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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
The South China Morning Post is reporting that almost all of the Chinese layoffs are in the sales function rather than GF Shanghai. Doesn't square with a production reduction.
www.scmp.com
Tesla’s Shanghai production unaffected by Musk’s lay-offs, say sources
Only a few dozen employees at the Gigafactory 3 in Shanghai were told to leave, representing a tiny portion of the workforce of 20,000 assembling Model 3 and Model Y vehicles, say two people with knowledge of the matter.
www.scmp.com
Stuff like this makes it hard for any Western auto maker to compete:
BYD's new EV, starting at less than $10,000, is stoking fear across the industry
Leading EV maker BYD shook the industry after unveiling the new Seagull (Dolphin Mini), with starting prices as low as...electrek.co
No western company is trying to compete at the $10k price point. Japanese and Korean companies are not trying to compete there either.
There is a pretty significant difference between $10k and $25k.
BYD already has BEVs that serve the $25k price point in China. That is the competition that Tesla’s nextgen will face.
People like to point out BYD’s $10k cars to get a cheap laugh but what they really should be doing is looking at BYD’s BEV offerings in the $20k to $25k range. Those are not quite as funny
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Q - It's 2029 (5 years from now), is SpaceX planned to be launching to Mars by then? I believe they've been targeting that year for a launch window for quite some time.
Asking because Cathie Woods is saying TSLA should be $2000 in 2029. If SpaceX is launching to Mars with Tesla Bots and, potentially, people, I don't think TSLA at $2000 is that big of a deal, no?
Asking because Cathie Woods is saying TSLA should be $2000 in 2029. If SpaceX is launching to Mars with Tesla Bots and, potentially, people, I don't think TSLA at $2000 is that big of a deal, no?
I would guess that Optimus will be walking on the moon much sooner than in 5 years.
Osborning across price points tends to be exaggerated. Model S/X sales did not crater between model 3 reveal and launch. I “ve seen no evidence nextgen holdouts are affecting model 3/Y sales.
Osborning because of model updates or new body types on the same platform is much more common.
As soon as rumours of an impending model Y update leak, we “ll see the Osborne effect like we’ve never seen before.
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One poster just got slammed for posting no comments, just one meme. New - but really not - policy. Not unexpected from someone whose earbacks dried many moons ago, and whose principal reason for having created this thread was to have a Roundtable Discussion.
NO MORE POSTS that consist solely of a meme, or of only a meme plus that to which it is "responding."
And I wince even to have used the term "responding" in the prior sentence.
NO MORE POSTS that consist solely of a meme, or of only a meme plus that to which it is "responding."
And I wince even to have used the term "responding" in the prior sentence.
Tesla, especially Franz and Musk, have been adamant about not discussing future products lately. This forum continues to ignore the Osborne factor for M2/NV92.
IMHO, I think they are fed up with criticism regarding "missing timelines".
Agree.They’re not going to answer those questions.
For anybody who didn't see the whole tweet, the questions are below. I've also inserted my own prediction of how they'll get answered...mostly non-answers or answers that tell us what we already know.
- What is the status of 4680? What is the current output?
- Predicted answer: 4680 is rapidly advancing. The first production version of 4680 was used in the structural Model Y...[insert more discussion on that milestone here]. Since that time, we have iterated and revamped the production line to an updated version, nicknamed the CyberCell, with advancements optimized at our Kato road facility. We recently announced that production on that version had surpassed 1000 vehicle sets per week....[insert more discussion on the achievement and how Cybertruck is great]. We are in the process of bringing additional production lines of the CyberCell online...currently we have 1(?) line in production, X lines in pre-production and early commissioning, and Y lines well into the build process. We expect production to be up considerably in the coming months, while we also continue to make advancements in the cell design and manufacturing in our Kato road facility.
- What is the current status of Optimus? Are they currently performing any factory tasks? When do you expect to start mass production?
- Predicted answer: Chuckles from Elon, then: Optimus is going to be a great product, and our team is doing a great job of enhancing capabilities and reducing manufacturing cost. It's really a great product that will change the world....[[Insert discussion on how you even define an economy if the labor is nearly free]]. This isn't the right forum for discussing future production and uses of Optimus...we will have a special day for that later and it will be amazing.
- What is Tesla's current assessment of the pathway toward regulatory approval for unsupervised FSD in the US, and how should we think about the appropriate safety threshold compared to human drivers?
- Predicted answer: FSD is making great progress. The latest versions have seen a huge step [insert discussion about switch from 300,000 lines of code to a neural network]. We are currently no longer compute constrainted, so iterations will come more rapidly. And you know, sometimes it will be like 2 steps forward and one step back, but the steps will come quicker. I have been overly optimistic before [chuckles from Elon], but I am confident we are no longer at a local maximum and I can see the path to full autonomy clearly. And even once we are several factors safer than an average human, it will still take time for regulatory approval. [Insert discussion about computers being always aware and not distracted by phones or impaired by alcohol]. But, yeah, we are confident in rapid FSD development and the people using it can already see it is mind blowing and it will only get better from here.
- Following Tesla's Robotaxi unveil on 8/8, what is the realistic timeline for launchign a revenue generating robotaxi network?
- Predicted answer: This isn't really the right forum for discussing future products, but I'll just say it will take time for all of the regulatory approvals to fall into place even after we can prove that FSD is safer than a human, like 3-times, 5-times, one day 10-times. But the robotaxi design is really great and it will blow peoples minds. It blows my mind!
- What is the progress on the cheaper next generation vehicle?
- Predicted answer: So, again, this isn't the right forum to discuss future products. We'll make things more clear in August and will reveal the products and plans at the right time. [Maybe a discussion on media sources trying to piece together rumors and pieces of information, and getting it wrong...but no clarification on exactly what is wrong].
- What is gating the production ramp at Lathrop? Where do you see the Megapack run rate by the end of the year?
- Predicted answer: So, yeah, megapack is a great product. We are ramping Lathrop, as well working on a Megapack factory in China, and potentially others [Elon Chuckles.]. Really for Megapack we see quasi-infinite demand, so we are going to ramp as fast as possible...I mean, we have to get the battery cells, and we can only build and install them so fast, and it's all increasing very rapidly. And, we'll see the ramp being kindof lumpy because these are huge projects, and we don't count them until the project is complete and online...but, yeah, we'll ramp as fast as we can.
- Have any of the legacy automakers contacted Tesla about possibly licensing FSD in the future?
- Predicted answer: So, there have been talks but nothing concrete yet. Like we said, FSD is great and getting better all the time...no longer compute constrained, so that's going to get faster. One day, having a car without FSD will be like riding a horse. Sure, it will happen, but it will be like a niche thing. A quaint thing. And just for like safety reasons, everybody is going to have to do autonomy. But, so, Yeah, we are open to licensing FSD. We want to make the world a better and safer place.
Sudre
Active Member
I typically don't post much because ya'll get to it before me but just note, "190 miles (305 km) CLTC range". That is a realistic USA range of probably 150+ miles.Stuff like this makes it hard for any Western auto maker to compete:
BYD's new EV, starting at less than $10,000, is stoking fear across the industry
Leading EV maker BYD shook the industry after unveiling the new Seagull (Dolphin Mini), with starting prices as low as...
Tesla already tried to sell a low range Model S and no significant quantity of people wanted it (2013). That is probably the real reason BYD has no intentions of selling it in the US. One of my Australian friends talks about the BYD vehicles he has purchase but always about how he is hypermiling. I am sorry but that is only for us dogged EV owners. No typical driver wants to do that. I no longer wish to drive with the windows up for better aero, AC off for better w/m, and 55mph in a 70. It was fun just to see if I could get down to 225w/m but just for that one time. I have the battery to just drive however I want.
Also Nissan already tried to sell these low range EVs and they were not popular.... not 2M cars popular but they were more than $10k.
While I think BYD is strong composition it seems everyone forgets they roughly sell half hybrids (which I do not consider EVs) and half full battery EVs. That is NOT Tesla's mission.
Not related to BYD specifically, and more of a personal desire than an actual evaluation of the market, but I'd be very happy with a $10K or even $15K EV in the US, even if the range was only 150 miles. With the $7500 tax credit, even around $20K might be worth it for many, I think. In a way, I think this would be very useful for people who normally buy decent used cars, just need a car for local trips, and don't want to be stuck buying another ICE -- a new EV at used ICE prices. I also view something like that as a great second car, or a great car for an older relative, or a first car for the kiddo, etc. Kids are, of course, creative...but at least the shorter range, and a low top speed, and low acceleration, and low cost, would help put a cap on the amount of trouble they could get into.
150 miles with an LFP battery would still be very useful since you wouldn't be limited by the recommended 80% charge for daily use on other chemistries. And, of course, I'd want modern safety features -- that's the main advantage over finding a similarly priced used car.
And, honestly...even better if it's a Tesla and includes the autopilot safety features and an options for FSD
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It is just about a single supplier who will cut his supply by 30%. The article infers from that that Giga Shanghai is cutting production by 30%, too. Could be, could also be that they are replacing the parts with those from a different supplier.
This is the translation of the source cited in the article linked in the tweet:
copycats galore - they no longer want to share their secret sauce
If they give a non answer to number 5, the stock is heading south. Wall Street does not believe in FSD.
lafrisbee
Active Member
Honestly.
BYD could sell gigailions of $10k luxury electric vehicles in the USA if my town is the norm.
Greater than 25% of the homes around here have a third vehicle that is a "fast" electric golf cart licensed by the City's Police Department.
BYD could put a 2/3's smaller battery, and a cheaper power train in their $10k vehicle. Slap on a super cool plastic golf cartish exterior, and remove all the doors and windows, And safety features, And HVAC, and a bunch a other stuff. Put an electric governor on it and it would be the coolest, legally-permitted grocery-getter in town.
BYD could sell gigailions of $10k luxury electric vehicles in the USA if my town is the norm.
Greater than 25% of the homes around here have a third vehicle that is a "fast" electric golf cart licensed by the City's Police Department.
BYD could put a 2/3's smaller battery, and a cheaper power train in their $10k vehicle. Slap on a super cool plastic golf cartish exterior, and remove all the doors and windows, And safety features, And HVAC, and a bunch a other stuff. Put an electric governor on it and it would be the coolest, legally-permitted grocery-getter in town.
I fully agree that Wall Street does not believe in FSD.
But, I think Tesla/Elon have used the "a quarterly call is not the right forum to discuss future products" line before.
I think they can do that safely here, while re-iterating that development is quite far along. They can again say "don't believe all you read" without being specific, and I don't expect them to add specifics of whatever the current plan is for the timing or relative production numbers balance of robotaxi vs. less expensive consumer car.
I'm probably being optimistic, because the jouranlists/analysts do seem to know exactly how to hit the triggers that make the stock price drop, but I feel like the negative stories will be limited in effect if all they can really say is "Tesla didn't clarify and told us they'd talk about it later." Ha ha ha! Even just typing that hypothetical quote, I realize how unlikely it is that the stories would be so factual and tame
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For entirely different reasons I sold SpaceX almost a year ago. The reasons had nothing to do with anything other than the implications of the shareholding method. It just added too much reporting complexity for my two countries of residence.
I fully agree that Wall Street does not believe in FSD.
But, I think Tesla/Elon have used the "a quarterly call is not the right forum to discuss future products" line before.
I think they can do that safely here, while re-iterating that development is quite far along. They can again say "don't believe all you read" without being specific, and I don't expect them to add specifics of whatever the current plan is for the timing or relative production numbers balance of robotaxi vs. less expensive consumer car.
I'm probably being optimistic, because the jouranlists/analysts do seem to know exactly how to hit the triggers that make the stock price drop, but I feel like the negative stories will be limited in effect if all they can really say is "Tesla didn't clarify and told us they'd talk about it later." Ha ha ha! Even just typing that hypothetical quote, I realize how unlikely it is that the stories would be so factual and tame
This is a call like no other in Tesla’s history. All the indications are that Tesla has made a hard pivot to autonomy. Wall Street would want to know exactly what that means for the legacy auto business.
In my opinion, Tessa would better off just telling the truth; let investors know if next gen has been postponed or cancelled. If it’s canceled, some investors will bail but then it’s over and done with. I do agree that Musk will be non-specific in answering those questions and that the call will not resolve any of the major uncertainties around the company’s future direction.
I hope the call is not an hour of Musk telling us how hard it is to solve autonomy.
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