9 years.

Tenure at Tesla for people reporting to Elon is fantastic.

For most, moving on in 2 to 5 years is the only way to get a pay raise.

 

[jerry33]

Looks like Tesla is rolling out the ability to be able to order food takeaway at limited supercharging locations in the UK. Tesla owners are able to order the food directly from their car's screen inside the 'facilities' submenu for those specific supercharging locations:


View attachment 1039881

Works if you want fast food and canned goods. Doesn't work for fruits and vegetables. (at least not in my experience with delivered groceries).

 

[Snerruc]

Please explain your maths.. I get (60min/hr)/(8min/CT) = 7.5 CT/hr …

8 every 10 minutes so 60 minutes in an hour. 6x8 = 48 per hour. You would have to ask him how he arrived at 8 per 10. I’m just the doofus. Of course I could have heard wrong too. Go look on UTUBE it’s still up. Also, they seem to me to come out in bursts.

 

[Thekiwi]

Long term investing is like this, and it is certainly not a 2.5 year timespan:

We are probably under that boat in the water right about now....

Always amuses me this chart. It’s funny, but relies on survivorship bias for the most part.

I look at CSCO and its ~2000 ATH. Almost a quarter century later, the company continued to execute as planned, but stock price never again reached its ATH.

 

[alexxs88]

Always amuses me this chart. It’s funny, but relies on survivorship bias for the most part.

I look at CSCO and its ~2000 ATH. Almost a quarter century later, the company continued to execute as planned, but stock price never again reached its ATH.

There are further examples from the pandemic hype trains. NIO is one that I followed closely. I tried telling them that if battery swapping was such an important feature that everyone wants, other manufacturers would've done it before. In the end, the stock dropped >90% from ATH.

 

[Usain]

Looks like Tesla is rolling out the ability to be able to order food takeaway at limited supercharging locations in the UK. Tesla owners are able to order the food directly from their car's screen inside the 'facilities' submenu for those specific supercharging locations:


View attachment 1039881

Awesome! This has been low hanging fruit for a long time. Tesla knows exactly when you will arrive at the Supercharger, so why not let customers order lunch to be hot and ready?

I don't know how much profit Tesla will be able to generate from this service, but it's so good for the customer. It makes the car more desirable.

When my friends skeptically ask how long the family has to wait for charging on road trips I would love to be able to say, "Long enough to watch Netflix while we eat the pizza we have waiting for us when we get there."

 

[Usain]

With FSD 100% of vehicles will be either a Tesla or have Tesla software. You might have the odd horse and cart around but insurance will be sky high.

No one is close to having the real world data/software/compute/experience for self driving that Tesla has. The gap will only increase as tens of millions of RT are driving around. Apple already gave up, other manufactures will and just license it from Tesla or face bankruptcy. The game is already over.

Well that's my thesis anyway if im wrong I guess no early retirement for me

Yeah, if you are looking for a quick turnaround for the stock then one FSD OEM announcement would do it.

 

[advocate8]

I don't think they have the margins. They did the maths and it's not working out. This is supported by Elon coming out in January and saying that, unless regulators stepped in, Chinese EVs will eat everyone's lunch. Then in February the Reuters article suggests the project was put on the backburner indefinitely.

So they did the math. And they thought the math on other products that seem entirely speculative -- or at best have entirely speculative timelines -- was better? Face it, major decisions are being made solely on impulse.

 

[Singuy]

Always amuses me this chart. It’s funny, but relies on survivorship bias for the most part.

I look at CSCO and its ~2000 ATH. Almost a quarter century later, the company continued to execute as planned, but stock price never again reached its ATH.

People always forget stock price is just one avenue in return. Cisco also pays a 3% dividend which caps it's stock value appreciation.